Middle East
Iran-Israel conflict escalates: What will happen next?
The Islamic Republic of Iran finally relented and fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. This operation was unexpected after the operation called “Wada Sadiq”, because many analysts believed that Tehran would not accept the risk of a direct attack on Israel for the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah. But that analysis went wrong.
Also, Tehran reacted quickly, perhaps with the aim of preventing a possible frontal attack by Israel. This operation is considered heavier than the April attack.
Although the number of missiles fired was small, because all the missiles were ballistic, they raised a lot of noises. All eyes are now on Israel’s possible response. The answer that is not far away is to widen the war between the two sides.
Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said that three important bases of the country (Israel) were targeted in Tuesday’s missile attacks on Israel under the name of “Sadiq Promise 2.”
The attacks targeted Mossad, Navatim and Hatserin bases, according to Fars News Agency.
“The three main military air bases of the Zionist regime [Israel], Mossad as the center of terror, Navatim Air Base as an F-35 air base and Hatzrin Air Base as a base used to assassinate Nasrallah were targeted by the IRGC’s missile attack,” the agency quoted Bagheri as saying.
According to him, despite Israel’s “repeated crimes,” Iranian forces have only targeted military bases in accordance with international standards. There is no information yet on the possible casualties and damages caused by the attacks.
Is there going to be a massive war; the answer is no for three reasons.
First – The Iranian attack was apparently focused on military targets. No civilian casualties have been reported yet. There is no information about the casualties of the soldiers. Military sites may have been damaged, but the extent of the damage is not yet known. Tehran has also been very careful in determining targets so as not to cause heavy losses to civilians and property, because in that case, the risk of a large-scale war could be increased.
Therefore, it can be said that the safety of civilians and civilian places will save Tel Aviv from a large-scale retaliatory attack that will lead to a large-scale war.
Second – There is serious ambiguity in the position of the United States. Although this country is determined and committed to supporting Israel, it does not give Israel the opportunity to start a massive war in the current situation. The reason is obvious, the US’s heated electoral climate. A full-scale war in the Middle East could be dangerous for current rulers, especially if an oil-rich country closes its oil pipeline.
Republican candidate Donald Trump, without condemning the attack on Iran, called Biden and Harris warmongers. In such a situation that the Biden government bears the costs of the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, does not want to bear the heavy costs of the war with Iran, so it is trying to make the possible response of Israel to be only an exchange of fire, not an immense war.
The most important thing is that, this time, Washington’s language is not too harsh towards Iran, it emphasized its support for Israel, rather than condemning Tehran.
America’s contribution in the field of missile defense was also not serious against the past. It raised questions about what caused many missiles to reach the target. Britain and France also did not participate in the destruction of the missiles. Jordan remained the same. Moreover, these countries had cooperated in the past to reduce the effectiveness of the “Wada Sadiq” operation. The non-participation of Jordan, France and the UK seems meaningful. It seems that diplomacy is involved; In other words, Tehran already had the consent of Washington. If so, it will obviously be difficult for Biden to admit. Of course, Iran claimed that it had not given the information to the United States as Tehran did last when it attacked Israel in April.
Third – Iran, without a doubt, does not want to be involved in a war with Israel, it was forced to attack its territory, because after Haniyeh was killed, the 14th government was severely criticized and the conservatives said that the current government is in line with the Democrats and is seeking to weaken the “resistance front” in the Middle East.
It is clear that the reformist government is currently discussing the “triangle management” plan with the US, and its implementation is the most important concern.
Of course, Israel is trying to thwart this plan. So, the success of the above plan warrants not going into war with Israel. When one side backs down, it is clear that the risk of a full-scale war is reduced.
The result of the attack.
1 – For Israel:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in a good position after the assassination of the famous leaders and commanders of Hezbollah and Hamas. Polls also show that if elections are held in Israel, his Likud party will win.
His political opposition groups also supported him. Netanyahu also tried to make gains for himself on the eve of the completion of one year of Hamas attacks, which apparently succeeded.
Now the attack of Iran is a big obstacle in front of him. A large-scale missile attack on Israeli territory by another country, especially on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Gaza war, could be damaging for Netanyahu, especially if he has yet to achieve his stated goals against Hamas.
2 – For Iran:
Iran, which attacked, naturally considers the results of the operation to be positive for itself. An attack on Israel’s territory by a foreign country since (1973) was a “taboo”; But this is the second time that Iran breaks this taboo.
Only in 1991 did Saddam Hussein’s government launch a limited missile attack on Israeli territory, which was not responded to by Tel Aviv.
Now that Iran has normalized attacks on Israeli soil, this can be considered a point of strength for it. That is, of course, if a possible Israeli response does not inflict heavy losses on Tehran.
Middle East
France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz
France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.
“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.
Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.
According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.
Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.
Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.
In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.
More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.
TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.
Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”
Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.
Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”
Middle East
Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school
Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.
The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.
This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.
According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”
Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.
A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”
The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.
School and military facility were located within the same compound
The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.
Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.
In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.
The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.
Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.
Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.
Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error
At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.
Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.
An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.
Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.
However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.
Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.
Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.
Middle East
US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.
According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.
The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.
In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”
Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.
The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.
Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.
According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.
The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.
The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.
On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.
Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.
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