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Japan’s security future: ‘Asian NATO’ proposal and SOFA revision

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The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) held a public debate to select a new prime minister. The candidates shared their views on economic growth, security issues and political reform.

The most striking statement among the candidates was the call by leading candidate Shigeru Ishiba for the establishment of an Asian NATO, starting with Japan’s accession to ANZUS.

In previous press conferences, Ishiba has frequently expressed his desire to create an ‘Asian version of NATO’ and to bring parity to the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement. Ishiba often referred to the Ukraine issue during the meeting, saying: “Why is deterrence not working in Ukraine? Because there is no official NATO presence there”.

Ishiba served as director-general of the Japan Defence Agency in the cabinet of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi between 2002 and 2004. He then served for one year as defence minister under Yasuo Fukuda in 2007-2008. A senior figure in the LDP, Ishiba is one of those who believe that Japan should abandon its pacifist constitutional defence strategy.

In a debate with nine other candidates that focused on their economic and development plans, Ishiba said: “Asia’s security structure is gradually changing under the influence of existing relationships and value systems. This requires us to rethink the concepts of international cooperation and self-defence”.

On security policy, Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi pointed out that the ‘Asian version of NATO’ advocated by former Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba was unrealistic. “It is theoretically possible to start with countries with similar environments,” Ishiba replied, referring to the United States, Australia, and New Zealand.

Motegi then recalled that this was a constitutional process, independent of party agendas, and said: “I think Ishiba will be the founder of the Asian version of NATO. Although the essence of NATO is being proposed, it is a system to protect member states from external aggression. Collective security and the right to self-defence are increasingly dependent on the LDP. This comprehensive study is about the constitution. Yes, Asia is a continent with different value systems. Very different from Europe in particular. For example, our relations and positions with China are on a different level. I wonder if this discourse has matured to support the progressive process in the relationship. On the other hand, will Singapore, Thailand and India be included in this group? I also think that this is unrealistic. What do you think, Mr Shiba, please respond?”

Ishiba argued that the understanding of collective security in Asia affects the relations of countries, which creates uncertainty about how regional security mechanisms will be shaped, and said: “The symbol of collective security is the United Nations. But is it possible to join the United Nations forces and use force? I advocate the Asian version of NATO because it is a different concept from the right of self-defence. We need to clarify everything, including the constitutional debate. I am fully aware of that, but which countries will be involved? This is only because there are various security mechanisms in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Japan and the United States, the US-Korea Security Treaty, the ANZUS Treaty and the Five Eyes Alliance under the United Kingdom. Yes, the earliest way to combine them is to add Japan to AZUS,” he said.

The alliance between Japan and the United States is an important factor in the security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region. This creates the need to strengthen cooperation with other Asian countries. So much so that Ishiba’s statement that ‘Japan is the symbol of collective security’ shows the effort to establish hegemony in the Asia-Pacific with the US by establishing the epicentre in Japan to surround China and Russia in the region. When Ishiba was secretary general in the Abe cabinet, he argued for the need to pave the way for these constitutional changes.

Ishiba also announced that he would consider revising the Statute of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which governs US military operations in Japan.

The agreement was signed in 1960 when the US-Japan security treaty was revised and remains unchanged.

Many in Japan describe the SOFA as ‘unequal and occupying’, especially when it comes to accidents and crimes involving US military personnel.

Ishiba, as LDP leader and therefore prime minister, emphasised the need for closer military ties between the two countries and said that Japan wanted to establish a base in the US to train its Self-Defence Forces.

He then argued that the SOFA should be at the same level as the agreement that would be reached if such a Japanese military base were established in the United States.

If we are going to revise the SOFA, it should be something that strengthens the alliance and improves the regional security environment,” Ishiba said.

 

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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ASIA

Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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