Connect with us

Opinion

Developments in the Middle East and opportunities for Türkiye in a multipolar world

Avatar photo

Published

on

Multipolarity has begun to take hold all over the world at a pace that exceeds predictions. As an analyst who has been arguing for years that the unipolar world order under American hegemony would be balanced rapidly, I am happy to see that my predictions have not proven me wrong. Yet I must accept that I could not have foreseen that the effects of the new world order would emerge so rapidly in almost every part of the world. For example, many analysts, not just me, could not foresee that a considerable number of countries from many parts of the world would be so resistant to the impositions of the Collective West, either because they see the end of the US-centered unipolarity coming or because they want it to end. While I think/express that moving away from the U.S. dollar in foreign trade would be an expected development, I must admit that I did not expect it to be materialized in such concrete steps.

THE IRAN-SAUDI ARABIA DÉTENTE: CHINA’S DIPLOMATIC SUCCESS

One of the most important developments that I did not foresee was the starting of the comprehensive normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, thanks to China’s mediation. For decades, relations between Iran, on the eastern side of the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia, on the West Bank, have been an area of bitter rivalry. These tense and at times hostile relations were not a phenomenon that emerged with the Islamic Revolution in Iran. For instance, even in the 1960s and 70s, when both Iran and Saudi Arabia were very, very close friends/allies of the United States, relations between the two states were extremely tense and competitive. When the Shah of Iran wanted to build a large and powerful army, the U.S. told him, “Take what you want, except nuclear,” while Saudi Arabia, which was in competition with Iran in those years, continued to be America’s very close regional ally. While Iran under Shah established fairly close relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia was an active member of the Egyptian-led anti-Israel Arab Bloc countries until Nasser took a direct part in the Yemen civil war against it.

The Islamic Revolution (1979) further deepened tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates. During the Iraq-Iran war (1980-1988), which lasted eight years due to Khomeini’s policy of ‘exporting the revolution’, Arab countries, which had previously had disagreements among themselves due to many issues, came together to form a united front against Tehran. Despite Iran’s gradual abandonment of its regime-export policies after Khomeini’s death, and despite occasional efforts at normalization between Tehran and Riyadh, the crisis of trust between Saudi Arabia and Iran has persisted. The policies pursued by the United States after its invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran’s efforts to gain influence by interfering in the internal affairs of both Iraq and the Gulf Arab countries, made the crisis of trust between Riyadh and Tehran permanent. America and its allies, who want to keep the Iranian leadership under constant pressure, have done their best to keep this crisis of trust perpetuated. On the one hand, they have sold large quantities of arms to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates, while on the other hand, they have tried to bring these countries closer to Israel and create a common front against Iran by claiming that they are protecting them against Iran. Admittedly, these policies have served American and Israeli interests in the Middle East for decades.

The fact that the normalization of the Riyadh-Tehran line with the help of Chinese diplomacy seems to have a positive outcome, despite the fact that it is conditional on Iran’s non-interference in the internal affairs of the countries in the Gulf, especially those with Shia Arab populations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) and its willingness to compromise in the Yemeni civil war (this also applies to the Saudis), means that the order that America has established in this region for decades will be disrupted. Saudi Arabia’s move away from the U.S. dollar in oil sales seems to herald a completely different milestone. The first visible consequence of all this is that U.S. influence in the Middle East is beginning to decline. It will be necessary to keep a close eye on how this will affect Israel’s policies in the region, because even though the Arab countries that have normalized their relations with Iran are concerned about Tehran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, they will not act as Israel’s natural allies against Iran in the short and medium term.

AS SYRIA RE-ENTERS THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM…

Another area where the decline of U.S. regional influence and prestige, which is already a result that can be expected as the world evolves into multipolarity, is clearly seen is the Syrian issue. The Arab countries are normalizing their relations with Damascus one after the other; it seems that there are not many states in the region that take seriously America’s oppression and blackmail aimed at isolating Syria. Expecting Syria to join the Arab League in a short period of time is now a very realistic scenario. Almost no country in the region takes seriously the U.S. sanctions that condemn the Syrian people to hunger and poverty, and there is a global consensus that the Damascus administration has won the war, even though the U.S. and Western states do not officially admit it…

Türkiye’s comprehensive recovery moves in its foreign policy over the last two and a half years will enable it to adapt to the extraordinary developments and new balances in the region today. For example, if we thought for a moment that we were in tense/stormy relations with Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Syria, Greece and even France to the extent that we could enter an armed conflict at almost any moment, as in the second half of 2020, we would be extremely staggered by what happened today. We have taken relations with all the states except Greece and Syria to the point where they should be again, and we have clearly declared our will to normalize relations with Damascus.

The lack of sufficient progress on Syria, despite President Erdoğan’s repeated calls for normalization since early August 2022, may be related to the fact that some stereotypes in the minds of our institutions and senior officials have become obsessions. For example, the statements of senior officials such as the political settlement process, the new constitution, and the reconciliation of the opposition and the ‘Syrian regime’ reflect a perspective that does not want to accept the fact that Syria has won this war. Aside from the impossibility of imposing a new constitution on Syria, which has a national-unitary structure, it is not possible to understand the insistence on these theses when it is clear that even if such an attempt is successful, it will drag the neighboring country into a federal structure and will be the beginning of the division in a world where ethnic/sectarian federations are collapsing or cracking, and it will be possible for the PKK/PYD to become a state in the east of the Euphrates. As we discussed in detail in our previous article in Harici (https://harici.com.tr/suriye-ile-normallesme-hem-kolay-hem-de-cok-zor/), normalization with Syria is both very easy and very difficult.

It all starts with adopting a policy based on national interest and accepting the existing facts. When we put aside policies that are both wrong/erroneous and do not serve the national interest, such as imposing a constitution on Syria, the right options will emerge. In the normalization process, which has not progressed sufficiently due to the bureaucracy’s foot-dragging for months, at least the fact that top officials no longer insistently use poisonous/repellent words such as reconciliation between the regime, the opposition and the regime, the constitution and the political solution process can be considered an important and positive start. It seems that the problem is now centered on Syria’s demand for guarantees that we should withdraw from territory under Turkish control, as has been widely hyped in the media. This is again a question of whether to accept the existing facts. Since we have not gone to Syria to conquer territory, we should withdraw. The problem can be solved by setting a realistic timetable and integrating these regions into Syrian sovereignty step by step while Turkish security forces are there. If Türkiye adopts a policy of sending the refugees, jointly fighting terrorism on the basis of the Adana agreement (both the PKK/PYD and its derivatives and terrorist organizations against Syria) and ensuring that the TRNC is recognized by Damascus…

In a multipolar world, we will need nuanced foreign policies in the Middle East, as in many other regions. For example, to show that while we have good relations with Israel, on the other hand, we will not be part of the competition/hostility policies of this country against Iran or the ideological based anti-Israelism of the Tehran administration while we are in close relations with Iran… To establish as close economic and political relations as possible with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States while at the same time benefiting from their normalization process with Iran and trying to improve our foreign trade and economic relations with all these states… While expressing the legitimate rights of Palestinians and providing political/diplomatic support to the demands of the Arab states for Palestinians from Israel, to achieve this without breaking the connection with Israel… And to strive mainly for the Middle East to be a region of peace and stability, within which Türkiye will provide the most benefits in terms of trade and investment. A foreign policy based on these nuances will make Türkiye strong in the region, while isolating Greece and forcing Athens to gradually move away from its maximalist demands because of the decline in the power of the United States and the Collective West. There is no doubt that Türkiye has more than enough power and human resources to do so.

Opinion

India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

Published

on

Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

Continue Reading

Opinion

Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

Avatar photo

Published

on

In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

Continue Reading

Opinion

The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

Published

on

BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey