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China’s exports to the U.S. and ASEAN surge ahead of Trump’s tariff threats

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China experienced robust export growth in December as businesses expedited orders in anticipation of higher tariffs expected to be imposed after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office next week.

According to data released by the country’s customs office on Monday, total overseas shipments expanded for the ninth consecutive month, rising 10.7% year-on-year in dollar terms. This growth rate exceeded November’s 6.7% increase and surpassed the 7.3% forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Exports to the U.S. increased by 15.6% year-on-year, reaching their highest level since September 2022. Similarly, exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc surged 18.9% to a record high, indicating that Chinese exporters might be rerouting U.S.-bound goods through third countries to evade tariffs.

The growth in outbound shipments spanned diverse products, including high-tech goods such as computing equipment and integrated circuits, as well as garments and textiles. Exports of steel, automobiles, and household appliances also saw a year-on-year increase of more than 10%.

December saw dollar-denominated imports rise by 1.0% year-on-year, reversing the decline recorded in the first two months of the quarter. This figure exceeded the 1.5% decline anticipated by Reuters. Consequently, China’s trade surplus expanded to $104.8 billion, up from $97.44 billion in November.

High-tech products led the import growth, climbing 12.8% from December 2023. This increase was likely driven by Chinese firms stockpiling advanced chips and electronic materials from U.S. suppliers amid concerns about potential trade restrictions under the Trump administration.

For the full year 2024, exports rose 5.9% to $3.58 trillion, while imports increased by 1.1% to $2.59 trillion, resulting in a record trade surplus of $992 billion.

At a press conference, Wang Lingjun, Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs, addressed concerns about the widening export-import gap and potential trade protectionism. “Some countries abuse export controls and restrict exports to China. We want to import more, but you don’t allow it, and then you are overly concerned about the trade surplus. This is a contradiction in itself,” he remarked.

Looking ahead, Lv Daliang, a spokesman for the customs office, expressed optimism about import growth in 2025, citing “ample room for growth.” Despite external challenges, Lv remained confident in the resilience and vitality of China’s exports.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported a 19.3% increase in vehicle exports for 2024. Internal combustion engine vehicles constituted 78% of shipments, while new energy vehicles (NEVs), which include electric and hybrid models, made up the remainder. NEV exports grew 6.7%, lagging behind the 23.5% growth for conventional vehicles. This discrepancy partly reflects new restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles imposed by certain governments.

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, warned that overall exports might weaken in 2025 if Trump’s tariff threats materialize. However, Huang noted that import volumes could recover in the short term as increased fiscal spending boosts demand for industrial commodities.

American importers have accelerated their purchases of Chinese goods in recent months, preparing for potential trade barriers. Trump, who previously pledged to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports during his campaign, announced plans to implement an additional 10% tariff on his first day in office.

Strong exports remain a bright spot for China’s economy, which continues to struggle with a property market crisis and deflationary pressures. The country’s consumer inflation rate fell to a nine-month low in December. Beijing began implementing stimulus measures in September to counteract the economic downturn, with their effects expected to unfold in the coming months.

China is set to release its fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) statistics on Friday.

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ASEAN and China deepen ties amid threat of new US tariffs

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On Thursday, ASEAN foreign ministers emphasized the strength of the bloc’s relationship with China as they sought to deepen ties with Beijing in the face of new “reciprocal” punitive tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump. Experts believe Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is bringing ASEAN and China even closer.

In his opening speech at a meeting in Kuala Lumpur with ASEAN foreign ministers and their Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said that China is “one of ASEAN’s most important and dynamic partners.”

“This relationship is built on mutual trust, common interests, and growing economic interdependence,” he said.

Wang echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the countries’ shared Asian identity and goals. “China has always seen ASEAN as a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy and sees the region as a pioneer in building a global community with a shared future for humanity,” he said.

The meeting was part of the annual Ministerial Conference of ASEAN foreign ministers. Following the meeting, there will be meetings with Japan, China, and South Korea, as well as with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other dialogue partners.

Addressing the ongoing geopolitical shifts, Wang noted that the current global turmoil and transformation raise questions of unity or division, peace or conflict, and cooperation or confrontation.

“We must learn from history, actively promote an equal and structured world order, and push the international system toward greater justice and equality by supporting inclusive and shared economic globalization,” he said.

Trade relations

Since 2020, ASEAN and China have remained each other’s largest trading partners, with total trade volume reaching $770.9 billion in 2024, a 10.6% increase from the previous year.

In May, the two sides announced the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 agreement after nine rounds of negotiations spanning two and a half years.

The upgraded agreement includes nine new chapters covering the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity. China’s Ministry of Commerce described this framework as a gateway to building the China-ASEAN mega-market.

Meanwhile, ASEAN members are preparing for new US tariffs set to take effect on August 1. The tariffs are set at 40% for Myanmar and Laos, 36% for Cambodia and Thailand, 32% for Indonesia, 25% for Malaysia and Brunei, and 20% for Vietnam and the Philippines. Washington has not yet announced an updated rate for Singapore, which was taxed at a 10% rate when the tariffs were announced in April.

Response to tariffs

On Wednesday, at the start of the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that trade is being used as a tool for “pressure, isolation, and control,” adding that “tariffs, export restrictions, and investment barriers have now become sharp instruments of geopolitical competition.”

In a speech to parliament on Wednesday, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani called for multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the UN, and the World Bank to play a more significant role in the trade war. “The role of these multilateral institutions has been greatly weakened and is not even respected,” she said.

Thailand announced $1.22 billion in mitigation measures. According to Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul, Thailand’s central bank is also expected to further loosen its monetary policy to reduce tariffs.

A draft of the joint communique from the foreign ministers’ meeting, seen by Nikkei Asia, describes unilateral tariffs as “counterproductive” and warns that they “risk exacerbating global economic fragmentation and posing complex challenges to ASEAN’s economic stability and growth.” The draft, expected to be released on Friday, affirms that ASEAN is “committed to working constructively with all partners to this end.”

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Chinese navy chief and top nuclear scientist expelled from legislature

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The chief of staff for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, Vice Admiral Li Hanjun, and Liu Shipeng, the deputy chief engineer of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation, were removed from their positions in the country’s legislative body.

Li is the latest in a series of PLA generals and a handful of defense industry executives implicated in a widespread investigation within the military.

In a statement on Friday, the NPC Standing Committee announced, “The Navy Soldiers’ Congress has decided to remove Li Hanjun from his post as a representative to the 14th National People’s Congress.”

The Gansu People’s Congress also dismissed Liu Shipeng from his role as an NPC deputy.

Additionally, the Standing Committee revealed it had voted to remove Miao Hua, a former top general who previously oversaw the PLA’s ideological work, from the Central Military Commission (CMC), China’s highest military command body led by President Xi Jinping.

The removal of Li and Liu from their NPC memberships suggests they are facing serious disciplinary action.

China typically remains silent about purges within the military, and announcements from the NPC are one of the few indicators of such campaigns.

There is little public information available about Li and Liu, as both have worked in sensitive positions.

Before becoming the navy’s chief of staff, Li, 60, was the deputy director of the CMC’s Training and Administration Department. He was appointed to this role after serving for a year in the CMC’s Office for Reform and Organisational Structure.

In 2014, he was promoted to vice admiral upon his appointment as commander of the naval base in Fujian province, where Miao also spent a significant part of his career. At that time, he was the director of training at the China Naval Command College and was soon promoted to president of the school.

According to official media reports, nuclear scientist Liu was born into a family that “served China’s nuclear dream for three generations.”

As the deputy chief engineer at CNNC, which oversees all aspects of China’s civil and military nuclear programs, Liu also served as the Communist Party secretary and president of CNNC’s “404 base” in Gansu.

Covering an area of over 1,000 square kilometers, the base was established in 1958 and is the country’s first and largest nuclear research center. It played a crucial role in the development of China’s first atomic bomb in 1964 and its first hydrogen bomb three years later.

This secretive base is still considered a key hub for China’s nuclear deterrence and nuclear industry.

According to statements from provincial authorities, Liu was named “Gansu’s outstanding entrepreneur” in 2023.

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China, US reach agreement on export controls

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The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday afternoon that Beijing and Washington have remained in close contact since the two-day trade talks in London earlier this month, confirming the details of a framework agreement.

“China will review and approve export applications for controlled items in accordance with its laws and regulations, and the US side will, in turn, lift a series of restrictive measures against China,” the ministry stated.

“We hope the US side will cooperate with China in line with the important consensus and conditions established during the conversation between the two presidents on June 5,” the statement continued.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the US had “signed” a trade deal with China the previous day, without providing details.

“We signed the deal with China yesterday, right? We signed the deal with China,” Trump said at a White House event introducing a budget law. “With the China deal, we are starting to open up China,” he added.

He also mentioned that a “very big” deal, likely with India, would be signed soon.

Rare earth elements

Following the event, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that the US and China had signed an agreement codifying the terms decided upon in previous trade negotiations.

“They will deliver rare earth elements to us,” Lutnick said in a televised interview with Bloomberg, adding that if this commitment is fulfilled, Washington will lift its “countermeasures.”

Rare earth elements, essential for producing high-tech products, including those for the defense industry, were a major point of contention in the trade talks. China holds a near-monopoly on the supply of these minerals due to its massive share of global refining capacity.

Responding to a question on Thursday about rare earth exports, ministry spokesman He Yadong said China had approved a “certain number” of applications and would “continue to strengthen” the review and approval process for eligible applications.

He added that Beijing is willing to “strengthen communication and dialogue” with other countries on export controls and actively promote appropriate trade.

Lutnick also stated that the US plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners in the coming weeks. The deadline for countries to negotiate trade terms before higher tariffs are reinstated was July 9, following a 90-day suspension of import tariff hikes announced on April 2.

The two negotiating teams concluded the London talks by announcing they had agreed “in principle” on a “framework” that both sides would take home for their respective leaders to review, as they sought to get their uneasy truce, signed last month in Geneva, back on track.

The negotiations began after a highly anticipated phone call between Xi Jinping and Trump, which seemingly ended an intractable stalemate.

In the weeks following the initial agreement in Switzerland, Washington claimed China was restricting exports of critical minerals, while Beijing reacted to US restrictions on semiconductors and threats to impose visa barriers on Chinese students.

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