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‘There is no shift in Turkey’s axis’

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The NATO summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius has ended. Do Turkey’s intra-NATO maneuvers signal a change or a fine-tuning of Ankara’s post-election foreign policy course? According to Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, there is no shift in axis or geopolitical reason for it. Stating that Turkey has two main agendas focused on economy and defense, Ataç emphasizes that the maneuvers, negotiations and steps in foreign policy should be viewed from this perspective.

The NATO summit in Vilnius is the second meeting held in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war. Having been on its agenda since the war, NATO’s enlargement policy is noteworthy as a bargaining chip that Ankara uses against its Western allies.

At the Spain Summit, Ankara put forward certain demands in exchange for Finland and Sweden’s membership, and although it gave its approval to Finland, it kept the Sweden card until this summit. In Vilnius, the new foreign affairs team re-set the bargaining table by bringing up the back-burner issue of “opening Turkey’s path to the European Union (EU)”.

While lifting sanctions on the defense industry, paving the way for the sale of F-16s, and Sweden’s consideration of Ankara’s sensitivities in the fight against terrorism were the most prominent demands, according to Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, “the economic pendulum is the most important parameter for Ankara in foreign policy.”

“Ankara is maximalist in negotiations”

Commenting on the NATO summit to Harici, Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, a lecturer at Mersin University, shares the view that the sometimes hardening or softening relations between Turkey and the West cannot be discussed in the brackets of “axis shift”. According to Ataç, “the typical approach of Turkish foreign policy is maximalist.”

Underlining that “middle powers act with a maximalist approach in their foreign policies and aim for the highest benefit,” Ataç says, “Lifting sanctions is a priority for Turkey.”

Ataç assesses that the rapprochement process with Russia after the 2016 coup attempt was also driven by pragmatic priorities and reminds that both countries have deep mutual mistrust.

Ataç says that although Turkey and Russia have conflicting interests in the Caucasus, Africa and Libya, these differences do not prevent them from developing deep relations in trade, tourism and energy.

“There are security-related tensions and mutual concerns,” Ataç says, adding that despite these, Ankara and Moscow will continue to develop relations based on pragmatic mutual benefit.

Why is there no axis shift?

How will the prioritization of NATO and the EU agenda and Ankara’s desire to open a new page with Western allies affect relations with Moscow? According to Russian statements, there will be no significant change. Indeed, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “Turkey has obligations to NATO regarding Sweden’s NATO membership,” adding that Moscow is willing to develop relations with Ankara despite differences of opinion.

“Historically, relations with Russia have always been based on tensions,” said Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, adding that “Turkey is developing the relations with Moscow that it needs. There are conflicts of interest in Turkey’s relations with Moscow.”

He summarizes the relations between Ankara, Brussels and Moscow as “Turkey has pragmatic relations with Russia, and there is no strategic rupture with NATO.”

Ataç justifies why he thinks there is no axis shift as follows: “There does not seem to be an axis shift in a technical sense. For there to be an axis shift, the importance of the Anatolian peninsula must strategically increase or decrease. On the axis stretching from North Africa to the Baltic, Anatolia is right in the middle. In NATO’s security policies, Anatolia should be one of the thickest links in the chain.”

“The US is taking Greece to another level”

According to Prof. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, Turkey’s desire for the lifting of Western overt and covert sanctions has two goals. The first is to meet the need for modernization in the defense industry. The second is to ensure the flow of Western resources into the blocked financial system.

On the other hand, “there is a sharp line in Turkey-US relations,” says Ataç, adding that the US has “shifted security from Ankara to Athens.

Emphasizing that modernization is a priority in Turkey’s defense, Ataç says Washington has “elevated the Greek army to another level.”

“The West will not give too much”

“Turkey is looking to get what it can from the West in terms of economy and defense industry,” says Ataç, noting that there is a bottleneck on financial and monetary issues.

To what extent can Ankara, which focuses on creating a positive agenda with NATO, the US, the EU and the West in general, achieve the desired results?

At this point, Ataç says, “It seems that they will not give too much. Turkey is looking to Arab capital for this. However, Arab capital also has close financial ties with the West,” he notes.

“The US wants to further wear Russia down”

Ukraine’s NATO membership agenda has been postponed indefinitely, but signs of escalating war have raised tensions. Moscow responded harshly to the G7 countries’ pledge of security guarantees for Ukraine and the hot topic of supplying Kiev with fighter jets. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Western plans to supply Kiev with US-designed fighter jets “an extremely dangerous development” and said Moscow sees the F-16 supply as a nuclear threat.

“For the United States, Russia is an adversary that can be overcome,” Ataç said, adding that Washington “wants to further wear Russia down.”

Ataç continued:

“Creating an adversary you can overcome… This is how Russia is defined in the strategy. And crisis management is important for managing tensions, so you need to keep that tension with Russia. The West has not technically integrated Moscow into Western institutions, neither during the Cold War nor after the Cold War.”

“The US is playing this game very hard,” Ataç says, emphasizing that the US “needs the Russian threat” to maintain its domination over Europe.

Diplomacy

Anthropic uncovers Claude use by Iranian, Houthi, and Russian units

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Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has disclosed attempted “abuses” of its Claude AI model ranging from conventional weapons to biological research by state-linked entities, foreign intelligence services, and cybercrime networks, publishing the findings in a detailed threat intelligence report.

A significant portion of the report comprised the development of guided missile software by the Houthis in northern Yemen and the conversion of the model into a military reconnaissance tool by Iran-linked actors seeking to target US naval assets in the Middle East.

Covering the period between December 2025 and August 2026, the report shared details of activities detected across seven primary areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, mass surveillance, conventional weapons development, biological risks, and unauthorised model distillation.

The company announced that it had terminated all accounts violating its rules and shared the resulting data with relevant international counterparts.

According to findings by Anthropic’s Threat Intelligence unit, a weapons cell based in northern Yemen, where the Houthis operate, substituted human software engineers with the Claude Code system across three distinct missile development programmes.

These efforts comprised a tactical rocket equipped with a terminal guidance system powered by a commercial smartphone processor, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a target range exceeding 2,000 kilometres, and missile designs carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.

The cell utilised the artificial intelligence to adapt open-source autopilot software to the smartphone processor, optimize flight control algorithms, and compile firmware.

Structuring their Claude accounts like a virtual engineering team, the Houthis assigned one account to write code, another to conduct research, and a third to review and audit the written code.

The report noted that the group conducted an actual test launch with a guided rocket in the Yemeni theatre.

Immediately following the failure of the live-fire test, the actors were documented returning to the Claude platform within hours to upload telemetry data and diagnose the cause of the malfunction.

The cell was observed successfully compiling offline simulation tools capable of operating independently even if access to Claude were severed.

Iran tracked US warships and personnel

Another military case detailed in the report involved attempts by Iran-linked cyber actors to target US naval forces in the Middle East.

These actors were found to have scraped open-source military data to draft operational targeting manuals directed against American warships and personnel.

Iran extracted name rosters of American military personnel from the captions of publicly accessible military photographs, monitored vessel and aircraft transponder data, authored code to scan commercial satellite imagery, and mapped vulnerabilities in maritime satellite communication terminals.

Other networks linked to the Tehran government were determined to have developed domestic and regional surveillance systems. A Qom-based unit produced a malicious web browser extension disguised as a prayer-time application to harvest credentials from social network users, funneling the data into a central case management system designated “Arman”.

Additionally, official Iranian institutions reportedly cloned authors’ voices using AI and operated multilingual disinformation networks to lay the groundwork for the supreme leadership succession.

Russia also used it for an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm

The report stated that an independent Russia-based software team developed fully autonomous kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle swarm software dubbed “DronDoc” or “Serafim”.

Affiliated with a university connected to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the team was said to have trained the artificial intelligence to distinguish between friendly and hostile elements using footage retrieved from the Ukrainian battlefield.

The developed system was designed with the capability to select targets, execute live human classification, and issue detonation commands without requiring human intervention, with simulations run directly against coordinates in the Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, the Russian-origin “Midnight Blizzard” group targeted the Ukrainian drone supply chain and staged attacks aimed at foreign officials and drone engineers by compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks.

A procurement manager stationed at a design bureau in Moscow was also discovered drafting plans via Claude to circumvent European sanctions. The individual was recorded assembling fraudulent tender and logistics correspondence to transport German-made magnetometers, space-grade photovoltaic sheets, and military aviation oxygen systems into Russia through intermediary firms based in China and Hong Kong.

Biological threats and pathogen engineering

The report disclosed five concrete cases regarding the deployment of artificial intelligence in hazardous biological research. Virologists attached to a military research institute were documented using AI for gain-of-function research aimed at enhancing the transmissibility and immune-evasion capabilities of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus.

Similarly, experimental designs were prepared to adapt the H5 avian influenza variant, which carries a 50% mortality rate in humans, to mammals and confer airborne transmission capabilities, while immune-evasion mechanisms of pathogens from the smallpox virus family were modelled.

The identities of paralytic neurotoxins subject to export control lists and haemorrhagic fever virus proteins featured on the World Health Organization’s priority epidemic list were deliberately masked and submitted to the AI for analysis.

In addition, a consultant working on behalf of the Malian State Intelligence Service designed a mass surveillance platform designated “Lakana 360” with the assistance of Claude.

The system was designed to monitor approximately 25 million SIM cards registered across three mobile operators in the country without requiring court orders, intercept audio recordings, and cross-reference records with biometric databases.

Separately, leading Chinese artificial intelligence firms including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Xiaomi were alleged to have initiated hundreds of millions of unauthorised sessions to extract the logical reasoning chains of Claude models. Moonshot and DeepSeek platforms reportedly routed their own users’ queries secretly through Claude, in the process exposing Chinese police surveillance feeds from hundreds of cameras covering military facilities in Chengdu, internal credentials of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and live database access codes connected to the Russian Defence Ministry to third parties.

Türkiye detail in the report

The report also detailed cases involving the abuse of the Claude AI model, incorporating findings concerning an Istanbul-based technology firm.

In case GTG-84005 of the intelligence report, an operation aimed at commercial election manipulation targeting voters in Malaysia was intercepted.

According to the findings, the operation operated under the guise of a startup providing cyber intelligence and counter-disinformation tools. Anthropic determined that Istanbul-based BBS Bilisim Teknolojileri was behind the infrastructure.

According to documents, the company marketed the architecture as a paid influence operation service styled as a “military-grade, AI-powered, real-time political operations ecosystem”.

Managing roughly 1,000 synthetic X accounts, the system processed demographic and electoral data across 222 parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia, calibrating targeting around sensitive social fault lines including ethnicity, religion, and the monarchy.

The network also circulated content from Russian and Chinese state media masquerading as independent Malaysian news via an artificial media outlet designated “Malaysia Pulse”, while manufacturing fraudulent intelligence dossiers targeting an opposition politician and civil society organisations.

Anthropic reported that the network received a request to generate 1 million artificial impressions in support of the Malaysian Prime Minister and sought to secure a contract with the country’s national communications regulatory authority.

While no evidence emerged that the undertaking succeeded, the associated user accounts were closed and operational digital indicators were shared.

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EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence

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The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.

Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.

The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.

In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.

“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:

“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”

Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.

Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.

In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.

Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.

Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.

One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.

The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.

“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:

“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”

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UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic

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The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.

Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.

The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.

Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.

Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.

To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.

Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.

Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.

In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.

Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.

Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.

This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.

Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.

Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.

Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”

Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.

In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”

Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.

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