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How oil-rich Iraq ran out of dollars?

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Three years ago, Iraq was on the brink of expelling US troops, but now, Prime Minister al-Sudani asserts that his nation needs US and NATO forces. Although he gives ISIS as the reason, the dollar crisis in the country seems to be a more plausible explanation. The political actors backing al-Sudani blame the United States for the crisis but having to handle this crisis shortly, al-Sudani sees the exit in reconciliation with Washington.

The political turmoil in Iraq after the elections in October 2021 resulted in al-Sudani taking the seat of Prime Minister as a candidate of the so-called Iran-backed Shiite alliance in October 2022. in his first US interview since taking office, al-Sudani said, “we need the foreign forces to eliminate ISIS.” “Iraq would like similar relations with Washington to what Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf oil-and-gas producers enjoy,” al-Sudani told WSJ, “we strive to “see Iraq have a good relationship with Iran and the US.” Stating, “President Biden is different from other presidents in that he knows the situation in Iraq completely,” al-Sudani thinks it might be the foundation to build an excellent relationship between Baghdad and Washington. al-Sudani’s views regarding keeping the US and NATO forces in Iraq are deemed significant since he has been publicly silent about this issue until now. After the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike on Baghdad, the Iraqi parliament voted a resolution to withdraw American troops from the country. Currently, 2,000 American troops in Iraq under the umbrella of NATO are training the Iraqi armed forces.

According to Foreign Policy, al-Sudani’s public support for the presence of US troops originates from the threat of ISIS. al-Sudani’s words, however, are not an unexpected turn; instead, they reflect a steady movement toward the United States in recent years. The article’s title is also noteworthy: “The New Iraqi Leader tilts the scales toward the USA.” Former US officials told Foreign Policy that even amid the tension escalating after the assassination of Soleimani, Iraqi officials had expressed support for the US military mission behind closed doors to ensure to defeat of ISIS and counter Iranian influence. “US presence that was hanging by a thread in pre-pandemic Iraq, at the tenuous invite of the Baghdad government, now appears to be there to stay—indefinitely,” interprets the journal the situation that became concrete upon al-Sudani’s statement. Although al-Sudani created uproar in Iraq, the more significant problem is that Centcom has no planning or vision about the future of the US-Iraq relationship.

“The presence of foreign military forces in this country is a very dangerous issue,” remarked Nouri al-Maliki, the leader of the Shiite alliance that brought al-Sudani to the office and kept him in power. It is remarkable that Maliki’s statement followed al-Sudani’s controversial comment.

Then, why did al-Sudani express his public support for the presence of the US troops in the country “independently” of the coalition behind his power and despite growing anti-American sentiments in Iraqi society over the last several years?

The reason for the crisis: US sanctions

Sudani employs the existence of ISIS to justify his statement, but it seems that the underlying issue is the currency crisis that shook the Iraqi markets. Unlike other oil-rich countries, the second largest oil producer of OPEC after Saudi Arabia, Iraq stands out for its economic problems and the massive social protests these sparked. The current crisis, however, is not the same as the usual mechanism of bribery and corruption that plagues Iraq. It has everything to do with US sanctions. The restrictions put into practice by the US to prevent the illegal allocation of dollars for the interests of other US-sanctioned countries, especially Iran, have triggered a severe dollar crisis in the country.

The USA has implemented a “regulation” to the system that allows the daily foreign exchange auctions of the Iraqi Central Bank, which has been in effect for 20 years since the invasion and permitted banks to sell dollars without any restrictions. In November 2022, the US Federal Reserve (FED) started enforcing strict screening on the operations of Iraqi commercial banks, such as requiring all clients to disclose their identities before a transfer of funds could be made. In fact, these measures were implemented after almost two-year planning by the Central Bank of Iraq, the US Department of the Treasury, and the FED. However, in spite of all the planning, since the strict regulations have been in effect, more than 80% of daily dollar transactions have been blocked. As a result of the slowdown in dollar transactions, the markets have rushed into the dinar, ultimately creating a double-sided “currency crisis.”

Protests in rise

Due to the crisis, the value of the Iraqi dinar has weakened vis-à-vis the dollar, leading to a sharp rise in food prices. Over the currency drop, on January 23, al-Sudani dismissed Central Bank Governor Mustafa Ghaleb Mukheef on his request, and Muhsen al-Allaq replaced him. After a slight decrease in the exchange rate following the replacement of the office at the Central Bank, it has begun to increase again quickly. The official rate for Iraqi citizens set by the Central Bank stands at 1,470 dinars to the dollar. Established by the Central Bank of Iraq is 1470 Iraqi dinars per dollar, while on the black market and free market, it ranges from 1590 to 1620 dinars.

Iraqis slowly started to protest against the devaluation of the dinar. The protesters gathering outside the Central Bank called on the government to halt the depreciation of the dinar. Those demonstrating in Iraq called on al-Sudani’s government to do everything they could to bring down inflation. Mainly, they demanded that staples like eggs be made more affordable. Protesters from south Iraq also participated in the demonstration in Baghdad.

The ruling coalition blames the US

Hadi al-Amiri, the leader of the Fatah Coalition and a partner of the Iraqi government, accused the US of using the dollar as a weapon to starve the people in Iraq. “Since the reserves of this country’s central bank are at the Federal Reserve’s disposal, Iraq lacks economic independence. Everyone now knows how the Americans use the dollar as a weapon to starve people. The Americans are currently putting the most pressure on Iraq to prevent its relations with Europe and other countries of the world,” said al-Amiri.

Maliki, the head of the same coalition, claims that the United States uses the dollar as a global weapon: “They try to destabilize it by using dollar paper.” Maliki, however, sees the United States as the key to solving the issue: “There is no solution to the dollar crisis except by controlling the dollar and understanding with the American side.”

Here, the reason behind al-Sudani’s controversial statement that US soldiers are required in Iraq is nothing but Maliki’s proposed solution. al-Sudani is trying to find a way to ease the effects of the dollar crisis. In this regard, he plans to send the Foreign Minister to Washington at the start of February, followed by his own visit. The Iraqi premier may try to negotiate looser US screening on the movement of dollars or at least a postponement of such controls. As the Prime Minister of a coalition accused of being “pro-Iran” and even a “puppet of Iran,” al-Sudani may have hoped that sending sound signals to the United States would facilitate reconciliation. Against this backdrop, Foreign Affairs’s inference that the “The New Iraqi Leader tilts the scales toward the USA” seems an unrealistic expectation.

The dollar is indeed a powerful winning tool in the hands of the USA. The United States may offer the Iraqi government a short-term solution to the pressing crisis. The country is still nothing but one of the major oil producers, although the post-invasion system in Iraq is plagued by bribery, corruption, and smuggling. The greater challenge is that Iraq lacks the political will to combat the issue and blow the cobwebs away.

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Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say

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Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.

Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.

Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.

According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.

The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:

“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”

Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.

Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.

The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.

Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.

The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.

However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.

Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.

The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:

“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”

Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.

The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.

Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.

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Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes

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Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.

According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.

The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.

Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.

A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.

The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:

“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”

Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.

At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.

The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.

An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:

“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”

Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.

Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.

In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”

This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.

The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.

During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.

The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.

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Pentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds

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The US Department of Defense is facing a severe budgetary shortfall driven by the escalation of the war with Iran, according to current and former American officials cited by The Washington Post.

Officials noted that funding for several critical areas could be completely exhausted in the coming weeks. Budgets allocated for this year’s operations of the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed warships and aviation assets to the Middle East, are projected to run out by the end of July.

To cover the funding deficit expected before the start of fiscal year 2027 on October 1, the Pentagon is internally redirecting its budgetary resources. Under this approach, military exercises and training sessions designed to maintain troop combat readiness are being scaled back or canceled. Additionally, funds originally allocated for the maintenance and repair of military equipment and facilities are being transferred to operational expenses.

In recent weeks, the Department of Defense requested permission from Congress to shift $4.3 billion—initially allocated for personnel training and weapons procurement—to cover emergency requirements. However, no decision has yet been made regarding this request.

The White House has also requested that Congress allocate $67 billion in emergency supplemental funding to cover military expenditures. Despite this, the House of Representatives plans to begin a one-month recess on Thursday, which will delay any decision on the funding for at least several weeks.

“Everyone needs to look at this situation and shake off the complacency,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina, commenting on the development.

Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized the critical importance of defense funding, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will do everything necessary to maintain the combat readiness of the armed forces.

Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, are scheduled to present the justification for the funding allocation at an upcoming hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Russell Vought, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, is also among those scheduled to testify before the committee.

Vought stated last month that the cost of the war had reached approximately $30 billion. However, this White House calculation did not include the cost of rebuilding and repairing US bases damaged as a result of Iranian attacks in the Middle East.

Current and former officials warn that if Congress fails to act, military leadership will soon be forced to make even deeper compromises.

In closed-door discussions, Pentagon officials are expressing more profound anxieties. They emphasize that supplemental funding is urgently required to replenish munitions stockpiles, which are vital for deterring adversaries such as Russia and China.

The US defense budget for this year stands at approximately $1 trillion. This figure includes $150 billion in one-time funding approved by Congress last year for various priority goals, ranging from designing advanced weapons systems to stimulating the domestic defense industry. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027.

Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that when accounting for base repairs, the replacement of destroyed aircraft, and the replenishment of munitions stockpiles, the total cost of the Iran war could rise to between $80 billion and $100 billion, according to reporting by NBC. Sources state that the repair costs for US military facilities in Bahrain alone could reach $1 billion.

Senators are expected to question Hegseth on the collapse of the ceasefire, rising war costs, and the American service members who lost their lives in Jordan, Bloomberg reported.

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