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Iran’s attack in Pakistan: Any message for Washington

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The unexpected attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the territory of Pakistan has raised questions about the hidden motives of this attack; An attack that can indicate deeper concerns.

Some reports from the recent visit of General Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan to Washington indicates that the ground for a “complex deal” has been created between the United States of America and the Pakistani military.

Pakistan, whose economy has been fueled and improved by regional tensions for several decades, has long acted as a player to protect other interests in this region.

After the United States cut off financial aid to Pakistan in 2018 and the role of this country became less important for Washington, especially after the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan. Islamabad’s economic and financial needs were also not met by other regional players, including China, so Pakistan faced serious political, security and economic challenges. It is struggling and many believe that the country is on the verge of economic collapse.

Secret deal is on the making

On September 17 of last year, the American Internet magazine “The Intercept” reported, citing two informed sources, that during Asim Munir’s visit to the United States, a “secret deal” was made, including the payment of 700-800 million dollars by the United States to Pakistan for “supplying Ammunition for Ukraine.”

This news has not yet been confirmed by official sources. But due to Pakistan’s closeness to the West, especially the United States, close cooperation between Islamabad and Washington is not unusual. However, Pakistan also has its regional considerations towards Russia.

Also, according to reports, the United States, with its influence on international financial institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, has adjusted its positions to guarantee loans to Pakistan, in return for Pakistan agreeing to set up a “Shamsi” military base in its territory of Balochistan. It’s worth mentioning that this base is about 140 kilometers away from “Panjgur”, an area that was attacked by Iran.

US making efforts to take over Shamsi military base in Pakistan

Although a spokesperson of the US State Department said that Washington had no role in granting the IMF loan to Pakistan and that these negotiations were only between Pakistan and this organization and the US did not participate in it.

Another US media outlet, The New York Times had also reported in 2021 on the CIA’s efforts to take over “Shamsi” military base.

Pakistani newspaper (DAWN) also reported that US Deputy Defense Secretary David Helvey told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Pakistan had allowed the US to have military access to Afghanistan through its airspace.

It seems that the United States of America has long sought the reactivation of some bases inside Pakistan to achieve broader strategic goals, including intelligence gathering, but it is said that Imran Khan, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan had opposed this decision.

The United States pursues various goals by using the “Shamsi” base in Baluchistan such as monitoring “terrorist activities” in the region and Afghanistan. In this regard, it can be said that the cooperation between Pakistan and the United States of America regarding the intelligence and technical monitoring of the activities of the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) and the secession of the Baloch Taliban is a part of these goals. The activities of these groups have become a security challenge for Pakistan.

US, Pakistan, UK and UAE to stand against Iran

There is also a possibility that after the return of Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister of Pakistan to power who enjoys close ties with UK, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will raise Iran’s doubts about a “secret alliance” between the United States and Pakistan to “strengthen the information ring around Iran.”

Syed Asim Munir, the chief of Pakistan’s Army met with General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of joint staff of Iran’s armed force during his visit to Tehran last year.

Iran’s simultaneous attack on Syria, Iraq and Pakistan may be a reflection of the concerns of this country as a whole.

The activity of opponents of the Iranian government has created problems for this country. According to Iranian officials, the attack on Pakistan was aimed at countering Jaish al-Adl, firing missiles at Iraqi Kurdistan with the aim of destroying the Mossad spy base in Erbil, and attacking Idlib in northwestern Syria in response to the attack of the ISIS terrorist group in Kerman.

US under pressure to deal with Iran

Amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and Iran’s activities related to its nuclear program, the United States and its allies are becoming increasingly restless and the pressure on the Biden administration is increasing. On the eve of the presidential election of this country, Biden has been accused by his electoral rivals of appeasing Iran and ignoring terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

On the other hand, the politicians of the United States, UK, Israel and their allies present Iran as a supporter of movements that threaten the interests of the United States and its allies in the region and liken Iran to a “snake’s head” that must be dealt with.

Considering the mentioned concerns, Iran’s attack on Iraq, Syria and of course Pakistan can be considered as a “deterrent and warning.” To what extent Iran had predicted Pakistan’s reaction is a point worth pondering. But this act of attack inside Pakistan’s soil and near the Shamsi base can be considered important at least as a message to America.

Iran and Pakistan acting wisely to ease tensions

Now it should be seen whether the current disputes and confrontations can end here or it will intensify the attacks of the representative groups of the two countries inside each other’s territory. The complex geopolitical landscape is based on the complexities of regional dynamics and the delicate balance of power.

Just two days ago, gunmen killed nine Pakistani nationals in the southeastern border area of Iran. This comes from efforts by the two sides to mend ties after recent tit-for-tat attacks.

Pakistani ambassador to Iran, Muhammad Mudassir Tipi had expressed shock by “by horrifying killing” of nine Pakistanis in Saravan.

He called on the government of Iran to extend full cooperation in the matter.

Iranian media reported the attack on Sarvan in Sistan-Baluchestan province and identified the dead as foreign nationals.

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‘Turkey-Syria negotiations to be held in Baghdad’

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The Syrian daily al-Watan reports that the first round of talks between Syria and Turkey to normalise bilateral relations will take place in Baghdad.

Turkish and Syrian officials are expected to meet in the Iraqi capital Baghdad to restore diplomatic relations between Syria and Turkey, which were severed more than 12 years ago, after President Erdogan said there was “no reason not to meet with Syria”.

Press TV quoted an unnamed official as saying that the meeting would be the first step in a long process of negotiations leading to a political agreement, al-Watan reported.

According to the sources, Ankara has asked Moscow and Baghdad to pave the way for Turkish diplomats to sit at the negotiating table with the Syrian side without a third party. They also asked that the meetings be closed to the press.

Al-Watan noted that the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement and the initiative to restore diplomatic relations have received wide support from Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Russia, China and Iran.

Mutual statements

President Erdoğan said on Friday: “There is no reason not to re-establish diplomatic relations with Syria. We can do it again as we did in the past. We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs. As you know, there is no reason why we should not re-establish diplomatic relations with Mr Assad, as we did in the past, down to family meetings”.

During a meeting with Russia’s special envoy to Syria, Aleksander Lavrentiev, in Damascus on 26 June, Syrian leader Assad said he was open to initiatives to normalise relations with Turkey.

“Syria is open to all attempts to normalise Syrian-Turkish relations on the basis of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state and within the framework of the fight against all forms of terrorism,” SANA quoted Assad as saying.

New mediator Iraq

While Turkish-Iraqi relations are developing positively, Baghdad’s mediation role in the normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations is attracting attention. On 31 May, during a visit to Turkey, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani said that he was working on reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus. Asked if he had spoken to Erdogan or Assad about this issue, Sudani replied: “Certainly, negotiations on this issue are continuing. And God willing, there will be some steps in this regard soon”.

In June, an Iraqi government source told Iraqi media that Baghdad would soon host officials from both countries in Baghdad as part of efforts to reconcile Syria and Turkey.

What happened?

Turkey severed all diplomatic ties with Syria in 2012 following the outbreak of war in 2011 and supported armed opposition groups in the northwest of the country.

Since 2016, Turkish forces have carried out a series of military operations and established a ‘safe zone’ in the north of the country, claiming that terrorist organisations such as PKK-ISIS threaten Turkey’s security.

The normalisation of relations between Ankara and Damascus began on 28 December 2022 with a Russian-mediated meeting between the Turkish and Syrian defence ministers in Moscow, the highest-level meeting between the two sides since 2011.

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Imran Khan accuses Pakistan army chief of cover-up of assassination plot against him

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Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan has stepped up his criticism of Pakistani army chief Asim Munir’s attempt to seize political power from his prison cell, The Intercept reports, citing several sources close to Khan.

The report also contains new allegations about Khan’s history with Munir. According to those in contact with the detained prime minister, Khan is making new allegations that he violated an agreement to remain neutral in Pakistani politics in exchange for accepting Munir’s appointment as army chief.

The deposed prime minister also claims that Munir conspired with his civilian political rivals, including former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, to work against him in exchange for dropping corruption charges that forced Sharif into exile.

According to the report, the escalating personal conflict between Khan and Munir is also an important part of the dialogue. Khan alleges that Munir ordered agents of Pakistan’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence to kill him, and that the general covered up the assassination attempts by suppressing a police investigation and hiding CCTV footage.

While Khan’s fate remains the biggest unanswered question in the country’s politics, prison communiqués allegedly show that the situation was fuelled by animosity between Khan and Munir.

Khan’s allegations against Munir were shared with The Intercept by a number of sources close to him, who requested anonymity to protect their safety.

The correspondence allegedly includes surveillance footage and other evidence that Munir hatched a plan to have Khan killed in a raucous courtroom on 18 March 2023.

According to sources close to the former prime minister, Khan accused Munir of covering up the plot against him.

Among Khan’s supporters who believe his personal safety is at risk are Pakistani-Americans who recently lobbied Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to contact the Pakistani government about his safety.

As well as accusing Munir of betraying his trust and plotting to kill him, Khan has repeatedly claimed from prison that the general is leading the country towards a repeat of the traumatic partition of 1971.

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Israeli, Arab generals hold secret meeting

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Israeli Chief of Staff Hayzi Halevi met with his counterparts from various Arab armies in Bahrain to discuss regional security cooperation, two sources with direct knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

The meeting, which took place under the auspices of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), was not made public due to sensitivities surrounding the war in Gaza.

The meeting, which took place in Manama on Monday, was attended by CENTCOM commander Michael Erik Kurilla and Halevi, as well as senior generals from Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.

According to Barak Ravid’s report, the meeting was a sign that military dialogue and cooperation between Israel and the Arab countries continues under the umbrella of CENTCOM, despite harsh public criticism of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

The IDF and CENTCOM did not comment on the meeting.

CENTCOM and the Pentagon have recently sought to increase air defence cooperation with regional militaries.

The US success in countering Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel on 13 April is seen as a result of this work.

US officials say that cooperation with Israel and Arab countries in the region allows them to gather intelligence and receive early warning of an attack. This cooperation includes the active involvement of Jordan and Saudi Arabia in intercepting missiles and drones that pass through their airspace after being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq and Yemen, they said.

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