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Pezeshkian, newly elected-president and calculations of Iranian leaders

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In the past few days, important political events happened in Washington, Tehran, London and Paris. In current world situations, elections are not only an internal issue of a country because the results of these elections would definitely affect the future of economies, policies, and military arrangements in a larger point of view.

When it was announced that Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist president-elect of Iran, had won the presidential election, many people in different countries rushed to find his background because it was felt necessary to know about him. He is the first Iranian president who has no bear and he is very much interested in bringing reforms and to mend ties with the world community.

He is the first one who has not reached the presidency of Iran through a religious institution, although many former presidents of Iran, such as Khamenei, Khatami, Rouhani, and Raisi, have risen from that address and position.

Also, Pezeshkian did not have a position in Iran’s military and security institutions. But it doesn’t mean he doesn’t support the military institutions. He and his colleagues in the Iranian parliament, when some countries called the IRGC a terrorist organization, they put on IRGC uniforms to protest this decision and to show support to the IRGC.

Pezeshkian was born in the city of Mahabad. This city is the place that once witnessed the establishment of the Kurdish government, a government whose candle was extinguished soon.

Pezeshkian’s father is Azari and his mother is Kurdish. Many people believe that this gives him the power to understand the situation and demands of the minorities in Iran. He studied medicine and specialized in heart surgery. During the era of Mohammad Khatami, he was the Minister of Health and represented the people of Tabriz in the parliament for five terms.

The general perception was that Iran’s religious leader prefers to be a conservative and radical person like Saeed Jalili, the president of Iran. It was predicted that with Jalili’s victory, Iran’s policies will become more radical, at the same time that it seems that the presidency of the United States will go to the person who ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani; Donald Trump. However, this did not happen. Accurate reading of Iran’s policies is not an easy task, and it probably requires patience similar to the patience of those who weave the Iranian carpet.

Why did the leader of Iran allow Pezeshkian to take part in the presidential elections and finally win?

In 2021, the Guardian Council, which has the duty to consider the worthiness of the people who participate in the presidential elections, did not allow Pezeshkian to enter the presidential race.

Last February, the Guardian Council did not allow Pezeshkian to participate in the parliamentary elections, because in the opinion of this council, he did not adhere to the “principles of the revolution”.

This judgment comes from the fact that he had spoken against the opinion of the regime about popular protests. Despite this, he was able to participate in the elections with Khamenei’s intervention. The truth is that the Pezeshkian criticized the severity of the protests, especially the way the religious police dealt with Mehsa Amini, which caused her death, but at the same time, the Pezeshkian believed that the protests were harming the country.

Masoud Pezeshkian, a veteran reformist lawmaker elected as a new president of of Iran after he defeated conservative rival Saeed Jalili in a presidential runoff election.

The image presented by Pezeshkian in the past years shows him as a “conservative with reformist tendencies”.

He does not have the ability to give a passionate speech to stimulate the feelings of the masses and marginalized people, a skill that Ahmadinejad could handle well. He is a moderate person. He is a doctor who believes in science and chooses his words carefully.

Pezeshkian willing to remove sanctions and work to improve the economy

At the same time, he is a realist and aware of the system and also aware of the underbelly of power balances and knows who makes the big decisions.

He tries to open the windows to its residents under the roof that he has built. Pezeshkian has talked about the benefits of negotiating with the West so that part of the painful sanctions can be removed. Sanctions that, in his words, have made the lives of many Iranians “miserable”.

Khamenei knew very well that the participation of Pezeshkhian in election contests would force Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Hassan Khomeini (grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran) and Ali Akbar Natiq Nouri to support him.

Analyzes regarding Pezeshkhian reaching the presidency have been made from many angles, although everyone agrees that the major and final decision on domestic and foreign issues depends on Khamenei’s office.

Some believe that maybe the leader of Iran has come to the conclusion that the achievement of a radical person like Saeed Jalili to the presidency will increase Iran’s tension with the outside world. A tension that has been growing on a daily basis. The Iranian leader is willing to reduce the level of anxiety especially at the time when there is a common belief in the West that Iran is very close to the stage of producing nuclear weapons.

In this situation, Iran needs some de-escalation both with foreign parties and with the masses of people inside Iran, especially considering that if Trump wins the US presidential election, Iran needs to deal with a storm of events that will affect international relations. The effect will be to interact more quickly.

Also, Iran currently needs an opportunity to strengthen and digest the successes achieved by Soleimani’s advances in some regional plans.

Perhaps, the leader of Iran accepts the point that the ruling system in Iran has been more successful abroad than inside this country. But, when we look at the high statistics of poverty and unemployment and lack of development in this country, this claim seems irrational.

In addition, Iran is involved in the Gaza war and other wars in the Middle East, and the management of this complex scene requires the creation of peace inside the country.

A number of analysts are of the opinion that Khamenei preferred a non-religious person to become president so that he could not participate in the competition for the seat of the future religious leader or influence it, although this would also help to revive the role of the reformists and restore their image.

The world was full of events last week, but political atmosphere in US was interesting and painful

The world was full of events last week, but it was easier to understand other events than what happened in Iran.

The UN ended 14 years of Conservative rule. Rishi Sunak left power, and Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labor Party came to power on stage. British institutions have proven that they can function without falling apart.

Instead, the French election showed the depth of divisions in French politics and warned of tense years ahead.

These days, the scenes that were shown in the US political atmosphere were interesting and at the same time painful. Joe Biden is trying to shoulder the heavy burden of being eighty years old. He uses his memory beyond his capacity and shows disregard for the advice given to him that he should withdraw from the electoral competition due to his old age.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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ASIA

Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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ASIA

Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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