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MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s ‘erosion’ concern over relations with the U.S.

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According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Israel should adjust its future policies to the “emerging reality”, considering “anti-Israel trends in the US”. According to an analysis published by the institute, the new reality has the potential to lead to significant erosion in United States-Israel relations.

In Tel Aviv, which failed to please the U.S. and Russia at the same time in the Ukrainian crisis, negative prospects for the future are increasing in relations with the United States. Tel Aviv’s relations with Russia, China and the non-Western world are handled within the frame of “rapprochement with the illiberal world” from the perspective of the U.S. established order. Developments in U.S. public opinion also reinforce skeptical approaches towards Washington in Israel.

‘Neutrality’ in Ukraine dismay Washington

Israel’s future government, which decided not to provide high-tech weapons to Kiev, is already facing pressure to “sell weapons.” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called Former Prime Minister Netanyahu, who won the elections, and reiterated his request for weapons from Israel. Zelensky, who claims that Iranian drones were used by Russia, urges Israel to stand up against Iran on the Ukrainian issue. To date, Tel Aviv has not given the green light to this call, citing the challenge of its own security equation. Israel, which freely strikes the regions it declared as “Iran’s target” in Syria, won’t want to encounter Russia on this field.

Iran and Syria directly support organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, their military actions and fight against Israel. Acting with the great support of Iran, this broad block defines itself as the “axis of resistance”.

Although the “axis of resistance” is disempowered by the Arab Spring, it is still standing. Syrian-Hamas relations, which deteriorated with the Syrian war, also recovered in October. A senior Hamas official visited Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Regional states have stopped stirring the sectarian cauldron where they poured gasoline over the past decade. Considering all this, forcing Russia to oppose the Middle East does not serve the security interests of Israel.

Subtle message via Golan

The fact that Russian and Syrian fighter jets conducted a joint aerial patrol over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights gives insight into Tel Aviv’s relatively neutral policy to date. Moscow told Tel Aviv, “If you supply weapons to Ukraine regime, we may take steps that will put you in difficulty with Syria about Golan that you are occupying and that is considered part of Syria according to the UN.”

The Golan occupation is the main reason why the war between Israel and Syria is not officially over. A step to disrupt the actual situation here may be the final stage of tension, that is, a state of war. The message sent with fighter jets is just a reminder to Israel for now.

Israeli press frequently featured Hezbollah making use of Russian military experience with the Syrian war. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that there are 1 and a half million Russian-speaking population in Israel. Moscow suspended its decision to close the Jewish Agency, which was founded nearly 100 years ago. Israel is concerned that in response to its possible military support for Ukraine, Moscow will openly and vigorously support its enemies.

The essence of the recent Israeli debate in the U.S. is generated by this stance of “relative neutrality”. Providing support to Ukraine, regardless of Moscow, which has changed the military and political course in Syria since 2015, will force Israel’s fragile defenses. The war might spread to the Middle East if the advanced air defense systems requested by Kiev are given to Ukraine.

Israel occupied the Golan Heights in the 1967 War and there is still no peace agreement between Israel and Syria. Invited by Syria, Iran’s effective actions in the region is also self-explanatory. Tel Aviv won’t want to see Russia on the “axis of resistance” with all its gravity in this environment. For this reason, if “relative neutrality” is disrupted in Ukraine, it will pave the way for the developments that will challenge Israel’s security paradigm in the Middle East.

A ‘tectonic shift’ in U.S.-Israel relations

An analysis at Israel’s leading Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, which reflects the views of military bureaucracy, examines the crack in Tel Aviv-Washington relations that emerged because of the Ukrainian war. The analysis finds that the special relationship between Israel and the United States has recently turned into an “Israeli debate” and points out that Tel Aviv remains “relatively neutral” in Ukraine for security reasons.

Reporting that support for Israel is still high in the United States, INSS analysis shows that criticism towards Israel has increased, especially among younger people, apart from Democrats. As a matter of fact, the results of public opinion polls in the United States, which are consistent with this finding, are quite striking. According to U.S. pollster John Zogby, this anti-Israeli rise in the United States is a “tectonic shift”, the BBC noted.

The findings of the Pew Research Centre, cited by INSS, confirm this finding. Accordingly, for the 50+ age group among Americans, the average support is 65 percent. In younger age groups, this rate falls to an average of 45 percent. Moreover, public opinion polls conducted by the Brookings Research Institute show that among supporters of the Democrat party and young people, there are reservations about the positive attitude of U.S. administration towards Israel. Many Democrats view U.S. support for Israel as “more than necessary.”

INSS analysis summarizes future trends that will cause erosion in U.S.-Israel relations under five headings. In short, Tel Aviv-based organization puts emphasis on the following:

Demographic changes: The growth of non-white population in the U.S. makes the dialogue on fascism an important component of the political discourse. In addition, generational changes are another important factor. The generation of President Biden, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who grew up in the shadow of World War II and see war as a “necessary evil”, is being replaced by a generation who view the wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan as “unnecessary.” The analysis also notes that “Israel’s claims of self-defense and wars of no choice appear hollow to them.”

Political polarization: According to INSS, multi-layered polarization in U.S. society gradually narrows the field of social consensus in U.S. society. In this context, the policy of support for Israel, which receives cross-party approval, is also on a downward trend.

The pro-Israel lobby: In this heading, the focus is on the “erosion” among American Jews. While most American Jews continue to support Israel, growing criticism of Israel by some left-wing Jewish organizations is noted.

The global order of priorities: The impact of the competition between the United States and China, and the Ukrainian crisis on U.S.-Israel relations are discussed under this heading. Noting that U.S. pays less attention to Middle East, INSS emphasizes the desire of the U.S. to reduce its military involvement and to have a more limited role in the region in the long term.

Taking account of the potential risks for the future of U.S. relations in Israel, the parties do not expect a break in the short term. Even though the emerging reality is not at the level of disrupting the unity of both states in the region strategically, the risks posed by it are being carefully studied by Tel Aviv.

MIDDLE EAST

Some Afghan journalists contemplating suicide; but why?

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In the past three years, the Taliban have severely limited access to information in Afghanistan and in some cases made it almost impossible. Many journalists who operate from the country say that the space for their activities is getting narrower every day.

These reporters state that in addition to self-censorship, they have experienced a kind of unwanted imprisonment and spend days and nights in their homes. They cannot move freely in the community for fear of interrogation and revenge from the Taliban.

In this report, two journalists have confirmed that they thought of suicide due to pressure from the Taliban. They say that life in Afghanistan has become difficult and that the Taliban have appeared as “death angle” and that if they did not have children, they would commit suicide.

These journalists are disappointed with the institutions that support the media and say that they have no way out of the existing problems. This is despite the fact that the Taliban have imposed more restrictions during the past month and have banned the publication of photos and images in five provinces.

One of the journalists who works under the Taliban regime says that the space for journalists to breathe and live is getting narrower and more limited every day. According to him, the Taliban have created an atmosphere where reporters and media spend day and night in worry and fear, and because of this, they cannot cover many events.

Taliban severely restricted the media landscape in Afghanistan, making it nearly impossible for journalist to operate

She emphasized that in some cases, due to the fear of the Taliban, she has covered news events a few days after they happened to prevent the Taliban from drawing attention and focusing on herself.

This reporter, who does not want to be named in the report, emphasizes that the difficult living conditions, the strict restrictions of the Taliban and the fear of being arrested and interrogated by this group made her think of suicide.

Samera, one of the Afghan female journalists, using her pin name for security reason, said that the painful experience of working under the Taliban rule has made her think about suicide many times. She says that she was once arrested by the Taliban for filming for news coverage.

“My arrest by the Taliban was the most bitter and painful experience, which made forced me to think of committing suicide,” She lamented.

This journalist says: “When the Taliban arrested me, I was thinking what my family, my colleagues and the community would say if I stayed in the prison at night?”

She furthered, “Because the arrest of a woman by the Taliban willfully or unwittingly has negative and harmful consequences that one cannot think of anything other than suicide.”

When the Taliban took some journalists, including females to the court, one of them said “why did you bring them, you should have shot them.”

“There I saw an old man who was the same age as my father. He threw himself at Talib’s feet and apologized, but Talib did not pay any attention to him,” she added.

An Afghan journalist said that he will commit suicide this time if Taliban arrest him

Omid, another journalist who used his pin name to avoid arrest, has thought of suicide many times, and he was also arrested several times. He says that despite his efforts, he did not succeed in leaving Afghanistan. “I’ll commit suicide if the Taliban arrest me once again,” he warned.

He furthered that he has heard a lot about torture and ill-treatment in the Taliban prison and has a horrible image of the prison scenes in his mind.

“Before the Taliban torture and insult me ​​in a terrible way, or take a video commitment from me… I prefer to put an end to this life,” he warned, adding that “I think that suicide is the only way to end all this suffering and misery.”

Another journalist who is currently in Pakistan also confirms that he thought of suicide due to mental and psychological problems. She says: “God is a witness to the hardships I experienced in Pakistan, it had ruined my soul and spirit so much that I thought if I committed suicide, I might get rid of these ordeals.”

In the past one month, the Taliban have continuously and systematically prevented the video activities of the media in a number of provinces across the country. After banning photography and filming, this group has now banned five provinces from these activities and announced that this restriction will be gradually applied in all provinces.

The Taliban authorities have informed the local media of the ban on taking pictures and publishing them, as well as banning the video interviews of their officials in Nangarhar province.

Azizullah Mustafa, the deputy governor of the Taliban in Nangarhar has ordered all the local employees that according to the order of the Taliban supreme leader it is forbidden to take pictures of living creatures and publish them, and the media is only allowed to communicate with Taliban officials.

Taliban already banned taking pictures of living creatures in five provinces in Afghanistan

Kandahar, Takhar, Badghis, Helmand and Nangarhar are among the provinces, where taking pictures of living creatures and publishing them, as well as video interviews, are completely prohibited.

The Taliban have closed three radio stations in Khost province during the past month under extensive pressure. “Gharghasht”, “Zheman” and “Long” radios have been blocked by the Taliban and they have resumed their activities after providing a written commitment to comply with the Taliban’s orders.

The Center of Afghan Journalists has already announced that the Taliban have imposed 17 restrictive directives against the media. These restrictions include preventing women from appearing on national radio and television, banning media coverage of demonstrations and civil protests, imposing restrictions on access to information and publishing news and reports, requiring journalists and media to introduce the Taliban regime as the “government of Afghanistan”.

Also, the Taliban have imposed restrictions on interviews with their opponents and critics. They have banned the broadcast of international television programs in Afghanistan and have imposed restrictions on publishing commercials with political, security and social content. In addition, the media have been prohibited from criticizing the work of Taliban officials, and filming, video interviews, and the publication of women’s voices have been prohibited from the media.

Also, it is forbidden to work with the media that have been declared “forbidden” by the Taliban, and in Helmand province, the publication of women’s voices in the local media is completely prohibited. Orders have also been issued to the media to refrain from using “foreign terms”, which refers to the use of “
“Persian words” for university and college. Prohibiting photography and filming in official and informal meetings of local Taliban officials in Kandahar, and banning girls from making phone calls to radios and televisions in Khost province are among the other restrictions imposed by the Taliban on domestic media in Afghanistan.

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MIDDLE EAST

ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant on war Crimes charges

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, citing war crimes in Gaza.

Despite sanctions and threats from Israel and the United States, the ICC’s decision was based on overwhelming evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Palestinians. Among the charges, Netanyahu and Gallant were accused of using starvation as a weapon, with the court stating these allegations are founded on “reasonable grounds.”

Israel reportedly employed its intelligence agency, the Mossad, to spy on, hack, pressure, defame, and allegedly threaten senior ICC officials in an effort to obstruct investigations. Although these efforts were partially exposed through the international press and statements from ICC staff, they failed to deter the Court’s proceedings.

The ICC also clarified that it is undeterred by Israel’s non-recognition of the Court’s authority or its rulings.

Additionally, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masr on related charges.

While this ruling may not immediately halt Israeli military actions in Gaza or reduce U.S. support for Israel, it is likely to deepen divisions among European nations over their stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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MIDDLE EAST

Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends

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Khalil al-Hayya, a senior member of the Hamas Political Bureau, announced on Al-Aqsa TV that Hamas had accepted a proposal to form a committee to administer Gaza, with the condition that its operations be entirely local.

In his statement regarding the ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, al-Hayya said: “An idea has been proposed to establish a committee for the administration of Gaza. This suggestion was made by our Egyptian brothers. We have responded responsibly and positively. We accept this proposal on the condition that the committee will operate in a fully localized manner, overseeing all aspects of daily life in Gaza.”

Earlier this month, representatives from both the Hamas and Fatah movements convened in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss a potential ceasefire and the establishment of this administrative committee.

Commenting on the indirect ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations between Hamas and Israel, al-Hayya stated: “There will be no prisoner exchange until the Israeli genocide stops. This is an interconnected equation. We are very clear on this: we want this aggression to end. These attacks must cease before any prisoner exchange can take place.”

Al-Hayya added that Hamas remains ready for a ceasefire agreement but emphasized that Israel must demonstrate genuine willingness to proceed. “We are engaging with mediating countries to advance ceasefire negotiations. However, Netanyahu is hindering progress in these talks for political reasons,” he said.

Since the escalation of violence on October 7, 2023, indirect negotiations between the parties have continued, with countries like Qatar mediating ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreements. Both the United States and Egypt have played supporting roles in these efforts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism domestically and from the international community for failing to secure a prisoner exchange agreement with Hamas. Analysts highlight those additional conditions introduced by Israel, particularly its insistence on maintaining control over the Egypt-Gaza border and the Philadelphi Corridor, have further complicated the negotiations.

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