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China-Pakistan defense ties under threat from new U.S. sanctions

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Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Chinese missile technology suppliers are seen as a potential risk to the longstanding defense ties between China and Pakistan.

The U.S. State Department has imposed sanctions on the Beijing Machinery Manufacturing Industry Automation Research Institute, accusing the company of supplying equipment used to test missile engines in Pakistan. The sanctions were extended to three additional Chinese companies—Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment, Xi’an Longde Technology Development, and Universal Enterprise—along with Pakistan-based Innovative Equipment, owned by Chinese national Luo Dongmei. These entities are alleged to have transferred equipment regulated under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

Washington claims the sanctioned companies provided materials for Pakistan’s Hawk 3 and Ababil ballistic missile programs. The Hawk 3 is a medium-range missile capable of reaching targets up to 2,750 kilometers, posing a strategic threat to neighboring India and parts of the Middle East. The Ababil missile, with a range of 1,800 kilometers, serves a similar tactical purpose.

Part of broader U.S. strategy

Security analysts argue the sanctions are part of a broader U.S. effort to curb China’s rising influence rather than a direct action against Pakistan. “This is more about containing China’s growth than targeting Pakistan specifically,” said Syed Muhammad Ali, a security expert based in Islamabad, in an interview with Nikkei Asia.

Ali emphasized that there is limited evidence linking China directly to Pakistan’s nuclear-capable missile programs. He noted that the majority of China-Pakistan defense cooperation centers on conventional weapons, aimed at strengthening Pakistan’s air force, army, and navy, rather than its missile development capabilities.

The Pakistani government quickly condemned the sanctions as politically motivated. “It is no secret that certain countries, while professing strict adherence to non-proliferation standards, selectively overlook licensing requirements for advanced military technologies when it suits their strategic interests,” said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch.

Enduring China-Pakistan defense ties

China remains Pakistan’s largest arms supplier, accounting for 44% of Pakistan’s major arms imports between 2000 and 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The two nations have a deep history of defense collaboration, including the joint development of the JF-17 fighter jet and the Al-Khalid main battle tank. Recent procurements include J-10C aircraft, Wing Loong II drones, and Hangor-class submarines.

While the sanctions may not immediately impact Pakistan’s missile programs, experts warn of long-term consequences for defense cooperation. “Pakistan has no other significant partner for missile development if China continues to face U.S. sanctions,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

Future challenges

The sanctions could complicate future defense transactions between China and Pakistan, as the dominance of the U.S. dollar may compel Chinese companies to comply with U.S. restrictions. Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior research fellow at King’s College London, pointed out that such financial dominance could make Chinese firms more cautious in future dealings with Pakistan.

Experts also warn that continued U.S. sanctions could strain Pakistan’s role in the broader U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry. “If China becomes less accessible due to these sanctions, Pakistan may be forced to look elsewhere for defense partners, a process that could take years,” Kugelman added. Pakistan’s past involvement in nuclear proliferation may further complicate its search for alternative suppliers.

Siddiqa noted that the sanctions are likely aimed at reassuring U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region, emphasizing Washington’s commitment to countering the perceived threat of missile proliferation in the area.

ASIA

ASEAN meets to discuss security and economic ties

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met in Laos on Wednesday to address regional security and economic issues, with the worsening civil war in Myanmar as a key topic on the agenda.

Thailand has offered to host an “informal consultation” in December to explore ways to resolve the conflict, which has displaced millions of people.

“We want to see a political solution,” Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura told reporters, adding, “Thailand is ready to coordinate with all other member states so that there is a joint ASEAN effort that can lead to peace in Myanmar.”

He noted that Thailand’s initiative would complement existing ASEAN peace efforts but might not immediately involve countries outside the region.

The proposal, raised at an ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday, comes as the bloc faces increasing challenges in addressing the crisis in Myanmar.

In recent months, Thailand has indicated that Myanmar’s other influential neighbors, China and India, could also play a role in peace efforts.

Nikorndej added that it would be up to ASEAN chair Laos and other member states to decide whether to invite Myanmar’s ruling generals or their opponents to the informal talks.

The ongoing dispute over the South China Sea is also high on the agenda.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are among those attending the summit.

Opening the summit on Wednesday, Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone acknowledged the challenges ASEAN faces, stating, “ASEAN has its own ways of overcoming them. Laos believes that ASEAN’s past achievements are due to our understanding of each other. We help and cooperate with each other in the ASEAN style and principles.”

Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is scheduled to visit Vietnam following the summit.

China looks forward to working with ASEAN and other regional countries “to build consensus, deepen mutual trust, strengthen cooperation, and give new impetus to peace, stability, development, and prosperity in the region and the world,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said during a regular press briefing on Tuesday, according to Xinhua News Agency.

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China retaliates against EU: Brandy imports targeted

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China decided on Tuesday to impose temporary anti-dumping measures on cognac imports from the European Union. The countermeasures came shortly after the 27-nation bloc imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs).

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that an investigation had found that the dumping of brandy from the European Union threatened to cause “significant damage” to its industry.

The Chinese ministry said in a statement that it would make “objective and fair” decisions when the ongoing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into EU pork products is completed.

The ministry also said it was considering raising tariffs on imports of large motor vehicles, which would hit German manufacturers the hardest. German exports of vehicles with engines of 2.5 litres or more to China reached $1.2 billion last year.

The ministry announced that from 11 October, importers of cognac from the EU will have to pay a deposit of between 34.8% and 39.0% of the import value.

France was seen as a target of Beijing’s brandy investigation because of its support for tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Brandy shipments from France to China reached $1.7 billion last year, accounting for 99% of the country’s alcoholic beverage imports.

This announcement clearly shows that China is determined to tax us in response to European decisions on electric vehicles,’ French cognac producers’ group BNIC said in an emailed response to Reuters, adding that everything must be done to prevent the imposition of tariffs.

French President Emmanuel Macron told a conference in Berlin last week that China’s cognac probe was unfounded, while tariffs on electric vehicles were necessary to maintain a level playing field, describing Beijing’s investigation as ‘pure retaliation’.

The EU Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Stock falls

Hennessy and Remy Martin, owned by LVMH, were among the brands most affected by the measures, with importers having to pay deposits of 39.0% and 38.1% respectively.

The deposits will make it more expensive to import spirits from the EU. However, these deposits may be refunded if an agreement is reached before the final tariffs are imposed.

Shares in Pernod Ricard fell by 4.2%, Remy Cointreau by 8.7% and Hennessy owner LVMH by 4.9%.

Companies that cooperated with the Chinese investigation were subject to a 34.8% penalty, while Martell had the lowest penalty at 30.6%.

Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and LVMH did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Jefferies analysts said the measures could mean a 20 per cent price increase for Chinese consumers and a 20 per cent reduction in sales volumes.

Remy’s sales, which are most exposed to the Chinese market, could fall by 6 per cent, while Pernod Group’s sales could be hit by 1.6 per cent, they said.

Luxury goods stocks fell as much as 7 per cent on Tuesday, with one trader attributing this to fears that the sector, which is heavily dependent on China, could see the next round of trade measures.

The spirits measures follow the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles by the end of October.

Before the vote in late August, China had suspended its planned anti-dumping measures on EU brandy, ostensibly as a goodwill gesture, even though it had found that EU brandy was being sold in China at below-market prices.

At the time, the Ministry of Commerce said the investigation would end before 5 January 2025, but that it could be extended.

China’s Ministry of Commerce previously said it had found that European distillers were selling brandy at a dumping margin of between 30.6% and 39% in the consumer market of 1.4 billion people, causing damage to the domestic industry.

In the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, the bloc set tariff rates ranging from 7.8% for Tesla to 35.3% for SAIC and other manufacturers deemed uncooperative in its investigation. These rates are in addition to the 10 per cent car import duty.

The European Commission said it was willing to pursue alternative negotiations even after the tariffs were imposed.

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Pakistan bans ethnic Pashtun party PTM; Political insecurity looming

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Imposition of ban on Pushtoon Tahafuz Movement (PTM) has made surprising its stalwarts and activists at the time when they are busy in finalizing of arrangements in connection with three days, Pushtoon Jirga scheduled at Jamrud Khyber from Friday.

The ban imposed/notified by the Federal Government through its interior ministry under Anti-Terrorism law of 1997 law is being opposed and criticized by Human Rights activists and analysts. Pakistan Interior Ministry in a statement said that the PTM has been included on the list of proscribed organizations under the country’s anti-terrorism laws, because of its involvement in “certain activities that are prejudicial to the peace and security of the country.”

Former Interior Secretary Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Syed Akhtar Ali Shah believes it misuse of anti-terror law as, “PTM is purely a political organization, raising voice in favor of its concerns through political and non violent ways.” On the other hand, he said, “government organs are silent and helpless towards those hardliner religious groups, which are publicly following violent ways. In this respect, he diverted attention towards TLP, which since 2016-2017 involved violent means by issuing murder edicts of former Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif and ex-Interior Minister Rana Sana Ullah. On such grounds, TLP also banned a couple of years but the federal government had withdrawn the decision on Punjab request. Instead of banning PTM, the government must address its demands, which may be helpful.  

Pakistani forces fired tear gas, beaten and arrested PTM activists

On the other hand, the volunteers and supporters of PTM from all over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, especially from terrorism and violence hit regions of Waziristan, Swat, Khyber, Bajaur and Bannu regions are pouring in to help in arrangements. 

Recently, the activists and volunteers of PTM had organized their tent on the site, whereas a three days Pakhtoon Quami Jirga will be commenced from October 11 next. 

However, the camp was destroyed by the Pakistani police personnel. In the wake of the situation, police action included firing tear gas shells, beating and arresting the activists throughout. Moreover, heavy contingents of police force had deployed earlier on main Pak-Afghan Highway, continuing firing of tear gas shells against them. PTM activists resisted the move with pellet-blows and succeeded in maintaining occupation of the site, where they resumed installation of tents and other arrangements. 

But the police resorted to firing of tear gas shells against the PTM organizing camp in accordance with directives from the Interior Ministry of the Federal Government. Soon after, Chief Minister through a brief social media disowned police action but later on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Home and Tribal Affairs through a notification directed police force for action against the PTM activists on the grounds of what it called “found involved in patronizing and assisting incitement of hatred and contempt against the state and its institutions, while exploiting sectarian and ethnic sentiments and also use of literature, print and electronic and other materials for the purpose.” 

Supporters and activists of Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement take part in a protest against the military in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province [File: (AFP]

The leader of PTM, Manzoor Pashteen through a video message has directed all workers and supporters to reach in Jamrud for maintaining occupation of the site and ensuring holding of peaceful gathering scheduled on October 11 next.           

At the same time, Pakistan security forces also engaged in direct clashes with the supporters of Imran Khan, the former jailed Prime Minister of Pakistan. Khan is also leader of PTI political party.

Pakistan forces also arrested and beaten PTI members

At the moment there is a complete deadlock between federal and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Government after arrest of Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandhapur and takeover of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa house Islamabad by armed forces. Islamabad police has confirmed registration of FIR against leading PTI leaders. However, names of nominees nominated in FIR yet to be made public.

The situation is turning worse after the expiry of an injured policeman who succumbed in Islamabad hospital and summoning of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly for discussing the situation erupted with arrest of Chief Minister and several others.

Though the PTI leaders are accusing the federal government for the arrest of deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan and other top PTI leaders, the matter in fact rests between the PTI and powerful military establishment. At the moment, the effective and powerful military establishment is not willing either to forgive deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan or to make him free. But in a bid to get the release of Imran Khan and his spouse, the PTI leadership is building pressure and criticism against the PML(N) led federal government.

According to an FIR registered by Islamabad police around 105 top persons including PTI leaders have been arrested, over 40 vehicles including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government controlled RESCUE 1122 vehicles and ambulances were also impounded by Islamabad and Punjab Police. The top Executive officer Chief Secretary Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (nominated and posted by Federal Government) has also directed Secretary Relief for submitting detailed reports of RESCUE resources (vehicles and personnel) used in PTI agitations/protests against the federal government.

Some of top PTI leaders are publicly reaffirming support and loyalty to Imran Khan and Ali Amin Gandhapur but the internal situation is different whereas some of them have stock of reservation over the confrontation-focused policies against military establishment and federal government. Just for filling the blanks or signing enrolment, provincial ministers, MP’s and other office holders are witnessed in selfies but later they disappear during firing of tear gas shells and lathi charges.

Politico-turmoil in Pakistan is detrimental to the safety of region aimed Middle East tension

Despite Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor’s frequent appeals for intervention, the federal government is playing the role of silent spectator. This mysterious role on the part of the federal government is also generating stock of questions and confusions. No one can deny the fact that Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandhapur is helpless before Imran Khan and reluctant to settle the issues through table talks with the federal government but it is also a fact that unlike of past, the federal government had failed in playing its due role in settling the issues or ensuring smooth working relations with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Politico-turmoil in Pakistan, especially allowing fueling an anarchy like situation in Khyber at the time when war clouds from the Middle East are hitting the rest of Asian Regions, relations between Kabul and Islamabad are  deteriorating day by day. Almost all powers and authorities have been monopolized by the powerful military establishment and no one amongst the political squad is capable of playing the role as mediator for reconciliation on all internal and external fronts. Almost all people from all over the country are uncertain and disappointed. Worries of common men are intensifying with each passing day, which is harmful for the very future of the country and its people.

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