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SNA enters Manbij as Israel enters Sheikh Mountain

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The Turkish-backed FSA, known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), captured Manbij, which is occupied by the U.S.-backed PKK/YPG. Meanwhile, the Israeli army mobilized to take full control of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights.

The lightning advance of the organization’s led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and their entry into the capital Damascus was one of the most important turning points in the Middle East in decades.

There have been reports of looting as well as celebrations following the departure of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Organizations are releasing prisoners from Syrian jails.

But while hopes for a relatively ‘bloodless’ transition have been raised in the capital with Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali’s declaration that he is ready to ‘cooperate’ with any popularly elected leader and ‘hand over’ power, military mobilization continues in the north and south of the country.

This morning the SNA, backed by Turkey, advanced from the town of Ureyme to the west of Manbij and the village of Um Dadat to the north, as well as from the northern and western lines of the town, driving the PKK/YPG out of the area. The YPG thus lost its main stronghold west of the Euphrates. Search and sweep operations for mines and booby traps are reportedly underway in the area.

On the first day of the operation, launched on 1 December, the SNA pushed the PKK/YPG out of Tel Rifaat district center.

West of the Euphrates, Arab tribes from Deir ez-Zor began to push back the PKK/YPG. The tribes expelled the PKK/YPG from the Albukamal and Mayadeen neighborhoods on the Iraqi-Syrian border in Deir ez-Zor. The terrorist organization had entered these areas after the withdrawal of the Syrian army.

Israel seizes the opportunity

Meanwhile, in southern Syria, Israel has entered Sheikh Mountain on the Syrian side of the occupied Golan Heights. Israeli aircraft continue to strike targets in Syria.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar gave the press an assessment of the agenda, particularly the developments in Syria.

Sa’ar, who tried to legitimize the Israeli army’s attacks on Syria, made the following statements Our only interest is the security of Israel and its citizens. That is why we attacked strategic weapons systems, such as chemical weapons or long-range missiles and rockets, which remain ‘so that they do not fall into the hands of extremists’.

Sa’ar claimed that the Israeli army’s seizure of the buffer zone in the occupied Golan Heights, under the pretext of developments in Syria, was a ‘limited and temporary step’.

Saar also expressed his dissatisfaction with the SDF’s operation against the terrorist organization in Manbij, demanding that this operation be ‘stopped’.

Saar stated that they had discussed the operation organized in Manbij with many countries, especially the U.S.

The Israeli minister claimed that the international community has an obligation towards the PKK/YPG terrorist organization, which he said ‘ensures stability’ in Syria.

Turkey, U.S. in full engagement

On the other hand, a U.S. official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said Turkey and the U.S. were in full engagement in the process.

In this context, U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Bill Burns and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held meetings with their Turkish counterparts, the official said, adding that these meetings had constructive effects.

On U.S. relations with HTS, the official said it was clear that the group would play an important role in the Syrian transition.

The official stated that the U.S. relationship with HTS will be conducted in an appropriate manner by putting ‘U.S. interests’ first, noting that it will be important to see how the rhetoric of HTS officials is translated into action.

In addition, U.S. President Joe Biden, assessing the collapse of the Syrian government, said that this development was ‘a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel dealt’ to Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah ‘with the unstinting support of the United States’.

“For many years, Assad’s main supporters have been Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, but in the last week that support has collapsed because all three are in a much weaker position than when I took over,” Biden said at a press conference on developments in Syria. Biden argued that Iran had been weakened by U.S. and Israeli strikes, and Russia by Ukraine’s strong stance, so that these countries no longer had the power to support the ‘terrible Assad regime’.

Our approach has changed the balance of power in the Middle East through a combination of support for our partners, sanctions and diplomacy, and targeted military force when necessary. Now we see new opportunities for the Syrian people and the wider region.

“We will work with our partners and stakeholders in Syria to seize the opportunities and manage the risks of Syria’s transition,” Biden said.

Biden stressed that stability and U.S. personnel would continue to be maintained in eastern Syria and that the mission against ISIS would be maintained.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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