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‘There is no shift in Turkey’s axis’

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The NATO summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius has ended. Do Turkey’s intra-NATO maneuvers signal a change or a fine-tuning of Ankara’s post-election foreign policy course? According to Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, there is no shift in axis or geopolitical reason for it. Stating that Turkey has two main agendas focused on economy and defense, Ataç emphasizes that the maneuvers, negotiations and steps in foreign policy should be viewed from this perspective.

The NATO summit in Vilnius is the second meeting held in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war. Having been on its agenda since the war, NATO’s enlargement policy is noteworthy as a bargaining chip that Ankara uses against its Western allies.

At the Spain Summit, Ankara put forward certain demands in exchange for Finland and Sweden’s membership, and although it gave its approval to Finland, it kept the Sweden card until this summit. In Vilnius, the new foreign affairs team re-set the bargaining table by bringing up the back-burner issue of “opening Turkey’s path to the European Union (EU)”.

While lifting sanctions on the defense industry, paving the way for the sale of F-16s, and Sweden’s consideration of Ankara’s sensitivities in the fight against terrorism were the most prominent demands, according to Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, “the economic pendulum is the most important parameter for Ankara in foreign policy.”

“Ankara is maximalist in negotiations”

Commenting on the NATO summit to Harici, Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, a lecturer at Mersin University, shares the view that the sometimes hardening or softening relations between Turkey and the West cannot be discussed in the brackets of “axis shift”. According to Ataç, “the typical approach of Turkish foreign policy is maximalist.”

Underlining that “middle powers act with a maximalist approach in their foreign policies and aim for the highest benefit,” Ataç says, “Lifting sanctions is a priority for Turkey.”

Ataç assesses that the rapprochement process with Russia after the 2016 coup attempt was also driven by pragmatic priorities and reminds that both countries have deep mutual mistrust.

Ataç says that although Turkey and Russia have conflicting interests in the Caucasus, Africa and Libya, these differences do not prevent them from developing deep relations in trade, tourism and energy.

“There are security-related tensions and mutual concerns,” Ataç says, adding that despite these, Ankara and Moscow will continue to develop relations based on pragmatic mutual benefit.

Why is there no axis shift?

How will the prioritization of NATO and the EU agenda and Ankara’s desire to open a new page with Western allies affect relations with Moscow? According to Russian statements, there will be no significant change. Indeed, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “Turkey has obligations to NATO regarding Sweden’s NATO membership,” adding that Moscow is willing to develop relations with Ankara despite differences of opinion.

“Historically, relations with Russia have always been based on tensions,” said Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, adding that “Turkey is developing the relations with Moscow that it needs. There are conflicts of interest in Turkey’s relations with Moscow.”

He summarizes the relations between Ankara, Brussels and Moscow as “Turkey has pragmatic relations with Russia, and there is no strategic rupture with NATO.”

Ataç justifies why he thinks there is no axis shift as follows: “There does not seem to be an axis shift in a technical sense. For there to be an axis shift, the importance of the Anatolian peninsula must strategically increase or decrease. On the axis stretching from North Africa to the Baltic, Anatolia is right in the middle. In NATO’s security policies, Anatolia should be one of the thickest links in the chain.”

“The US is taking Greece to another level”

According to Prof. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, Turkey’s desire for the lifting of Western overt and covert sanctions has two goals. The first is to meet the need for modernization in the defense industry. The second is to ensure the flow of Western resources into the blocked financial system.

On the other hand, “there is a sharp line in Turkey-US relations,” says Ataç, adding that the US has “shifted security from Ankara to Athens.

Emphasizing that modernization is a priority in Turkey’s defense, Ataç says Washington has “elevated the Greek army to another level.”

“The West will not give too much”

“Turkey is looking to get what it can from the West in terms of economy and defense industry,” says Ataç, noting that there is a bottleneck on financial and monetary issues.

To what extent can Ankara, which focuses on creating a positive agenda with NATO, the US, the EU and the West in general, achieve the desired results?

At this point, Ataç says, “It seems that they will not give too much. Turkey is looking to Arab capital for this. However, Arab capital also has close financial ties with the West,” he notes.

“The US wants to further wear Russia down”

Ukraine’s NATO membership agenda has been postponed indefinitely, but signs of escalating war have raised tensions. Moscow responded harshly to the G7 countries’ pledge of security guarantees for Ukraine and the hot topic of supplying Kiev with fighter jets. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Western plans to supply Kiev with US-designed fighter jets “an extremely dangerous development” and said Moscow sees the F-16 supply as a nuclear threat.

“For the United States, Russia is an adversary that can be overcome,” Ataç said, adding that Washington “wants to further wear Russia down.”

Ataç continued:

“Creating an adversary you can overcome… This is how Russia is defined in the strategy. And crisis management is important for managing tensions, so you need to keep that tension with Russia. The West has not technically integrated Moscow into Western institutions, neither during the Cold War nor after the Cold War.”

“The US is playing this game very hard,” Ataç says, emphasizing that the US “needs the Russian threat” to maintain its domination over Europe.

DIPLOMACY

US overtakes China as Germany’s biggest trading partner

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The United States overtook China as Germany’s most important trading partner in the first quarter of this year, according to Reuters calculations based on official data from the Federal Statistical Office.

According to the data, Germany’s trade with the United States, the sum of exports and imports, totalled 63 billion euros ($68 billion) in the January-March period, while the figure for China was just under 60 billion euros.

With a volume of 253 billion euros, China was Germany’s largest trading partner for the eighth time in a row, a few hundred million dollars ahead of the US.

“While German exports to the US continued to rise due to the strong economy there, both exports to and imports from China fell,” said Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer, explaining the change in the first quarter.

“China has moved up the value chain and is increasingly producing more complex goods itself, which it used to import from Germany. German companies are also increasingly producing locally instead of exporting goods from Germany to China,” Stamer said.

Germany has said it wants to reduce its trade with China, citing political differences and accusing Beijing of “unfair practices”. But Berlin has yet to take any major steps towards a policy of reducing dependency.

German imports of goods from China fell by almost 12 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, while German exports to China fell by just over 1 per cent, according to Juergen Matthes of the German economic institute IW.

“The fact that the US economy exceeded expectations, while the Chinese economy performed worse than many had hoped, probably contributed to this,” Matthes said.

Sales to the US currently account for around 10 percent of German goods exports. China’s share, on the other hand, has fallen below 6 per cent, Matthes said.

On the other hand, Dirk Jandura, head of the BGA trade association, said: “If the White House administration changes after the US elections in November and moves further in the direction of closing markets, this process could come to a standstill,” pointing out that the trend of Germany’s trade route shifting across the Atlantic could stop.

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BOTAŞ signs LNG deal with ExxonMobil

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Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said state-owned gas network operator BOTAŞ signed an LNG trade agreement with ExxonMobil on Wednesday in a bid to diversify its sources.

Bayraktar said in a statement on social media platform X: “The US is one of the important countries from which we already receive LNG. With this agreement, which is intended to be long-term, we will take another step towards diversifying our resources,” Bayraktar said, adding that the agreement was signed in Washington.

Noting that Turkey is among the few countries in the world with its gasification capacity, the minister said, “We will continue to contribute to the energy security of our country and our region.

Bayraktar gave no further details of the deal. The energy ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

In an interview with the Financial Times in late April, Bayraktar said Turkey wanted to “build a new supply portfolio” in energy procurement and said it was in talks with US fossil fuel giant Exxon Mobil for 2.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth about $1.1 billion.

Bayraktar said Turkey was also in talks with other US natural gas producers for LNG deals, stressing that Turkey wanted to “diversify” its natural gas supplies before some of its contracts with Russia expire in 2025 and with Iran in 2026.

In addition to Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, Turkey imports LNG from Algeria, Qatar, the US and Nigeria.

Russia is the country’s largest gas supplier. Last year, more than 40 per cent of its consumption was met with gas from that country.

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DIPLOMACY

The World Bank’s ‘climate plan’: More expensive meat and dairy, cheaper chicken and vegetables

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A new paper published by the World Bank suggests that the billions of dollars spent by rich countries on CO2-intensive products such as red meat and dairy products should be redirected towards more ‘climate-friendly’ options such as poultry, fruit and vegetables.

The bank argues that this is one of the most cost-effective ways to save the planet from ‘climate change’.

According to POLITICO, the ‘politically sensitive’ proposal is one of several the World Bank has put forward to reduce pollution from the agriculture and food sector, which it says is responsible for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions.

We have to stop destroying the planet while we feed ourselves,’ Julian Lampietti, the World Bank’s director of global practice for agriculture and food, told POLITICO.

The work comes at a strategic diplomatic moment, as signatories to the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius prepare to update their climate plans by the end of 2025.

While the world needs to accelerate emissions cuts to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, the World Bank wants officials to pay more attention to the agriculture and food sector, which it says has long been neglected and underfunded.

To be serious about achieving zero emissions by 2050 – a common goal for developed economies – countries need to invest $260 billion a year in these sectors, the report says. That is 18 times more than countries are currently investing.

The World Bank argues that governments could partially close this gap by redirecting subsidies for red meat and dairy towards lower-carbon alternatives. The Bank argues that this shift is one of the most cost-effective ways for rich countries to reduce demand for highly polluting foods, which are estimated to produce around 20 per cent of global agri-food emissions.

As a result, the climate impact will be reflected in the cost of food, he adds.

Full-cost pricing of animal-based foods to reflect their true planetary costs would make low-emissions food options more competitive,” the report says, suggesting that switching to plant-based diets could save twice as much planet-warming gases as other methods.

Meat and dairy production account for nearly 60 percent of agri-food emissions, according to the World Bank.

Lampietti warns against focusing too much on “what not to do” and suggests paying more attention to “what to do”. Food is a ‘deeply personal choice’, Lampietti said, adding that he fears the debate, which should be data-driven, could turn into a culture war.

The biggest concern is that people start using this as a political football,” he said.

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