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MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s ‘erosion’ concern over relations with the U.S.

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According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Israel should adjust its future policies to the “emerging reality”, considering “anti-Israel trends in the US”. According to an analysis published by the institute, the new reality has the potential to lead to significant erosion in United States-Israel relations.

In Tel Aviv, which failed to please the U.S. and Russia at the same time in the Ukrainian crisis, negative prospects for the future are increasing in relations with the United States. Tel Aviv’s relations with Russia, China and the non-Western world are handled within the frame of “rapprochement with the illiberal world” from the perspective of the U.S. established order. Developments in U.S. public opinion also reinforce skeptical approaches towards Washington in Israel.

‘Neutrality’ in Ukraine dismay Washington

Israel’s future government, which decided not to provide high-tech weapons to Kiev, is already facing pressure to “sell weapons.” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called Former Prime Minister Netanyahu, who won the elections, and reiterated his request for weapons from Israel. Zelensky, who claims that Iranian drones were used by Russia, urges Israel to stand up against Iran on the Ukrainian issue. To date, Tel Aviv has not given the green light to this call, citing the challenge of its own security equation. Israel, which freely strikes the regions it declared as “Iran’s target” in Syria, won’t want to encounter Russia on this field.

Iran and Syria directly support organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, their military actions and fight against Israel. Acting with the great support of Iran, this broad block defines itself as the “axis of resistance”.

Although the “axis of resistance” is disempowered by the Arab Spring, it is still standing. Syrian-Hamas relations, which deteriorated with the Syrian war, also recovered in October. A senior Hamas official visited Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Regional states have stopped stirring the sectarian cauldron where they poured gasoline over the past decade. Considering all this, forcing Russia to oppose the Middle East does not serve the security interests of Israel.

Subtle message via Golan

The fact that Russian and Syrian fighter jets conducted a joint aerial patrol over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights gives insight into Tel Aviv’s relatively neutral policy to date. Moscow told Tel Aviv, “If you supply weapons to Ukraine regime, we may take steps that will put you in difficulty with Syria about Golan that you are occupying and that is considered part of Syria according to the UN.”

The Golan occupation is the main reason why the war between Israel and Syria is not officially over. A step to disrupt the actual situation here may be the final stage of tension, that is, a state of war. The message sent with fighter jets is just a reminder to Israel for now.

Israeli press frequently featured Hezbollah making use of Russian military experience with the Syrian war. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that there are 1 and a half million Russian-speaking population in Israel. Moscow suspended its decision to close the Jewish Agency, which was founded nearly 100 years ago. Israel is concerned that in response to its possible military support for Ukraine, Moscow will openly and vigorously support its enemies.

The essence of the recent Israeli debate in the U.S. is generated by this stance of “relative neutrality”. Providing support to Ukraine, regardless of Moscow, which has changed the military and political course in Syria since 2015, will force Israel’s fragile defenses. The war might spread to the Middle East if the advanced air defense systems requested by Kiev are given to Ukraine.

Israel occupied the Golan Heights in the 1967 War and there is still no peace agreement between Israel and Syria. Invited by Syria, Iran’s effective actions in the region is also self-explanatory. Tel Aviv won’t want to see Russia on the “axis of resistance” with all its gravity in this environment. For this reason, if “relative neutrality” is disrupted in Ukraine, it will pave the way for the developments that will challenge Israel’s security paradigm in the Middle East.

A ‘tectonic shift’ in U.S.-Israel relations

An analysis at Israel’s leading Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, which reflects the views of military bureaucracy, examines the crack in Tel Aviv-Washington relations that emerged because of the Ukrainian war. The analysis finds that the special relationship between Israel and the United States has recently turned into an “Israeli debate” and points out that Tel Aviv remains “relatively neutral” in Ukraine for security reasons.

Reporting that support for Israel is still high in the United States, INSS analysis shows that criticism towards Israel has increased, especially among younger people, apart from Democrats. As a matter of fact, the results of public opinion polls in the United States, which are consistent with this finding, are quite striking. According to U.S. pollster John Zogby, this anti-Israeli rise in the United States is a “tectonic shift”, the BBC noted.

The findings of the Pew Research Centre, cited by INSS, confirm this finding. Accordingly, for the 50+ age group among Americans, the average support is 65 percent. In younger age groups, this rate falls to an average of 45 percent. Moreover, public opinion polls conducted by the Brookings Research Institute show that among supporters of the Democrat party and young people, there are reservations about the positive attitude of U.S. administration towards Israel. Many Democrats view U.S. support for Israel as “more than necessary.”

INSS analysis summarizes future trends that will cause erosion in U.S.-Israel relations under five headings. In short, Tel Aviv-based organization puts emphasis on the following:

Demographic changes: The growth of non-white population in the U.S. makes the dialogue on fascism an important component of the political discourse. In addition, generational changes are another important factor. The generation of President Biden, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who grew up in the shadow of World War II and see war as a “necessary evil”, is being replaced by a generation who view the wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan as “unnecessary.” The analysis also notes that “Israel’s claims of self-defense and wars of no choice appear hollow to them.”

Political polarization: According to INSS, multi-layered polarization in U.S. society gradually narrows the field of social consensus in U.S. society. In this context, the policy of support for Israel, which receives cross-party approval, is also on a downward trend.

The pro-Israel lobby: In this heading, the focus is on the “erosion” among American Jews. While most American Jews continue to support Israel, growing criticism of Israel by some left-wing Jewish organizations is noted.

The global order of priorities: The impact of the competition between the United States and China, and the Ukrainian crisis on U.S.-Israel relations are discussed under this heading. Noting that U.S. pays less attention to Middle East, INSS emphasizes the desire of the U.S. to reduce its military involvement and to have a more limited role in the region in the long term.

Taking account of the potential risks for the future of U.S. relations in Israel, the parties do not expect a break in the short term. Even though the emerging reality is not at the level of disrupting the unity of both states in the region strategically, the risks posed by it are being carefully studied by Tel Aviv.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel resumes massacre in Gaza after US green light

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After failing to impose its terms on Hamas, Israel, in violation of the ceasefire agreement, launched an intense aerial assault on Gaza. With the approval of the US, the attacks in the early morning resulted in the deaths of Gazan children in their sleep.

Israel announced the end of the ceasefire and began conducting heavy airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. Tent camps where displaced Palestinians had sought refuge were also bombed, causing fires.

In a few hours, the number of people killed in the Israeli attacks exceeded 205, and the number of injured surpassed 300. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, 113 of the victims were killed in the southern part of the region. Many families were completely wiped out, and children were killed in their sleep. Images of dead babies emerged from hospitals.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated in a post on the social media platform X that the Israeli army was striking Hamas targets in Gaza. The statement cited Hamas’s “continued refusal to release hostages” and “Trump’s Middle East Representative Steve Witkoff turning down all proposals offered by mediators” as the reasons for the attacks.

The statement signaled that Israel would expand its attacks.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also claimed that they had relaunched the attacks because Hamas refused to release the Israeli captives. Katz said, “If Hamas does not release all the captives, the gates of hell will open in Gaza.” Katz stated that they would continue the attacks until they achieved their goals.

The Israeli army also announced that the order to attack was given by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz. The army emphasized that it would continue the airstrikes “as long as necessary” and was ready to move the surprise attack beyond the air operation if ordered.

Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir is managing the attacks from the army headquarters together with Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar.

US support for Israel, which broke the ceasefire and began targeting civilians again with attacks on Gaza, was not delayed. The White House announced that Israel had consulted with the US regarding the attacks.

Speaking to Fox News, White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, using the expression “Doomsday will break out,” stated that Trump was not afraid to support Israel.

In a written statement from Hamas, it was stated that the Israeli government had broken the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on January 19 and had declared war on the Gaza Strip.

The statement reminded that the Palestinian people were subjected to a barbaric war as well as systematic starvation policies, and added, “We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Zionist Nazi occupiers responsible for the consequences of the treacherous attacks against Gaza and the defenseless Palestinian people.”

The statement said, “Netanyahu and his radical government, by deciding to undermine the ceasefire agreement, are endangering the lives of the captives in the Gaza Strip and dragging their fate into uncertainty. We call on the mediators to hold Netanyahu and the Zionist occupier responsible for undermining the ceasefire.”

In the statement, Arab countries and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) were called upon to fulfill their responsibilities and stand by the Palestinian people and break the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was called upon to convene urgently.

In its statement, Hamas requested that the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continue and that Israeli forces withdraw, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2735.

The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, involved Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of some of the Israeli hostages. In the second phase, which was supposed to begin after the completion of the first phase, Israel was expected to withdraw completely from Gaza, and the remaining hostages held by Hamas were to be released gradually.

However, if the second phase were to begin and Israel were to withdraw its soldiers from Gaza, Netanyahu’s government was likely to collapse. Unwilling to take this risk, Netanyahu tried to extend the first phase and rescue the Israeli hostages by pressuring Hamas together with the mediators, instead of moving on to the second phase of the agreement. However, Hamas did not accept this and demanded that the agreement be implemented in full.

Meanwhile, Israel’s attack move came after Prime Minister Netanyahu removed Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin-Bet internal intelligence organization, and David Barnea, the director of the Mossad foreign intelligence service, from the country’s negotiation team. Netanyahu argued that he made these changes because the intelligence officials were acting “too softly” in the negotiations.

There is a tension between Israel’s security institutions and the Netanyahu government, the roots of which date back to before the October 7 raid. Due to this tension, which has been increasing since October 7, the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi resigned earlier this month. Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar was fired by Netanyahu. Reactions from the opposition that Netanyahu was trying to fire Bar for personal reasons increased calls for street protests. With this attack move, Netanyahu has also set a barrier to the major protests planned for tomorrow.

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MIDDLE EAST

Türkiye to double electricity exports to Iraq, reaching 600 MW

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Türkiye is set to double its electricity exports to Iraq, raising the capacity to 600 megawatts. As summer approaches, the Baghdad administration is seeking alternative energy sources to replace those from Iran, which is currently under US sanctions.

The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity announced on Sunday that “All necessary logistical and infrastructure preparations have been completed to increase the electricity supply capacity via the Iraq-Türkiye interconnection line to 600 megawatts.”

During a visit to Iraq, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar met with various officials, including Iraqi Minister of Electricity Ziyad Ali Fadel. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity stated that Bayraktar confirmed the electricity supply would increase “in the coming months.”

The National reported that in July of last year, Baghdad and Ankara inaugurated the electricity line, which currently supplies 300 MW of electricity to Iraq.

Under the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran initiated by US President Donald Trump, Washington revoked the waiver last week that permitted Iraq to import energy from Iran.

Despite being the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iraq struggles to meet its electricity demand due to decades of war, mismanagement, and corruption. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kazimi said in 2020 that the country had spent at least $60 billion on the electricity sector since the US-led invasion in 2003.

Baghdad sources approximately one-third of its electricity from Iran. Iraq buys 50 million cubic meters of natural gas and 500 megawatts of electricity daily from Iran. Iraqi officials have stated that US sanctions will only impact electricity imports.

Since 2018, Washington has granted waivers allowing Iraq to import energy from Iran for specific periods, typically ranging from 45 to 120 days. However, the US seeks to reduce Iraq’s reliance on Iran and continues to apply pressure to achieve this.

Iraq has taken steps in recent years to develop its natural gas resources and address the deficit in the electricity sector. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, the country’s natural gas reserves are approximately 3.714 billion cubic meters.

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MIDDLE EAST

New Syrian constitution draft sparks controversy over Islamic law

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Ahmed Shara, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) administration in Syria, signed a declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. The de facto administration in northern Syria, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) which signed an agreement with HTS earlier this week, rejected the articles in the draft constitution, stating that they are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based.”

In a statement made on behalf of the de facto administration, which calls itself the “Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria” under the leadership of the SDG, it was stated, “Months after the fall of the Ba’ath regime and despite the joy of the Syrian people who rebelled against this regime and its oppressive practices, a ‘Draft Constitution’ declaration was published in Damascus.”

The statement claimed that the articles in the draft constitution are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based” and are “far from the reality and diversity of Syria.”

It was stated that the draft constitution excludes the main components of Syria’s national structure, including Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and other ethnic and religious groups, and that they reject and condemn the draft in its current form.

“This so-called constitutional framework does not reflect the demands of the Syrian people and its various communities,” the statement said. “The Syrian people revolted against such practices, and a return to this outdated approach will further deepen the nation’s wounds.”

The statement continued: “The correct constitution that should be in place is one prepared and agreed upon by all communities. We hope that some exclusive, narrow-minded views and thoughts do not take us back to square one. Only in this way can it serve as the foundation for a sustainable democratic future in Syria.”

An agreement was reached between the HTS administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) on Monday, March 10. The agreement, signed between Ahmed Shara, the leader of the HTS administration, and Mazlum Abdi, the leader of the SDG, envisioned the integration of the SDG into Syrian state institutions.

Yesterday, three days after the agreement with the SDG, Shara signed a 53-article declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. According to the declaration, the constitution includes the article, “The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation.”

The constitution, which envisages a five-year transition period, grants Shara, who is declared the “interim President,” executive power, the authority to appoint one-third of the legislative body, and the power to appoint judges to the constitutional court. Shara will also have the power to declare a state of emergency. Additionally, all political party activities in the country are suspended until the political parties law comes into effect.

According to Anadolu Agency, the highlights of the interim constitutional declaration are as follows:

– Article 1: The Syrian Arab Republic is a fully independent and sovereign state. Its geographical and political unity is indivisible, and no part of it can be relinquished.

– Article 2: The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation. Freedom of belief is guaranteed. The state respects all heavenly religions and guarantees freedom of worship. However, this freedom must not violate public order.

– Article 6: All citizens have equal rights and obligations before the law. Discrimination based on race, religion, gender, or lineage is prohibited.

– Article 7: The personal status of religious communities is protected and applied in accordance with their beliefs and Sharia. It is regulated within the framework of existing laws.

– Article 8: The state regulates the national economy based on social justice, free competition, and the prevention of monopolies. It supports production sectors, encourages investment, and protects investors to strengthen sustainable development.

– Article 13: The state guarantees freedom of expression, thought, press, publication, and media. These rights are regulated by law to protect public order and respect the rights of others.

– Article 14: The state recognizes the right to political participation and the freedom to form parties based on national foundations. A commission will be formed to prepare the party law, and party activities will be suspended until this law comes into effect.

– Article 15: The state commits to protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms in accordance with international conventions and humanitarian norms.

– Article 16: The state protects the family as the foundation of society and commits to supporting motherhood and childhood.

– Article 17: The state commits to protecting the social status and active role of women and protecting them from all forms of violence and discrimination.

– Article 18: The state commits to protecting children from abuse and mistreatment and ensuring their access to education and health services.

– Article 20: The People’s Assembly is appointed by the President and performs legislative duties until a permanent constitution is adopted and new parliamentary elections are held.

– Article 27: The President is the head of state, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and the highest authority responsible for the administration of the country.

– Article 35: The judiciary is independent. Judges are bound only by law and their conscience.

– Article 36: No crime or punishment can be applied without a legal regulation. Everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Extraordinary courts cannot be established.

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