Diplomacy
Beijing and Moscow could use SCO for counter-terrorism cooperation
Terrorist attacks last month, one in Moscow and another a few days later in Pakistan that killed five Chinese workers, have raised alarm bells in Russia and China, key members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian security bloc.
With China set to chair the SCO from July, analysts say they expect Beijing to focus more on counter-terrorism in the region and encourage greater security cooperation among member states.
Analysts also believe the attacks will bring Russia and China closer together as they seek to eliminate foreign forces they believe are trying to destabilise the region.
Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia, told the South China Morning Post that while counter-terrorism has always been high on the SCO’s agenda, the recent attacks are likely to “refocus attention on this issue”.
Counter-terrorism to top agenda
Founded in 2001 by China, Russia and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to reduce border tensions, the SCO has traditionally focused on fighting the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.
As the group has expanded to include India, Pakistan and, most recently, Iran, its scope has broadened to include issues such as economic cooperation.
Gunmen opened fire on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, killing at least 140 people in the deadliest attack in Russia for two decades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish those behind the attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), an Afghanistan-based branch of Daesh.
Less than a week later, a suicide bomber killed five Chinese workers in northwestern Pakistan, the latest in a series of terrorist attacks in the South Asian country apparently targeting Chinese interests. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
Russia, Pakistan and Iran, all members of the SCO, have suffered attacks organised by ISIL-H within their borders.
“Officially, counter-terrorism will be the main theme of the SCO,” said David Arase, professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies.
“If an actor outside Central Asia, such as Russia, is attacked, China and its interests in Central Asia may also be targeted,” he told the Post: “ISIS-H represents the ‘three evils’ – terrorism, separatism and religious extremism – that are China’s nightmare because it wants an Islamic state under radical theocratic rule.”
In the wake of the two attacks in Russia and Pakistan, the bloc may seek to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation through joint training exercises or increased intelligence sharing and coordination against armed groups such as ISIL-H, Arase said.
But it can be difficult to decide who does what within the organisation in an “environment of conflicting interests and mistrust”, Arase said, adding that tensions between some member states have increased.
India and China, for example, remain at odds over conflicting border claims and Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects. India’s relationship with Pakistan also remains strained.
Thomas Wilkins, Associate Professor at the University of Sydney, agreed that the fight against terrorism would be a “central theme” of the SCO and a “prominent” item on its agenda.
He said the terrorist attack in Russia ticked the boxes of terrorism and religious extremism, two of the “three evils” the SCO was established to combat.
Wilkins said the SCO already had a regional counter-terrorism structure for sharing information, and resources had been mobilised in response to the Moscow attacks.
Rapprochement within the bloc against the West could increase
In addition to an SCO response, the recent terrorist attacks could bring countries within the bloc closer together against actions they believe are backed by the West, analysts say.
Beijing and Moscow may call on SCO to cooperate against terrorism
Russian officials blamed not only Ukraine but also the West for last month’s terrorist attack in Moscow, claiming that US and British intelligence had helped Ukraine organise the attack.
“They are trying to make us believe that the terrorist attack was not carried out by the Kiev regime, but by supporters of radical Islamic ideology, possibly members of the Afghan branch [of the Islamic State],” Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said last month: “This is evidenced by the fact that as soon as the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall was reported, the West began to insist that Ukraine was not involved in the crime.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping has also repeatedly called on SCO countries to work together to prevent foreign powers from destabilising their countries by fomenting unrest.
“We must be extremely vigilant against foreign powers provoking a ‘new Cold War’ and creating conflicts in the region, and resolutely oppose any interference in any country’s internal affairs and staging a ‘colour revolution’ for any reason,” he said last year.
Experts say the SCO, which was created to resolve border disputes, has evolved into a Moscow- and Beijing-led organisation that provides security governance in Central Asia, where the threat of terrorism exists and could spill over into Russia and China.Beyond its institutional functions, the SCO also serves to keep Western powers such as the US out of Central Asia and to provide a common platform against “Western hegemony”.”Since its continuous expansion, it has formed a geopolitical bloc encompassing most of Eastern Eurasia, in contrast to the NATO bloc of Western Eurasia,” says Thomas Wilkins. The SCO was created in part to prevent “colour revolutions”, Wilkins said, adding that members continue to work closely to minimise such possibilities.
Li Lifan, head of the SCO Centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a convention signed by member states in 2017 to combat extremism showed a “firm determination” to fight the “three evils”, adding that the SCO will help deepen cooperation between countries.
“Today, the global security situation is complex and extremist ideas are constantly spreading. Terrorist activities and regional wars have formed a ‘double-active era’, posing serious challenges to regional national security and people’s safety of life and property,” Li said, adding that after assuming the chairmanship, China will not only strengthen regional anti-terrorism cooperation, but also tackle transnational organised crime and modern technology crime to “safeguard regional and even global peace and stability”.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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