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Beijing and Moscow could use SCO for counter-terrorism cooperation

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Terrorist attacks last month, one in Moscow and another a few days later in Pakistan that killed five Chinese workers, have raised alarm bells in Russia and China, key members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian security bloc.

With China set to chair the SCO from July, analysts say they expect Beijing to focus more on counter-terrorism in the region and encourage greater security cooperation among member states.

Analysts also believe the attacks will bring Russia and China closer together as they seek to eliminate foreign forces they believe are trying to destabilise the region.

Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia, told the South China Morning Post that while counter-terrorism has always been high on the SCO’s agenda, the recent attacks are likely to “refocus attention on this issue”.

Counter-terrorism to top agenda

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to reduce border tensions, the SCO has traditionally focused on fighting the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.

As the group has expanded to include India, Pakistan and, most recently, Iran, its scope has broadened to include issues such as economic cooperation.

Gunmen opened fire on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, killing at least 140 people in the deadliest attack in Russia for two decades.

Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish those behind the attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), an Afghanistan-based branch of Daesh.

Less than a week later, a suicide bomber killed five Chinese workers in northwestern Pakistan, the latest in a series of terrorist attacks in the South Asian country apparently targeting Chinese interests. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Russia, Pakistan and Iran, all members of the SCO, have suffered attacks organised by ISIL-H within their borders.

“Officially, counter-terrorism will be the main theme of the SCO,” said David Arase, professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies.

“If an actor outside Central Asia, such as Russia, is attacked, China and its interests in Central Asia may also be targeted,” he told the Post: “ISIS-H represents the ‘three evils’ – terrorism, separatism and religious extremism – that are China’s nightmare because it wants an Islamic state under radical theocratic rule.”

In the wake of the two attacks in Russia and Pakistan, the bloc may seek to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation through joint training exercises or increased intelligence sharing and coordination against armed groups such as ISIL-H, Arase said.

But it can be difficult to decide who does what within the organisation in an “environment of conflicting interests and mistrust”, Arase said, adding that tensions between some member states have increased.

India and China, for example, remain at odds over conflicting border claims and Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects. India’s relationship with Pakistan also remains strained.

Thomas Wilkins, Associate Professor at the University of Sydney, agreed that the fight against terrorism would be a “central theme” of the SCO and a “prominent” item on its agenda.

He said the terrorist attack in Russia ticked the boxes of terrorism and religious extremism, two of the “three evils” the SCO was established to combat.

Wilkins said the SCO already had a regional counter-terrorism structure for sharing information, and resources had been mobilised in response to the Moscow attacks.

Rapprochement within the bloc against the West could increase

In addition to an SCO response, the recent terrorist attacks could bring countries within the bloc closer together against actions they believe are backed by the West, analysts say.
Beijing and Moscow may call on SCO to cooperate against terrorism

Russian officials blamed not only Ukraine but also the West for last month’s terrorist attack in Moscow, claiming that US and British intelligence had helped Ukraine organise the attack.

“They are trying to make us believe that the terrorist attack was not carried out by the Kiev regime, but by supporters of radical Islamic ideology, possibly members of the Afghan branch [of the Islamic State],” Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said last month: “This is evidenced by the fact that as soon as the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall was reported, the West began to insist that Ukraine was not involved in the crime.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping has also repeatedly called on SCO countries to work together to prevent foreign powers from destabilising their countries by fomenting unrest.

“We must be extremely vigilant against foreign powers provoking a ‘new Cold War’ and creating conflicts in the region, and resolutely oppose any interference in any country’s internal affairs and staging a ‘colour revolution’ for any reason,” he said last year.

Experts say the SCO, which was created to resolve border disputes, has evolved into a Moscow- and Beijing-led organisation that provides security governance in Central Asia, where the threat of terrorism exists and could spill over into Russia and China.Beyond its institutional functions, the SCO also serves to keep Western powers such as the US out of Central Asia and to provide a common platform against “Western hegemony”.”Since its continuous expansion, it has formed a geopolitical bloc encompassing most of Eastern Eurasia, in contrast to the NATO bloc of Western Eurasia,” says Thomas Wilkins. The SCO was created in part to prevent “colour revolutions”, Wilkins said, adding that members continue to work closely to minimise such possibilities.

Li Lifan, head of the SCO Centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a convention signed by member states in 2017 to combat extremism showed a “firm determination” to fight the “three evils”, adding that the SCO will help deepen cooperation between countries.

“Today, the global security situation is complex and extremist ideas are constantly spreading. Terrorist activities and regional wars have formed a ‘double-active era’, posing serious challenges to regional national security and people’s safety of life and property,” Li said, adding that after assuming the chairmanship, China will not only strengthen regional anti-terrorism cooperation, but also tackle transnational organised crime and modern technology crime to “safeguard regional and even global peace and stability”.

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TÜDAV proposes Aegean cooperation between Türkiye and Greece

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As a result of the Athens Declaration on Friendly Relations and Good Neighborhood signed between Mitsotakis and President Erdoğan during his last visit to Greece, both sides declared that they were determined to maintain friendly relations and peaceful coexistence.

During President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s last visit to Athens, the stage was set for a crucial dialogue aimed at thawing the frosty relations between Türkiye and Greece. In a recent follow-up meeting in Ankara, Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis continue their discussions, focusing on enhancing bilateral cooperation, particularly in the strategic and often contentious Aegean Sea. This series of high-level talks marks a significant effort by both nations to bridge divides, address longstanding disputes, and promote regional stability through collaborative initiatives in the Aegean, heralding a new era of cooperation between the two neighboring countries.

However, previously both sides also gave the message that it was not possible to expect the controversial issues between the two countries to be resolved in a short time. Finally, Greece announced that it would declare 2 marine parks, one in the Ionian Sea and the other in the Sea of Islands, in order to protect biodiversity and marine ecology within the scope of the 9th Our Ocean Conference (OOC) held in Athens on 16-17 April.

In line with these efforts, the Turkish Marine Research Foundation (TÜDAV) has proposed that both countries work together to establish marine parks in the Aegean Sea. This policy recommendation aims to not only protect the rich biodiversity of the region but also to strengthen environmental and scientific collaboration between Türkiye and Greece, setting a precedent for cooperative governance of shared marine resources.

In its statement on the subject, TÜDAV argued that Türkiye and Greece should cooperate to protect the Aegean Sea. TÜDAV scientists stated that cooperation is needed to primarily protect the four conservation or marine park areas proposed in the Aegean Sea, emphasizing that the Aegean Sea is a sea whose biodiversity has been under threat recently due to factors such as pollution, overfishing, alien species and climate change. Prof. Öztürk believes that Türkiye and Greece, two countries with mutual coasts, should cooperate.

Reminding that the two countries signed a cooperation agreement on environmental problems in 2000, within the framework of bilateral cooperation studies that started in 1988, TUDAV proposes four marine protected areas in the Aegean Sea and proposes cooperation for the declaration of these areas and the establishment of a joint working group on this issue.

Map 1. Areas in the Aegean Sea that are proposed to be jointly declared as marine protected areas or marine parks by the two countries

Stating that according to the Protocol on Specially Protected Areas and Biological Diversity in the Mediterranean of the Barcelona Convention, to which both countries are parties, the parties should call for cooperation before one of the two coastal countries declares a protected area, TÜDAV points out that the two countries have the legal basis for cooperation.

TÜDAV Chairman of the Board and Istanbul University Faculty of Aquatic Sciences Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Bayram Öztürk said, “Sincere cooperation on marine protection in the Aegean Open Sea will benefit both nations. In this way, 30% protection of coasts and seas can be achieved by 2030. In 2013, Türkiye declared an area larger than the island of Cyprus, the Finike Submarine Mountains region, as a protected area. This area is the only open sea protected area in the Eastern Mediterranean and efforts are made to protect approximately 40 marine species. “The same thing can be done jointly in the Aegean Sea.” he said. Öztürk underlined that the Aegean Sea does not belong to a single country and said that cooperation should be made to protect biological diversity and living resources.

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US overtakes China as Germany’s biggest trading partner

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The United States overtook China as Germany’s most important trading partner in the first quarter of this year, according to Reuters calculations based on official data from the Federal Statistical Office.

According to the data, Germany’s trade with the United States, the sum of exports and imports, totalled 63 billion euros ($68 billion) in the January-March period, while the figure for China was just under 60 billion euros.

With a volume of 253 billion euros, China was Germany’s largest trading partner for the eighth time in a row, a few hundred million dollars ahead of the US.

“While German exports to the US continued to rise due to the strong economy there, both exports to and imports from China fell,” said Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer, explaining the change in the first quarter.

“China has moved up the value chain and is increasingly producing more complex goods itself, which it used to import from Germany. German companies are also increasingly producing locally instead of exporting goods from Germany to China,” Stamer said.

Germany has said it wants to reduce its trade with China, citing political differences and accusing Beijing of “unfair practices”. But Berlin has yet to take any major steps towards a policy of reducing dependency.

German imports of goods from China fell by almost 12 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, while German exports to China fell by just over 1 per cent, according to Juergen Matthes of the German economic institute IW.

“The fact that the US economy exceeded expectations, while the Chinese economy performed worse than many had hoped, probably contributed to this,” Matthes said.

Sales to the US currently account for around 10 percent of German goods exports. China’s share, on the other hand, has fallen below 6 per cent, Matthes said.

On the other hand, Dirk Jandura, head of the BGA trade association, said: “If the White House administration changes after the US elections in November and moves further in the direction of closing markets, this process could come to a standstill,” pointing out that the trend of Germany’s trade route shifting across the Atlantic could stop.

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BOTAŞ signs LNG deal with ExxonMobil

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Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said state-owned gas network operator BOTAŞ signed an LNG trade agreement with ExxonMobil on Wednesday in a bid to diversify its sources.

Bayraktar said in a statement on social media platform X: “The US is one of the important countries from which we already receive LNG. With this agreement, which is intended to be long-term, we will take another step towards diversifying our resources,” Bayraktar said, adding that the agreement was signed in Washington.

Noting that Turkey is among the few countries in the world with its gasification capacity, the minister said, “We will continue to contribute to the energy security of our country and our region.

Bayraktar gave no further details of the deal. The energy ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

In an interview with the Financial Times in late April, Bayraktar said Turkey wanted to “build a new supply portfolio” in energy procurement and said it was in talks with US fossil fuel giant Exxon Mobil for 2.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth about $1.1 billion.

Bayraktar said Turkey was also in talks with other US natural gas producers for LNG deals, stressing that Turkey wanted to “diversify” its natural gas supplies before some of its contracts with Russia expire in 2025 and with Iran in 2026.

In addition to Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, Turkey imports LNG from Algeria, Qatar, the US and Nigeria.

Russia is the country’s largest gas supplier. Last year, more than 40 per cent of its consumption was met with gas from that country.

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