Europe
Europe quietly develops ‘Plan B’ military structures to bypass potential US veto within NATO
Despite mounting calls to establish a dedicated “European NATO,” politicians and military officials across multiple European nations are quietly developing sovereign military capacity options outside the structures of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
According to an analysis published by German Foreign Policy, these efforts are driven by deep-seated concerns that even a European-centric NATO—where European nations would provide the core command centers and weapons systems—could ultimately be blocked or paralyzed by the United States if Washington deems that the alliance’s activities do not align with its own strategic interests.
Consequently, calls for a “Plan B” have steadily intensified. In Scandinavia, defense planners increasingly view a robust Northern European defense cluster as the potential core of such an alternative strategy.
Simultaneously, the United Kingdom has been building the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) since 2014. Designed to be fully compatible with NATO but capable of operating entirely independently of it, the JEF maintains a comprehensive sovereign infrastructure at its headquarters in Northwood.
Recently, the ten member states of the JEF agreed to establish a joint naval force directed at countering Russia.
This restructuring comes amid growing criticism that NATO is operating under obsolete doctrines. European defense planners are now seeking to develop distinctly European methodologies of warfare, with a particular focus on drone and unmanned systems integration.
Sweden: The urgent need for a Plan B
Beyond efforts within NATO to increase reliance on European personnel and hardware—aimed at strengthening the autonomy of European member states relative to the US—discussions have shifted toward developing sovereign military capabilities completely outside the Alliance.
The primary driver of this shift is the apprehension that, in the event of an armed conflict involving European nations, Washington might not only withhold military support but could actively block NATO’s operational structures from being utilized.
Given that the US has historically dominated NATO—with key command structures organized around American leadership and built upon proprietary US technology—The Economist recently cited an insider source asking a fundamental question: “If America blocks NATO, what chain of command can be used?”
According to Luis Simón of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, the departure of the US would inevitably lead to a fragmentation of the existing deterrence ecosystem.
Nevertheless, several European armed forces are reportedly drafting confidential contingency plans detailing how they would wage war without relying on NATO’s command infrastructure.
The Economist further quoted a Swedish government official who summarized the prevailing sentiment: “We need a Plan B.”
A joint anti-Russian force emerges in Scandinavia
This “Plan B” is actively being negotiated, particularly among the Northern European countries.
Matti Pesu, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), noted in November that a “strong Nordic defense cluster” could form the core of this alternative framework.
Pesu observed that while European allies cannot fully replicate or replace US military might at present, “closer Nordic integration” could deliver a credible level of deterrence and defense.
Pesu, who has chaired the FIIA’s Nordic Network since 2023, wrote that the UK—with its operational experience and maritime capacity—and France—with its independent nuclear deterrent and expeditionary forces—represent natural partners for military cooperation with the Nordic countries.
Paris has already been holding discussions with several Northern European nations regarding the potential expansion of its nuclear umbrella.
Furthermore, Pesu emphasized the necessity of “deeper Nordic-Baltic-Polish coordination in foreign and defense policy” to establish a cohesive northeastern European alliance against Russia.
Five Northern European states have maintained structured military cooperation under the framework of the Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO) since 2009.
The UK’s anti-Russian military framework: The JEF
The British-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is frequently cited as the most mature, established, and operational alternative military structure currently available.
Established in 2014 and fully operational since 2018, the JEF is officially characterized as a force that is “not dependent on NATO but compliant with NATO.”
The force comprises ten member states: the UK, five Nordic nations, three Baltic states, and the Netherlands. Canada’s potential participation is currently under discussion.
The JEF is designed to intervene within a NATO framework, but it retains the sovereign mandate to launch independent military operations even when the broader alliance fails to reach a consensus.
To support this capability, its headquarters in Northwood, northwest of London, possesses comprehensive intelligence, planning, and logistical assets. It also utilizes secure communication networks that are entirely independent of NATO infrastructure.
Edward Arnold, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, noted that these independent capabilities make the JEF the most established structure among all proposed alternatives.
The JEF has already been activated multiple times, primarily for military exercises, but also to conduct active naval patrols in the Baltic Sea aimed at countering Russian maritime activity.
While the force maintains rapid-reaction capabilities designed for ultra-short-notice deployments, its primary operational focus remains Northern Europe.
Supporting NATO or operating independently?
In April, JEF member states took a significant step forward by agreeing to establish a joint naval force.
While these naval assets are intended to complement NATO, they are being structured to maintain fully independent operational capabilities.
Their initial objectives include joint exercises and coordinated contingency planning for emergencies. The naval force will be headquartered alongside the main JEF command at Northwood, from where forces will be directed as required.
General Gwyn Jenkins, the First Sea Lord and Chief of the Naval Staff of the Royal Navy, emphasized that these forces are designed to be “ready to fight immediately, if necessary, with real capabilities, real war plans, and real integration.”
Jenkins explicitly identified Russia as the primary adversary for the future JEF naval force, calling Moscow “the biggest threat to our security.”
However, defense analysts point out that both the naval force and the broader JEF framework still lack participation from key European heavyweights, namely Germany, France, and Poland.
While Berlin is currently concentrating its naval activities in the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic, observers remain highly skeptical that Germany would be willing to subordinate its forces to British command.
Obsolete NATO doctrine
In addition to developing operational forces independent of NATO like the JEF, European military commanders are beginning to fundamentally re-evaluate modern warfare doctrines, spurred by the war in Ukraine and the critical role played by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and autonomous robotic systems.
According to remarks made by General John Stringer, Deputy Commander of NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command, at a recent RUSI conference, “tactical-operational conceptual thinking” within NATO largely ground to a halt in 1991.
Military officials and policymakers increasingly acknowledge that the entirety of NATO’s core doctrine has become obsolete, and that many member states lack the advanced technologies required for contemporary high-intensity conflict.
The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that nations traditionally viewed as weaker can successfully mount strategic defenses against adversaries that are far superior by conventional metrics.
Consequently, European armed forces, utilizing direct insights and assistance from Ukrainian military personnel and specialists, have begun exploring entirely new approaches to combat.
The Financial Times quoted a French government official who suggested that decoupling from US military paradigms could offer unexpected advantages: “Less America means we can finally ask the question: ‘If we no longer have to fight like Americans, how will we fight?'”
Europe
Serbia’s Vucic criticises KFOR commander over Ibar Bridge withdrawal
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has reacted against the KFOR commander who decided to open the main bridge over the Ibar River in Kosovska Mitrovica.
Speaking to journalists during a visit to the new emergency department building of the health centre in Kursumlija, the President announced that he would write a letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to request that the main bridge over the river not be opened.
This step follows the decision by the Kosovo Force (KFOR) to withdraw from the main bridge dividing North and South Mitrovica after approximately 27 years.
The current commander of the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) is Major General Ozkan Ulutas.
Italian Carabinieri removed their tents on the northern side of the bridge, marking the start of a gradual withdrawal of the permanent presence of NATO-led international troops.
In a statement to German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, KFOR said that after the completion of the process, it would maintain a visible and strong presence in North Mitrovica and throughout northern Kosovo, and would “continue to contribute to maintaining a safe and secure environment for all communities.”
No statement was made regarding whether the Kosovo Police would take over the security of the bridge.
The newspaper Srpske novine had previously reported that Brussels had confirmed the necessary conditions for opening the Ibar Bridge.
Now, for the first time, a concrete written step is coming from Serbia’s highest official, addressed directly to the head of the Alliance.
“I will send a letter to Rutte this evening. So what can we do? We will fight as much as we can,” Vucic said.
Placing the Ibar Bridge issue within the broader context of relations with Pristina and the West, the President claimed that this was an attempt to exert pressure on Belgrade.
The Serbian leader continued:
“They thought everything was going in their favour; first they broke up Yugoslavia, then Serbia and Montenegro; now they want to separate Kosovo, which Serbia does not and will not accept, and they think they can use this to pressure us.”
Asked by a reporter about growing concerns among Serbs in Kosovo regarding the conduct of Albanian Prime Minister Albin Kurti, Vucic asserted that Serbs were being “harassed with unfounded accusations” and were subsequently not even allowed to prove their innocence.
“This is an act of terror; it stems not only from Albin Kurti, but also from his backers in the West,” Vucic said.
The President cited the case of Nenad Raskovic as an example. According to his claim, media outlets had reported for a month that this individual had been beaten over a gambling debt.
Vucic said hundreds of reports had been published claiming Raskovic had a gambling debt and was beaten by Serbs, but they later admitted to filing lawsuits against two police officers.
The President maintains that the admission that an investigation had been launched against two police officers over their conduct toward Raskovic refutes earlier claims that the beating stemmed from a gambling debt.
He also sharply criticised the KFOR command on this matter:
“What liars, what scoundrels. And the situation of those who support them and open the Ibar Bridge is even worse. Everyone is playing dumb, even the KFOR commander is playing dumb. Tonight I will send a letter to Rutte.”
It remains unclear whether the Serbian president’s letter will affect the timeline for transferring control of the bridge from international troops to the Kosovo Police. According to the Pristina administration’s interior minister, this process has already begun.
Europe
German investment in the US drops to three-year low in first half
German companies reduced their investments in the US in the first half of 2026 to their lowest level in three years.
According to Reuters, this resulted from firms limiting their exposure to Washington’s uncertain trade policies.
Calculations by the German Economic Institute (IW) show that direct investment in the first half dropped by roughly two-thirds year-on-year to 4.3 billion euros ($5 billion).
This marks the lowest level since 2023.
According to the report, which is based on Deutsche Bundesbank data, this figure represents a decline of approximately 80% compared with the same period in 2024.
“This is a continuation of the downward trend observed since the start of Donald Trump’s second term in January 2025,” IW researcher Samina Sultan told Reuters.
Since returning to office, Trump has threatened most of the US’s international trading partners with tariffs in an effort to extract concessions advantageous to Washington.
For instance, to avert steep tariffs on its exports to the US, the European Union signed an agreement last year that included an investment pledge of $600 billion.
Data show that during the five years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, first-half investments by German companies in the US averaged 15.8 billion euros. That figure is nearly four times the 2026 level.
However, Sultan noted that the 2020–2023 period was shaped by the “extraordinary circumstances” of the pandemic, with net investment outflows recorded in certain years.
Researchers also examined the composition of investment flows throughout 2025 and found that both direct investment loans and reinvested earnings were exceptionally high, whereas equity capital in the narrower sense—the balance between new investments and liquidations—remained below average.
“Consequently, companies already operating in the US continue to reinvest the profits they generate there back into the country. This shows that the US remains an attractive market overall,” Sultan said.
On the other hand, Sultan added that companies are hesitant to commit fresh capital.
European governments are also growing increasingly cautious regarding American investments in the Old Continent.
According to an assessment by The Economist magazine, while US firms do not hold a large share of overall investment in Europe, they are concentrated in critical sectors.
Two-fifths of the business that American firms generate from foreign governments comes from the IT and defence sectors, where switching to new suppliers is costly and complex.
At an aggregate level, the magazine estimates that American companies account for a relatively small share of public spending abroad.
Of the $25 trillion in sales generated by listed American companies last year, roughly $500 billion (or 2%) came from foreign governments.
This corresponds to approximately 7% of public procurement across non-US OECD countries, which account for the vast majority of that spending.
Some countries are more dependent than others. In terms of the volume of government contracts won by American firms last year, figures from data provider TenderAlpha show that Australia (6% of contracts) and the UK (4%) are more reliant than France (2%) and Germany (1%).
Europe
Iran weighs strikes on US bases in Europe if tensions escalate
The Iranian leadership is weighing the option of striking American military facilities in Europe should US President Donald Trump escalate tensions.
According to a report by the Financial Times citing two sources close to Iranian officials, Tehran has worked on potential strike plans targeting American facilities in Southeastern Europe. In this context, Bezmer Air Base in Bulgaria, used by the US military for aircraft refuelling, alongside Cyprus, which hosts British military bases, were listed among potential targets. Iran was also reported to have evaluated the possibility of attacking undersea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
The sources stated that in the event of a new conflict, Tehran could expand its strike range beyond the borders of the Middle East. One source said: “If the US goes too far, Iran will defend itself at all costs, go beyond the region’s borders, and strike Europe.”
The Tehran government has previously attempted strikes against long-range targets. The US announced in February that missiles were launched towards the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, while Türkiye stated in March that it intercepted Iranian-origin ballistic missiles in mid-air. The report noted that Tehran might find it more convenient to act through allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen rather than via direct action.
Iran accelerates preparations for potential major conflict
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing Iranian and Arab officials, Tehran has prepared a comprehensive plan against the possibility of conflict reigniting in the Middle East. Sources indicated that Tehran views the memorandum signed with the US in June as an attempt by Washington and Israel to buy time ahead of a new offensive.
Iran has been conducting preparations over the past two months against the prospect of an expanded conflict. The report noted that officials have increased Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps oversight of the regular armed forces, appointed veterans of the Iran-Iraq War to key posts, expanded counterintelligence operations, and accelerated missile and drone production.
Data from Arab intelligence services indicates that Iran also maintains contact with armed groups in Yemen and Iraq. Tehran’s objective is reportedly to raise costs for the US and prevent a recurrence of the previous conflict.
The Wall Street Journal sources also reported that Tehran expects attempts to instigate domestic unrest. Commenting on the matter, Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator, said: “Iran is ready for a major conflict.”
The war between the US and Iran began in February. The two countries signed a ceasefire memorandum in June, but the resulting agreement lasted only a few weeks. Following the resumption of hostilities, Iran maintained its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US continued its blockade of Iranian vessels and ports.
Negotiations for a new agreement are currently suspended. Trump stated that the US is maintaining negotiations and economic pressure on Tehran, adding that ending the Iranian nuclear programme remains one of the primary goals of the American operation. However, citing its own sources, Al Arabiya reported on 17 August that Washington and Tehran had extended the peace agreement.
-
Europe2 weeks agoEuropean carmakers turn to Chinese rivals to salvage struggling plants
-
America2 weeks agoOil industry lobbies White House to avert potential Trump export ban
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoFIFA confirms Infantino to stay as president after executive talks
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoColombian gangs infiltrate Ukraine to gain drone warfare expertise
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany lays groundwork for civilian alternative as conscription looms
-
Interview2 weeks agoWhy did Trump step back from a decision to launch a new attack on Iran?
-
America2 weeks agoUS and Ukraine restore intelligence sharing to former levels
-
Middle East2 weeks agoTrump’s Board of Peace drafts first Gaza base contract
