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MIDDLE EAST

Organisations waging war against the Syrian army: Which organization, backed by whom, is attacking where?

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The attacks of the terrorist organizations led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which captured the rest of Idlib, all of Aleppo and the northern countryside of Hama in Syria, were followed by the attacks of the Turkish-backed FSA in Tal Rifaat, the U.S.-backed FSA in al-Bukamal and the YPG in Deir ez-Zor. The Syrian army looks disorganized in the attacks, which ‘coincided’ with a period when Russia and Iran, which support the Syrian government, were busy with their own agendas. The Syrian army’s unopposed retreat from Aleppo could have profound implications for Syria’s political future.

So which organizations are fighting in Syria, where and against whom? Which powers are supporting them and why?

1- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Idlib-Aleppo-Hama

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the leading terrorist organization targeting the Syrian army in the battlefields of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama.

The Fateh al-Mubin Operations Room, formed with the participation of HTS and other organizations, launched an attack against the Syrian army on 27 November under the name of “Operation Deterring Aggression”. The groups took control of Aleppo, 310 kilometers from the Syrian capital Damascus, and captured some small settlements towards Hama province. According to AA, the groups also took control of the settlements of Jalime, Alzeka, Beridej, Jubbeyin, Tal Meleh, Kirkat, Mughayyir and Mabtan in Hama, and the villages of Tuwayne, Huwayz, Sheria and Bab Taka in the Gab Plain.

A ‘commander’ from Fateh al-Mubin’s operations room, who requested anonymity, told Majalla that in addition to HTS, Jaysh al-Izzah and Jaysh al-Nasr, as well as some of the groups under the umbrella of the Turkish-backed FSA, such as the Nour al-Din Zengi Movement, the National Liberation Front and the Joint Force, are involved in attacks in the area.

Around 40,000 opposition fighters are involved in attacks against the Syrian army in Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. The commander said that the groups have about 80,000 fighters in reserve, all of whom have received military training in various forms of warfare and conflict, how to deal with circumstances, how to use weapons and how to confront regime forces and their allies.

HTS, formerly al-Nusra, was formed under the leadership of Abu Mohammed Golani, who was sent to Syria in 2011 by the Islamic State of Iraq (ISIS), the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

When Golani, the leader of al-Nusra, which had grown rapidly by exploiting the chaos in Syria, and Baghdadi fell out, Baghdadi announced the dissolution of al-Nusra in 2013. In the same statement, Baghdadi announced the creation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and declared that ISIL was expanding into Syria.

Meanwhile, al-Nusra declared its allegiance to al-Qaeda, but this did not prevent ISIS from seizing the vast majority of al-Nusra’s human, ammunition, and financial resources in Syria. The crisis between the two organizations also went to al-Qaeda’s central arbitration center, but the crisis could not be resolved.

Because of its links to al-Qaeda, al-Nusra was quickly placed on terrorist lists by various countries. Turkey added it to its list of terrorist organizations in 2014. From 2014, as ISIS spread rapidly across Syria, al-Nusra and other groups were trapped in the Idlib region.

Russia’s intervention in Syria and the Syrian army’s rapid operations to ensure territorial integrity led al-Nusra to unite with other groups. To this end, it announced that it had severed its ties with al-Qaeda and adopted the name Jabhat Fateh al-Sham Front (JFC).

Of course, the ‘break’ with al-Qaeda was only superficial. For al-Nusra’s move came immediately after al-Qaeda’s leadership advised it to ‘do whatever is necessary for the benefit of the jihad in Damascus and to unite with other organizations’. However, even the name changes only resulted in the unification of the SFC with a few small groups.

In 2017, HTS was formed under the military leadership of Golani, along with a few other groups such as the Nureddin Zengi Movement, Liwa al-Haq and others. HTS declared its goal to be “the rule of Sharia and the rejection of secularism”.

In January 2017, a ceasefire was declared in Idlib as part of Astana, excluding ISIS and al-Nusra. However, HTS took advantage of the ceasefire to engage in a confrontation with Ahrar al-Sham, the other main group in Idlib, in the summer of 2017, and suffered a major defeat. Since then, HTS has rapidly expanded and recruited other organizations, either by force or voluntarily, and by the end of 2019 it controlled 95% of Idlib. With around 30,000 fighters, it is the most effective armed force in the region.

2- Turkey-backed FSA (SNA): Northern and Northern countryside of Aleppo

The Turkish-controlled FSA (Syrian National Army – SNA), the most ideologically mixed front organization, is the military organization of the Coalition of Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (SMDK). They also have a government called the ‘Syrian Interim Government’.

There are dozens of organizations within the SNA, such as Faylaq al-Sham, Jaish al-Ahrar, Jaish al-Nasr, Ahrar al-Sham, Nour al-Din Zengi. Many of these organization are known to have received military and financial support from the CIA-controlled Military Operations Coordination Room and Gulf states in the past.

While some of the SNA-affiliated organizations took part in the HTS-led Aleppo offensive, some of them captured the Tal Rifaat district center as part of Operation Dawn of Freedom launched against the PKK/YPG.

According to Majalla, the day after the HTS launched its offensive, Turkey summoned the SNA factions in its area of influence in northern Aleppo for a secret emergency meeting. One of the SNA commanders said that during the meeting an agreement was reached with the Turkish side to expel the YPG from the areas it controls in the neighborhoods of Ashrafiya and Sheikh Maqsoud in northern Aleppo, Tal Rifaat and Manbij in the northern countryside of Aleppo, in parallel with the HTS operation.

3- PKK/YPG: East of the Euphrates in Deir ez-Zor

The US-backed terrorist organization PKK/YPG, which was forced to withdraw from Tel Rifaat after the Turkish-backed FSA attack, has launched an attack to drive the Syrian army out of 7 villages in Deir ez-Zor province, east of the Euphrates.

According to AA, the PKK/YPG launched an offensive against the Syrian army in the villages of Murrat, Hashsham, Mazlum, Tabiya, Husseiniye, Salihiyyah and Hatlah, and clashes are ongoing.

The Syrian army is known to be present in the area from Deir ez-Zor city center to al-Bukamal district near the Syrian-Iraqi border.

The PKK/YPG occupy almost all of Deir ez-Zor east of the Euphrates River, while the center of the province and other rural areas are under the control of the Syrian army.

4- US-backed FSA: Iraqi border in Deir ez-Zor

The U.S.-backed FSA launched an attack on the towns of al-Bukamal and Meyadin in Tanf, where US forces are stationed in the Syrian provinces of Homs and Deir ez-Zor.

The aim of these attacks is to sever Syria’s link with Iraq. Iranian groups supporting the Syrian army are concentrated in al-Bukamal, close to the Syrian-Iraqi border. This area is critical for the land link with Iranian-aligned forces in Iraq.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s reserve crisis deepens amid Gaza plans

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As the Israeli army prepares to intensify its attacks in Gaza, the crisis within its reserve forces, considered the “backbone of the army,” is growing.

According to a report in Haaretz, tens of thousands of reserve soldiers are expected to be recalled to duty as Israel prepares to escalate its operations in Gaza. However, army officials report that motivation is declining, and an increasing number of reservists are stating they will not report for duty. Officials indicate that the reasons for this drop in motivation include war fatigue, the lack of clear objectives for the ongoing conflict, and anger towards government policies.

A senior reserve commander informed Haaretz that brigade and battalion commanders are handling numerous cases involving reserve soldiers refusing to report for duty. The most frequently cited reason is the perception that the government is making insufficient efforts to rescue the hostages. This is followed by anger over the proposed law exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service and discontent regarding judicial reform plans.

Another reserve officer reported that soldiers and commanders suffer from severe burnout after serving hundreds of days over the past year. He expressed that they struggle to commit to new missions not only for political reasons but also due to physical and psychological fatigue.

Among those refusing service is combat pilot Alon Gur, who publicly announced his resignation last week after 16 years of service. Declaring his departure from the Air Force, Gur stated on social media, “The line has been crossed,” accusing the government of “prioritizing politics over human life.” After Gur was relieved of duty, other reserve soldiers began taking similar actions, causing significant concern within the army command.

According to Israeli army data, as of February, the reserve participation rate stood at 85%. At the start of the war, however, almost all called-up reservists reported for duty, marking the highest reserve mobilization in Israeli history.

Israel, with its relatively small population, relies on its reserve forces system to sustain the army during prolonged conflicts. This system, which involves recalling individuals who have returned to civilian life after compulsory military service back to active duty when needed, is considered one of the cornerstones of Israel’s security doctrine. This system allows tens of thousands of experienced soldiers to be rapidly deployed to the front lines during times of war or crisis.

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MIDDLE EAST

Hamas retains guerrilla capacity and political role in Gaza, says US intelligence

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According to the 2025 Threat Assessment Report from the US Intelligence Community, the umbrella organization for 18 separate intelligence agencies, Hamas retains the capacity to sustain low-intensity guerrilla warfare and remains a primary political actor in Gaza. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, noted as weakened post-war, is still described as posing a threat to Israel and the US.

According to a report in Haaretz, the assessment predicted that “tension will persist regarding the situation in Gaza, as well as in the Israel-Hezbollah and Israel-Iran dynamics” and stated that Hamas “will continue to pose a threat to Israel’s security even in its weakened state.”

The report also noted that Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel disrupted the diplomatic progress achieved through the Abraham Accords and the trend toward stability in the Middle East.

Pointing out that Hamas has preserved thousands of its fighters and a significant portion of its underground infrastructure, the report warned that the organization “likely used the ceasefire to bolster its military capacity and replenish ammunition stocks.”

The report stated, “Hamas retains the capacity to reignite low-intensity guerrilla resistance and will remain the dominant political actor in Gaza for the foreseeable future. The low expectations among the parties for a permanent ceasefire and the absence of a post-war political and reconstruction plan point towards instability that could last for years.”

Noting that support for Hamas among Palestinians in the West Bank is higher compared to the Palestinian Authority, the report assessed that “the long-term trajectory of Israeli-Palestinian relations will depend on developments in the increasingly unstable West Bank.”

The report also highlighted that the Palestinian Authority’s capacity to provide security and public services in the West Bank is progressively weakening, emphasizing that Israeli operations in the West Bank, attacks by Jewish settlers, and the activities of Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas, could further deepen the governance crisis.

It added, “A potential leadership change within the Palestinian Authority could exacerbate governance challenges. Furthermore, how Israel will govern post-war Gaza and whether its operations in the West Bank will undermine the Palestinian Authority will also be crucial factors.”

The report also drew attention to the fragile dynamics between Israel and Lebanon, warning that a resumption of large-scale Israeli operations in Lebanon could heighten sectarian tensions, weaken Lebanese security forces, and worsen the humanitarian crisis.

The report concluded, “Despite being weakened, Hezbollah retains the capacity to target Americans and US interests regionally and globally, and even, to a limited extent, on US soil.”

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MIDDLE EAST

US presents conditions to HTS for potential sanctions relief

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According to six sources speaking to Reuters, the US has presented Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which seized power in Syria, with a list of conditions to fulfill in exchange for partial sanctions relief. These conditions reportedly include ensuring foreigners do not hold senior management roles.

Two individuals, an American official and a Syrian source knowledgeable about the matter, told the news agency that US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Levant and Syria Natasha Franceschi conveyed the list of demands during a face-to-face meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani. The meeting took place at the Syria donors conference in Brussels on March 18.

The sources indicated that the conditions put forward by the US include Syria “destroying its remaining chemical weapons stockpiles” and “cooperating in the fight against terrorism.”

Additionally, American officials and one source in Washington stated that another demand involves ensuring foreign militants are not appointed to senior government positions within Syria’s administrative structure. Criticism had previously arisen over Syria’s appointment of thousands of foreign militants—including Uyghurs, Jordanians, Chechens, and individuals of other nationalities—to the defense ministry.

According to two sources, Washington also requested that Syria appoint a liaison officer to assist in efforts to locate US journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria more than a decade ago.

The source also indicated that the US wants Syria to issue a statement supporting its own territorial integrity.

Washington reportedly did not provide a specific timeline for the fulfillment of these conditions.

While the HTS administration has not commented on the matter, the US State Department stated, “We do not discuss our private diplomatic conversations publicly.”

Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce mentioned last week that Washington is monitoring the actions of the interim administrators.

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