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The expected meeting took place amid tension over Taiwan

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden met in Bali, Indonesia on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) Summit, at a time when tensions between the two countries is at a high level. Shaking hands in front of their national flags, the two leaders posed smiling for the cameras.

Meeting face-to-face for the first time since Biden took office in January 2021, the two leaders gave the message of “cooperation despite differences” at the end of the 3-hour meeting.

In the meeting, which coincided with the tension between the USA and China, especially the Taiwan crisis, the parties emphasized the responsibility of the two countries to develop cooperation.

‘Relations should be chart right course’ 

Stating that the current state of China-US bilateral relations does not comply with the basic interests of the two countries and their peoples and the common expectations of the international community, Xi noted that they should chart the right course for the development of bilateral relations and push bilateral ties back to the track of healthy and stable development.

Pointing out that this meeting has attracted worldwide attention, Xi Jinping called on the two countries, together with other countries, to add hope to world peace, give confidence in global stability and provide dynamism to collective development.

He expressed willingness to continue candid and in-depth exchanges with the US president on strategic issues in China-US ties and key global and regional issues.

Responsibility to manage differences

U.S. President Biden stated that the two countries should avoid conflict, pointing out that the leaders of the United States and China “have a responsibility to manage their differences and find ways to work together”.

“As the leaders of our two nations, we share responsibility, in my view, to show that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from turning into conflict, and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation,” Biden said in his remarks during the bilateral meeting.

Taiwan warning

In the first statements made after the meeting of the two leaders, it was noteworthy that issues such as Taiwan, Ukraine, the chip crisis, and economic competition were not on the agenda.

However, Biden brought up a number of debated topics during the meeting, according to the White House, including raising U.S. objections to China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan”, Beijing’s “non-market economic practices”, and practices in “Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, and human rights more broadly”.

On the other hand, according to Xinhua news agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged U.S. President Joe Biden during their meeting that the Taiwan question was the “very core of China’s core interests” and the “first red line” in bilateral ties that must not be crossed. 

Beijing-Washington line

Washington-Beijing relations have recently been shaken by escalating tensions over a series of agendas, ranging from US officials’ statements and practices regarding Taiwan and Hong Kong that violate the one-China principle, and US restrictions on Chinese technology.

But U.S. officials said there have been quiet efforts by both Beijing and Washington over the past two months to repair relations.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters in Bali earlier the meeting aimed to stabilise their relationship and  to create a “more certain atmosphere” for U.S. businesses.

The two leaders, who have made five phone or video calls since Biden became president in January 2021, most recently met in person during the Obama administration, when Biden was vice president.

Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese President Xi suspended his foreign visits for about 2.5 years and did not prefer face-to-face diplomacy.

Xi hosted Indonesian President Joko Widodo in Beijing for the first time in July, made his first overseas visit to Kazakhstan in September, and then went to Uzbekistan and attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Diplomacy

Armenia signals potential complete withdrawal from CSTO

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Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan announced that Yerevan might decide to withdraw entirely from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if member states fail to “demonstrate a clear political stance” regarding Azerbaijan’s actions. Kostanyan emphasized that Armenia is no longer making insinuations but is speaking very openly.

According to the Novosti-Armenia news agency, Kostanyan stated, “Ultimately, if our partners in the CSTO, including the Russian Federation, do not make the political statements that were mentioned several years ago after the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, then Armenia will make a final decision.”

The Deputy Minister also underscored that Armenia, as a sovereign state, will determine the right time for its next steps.

Membership was frozen

Relations between Armenia, Russia, and the CSTO deteriorated following the conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, after which Yerevan formally requested support from its allies.

Following this process, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan repeatedly criticized the CSTO for not assisting Yerevan.

Pashinyan described the organization as a “bubble alliance,” claiming it was “planning a war” against Armenia alongside Baku.

Last February, Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that Armenia had frozen its participation in the CSTO. By May, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the country would refuse to finance the organization’s activities.

Intelligence report points in the same direction

In January of this year, a public report released by the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that the country has no intention of returning to full participation in the CSTO in the near future.

The report noted, “We find it highly unlikely that the reasons that led to Armenia suspending its membership will change in 2025. Based on this situation, the organization’s prestige continues to be seriously questioned and has become a ’cause for reflection’ for other member countries.”

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BRICS internal trade volume hits the $1 trillion mark

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Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), announced that the internal trade volume among BRICS countries has reached $1 trillion.

In a statement on his Telegram channel, Dmitriev noted that surpassing this significant milestone confirms the strengthening of economic ties between member states and the bloc’s growing role in shaping the new global economic architecture.

He also emphasized that Russia continues to strengthen trade relations, particularly through the BRICS Business Council, in line with the directives of President Vladimir Putin.

BRICS’ share will continue to grow, Putin says

During a plenary session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled that at the beginning of the 21st century, BRICS countries accounted for only one-fifth of the global economy, whereas today this figure has reached 40%.

The Russian leader stated that this share will continue to grow, describing it as a “medical fact.” According to Putin, this growth will primarily be driven by the countries of the Global South.

In April, Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, also said that the BRICS countries, operating on principles of consensus, have become a key force in the world economy.

BRICS expansion agenda

Initially composed of five countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—BRICS expanded in 2024 with the inclusion of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt.

In January of this year, Indonesia became the bloc’s tenth full member.

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Xi Jinping to miss BRICS summit in Rio for the first time

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Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.

According to multiple sources cited by the South China Morning Post on Tuesday, this marks the first time Xi will miss the gathering of leaders from major emerging economies.

Officials familiar with the matter stated that Beijing informed the Brazilian government of a scheduling conflict. Premier Li Qiang is expected to lead the Chinese delegation in Xi’s place, a similar arrangement to the 2023 G20 summit in India.

Chinese officials involved in the preparations suggested Xi’s absence is due to his two meetings with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva within the past year. The first occurred during the G20 summit and a state visit to Brasília last November, while the second took place at the China-CELAC forum in Beijing this May.

Xi has never before missed a BRICS summit. In 2023, he was scheduled to deliver a speech at the meeting in South Africa but, at the last minute, sent Commerce Minister Wang Wentao instead. Beijing provided no official explanation for the change.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Xi participated in BRICS meetings virtually, with Russia hosting in 2020 and China in 2021.

On Tuesday, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry told the Post it “would not comment on the internal deliberations of foreign delegations.” The Chinese embassy in Brazil did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, “information regarding participation in the summit will be shared at the appropriate time.” Guo added that China supports Brazil’s BRICS presidency and aims to “promote deeper cooperation” among member nations. “In a volatile and turbulent world, the BRICS countries are maintaining their strategic resolve and working together for global peace, stability, and development,” he said.

In Brasília, officials have not concealed their disappointment regarding Xi’s absence. A source informed the Post that Lula had traveled to Beijing in May as a “show of goodwill” and had hoped “the Chinese president would reciprocate the gesture by attending the Rio summit.”

There was also speculation that Lula’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner after the BRICS summit may have influenced Beijing’s decision, as Xi might have been “perceived as a supporting actor” at the event.

Lula’s special adviser for international relations, Celso Amorim, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, where he clearly expressed Brazil’s desire to host Xi. “I told them, ‘BRICS without China is not BRICS,'” Amorim stated, recalling that then-President Hu Jintao attended the first BRICS summit in Brazil despite a major earthquake in China at the time. “He only stayed for one day, but he came.”

Amorim emphasized the particular importance of Xi’s attendance in the current global context, citing the “US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization” as a “violation of international rules.”

Premier Li is expected to arrive in Brazil next weekend for the summit, which is scheduled for July 6 and 7 in Rio.

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