Associate Professor Dr. Yang Chen, Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University, analyzed Beijing’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict, the perspective of Chinese academia, and the impact of these developments on China’s Middle East policy for Harici.

Following Israel’s attacks, Beijing’s initial reaction was to express its “serious concerns” and call on all parties to prevent further escalation.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on Friday that China resolutely opposes any violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, as well as any actions that “escalate tensions.”

“The recent escalation of tensions in the region serves no one’s interest,” Lin said. “China calls on all parties to take measures that promote regional peace and stability while preventing the situation from deteriorating further,” he added.

The spokesperson also emphasized that China is prepared to play a “constructive role” in de-escalating the crisis.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also held phone calls with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Israeli Minister Gideon Sa’ar. Condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran, Wang Yi said that at a time when the international community is striving for a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, this attack was “absolutely unacceptable.” He called for a “return to diplomatic channels to resolve the issues.”

Associate Professor Dr. Yang Chen, Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University, analyzed Beijing’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict, the perspective of Chinese academia, and the impact of these developments on China’s Middle East policy for Harici.

‘Beijing is willing to play a constructive role’

Recalling the statements of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, Yang Chen noted that China is deeply concerned about Israel’s attack on Iran and is extremely worried about the serious consequences such actions could have. Yang stated that China opposes the violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, and also opposes the escalation of conflicts and rising tensions.

He noted that China has urged all relevant parties to make greater efforts to promote regional peace and stability and to refrain from further escalating tensions, and is willing to play a constructive role in promoting the de-escalation of the situation.

‘Iran faces the threat of a color revolution’

From the perspective of Chinese academics, Yang stated that the fundamental conflict in the Middle East has now shifted from the previous conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran to the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Yang noted that since Trump took office, the struggle of containment and counter-containment between Israel and the “axis of resistance” [a term for an anti-Israel and anti-Western political and military alliance led by Iran] led by Iran has continued to escalate. He assessed that “the struggle between the anti-Israel united front and the anti-Iran united front will intensify.”

Stressing that Iran faces a major threat of a “color revolution” [a term used to describe protest movements, often accused by governments of being foreign-instigated, seeking regime change], Yang Chen said, “In this attack, Iranian hardliners were targeted and eliminated, dealing a heavy blow to Iran’s influence. It is feared that if Iran does not retaliate decisively against the Israeli attack, it will face a more dangerous situation in the future, its regional influence will be severely weakened, and even the stability of the regime could be jeopardized.”

‘China favors stability in Iran’

Yang said that China’s Middle East policy has always maintained its stability and continuity and will not fundamentally change despite dramatic developments. He explained Iran’s importance to Beijing as follows: “Iran is a country of strategic importance to China. Iran is at the heart of Eurasia, a key hub of the Belt and Road Initiative, an important source of China’s energy resources, and an important guarantee for maintaining stability in Central Asia and ensuring the security of Xinjiang.”

For this reason, Yang stated that Beijing wants Iran to remain stable. “China does not want Iran to be suppressed by the US and the West, nor does it want Iran to pivot towards the US and the West,” he assessed.

Yang also pointed out that Iran is facing major challenges in its domestic and foreign affairs, listing them as follows:

1) Economic stagnation

“First, economic development in Iran is stagnant. In 2024, Iran’s gross domestic product was $434.2 billion (equivalent to the economic size of China’s Shaanxi Province); this figure has still not reached the level of the decade from 2008 to 2017 and is far from its 2011 peak of $625.4 billion. The GDP per capita is approximately $4,500 (only 1/12th of Israel’s GDP per capita of $52,261); this has caused dissatisfaction among the Iranian people. Economic stagnation also prevents Iran from providing strong support to the ‘axis of resistance’.”

2) Nuclear negotiations

“Second, political changes have occurred in Iran, and a moderate president has taken office. On July 30, 2024, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was sworn in. As a moderate president, Pezeshkian expressed his hope to open a ‘constructive’ chapter in his country’s international relations during his participation in the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024, and stressed that Iran is ‘ready for dialogue with the West on its nuclear program.’ This also indicates that Iran is willing to negotiate with the West and renegotiate the ‘Iran nuclear deal.’ However, with the weakening of the ‘axis of resistance,’ Iran’s bargaining power to obtain sanctions relief from the West has diminished.”

3) National security

“Third, the internal security situation in Iran is worrying. In recent years, Israel has carried out a series of assassinations in Iran; these include Iran’s senior nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps leader Qasem Soleimani, and IRGC Intelligence Official Mohammad Akiki. In May 2024, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a plane crash. In July 2024, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital, Tehran, and Israel later officially claimed responsibility for the incident. This shows that Israeli and US intelligence agencies have completely infiltrated Iran’s national security system and can operate as they please in Iran, assassinating whomever they wish. Iran’s national security has failed to protect the lives of its own president, senior military commanders, key scientists, senior intelligence officials, and foreign guests.”

Stressing that Iran is currently facing great difficulties, Yang Chen stated that despite this, Tehran must adopt a stance of “not fearing great powers and challenges” in order to survive.

According to Yang, if Iran can prove its regional influence and resolutely demonstrate its anti-American and anti-Israeli stance, it can gain more external support.