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MIDDLE EAST

First close contact on Lebanese border

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Hezbollah clashed with Israeli troops this morning for the first time since Tel Aviv announced yesterday morning that it had begun a ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Israeli soldiers were said to have been forced to retreat.

Hezbollah announced that it confronted and clashed with an Israeli force that tried to infiltrate into the town of al-Adiseh in the Merc Uyun district of the Nabatiya province in southern Lebanon, forcing it to retreat by inflicting casualties.

Despite the announcements of the start of the invasion yesterday, no ground attack by Israeli forces was observed throughout the day, while Hezbollah denied Tel Aviv’s claims, stressing that there were no direct clashes between the Israeli army and Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon.

On the other hand, Hezbollah announced that the military group at the Shumira barracks on the border with northern Israel had been directly targeted with a series of rockets.

The organisation also said in a statement that a large Israeli infantry unit in the Jewish settlement of Misgav Am on the Lebanese border was hit by rockets and artillery shells.

It also said that the settlement of Shtula, near the Lebanese border, was targeted by two Burkan rockets.

The Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot reported that sirens sounded in the Upper Galilee region of northern Israel and that rockets fired from Lebanon fell in an open area.

Another Hezbollah statement said a group of Israeli soldiers and artillery positions in the Kiryat Shimona settlement near the Lebanese border had been hit by a series of rockets.

Israel says it will attack 24 towns

The Israeli army has announced it will attack 24 towns in southern Lebanon, warning residents to move north of the Avali River.

Israeli army spokesman Avichai Adraee, in a statement on his X account, announced the areas where the attacks will be organised and said: “For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately and move north of the Avali River. Save your lives,” he said.

Adraee announced the areas where the attacks will be organised as Al-Bayada, Buyut es-Siyad, Er-Rashidiye, Mashuk, Al-Bes, Shubriha, Teyr Dibbe, Al-Bughuliye, Muhayyem al-Qasimiye, Nebi Qasim, Burj Rihal, al-Abbasiya, Muareke, Ain al-Baal, Mahrune, Bafliye, Deir Kifa, Sarifa, Arzoun, Dergheghiya, Dahr Bariye Jabir, Jabal al-Ades, Shuhur and Burj al-Shimali.

Andraee warned residents of the area not to travel south and urged Lebanese civilians to move north of the Avali River, claiming that Hezbollah would carry out attacks on military targets.

“We will let you know when it is safe for you to return to your homes,” Andraee said about the return of Lebanese civilians to their homes.

Israel’s attacks on Lebanon kill 1328 people

On 23 September, the Israeli army, which has been engaged in controlled clashes with Hezbollah since 8 October, carried out hundreds of air strikes on southern Lebanese cities, as well as in the Bekaa and Baalbek regions.

According to the Lebanese authorities, a total of 1328 people, including 104 children and 194 women, have been killed since 17 September, when Hezbollah communication devices were detonated.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Israeli air strikes on Beirut on 27 September. Hezbollah responded with rockets and missiles against Israel.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been internally displaced by the Israeli bombardment. While the wave of migration from the south of the country to the capital Beirut and the north continues, tens of thousands of people are reported to have crossed into Syria.

MIDDLE EAST

Katz’s statement on Hezbollah disarmament surprises even Halevi

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Israel’s new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace the recently dismissed Yoav Gallant, has sparked surprise with a bold declaration regarding Israel’s stance on Hezbollah. Katz stated that one of Israel’s primary goals is to disarm Hezbollah, leaving Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi notably surprised.

As Israel advances into southern Lebanon, negotiations continue in Washington and Beirut over a possible resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Katz emphasized that Israel would not halt its efforts until all military objectives are achieved.

“We will not cease fire, we will not ease pressure, and we will not support any agreement that does not fully achieve the goals of this war,” Katz declared during a visit to the Northern Command alongside Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi.

Katz outlined these objectives as: “disarming Hezbollah, pushing them beyond the Litani River, and ensuring the safe return of Israelis in northern areas to their homes.”

In the accompanying video, Halevi appeared visibly taken aback by Katz’s mention of disarming Hezbollah as an official objective, as this has not been publicly stated as a government directive.

Katz further stressed Israel’s right to “implement any agreement independently and to act decisively against any terrorist activity or organization.” He added, “We must continue to strike Hezbollah with full force.”

6 Israeli soldiers killed

Meanwhile, as Israel presses forward with its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, six more Israeli soldiers were killed in a clash with Hezbollah forces. This incident, one of the heaviest single-day casualties for Israel since the invasion’s onset, highlights the intensifying nature of the conflict.

According to a statement by the Israeli army, the soldiers, all from the 51st Battalion of the Golani Brigade, were killed in fire exchange with at least four Hezbollah fighters inside a building in a southern Lebanese village.

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MIDDLE EAST

Sexual harassment investigation targeting ICC Chief amid controversial prosecution

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has enlisted independent investigators to examine allegations of sexual harassment against Prosecutor Karim Khan.

The accusations against Khan surfaced as the ICC evaluated Khan’s request to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Finnish diplomat Päivi Kaukoranta, who leads the ICC’s oversight body, stated that an external investigation was initiated after reports surfaced that Khan had acted inappropriately toward a female colleague. Normally, such matters are managed by the court’s internal audit, but Khan personally requested that the Independent Supervisory Mechanism (ISM) oversee the case. Kaukoranta explained, “In light of the case’s unique circumstances, the ISM’s victim-centered approach, and the potential for conflicts of interest, the ISM agreed to the exceptional use of an external investigation.”

Khan denied the allegations, stating, “I have previously called for an investigation into this matter and welcome the opportunity to participate in this process.”

The investigation coincides with the ICC’s deliberation over Khan’s request to issue warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity related to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

While Khan’s move was supported internationally, it drew criticism from the Biden administration and U.S. Congress. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation that sanctions individuals affiliated with the ICC, including judges and their families, underscoring the U.S. policy of opposition to ICC jurisdiction over Israel.

Reports have also surfaced regarding Israel’s alleged threats toward ICC officials. In May, The Guardian revealed that Khan’s predecessor, Fatou Bensouda, was pressured in “a series of secret meetings” with Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, a close ally of Netanyahu. Cohen reportedly advised Bensouda to “drop the war crimes investigation,” allegedly warning her, “You don’t want to be involved in anything that could endanger your safety or your family’s safety.”

Khan has since noted he faced pressure before submitting his application for the arrest warrant.

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MIDDLE EAST

Trump will conditionally support West Bank annexation

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Former Trump aides have cautioned Israeli ministers not to assume Trump’s unconditional support for West Bank annexation in a potential second term, according to The Times of Israel.

At least two officials from Donald Trump’s previous administration advised Israeli ministers to temper expectations about Trump’s support for Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. Sources close to the discussions indicated that while annexation is not off the table, Israeli leaders should avoid viewing it as a “foregone conclusion.”

The message was delivered in meetings and discussions held in the months leading up to Trump’s recent presidential victory. However, some far-right cabinet members remained undeterred. On Monday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that 2025 would mark “the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]” following Trump’s re-election. Last week, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir also asserted that “the time for sovereignty has come.”

On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced Yechiel Leiter as Israel’s next ambassador to the United States. Leiter, a former settler leader, is known for his support of West Bank annexation and opposition to a Palestinian state.

In a statement to The Times of Israel, an anonymous Israeli official said Trump’s former advisers have not ruled out his potential support for annexation. However, they indicated it could jeopardize Trump’s broader foreign policy priorities, including countering Iran, competing with China, and ending the war in Ukraine. Trump would likely need the support of key Gulf allies—notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—to achieve these goals. Unconditional support for Israeli annexation, however, could risk backlash from these regional allies.

In 2020, Trump’s peace plan proposed annexing all Israeli settlements while leaving open the possibility of a Palestinian state in other areas of the West Bank. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu had hesitations, settler leaders and officials like Smotrich celebrated Trump’s recent victory as a chance to realize annexation plans.

A former Trump adviser told an Israeli minister that Trump’s support for Israeli sovereignty would likely come with more conditions than in 2020. After the Palestinian Authority rejected Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” proposal in 2020, the Trump administration and Israel began planning a partial annexation of the West Bank. However, this initiative was set aside when the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

The U.S. commitment to the UAE to delay Israeli annexation efforts expires at the end of 2024. Still, a former Trump official told The Times of Israel that a major shift in U.S. support for annexation should not be expected. “If any shift happens, it would need to be part of a process,” the official commented.

Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s former Middle East envoy, reinforced this message, stating:

“I think it’s important that those in Israel who are celebrating President Trump’s victory do so because of his strong support for Israel, as evidenced by many historic achievements during his first term. Some Israeli ministers are assuming that expanding Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is an automatic done deal and will happen as soon as President Trump takes office.

I suggest they take a deep breath. If I were advising these ministers, I would strongly urge them to focus on working closely with Prime Minister Netanyahu to strengthen U.S.-Israel relations and address the significant threats facing Israel. The time for discussions around Judea and Samaria will come, but context and timing are crucial.”

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