According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Israel should adjust its future policies to the “emerging reality”, considering “anti-Israel trends in the US”. According to an analysis published by the institute, the new reality has the potential to lead to significant erosion in United States-Israel relations.

In Tel Aviv, which failed to please the U.S. and Russia at the same time in the Ukrainian crisis, negative prospects for the future are increasing in relations with the United States. Tel Aviv’s relations with Russia, China and the non-Western world are handled within the frame of “rapprochement with the illiberal world” from the perspective of the U.S. established order. Developments in U.S. public opinion also reinforce skeptical approaches towards Washington in Israel.

‘Neutrality’ in Ukraine dismay Washington

Israel’s future government, which decided not to provide high-tech weapons to Kiev, is already facing pressure to “sell weapons.” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called Former Prime Minister Netanyahu, who won the elections, and reiterated his request for weapons from Israel. Zelensky, who claims that Iranian drones were used by Russia, urges Israel to stand up against Iran on the Ukrainian issue. To date, Tel Aviv has not given the green light to this call, citing the challenge of its own security equation. Israel, which freely strikes the regions it declared as “Iran’s target” in Syria, won’t want to encounter Russia on this field.

Iran and Syria directly support organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, their military actions and fight against Israel. Acting with the great support of Iran, this broad block defines itself as the “axis of resistance”.

Although the “axis of resistance” is disempowered by the Arab Spring, it is still standing. Syrian-Hamas relations, which deteriorated with the Syrian war, also recovered in October. A senior Hamas official visited Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Regional states have stopped stirring the sectarian cauldron where they poured gasoline over the past decade. Considering all this, forcing Russia to oppose the Middle East does not serve the security interests of Israel.

Subtle message via Golan

The fact that Russian and Syrian fighter jets conducted a joint aerial patrol over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights gives insight into Tel Aviv’s relatively neutral policy to date. Moscow told Tel Aviv, “If you supply weapons to Ukraine regime, we may take steps that will put you in difficulty with Syria about Golan that you are occupying and that is considered part of Syria according to the UN.”

The Golan occupation is the main reason why the war between Israel and Syria is not officially over. A step to disrupt the actual situation here may be the final stage of tension, that is, a state of war. The message sent with fighter jets is just a reminder to Israel for now.

Israeli press frequently featured Hezbollah making use of Russian military experience with the Syrian war. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that there are 1 and a half million Russian-speaking population in Israel. Moscow suspended its decision to close the Jewish Agency, which was founded nearly 100 years ago. Israel is concerned that in response to its possible military support for Ukraine, Moscow will openly and vigorously support its enemies.

The essence of the recent Israeli debate in the U.S. is generated by this stance of “relative neutrality”. Providing support to Ukraine, regardless of Moscow, which has changed the military and political course in Syria since 2015, will force Israel’s fragile defenses. The war might spread to the Middle East if the advanced air defense systems requested by Kiev are given to Ukraine.

Israel occupied the Golan Heights in the 1967 War and there is still no peace agreement between Israel and Syria. Invited by Syria, Iran’s effective actions in the region is also self-explanatory. Tel Aviv won’t want to see Russia on the “axis of resistance” with all its gravity in this environment. For this reason, if “relative neutrality” is disrupted in Ukraine, it will pave the way for the developments that will challenge Israel’s security paradigm in the Middle East.

A ‘tectonic shift’ in U.S.-Israel relations

An analysis at Israel’s leading Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, which reflects the views of military bureaucracy, examines the crack in Tel Aviv-Washington relations that emerged because of the Ukrainian war. The analysis finds that the special relationship between Israel and the United States has recently turned into an “Israeli debate” and points out that Tel Aviv remains “relatively neutral” in Ukraine for security reasons.

Reporting that support for Israel is still high in the United States, INSS analysis shows that criticism towards Israel has increased, especially among younger people, apart from Democrats. As a matter of fact, the results of public opinion polls in the United States, which are consistent with this finding, are quite striking. According to U.S. pollster John Zogby, this anti-Israeli rise in the United States is a “tectonic shift”, the BBC noted.

The findings of the Pew Research Centre, cited by INSS, confirm this finding. Accordingly, for the 50+ age group among Americans, the average support is 65 percent. In younger age groups, this rate falls to an average of 45 percent. Moreover, public opinion polls conducted by the Brookings Research Institute show that among supporters of the Democrat party and young people, there are reservations about the positive attitude of U.S. administration towards Israel. Many Democrats view U.S. support for Israel as “more than necessary.”

INSS analysis summarizes future trends that will cause erosion in U.S.-Israel relations under five headings. In short, Tel Aviv-based organization puts emphasis on the following:

Demographic changes: The growth of non-white population in the U.S. makes the dialogue on fascism an important component of the political discourse. In addition, generational changes are another important factor. The generation of President Biden, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who grew up in the shadow of World War II and see war as a “necessary evil”, is being replaced by a generation who view the wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan as “unnecessary.” The analysis also notes that “Israel’s claims of self-defense and wars of no choice appear hollow to them.”

Political polarization: According to INSS, multi-layered polarization in U.S. society gradually narrows the field of social consensus in U.S. society. In this context, the policy of support for Israel, which receives cross-party approval, is also on a downward trend.

The pro-Israel lobby: In this heading, the focus is on the “erosion” among American Jews. While most American Jews continue to support Israel, growing criticism of Israel by some left-wing Jewish organizations is noted.

The global order of priorities: The impact of the competition between the United States and China, and the Ukrainian crisis on U.S.-Israel relations are discussed under this heading. Noting that U.S. pays less attention to Middle East, INSS emphasizes the desire of the U.S. to reduce its military involvement and to have a more limited role in the region in the long term.

Taking account of the potential risks for the future of U.S. relations in Israel, the parties do not expect a break in the short term. Even though the emerging reality is not at the level of disrupting the unity of both states in the region strategically, the risks posed by it are being carefully studied by Tel Aviv.