Diplomacy
Britain, US near trade deal to ease Trump tariffs
According to officials in London and Washington, Britain and the US are on the verge of signing a trade agreement that would mitigate the impact of Donald Trump’s “day of liberation” tariffs.
The agreement, according to the Financial Times, would grant British car and steel exports lower tariff quotas. The deal, expected to be signed this week, would exempt some British exports from a portion of the additional 25% tariffs that Trump imposed on steel and automobile imports in February and March.
UK trade negotiators traveled to Washington this week for the final stages of talks. A senior British official stated that negotiations were proceeding “rapidly” but noted that disagreements over pharmaceuticals persisted.
In addition to offering quotas for its own exports, Britain hopes to secure reductions in the sector-specific 25% tariffs that Trump applied to cars and steel.
London will compromise but doesn’t want to undermine rapprochement with the EU
Among London’s “offers” are concessions to Washington on the digital services tax applied to international technology companies, reductions in tariffs on US car exports, and reductions in tariffs on American agricultural products.
However, the British government has stated it will not accept US food production standards, such as chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef. These standards could make it impossible to sign a veterinary agreement, which is a crucial part of Britain’s upcoming “reset” process with the EU.
The anticipated Britain-US agreement is one of 17 deals that the Trump administration aims to sign with major trading partners as part of a process to roll back comprehensive tariffs applied to countries worldwide on April 2.
To follow the Britain-India agreement
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in Congress on Tuesday that some of these agreements could be announced “perhaps later this week,” noting that several countries had made “good offers” but did not elaborate.
White House officials are also holding talks with Canada, Mexico, Japan, Vietnam, and India, as well as the EU. Some foreign officials have privately expressed frustration with the administration’s lack of clarity regarding how much tariff reduction it will offer trading partners.
If an agreement is reached, the US-Britain deal would follow the full-scope free trade agreement between Britain and India, which was announced on Tuesday.
Pressure is mounting on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to sign a deal with the US after warnings from the British car and steel industries that Trump’s tariffs would have “devastating” effects on their sectors.
British automotive sector dependent on exports to the US
Mike Hawes, CEO of the trade organization Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), warned that the new US tariffs were having a “serious, significant, and immediate” impact on the sector’s upper segment.
Luxury brands such as Bentley, Jaguar Land Rover, and Aston Martin are heavily reliant on exports to the US. According to the SMMT, the US is the UK’s second-largest car export market after the EU, exporting over 100,000 vehicles last year, valued at over £7.5 billion.
A senior executive in the automotive sector welcomed the possibility of reduced tariffs for Britain’s vehicle exports but stated that the primary goal should be the removal of the 25% tariff.
The executive said, “Applying quotas is complicated and hinders trade. The most important thing is the removal of the 25% tariff, because tariffs above 10% are not sustainable.”
Under an agreement with then-US President Joe Biden, London was permitted to export 500,000 tons of steel to the US annually tariff-free. This agreement was terminated this year when Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the US.
The trade association UK Steel warned that Trump’s tariffs would halt the sector’s exports, which were already under pressure due to a global metal surplus. In 2023, the US accounted for approximately 165,000 tons of British steel exports. This was valued at around £400 million, representing approximately 8% of the total value.
Since 2017, when Trump first imposed tariffs, the UK’s exports to the US have almost halved.
Two people familiar with the negotiations said the agreement had been delayed due to disagreements related to the pharmaceutical sector. Last month, the Trump administration initiated national security investigations into pharmaceutical and microchip products, which could pave the way for tariffs on pharmaceuticals, an area where the UK exported £6.6 billion worth of goods to the US in 2024.
British officials described the quotas offered by the US as “generous,” stating that Britain was trying to avoid the worst effects of future tariffs. A second British official was more cautious, describing the expected agreement as “limited.”
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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