Europe
Europe quietly develops ‘Plan B’ military structures to bypass potential US veto within NATO
Despite mounting calls to establish a dedicated “European NATO,” politicians and military officials across multiple European nations are quietly developing sovereign military capacity options outside the structures of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
According to an analysis published by German Foreign Policy, these efforts are driven by deep-seated concerns that even a European-centric NATO—where European nations would provide the core command centers and weapons systems—could ultimately be blocked or paralyzed by the United States if Washington deems that the alliance’s activities do not align with its own strategic interests.
Consequently, calls for a “Plan B” have steadily intensified. In Scandinavia, defense planners increasingly view a robust Northern European defense cluster as the potential core of such an alternative strategy.
Simultaneously, the United Kingdom has been building the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) since 2014. Designed to be fully compatible with NATO but capable of operating entirely independently of it, the JEF maintains a comprehensive sovereign infrastructure at its headquarters in Northwood.
Recently, the ten member states of the JEF agreed to establish a joint naval force directed at countering Russia.
This restructuring comes amid growing criticism that NATO is operating under obsolete doctrines. European defense planners are now seeking to develop distinctly European methodologies of warfare, with a particular focus on drone and unmanned systems integration.
Sweden: The urgent need for a Plan B
Beyond efforts within NATO to increase reliance on European personnel and hardware—aimed at strengthening the autonomy of European member states relative to the US—discussions have shifted toward developing sovereign military capabilities completely outside the Alliance.
The primary driver of this shift is the apprehension that, in the event of an armed conflict involving European nations, Washington might not only withhold military support but could actively block NATO’s operational structures from being utilized.
Given that the US has historically dominated NATO—with key command structures organized around American leadership and built upon proprietary US technology—The Economist recently cited an insider source asking a fundamental question: “If America blocks NATO, what chain of command can be used?”
According to Luis Simón of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, the departure of the US would inevitably lead to a fragmentation of the existing deterrence ecosystem.
Nevertheless, several European armed forces are reportedly drafting confidential contingency plans detailing how they would wage war without relying on NATO’s command infrastructure.
The Economist further quoted a Swedish government official who summarized the prevailing sentiment: “We need a Plan B.”
A joint anti-Russian force emerges in Scandinavia
This “Plan B” is actively being negotiated, particularly among the Northern European countries.
Matti Pesu, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), noted in November that a “strong Nordic defense cluster” could form the core of this alternative framework.
Pesu observed that while European allies cannot fully replicate or replace US military might at present, “closer Nordic integration” could deliver a credible level of deterrence and defense.
Pesu, who has chaired the FIIA’s Nordic Network since 2023, wrote that the UK—with its operational experience and maritime capacity—and France—with its independent nuclear deterrent and expeditionary forces—represent natural partners for military cooperation with the Nordic countries.
Paris has already been holding discussions with several Northern European nations regarding the potential expansion of its nuclear umbrella.
Furthermore, Pesu emphasized the necessity of “deeper Nordic-Baltic-Polish coordination in foreign and defense policy” to establish a cohesive northeastern European alliance against Russia.
Five Northern European states have maintained structured military cooperation under the framework of the Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO) since 2009.
The UK’s anti-Russian military framework: The JEF
The British-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is frequently cited as the most mature, established, and operational alternative military structure currently available.
Established in 2014 and fully operational since 2018, the JEF is officially characterized as a force that is “not dependent on NATO but compliant with NATO.”
The force comprises ten member states: the UK, five Nordic nations, three Baltic states, and the Netherlands. Canada’s potential participation is currently under discussion.
The JEF is designed to intervene within a NATO framework, but it retains the sovereign mandate to launch independent military operations even when the broader alliance fails to reach a consensus.
To support this capability, its headquarters in Northwood, northwest of London, possesses comprehensive intelligence, planning, and logistical assets. It also utilizes secure communication networks that are entirely independent of NATO infrastructure.
Edward Arnold, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, noted that these independent capabilities make the JEF the most established structure among all proposed alternatives.
The JEF has already been activated multiple times, primarily for military exercises, but also to conduct active naval patrols in the Baltic Sea aimed at countering Russian maritime activity.
While the force maintains rapid-reaction capabilities designed for ultra-short-notice deployments, its primary operational focus remains Northern Europe.
Supporting NATO or operating independently?
In April, JEF member states took a significant step forward by agreeing to establish a joint naval force.
While these naval assets are intended to complement NATO, they are being structured to maintain fully independent operational capabilities.
Their initial objectives include joint exercises and coordinated contingency planning for emergencies. The naval force will be headquartered alongside the main JEF command at Northwood, from where forces will be directed as required.
General Gwyn Jenkins, the First Sea Lord and Chief of the Naval Staff of the Royal Navy, emphasized that these forces are designed to be “ready to fight immediately, if necessary, with real capabilities, real war plans, and real integration.”
Jenkins explicitly identified Russia as the primary adversary for the future JEF naval force, calling Moscow “the biggest threat to our security.”
However, defense analysts point out that both the naval force and the broader JEF framework still lack participation from key European heavyweights, namely Germany, France, and Poland.
While Berlin is currently concentrating its naval activities in the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic, observers remain highly skeptical that Germany would be willing to subordinate its forces to British command.
Obsolete NATO doctrine
In addition to developing operational forces independent of NATO like the JEF, European military commanders are beginning to fundamentally re-evaluate modern warfare doctrines, spurred by the war in Ukraine and the critical role played by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and autonomous robotic systems.
According to remarks made by General John Stringer, Deputy Commander of NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command, at a recent RUSI conference, “tactical-operational conceptual thinking” within NATO largely ground to a halt in 1991.
Military officials and policymakers increasingly acknowledge that the entirety of NATO’s core doctrine has become obsolete, and that many member states lack the advanced technologies required for contemporary high-intensity conflict.
The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that nations traditionally viewed as weaker can successfully mount strategic defenses against adversaries that are far superior by conventional metrics.
Consequently, European armed forces, utilizing direct insights and assistance from Ukrainian military personnel and specialists, have begun exploring entirely new approaches to combat.
The Financial Times quoted a French government official who suggested that decoupling from US military paradigms could offer unexpected advantages: “Less America means we can finally ask the question: ‘If we no longer have to fight like Americans, how will we fight?'”
Europe
German officials urge fighter jet alliance with Sweden and Spain
German Defence Ministry officials have advised Berlin to form a new fighter jet partnership with Sweden and Spain rather than join an existing UK-led consortium.
Internal ministry assessment notes obtained by Politico state that a trilateral arrangement among Germany, Sweden, and Spain represents a “more advantageous and promising” approach than joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) run by the UK, Italy, and Japan.
The proposal outlined in the document does not yet represent a final government decision, nor does it contain any indication that German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has approved the recommendation.
The advice was drafted after Germany’s flagship project with France to build a next-generation fighter jet collapsed in June following years of industrial infighting.
Initiated in 2017 and later joined by Spain, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) was conceived as a showcase initiative for European defence cooperation. The partnership aimed to develop an aircraft to replace Germany’s Eurofighter fleet starting in 2040.
However, the initiative foundered on disputes over operational control and workshare between France-based Dassault and Germany-based Airbus Defence and Space. Following unsuccessful rescue attempts at the political level, Berlin withdrew from the joint fighter project this year.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised the prospect of Germany joining GCAP during an 8 October meeting in Berlin with Friedrich Merz. The two leaders agreed that officials should continue discussions.
For Berlin, the choice carries implications that reach far beyond which model its air force will fly. The decision will determine who controls future military technology, which countries secure production contracts, and whether a new European partnership can avoid the frictions that dismantled FCAS.
Ministry assessment keeps distance from UK-partnered GCAP project
The ministry assessment listed several reservations regarding the GCAP project. The report argued that the existing programme focuses on operations beyond Germany’s capability requirements, whereas Berlin needs an aircraft better suited for missions over continental Europe.
The document also noted that German manufacturers would struggle to secure a significant share of development and production work within an already established partnership.
Invoking past experiences with the Eurofighter programme, which was developed in the 1990s and entered service in the early 2000s, the document took direct aim at British defence contractor BAE Systems.
The German Defence Ministry assessment accused BAE Systems of prioritizing exports over the development interests of Germany and Italy, warning that British dominance would prove incompatible with an equal partnership.
By contrast, the document stated that the military requirements of Germany, Sweden, and Spain align closely and that their starting positions are well balanced.
The assessment proposed an industrial partnership between aerospace giant Airbus and Sweden’s Saab, while recommending that the Saab-manufactured Gripen E fighter jet serve as a technological stepping stone until the new aircraft is developed.
The German Defence Ministry declined to comment on the matter. A separate ministry note, however, recorded British efforts to integrate Germany into GCAP as an observer or participant, asking German officials to examine potential industrial roles and military requirements.
An Airbus spokesperson said the company was “generally open to cooperation”, provided that German and Spanish industry secured a “substantial and equal role” across development, production, and operational phases.
“Purely political decisions without an industrial foundation remain insufficient,” the spokesperson said, urging authorities in Berlin and Madrid to clarify the path forward swiftly.
In an interview published in Handelsblatt on Monday, Airbus defence chief Michael Schollhorn pointed to ties with Saab, noting that the two companies have always worked well together.
A Saab spokesperson also indicated that the company is receptive to broad defence cooperation, including in fighter aircraft.
Emphasizing that large-scale collaborative projects are handled at the political level and that participation decisions rest with the respective governments, the spokesperson said: “All questions regarding potential Swedish participation should be directed to the Swedish government. Saab stands ready, as always, to support Sweden’s future fighter aircraft requirements.”
Europe
EU reopens debate on naming envoy for Ukraine talks with Putin
The European Union has returned to the idea of appointing an envoy to hold talks on Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Politico, this search gained fresh momentum following a visit to Russia by Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy.
During his trip, Witkoff proposed to Putin that Russia, the US, and Ukraine hold trilateral talks.
European countries, meanwhile, fear that Washington could accept terms unfavourable to Kyiv in negotiations that exclude them.
Sources speaking to Politico said the names being discussed for the envoy role include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.
Some European diplomats believe Finnish President Alexander Stubb may be the most suitable candidate for the post.
Stubb’s good relations with Trump and Finland’s experience in dealing with Russia are cited among the factors setting him apart.
An unnamed EU diplomat described Stubb as the only European politician so far to have demonstrated senior-level leadership.
Another group of diplomats argues that Costa should lead the talks. European leaders asked Costa during last week’s EU summit in Brussels whether the time had come to speak with Putin.
Politico’s source recounted that exchange: “Costa said no, saying he would not speak to Putin right now. But if we want to play a role in the negotiations, Costa still needs to initiate dialogue with Putin.”
According to an assessment by another source, the European Council president could serve as a more neutral mediator than von der Leyen or Kallas, who are seen as overly focused on supporting Ukraine.
“Three or four people cannot go there with each of us speaking on behalf of the European Union,” one of the sources told the publication. “Ultimately, the choice of who represents the EU must be based on maximum efficiency, not on a personal power struggle or someone’s narcissistic ambitions.”
Politico previously reported in January that the EU was considering appointing a special representative for Ukraine negotiations. At the time, the initiative drew support from several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Putin said he was ready to negotiate with European countries, but asserted that Europe had “no peace agenda” and stood “on the side of war”.
The Russian leader also named former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as Moscow’s preferred negotiator from Europe.
Kallas ruled out such an appointment, noting that Schröder was “a lobbyist for Russian state companies” and would sit “on both sides of the negotiating table”.
Stubb details obstacles to talks and Oslo diplomatic drive
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the principal obstacle to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine was the territorial issue.
Stubb took part in talks in Oslo with US envoy Steve Witkoff, who subsequently travelled to Saint Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin.
As reported by the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, Stubb stated that advancing the peace process required either bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine or trilateral negotiations involving the US.
The Finnish president listed the other major items to be addressed within a settlement as US security guarantees for Ukraine and the construction of a new European security architecture after the war ends.
Without stating it outright, Stubb implied that the core issue within this framework was Ukraine’s NATO membership. The Finnish leader pointed to monitoring the ceasefire, establishing the line of contact, ensuring energy and food security, and exchanging prisoners as practical tasks.
Stubb also detailed the talks held in Oslo on 20 October, which included Witkoff, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
The discussions, which spanned approximately eight hours across various formats, had three objectives: to lower tensions in public discourse, to convey European and Ukrainian proposals to the US envoy before his visit to Russia, and to determine the next steps toward a peaceful settlement. Stubb announced that these goals had been achieved.
Moscow ready to resume trilateral talks in November
Witkoff met Putin in Saint Petersburg on Wednesday.
Following the meeting, Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov announced that Moscow was prepared to resume trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine during the first half of November.
Ushakov also said that the EU and NATO had begun to “take a more serious approach” to Kremlin proposals on Ukraine, adding that “matters” were moving toward an end to the conflict.
Witkoff described the meeting as “constructive”.
Sources told Bloomberg in September that Putin continued to insist the Donetsk region must come fully under Russian control, expressing confidence that the territory would be captured within the next six months.
Putin previously set conditions for ending the war, demanding that Ukraine abandon plans to join NATO, maintain a neutral and non-nuclear status, and that anti-Russian sanctions be lifted.
Europe
Trump midterms calculus halts Israeli strike plan against Iran
A comprehensive military operation planned by the Israeli military for 10 October did not take place because US President Donald Trump chose to avoid a broad conflict before the 3 November congressional midterm elections.
Preparations had been made on the orders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an aerial bombardment meant to last several days, according to a report by the Financial Times citing sources familiar with the matter.
The list of targets included nuclear facilities and locations associated with the Iranian leadership, along with power stations and other civilian infrastructure sites.
The planned strikes were projected to exceed the joint operation launched by the US and Israel in February in terms of intensity.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told the newspaper: “The United States is not going to strike Iran at any point before the midterms.”
Kelly argued that the administration in Tehran was in distress both economically and militarily, adding that the blockade imposed on Iranian ports and US efforts to secure oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were producing results.
Speaking to the newspaper, one source addressed the possibility of strikes resuming in the coming weeks, saying: “There’s either going to be a deal or a strike.”
The same source reported that Washington aims for a comprehensive settlement that resolves the conflict over both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme, although it remained unclear whether the US would have participated directly in the cancelled operation.
Another source said the preparations for the operation might have served as leverage to pressure Tehran in negotiations, adding that the final decision on any new military step rests with the US president.
Hegseth reviews updated target list in Israel
An Israeli official said US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited Israel on 19 October to meet with Netanyahu and senior representatives.
Another source stated that the Israeli side presented an updated target list to its American counterparts, compiled with fresh intelligence and incorporating civilian infrastructure sites that had not been struck earlier this year.
The Pentagon did not respond to questions regarding the meetings, while Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli military declined to comment.
Despite the postponement of the operation, Trump and Netanyahu continued to issue military warnings to Iran in public.
In a video released on 19 October, Netanyahu addressed Trump, saying: “Donald, you said we need to finish this, and we will finish it together.” Speaking on speakerphone, Trump responded: “You’re a great warrior, and we’re going to prove it very soon.”
These engagements between the leaders coincide with critical election cycles in both countries.
Parliamentary elections in Israel are scheduled for 27 October, one week before the vote in the US.
Most public opinion polls in the country show the opposition bloc holding a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s coalition, though neither side commands a clear majority.
Axios, a US-based news outlet, previously reported that the Pentagon instructed military planners to finalize strike plans against Iran, though the directive specified no date and Trump had not reached a final decision.
On 15 October, CNN reported on plans to use the GBU-43/B munition, known as the “mother of all bombs”, against Iranian nuclear facilities, with US officials who spoke to the broadcaster expressing scepticism about the weapon’s ability to destroy deep bunkers.
While Tehran announced that it remains open to a diplomatic solution, it declared that any potential operation would draw a fierce response.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that if its adversaries chose military conflict, the response would be “much harsher than before”.
Following the joint operation launched by the US and Israel on 28 February, Iran retaliated by striking targets across the region and restricting maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although the parties reached an agreement in June covering a ceasefire and negotiations to lift the blockade in the strait, reciprocal strikes between the US and Iran have not ceased.
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