Russia’s oil exports have reached their highest volume of the year so far, despite intensifying competition in the Indian market, one of the country’s key destinations for crude shipments.

According to Bloomberg, citing vessel-tracking data and port agency reports, competition in India has increased after Iran boosted its exports following the suspension of US sanctions.

Weekly data showed that Russia’s average daily oil shipments rose to 4.11 million barrels in the week ending June 21, marking the highest level recorded this year.

The figure stood at 3.9 million barrels per day the previous week. During the latest reporting period, 38 tankers loaded a total of 28.79 million barrels of Russian crude, compared with 27.29 million barrels transported by 37 vessels in the preceding week.

The volume of Russian oil at sea also climbed to 125 million barrels, up 26% from the roughly 100 million-barrel low recorded in April. The report noted that nearly all of this volume was aboard vessels in transit.

Declining global prices weigh on revenues

According to analysts, the gross value of Russia’s oil exports declined as Urals crude prices fell in line with lower prices for global benchmarks including Brent, WTI and Dubai crude.

During the four-week period ending June 21, weekly export revenues fell to $1.72 billion from $2.02 billion in the period ending before June 14.

The decline in prices was attributed to progress in US-Iran talks.

The price of Urals crude fell by $8.10 per barrel to $69.98 at Baltic ports and by $7.90 to $69.37 at Black Sea ports.

Russia’s ESPO blend declined by $7.40 to $79.87 per barrel, while prices for oil delivered to India fell for a ninth consecutive week, dropping by $8.80 per barrel to $90.36, according to Argus Media data.

Russia’s oil shipments to its Asian customers rose to 3.73 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2022.

However, volumes aboard tankers with China and India explicitly listed as destinations declined, while shipments carried by vessels without a specified final destination increased to approximately 1.95 million barrels per day. Of that total, 1.56 million barrels per day was carried by tankers departing western ports and heading toward intermediary locations such as Port Said or the Suez Canal, as well as Pacific tankers without a clearly identified delivery point.

Bloomberg said Russia’s global oil exports could decline if shipments from the Middle East increase following the US-Iran understanding that envisages the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war, approximately 20% of the world’s oil consumption was transported through that route.

Reuters, citing data from international analytics firm Kpler, reported that Russian oil and coal shipments to India are expected to reach a record 2.55 million barrels per day in June, up from 2.13 million barrels per day in May.

India’s increased purchases of Russian oil came after the administration of US President Donald Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil purchases amid an energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. Trump said in June that the sanctions waivers could soon be withdrawn because of falling global oil prices.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz accelerated the return of Iranian oil to the market after the United States pledged to ease sanctions and allow its sale.

Bloomberg reported that Iran’s openly declared oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had risen to their highest level since the start of the war.

The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on the night of June 18 providing for a cessation of hostilities, negotiations on a final agreement within 60 days, the gradual lifting of sanctions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Following the announcement of the agreement, Brent crude fell below $83 per barrel for the first time in three months.

However, two days later Tehran announced that it had closed the strait again, accusing Washington of violating the agreement and citing Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

American businesses are waiting for a peace agreement and the lifting of sanctions before committing to a broader return to the Russian market, according to Robert Agee, president and chief executive of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham).

In an interview with Russian business daily Vedomosti on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Agee discussed prospects for restoring trade and economic ties between Russia and the United States.

Agee said that since February 2025, discussions have frequently focused on both a potential US mediating role in resolving the Ukraine conflict and a possible timeline for the return of American companies to Russia.

Referring to expectations that diplomatic negotiations and efforts to revive bilateral economic relations could proceed simultaneously, Agee said that despite the passage of time, neither track had produced a significant breakthrough.

The AmCham chief attributed the lack of progress to domestic and foreign policy dynamics within the United States and said American companies were now concentrating primarily on the eventual resolution of the conflict.

While describing efforts to repair economic ties as slow but steady, Agee identified the absence of a peace agreement as the principal obstacle.

“The biggest problem is that no agreement has yet been reached to resolve the conflict in Ukraine,” he said. “As a result, all US sanctions packages remain in force. We have repeatedly pushed for the removal of certain sanctions. Although I believe the new administration in Washington wants to improve relations with Russia, particularly from a trade, economic and business perspective, the continuing conflict has prevented any major breakthrough.”

‘President Trump wants to ease sanctions pressure wherever legally possible’

Addressing the future of sanctions and their impact on economic relations, Agee noted that restrictions differ according to their legal basis.

He said sanctions imposed through presidential executive orders could be eased much more quickly than those enacted through legislation.

“There are different types of sanctions. Some were introduced through presidential executive orders. Those could be removed tomorrow,” Agee said. “For example, the investment ban imposed by former US President Joe Biden. We believe that decision was entirely wrong, particularly for American business. On the other hand, there are sanctions approved by Congress, and those will be much more difficult to remove. Once the conflict ends, we know that President Donald Trump and his administration intend to reduce sanctions pressure to the maximum extent legally possible.”

Agee said the American Chamber of Commerce remained the only organisation directly advocating before US authorities for sanctions relief on behalf of American businesses.

“Companies pursue these requests exclusively through us, through the American Chamber of Commerce,” he said. “We are the only organisation trying to persuade the US government to lift certain sanctions. Our immediate priority is the removal of the investment ban. We are closely focused on sectors such as cosmetics and civil aviation. We are trying to convince the US government that sanctions in these areas can and should be eased even before the conflict is fully resolved.”

‘Russia has enormous potential to help our companies overcome global challenges’

Discussing sectors that would benefit most from renewed commercial ties, Agee said the opportunities available in Russia remained strategically important for American firms.

He pointed to Russia’s role in global supply chains and its potential contribution to addressing economic challenges.

“Russia has enormous potential to help our companies overcome many of today’s global challenges,” Agee said. “That applies both to high energy prices and to the fertiliser sector. Russia is one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers. These and similar products could easily be exported to the United States.”

He added that numerous American technology and aviation companies were closely monitoring developments.

“These are companies that previously operated here and were forced to leave. They did not want to leave. That is why they are now looking for opportunities to resume their business activities.”

Agee said future economic relations would extend beyond trade and include large-scale investment projects.

Noting that American companies had invested more than $100 billion in Russia in previous years, he said investment had traditionally formed the foundation of US economic engagement with the country.

“I think relations will develop both in terms of trade and joint projects,” he said. “But the core US approach to economic relations with Russia has always been investment. Our companies invested more than $100 billion in the Russian economy over many years.”

Some US companies chose to remain in Russia and continue operating successfully, he added, maintaining factories and employing tens of thousands of workers.

“I believe energy companies will be first in line when it comes to new investment in the Russian economy,” Agee said. “Another important area for potential cooperation and investment is the space sector. I believe there is literally trillions of dollars in potential in that field.”

‘President Trump would welcome new investment from Russia’

Asked whether the US market remained open to Russian capital, Agee said the Trump administration generally welcomed foreign investment.

Recalling previous investment projects in the aluminium and fertiliser sectors, he said opportunities for Russian investors continued to exist.

“I think the US market is open to Russian investment and would welcome it,” Agee said. “There were investment projects in aluminium and fertilisers in the past. Opportunities remain. It is difficult to judge how prepared Russian investors are given sanctions-related risks, but in general I can say that the Trump administration would welcome new investment from Russia.”

Agee said American companies were prepared to return if restrictions were eased, even if sanctions were not completely removed.

He stressed that each company would make decisions based on its own risk assessments.

“I know several companies that are ready to return to Russia and restart operations at the first opportunity,” he said. “The critical factor is ensuring that these initial returns are successful. The first companies to come back will demonstrate that everything is functioning normally, and that will encourage others to follow.”

He added that the process would not begin overnight, as technical specifications and legal documentation would first need to be prepared.

“Based on information available to me, discussions on these issues are already taking place.”

Agee also identified data centres as one of the most promising future investment areas, citing Russia’s abundant electricity supplies, cold climate and highly skilled information technology workforce.

“In my personal view, one of the most promising sectors is data centres,” he said. “These facilities require cheap electricity, which Russia has in abundance, a cold climate and a well-trained IT workforce. Russia possesses all of these advantages. I believe this sector has a very strong future, but sanctions must first be removed. After that, developments could move quickly.”

‘Commercial dialogue has become much easier under Trump’

Agee said AmCham maintained productive relations with both Russian and American authorities and continued to serve as a bridge between the two countries.

Comparing the administrations of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, he argued that maintaining commercial dialogue had become significantly easier.

“We have excellent relations with both sides,” he said. “Together with Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, we serve as the only commercial bridge between Russia and the United States. It was much more difficult to preserve that bridge under the Biden administration, but the process has become much easier under President Trump.”

According to Agee, the Trump administration has demonstrated a strong commitment to improving economic dialogue with Russia.

“Today we see two channels of dialogue functioning simultaneously, both cultural and commercial,” he said. “Maintaining communication is the most important element. Under Biden, almost no channels of communication remained open. Now we are moving in the right direction and are also conducting very active cooperation with the Russian government.”

Agee argued that the priorities of the current US administration align closely with the interests of American businesses and said broader geopolitical developments were reinforcing the logic of closer economic cooperation.

He pointed to instability in the Middle East and risks to global shipping routes as factors strengthening the case for partnership.

“The administration’s priorities and the interests of business are fully aligned,” he said. “I think recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz have once again convinced Washington that Russia and the United States are natural partners. America needs what Russia has, and the same is true in reverse. America possesses technologies and products that Russia wants to buy. This is a relationship of genuine interdependence.”

As the world watches tensions escalate in the Middle East, he added, the rationale for deeper economic cooperation between Russia and the United States has become increasingly persuasive.

Concluding the interview, Agee highlighted the importance of easing visa procedures and restoring diplomatic missions between the two countries.

He said overcoming travel barriers was essential to reviving commercial ties.

“This is an extremely relevant issue that we raise constantly,” Agee said. “In the past there was at least a common understanding that diplomatic visas should be addressed first and that consulates should resume operations. We will continue recommending in both Washington and Moscow that this issue be resolved as quickly as possible. Solving it would greatly benefit the business community. We remain hopeful.”

Ukraine’s armed forces launched a major drone attack on Moscow during the night of June 18, with Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin saying that a total of 194 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) approaching the capital were shot down.

According to figures released by Russian authorities, the attack was the largest drone assault on Moscow since the start of Russia’s military campaign against Ukraine.

The previous highest number of drones directed at Moscow in a single night was recorded on March 11, when officials said 74 UAVs had been intercepted and destroyed.

In addition, authorities reported on May 17 that air defence systems had intercepted and shot down more than 120 drones heading toward the capital over the course of a single day.

One of the targets of the overnight attack was reportedly the Moscow Oil Refinery (MNPZ) in the Kapotnya district. The facility had also come under attack two days earlier and subsequently suspended operations.

The latest strike on the refinery was reported to have triggered a major fire. According to calculations by the Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+, a total of seven separate fire locations were observed within the facility’s grounds.

Some drone debris also fell in the area of the Sadovod shopping centre. One of the buildings at the complex was damaged and caught fire.

Drone fragments were also reported to have damaged the roof of the Belaya Dacha shopping centre. Moscow Region Governor Andrey Vorobyov said: “A fire broke out. Information regarding the size of the fire and possible casualties is being clarified.”

Residential high-rise buildings in the Novyye Kotelniki district of Moscow were also damaged during the attacks. Apartment buildings in Zhukovsky and Lyubertsy likewise sustained damage.

Detached houses in the village of Stepanovo near Elektrostal were reported damaged. Homes in the village of Masnovo-Zhukovo were also affected.

Private residences in Kryukovo and Pavlovsky Posad were also reported to have suffered damage as a result of the attacks.

Authorities said one woman was injured in the incidents.

Due to the scale of the attack, Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed restrictions at all airports in Moscow.

Passengers were reportedly evacuated from Sheremetyevo Airport. The evacuations were said to include passengers already on board aircraft.

Aeroflot urged passengers on cancelled flights not to travel to the airport. The airline recommended that ticket refunds and rebooking procedures be completed remotely.

According to information cited by the Ostorozhno, Novosti channel, approximately 250 arriving and departing flights at Moscow airports were affected by delays.

Russia’s Interior Ministry also announced that several roads around the Moscow Oil Refinery had been closed to traffic.

Authorities further reported restrictions on traffic in both directions along a section of the Moscow Ring Road (MKAD) between Novoryazanskoye Highway (Volgogradsky Prospekt) and Kashirskoye Highway.

According to information published by VChK-OGPU, authorities also closed Red Square.

The same source reported that armed security personnel equipped with machine guns were stationed around the Kremlin’s towers and walls, as well as near Lenin’s Mausoleum.

According to the Russian Defence Ministry’s overnight summary, air defence units intercepted and destroyed a total of 555 Ukrainian drones across various regions of Russia.

The ministry said the drones were detected in the airspace of 17 different regions.

The same statement added that drone activity was also recorded over Crimea and in the airspace above the Sea of Azov.