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Transition from ‘non-state actors’ to interstate relations in Syria

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Those who oppose normalization with Syria: The United States, the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is active in Idlib and Aleppo outskirts and which Turkey considers a terrorist organization, some groups within the Free Syrian Army (FSA) …

U.S. Department spokesman Ned Price said: “We do not support countries upgrading their relations or expressing support to rehabilitate the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad.” But let us note that there have been no loud objections from senior U.S. officials, senators, and European capitals. Çavuşoğlu, who is set to visit the United States on January 18, said, “The United States did not say ‘Why do you hold meetings?’ but we understand that they oppose to normalization.”

From the side of Syrian organizations, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the HTS terror coalition, released a four-minute video titled ‘We will not compromise.’ “Talks between the Syrian regime and its Russian ally with the Turkish side represent a serious deviation from our goals,” he said.

The Syrian Democratic Council, which serves as the political framework of the separatist structure in Syria (YPG/PYD/SDF), also called on the “opposition” to the Ankara-Damascus alliance to unite: “We call on the forces of revolution and opposition to oppose and destroy the alliance between Turkey and Damascus, to unite against tyranny and those who sell the blood of Syrians for their interests.”

Abdullah Gedo of the Syrian Kurdish National Council (ENKS), withing the circle of the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), said the Syrian opposition would be uncomfortable with taking Ankara-Damascus rapprochement to the political level.

Protests were held in many FSA and HTS-controlled settlements in the north of Syria under oath of allegiance to the so-called ‘Syrian revolution.’

The remaining “Syrian opposition”

Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu met with the President of the Syrian National Coalition Al-Meslet, the President of the Syrian Negotiation Commission Bader Jamous and the Prime Minister of the Syrian Interim Government Abdurrahman Mustafa. “We reiterated our support for the Syrian opposition and the Syrian people in line with the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254,” he said.

It is possible to infer some sort of uneasiness from Salem Al-Meslet’s statement, “Turkey is a strong ally of the Syrian revolution and opposition forces. I expect Turkey will remain so in all international decisions on the Syrian issue, especially the Geneva Resolutions 2118 and 2254.”

Resolution 2254 calls for the formation of a “unity government” to be followed by elections. Damascus, however, is not willing to give administration space to opposition groups that are no longer able to seize the state with their armed forces.

Although adjectives such as ‘Prime Minister of the Interim Government’ are used, this political fiction has no practical equivalent in Syria. Although it seems to be one of Ankara’s main priorities for these groups to find a place in a possible Syrian peace, apparently this is not a realistic approach and that these structures are a ‘trump card’ to be discarded at a certain stage of the negotiations.

It became clear in last autumn’s SNA-HTS clashes that efforts to bring countless undisciplined groups together and turn the FSA into the ‘Syrian National Army’ (SNA) were also in vain. Already after 2016, the role of the FSA was shaped in line with Ankara’s policy change, from overthrowing Assad to quickly fighting the PKK’s Syrian extension.

Why should Damascus share its authority with a structure that will be overthrown as soon as the TAF withdraws its support? It is clearly possible to interpret Syria’s demand for “TAF’s withdrawal from Syria” as “TAF is supporting the parallel armed force that wants to be a partner in my authority. I don’t want to share my sovereignty.”

What is Syria’s FSA plan?

A source from Damascus, who is in contact with the Syrian security bureaucracy, said that Syria raised the following demands on the FSA during the talks: “We have a clear path in the talks, we have some conditions. There are certain groups. These are no different from ISIS. We want Turkey to declare them a terrorist organization. And that won’t be easy.”

The source continued: “Turkey is not willing to make concessions from the FSA in the negotiations. Turkey is officially calling for joint action against the YPG. Damascus has no objection to this. However, Turkey also needs to take steps on certain issues.”

A report on the Middle East Eye website, based on Turkish officials, claimed that Turkey did not accept the request from Damascus to “declare some groups a terrorist organization.”

A source from Syria, who informed Harici, said that Damascus has plans for the future of the various armed groups that have rebelled against FSA and the administration, and quoted the following notes:

“One: According to Damascus, a large section of the FSA can benefit from the amnesty laws.

Two: Damascus does not expect the extradition to Syria of criminals who run criminal networks and are involved in illegal activities.

Three: FSA militants can join the 5th Corps, which was established with Russia’s guarantee of security in reconciliation negotiations with the opposition.”

Expectations from the Arab world

Stating that “the atmosphere of optimism prevails in Damascus” regarding the negotiation process, the source added that Syria is “balancing” relations with Iran and “counting days” to open up to the Arab world.

Noting that the reports of “cleaning the army” published in the Turkish press regarding the recent appointments in the Syrian army do not reflect the truth, the source said that these appointments are a routine process that is carried out every six months.

Damascus continues its ‘normalization’ tours not only with Turkey but also with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed met with Syrian Leader Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Traffic is also heavy on the Syria-Saudi Arabia lane. It can be said that he wants to feel the support of the Arab world behind Damascus in normalization with Turkey.

The United States is doing everything to slow down the flow of the river…

In addition to the Caesar Act sanctions, Washington’s main goal, which aggravated the sanctions on Syria with the Captagon Act, is to Iraqize the Syrian state structure. It is possible to summarize what the U.S. understands by the ‘political solution in Syria’ as an autonomy in which the PYD can find a legal sphere of existence or as options for the federation where local governments are strong. It seems unlikely that Ankara will approve this plan under any circumstances.

The dismantling of Iran’s land logistics system from Iraqi territory to the east of the Euphrates and from there to Lebanon is also among the priorities of the United States and Israel. In other words, we can say that for a possible normalization, Iran will be tried to be removed from Syria and Washington will continue to tighten the sanctions until it includes autonomy.

Now, Astana partner Iran has not been involved in Ankara-Damascus meeting yet. For Tehran, which frequently give advises through official dialogues, the east of the Euphrates and the passageways are very important because they are the window to Lebanon. It is also unrealistic for Damascus to approve the proposals by pushing its foul-weather friend Iran completely out of the game. However, Syria does not want to be seen as fully engaged in Iranian politics as a state.

For now, Ankara’s operation demand has been replaced by dialogue and diplomatic traffic, which all sides are watching closely. As we get closer to the final agreement and the parameters of the possible rapprochement become clear, what lies beneath the objections and reactions will come to the surface. In this context, the year 2023 is decisive for Turkey-Syria relations. With the meeting of foreign ministers in January, the state-to-state dialogue and diplomacy line will be strengthened.

To summarize, 2023 is a candidate year for the transition from non-state actors to interstate relations. The possible resistance of the groups that do not want to lose their wartime ‘state-like’ status strengthens the possibility of opening a final bloody page in the Syrian book…

Middle East

Israel alarmed by US decision to withdraw from Syria

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Washington’s notification to Tel Aviv regarding its decision to withdraw from Syria has caused concern in Israel. The Tel Aviv administration is worried about Türkiye gaining strategic power in the region.

The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that the Washington administration informed Tel Aviv that it would begin a phased withdrawal of troops from Syria within two months. It also stated that Israel is attempting to prevent the US from withdrawing its military assets from Syria. The Tel Aviv administration is reportedly trying to prevent this move due to “fears that Türkiye will take over more strategic assets in the new Syria.”

The report noted that US President Donald Trump had previously announced his intention to withdraw troops from Syria, and the Pentagon, which has been working on withdrawal plans for a long time and is preparing to implement them, has informed the Israelis about this.

Israeli officials have “expressed serious concerns,” but this has reportedly had no impact on the US’s decision to withdraw.

Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen television reported last week that the US military had begun evacuating some military bases in northeastern Syria, moving personnel and equipment to Iraq.

According to a senior Israeli official who spoke to Yedioth Ahronoth, the US withdrawal of troops from northern Syria has the potential to increase tensions between Türkiye and Israel and “increase Türkiye’s appetite to control more strategic military points in Syria.”

The report stated that the US withdrawal process from Syria and President Trump’s remarks about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House last week have put Israeli security institutions on alert, and Israeli officials did not find Trump’s mediation offer “reassuring.”

It was stated that Israel’s attacks in recent weeks on the T4 military base in the Tedmur (Palmyra) district of Homs province, where Türkiye was said to be stationed, were carried out to delay Türkiye’s deployment before the US withdrawal, and it was seen as a “race against time” before the US began to withdraw troops.

It is reported that Israel is afraid of the possibility that Türkiye will limit Israel’s freedom of movement in Syria and pose a potential threat to the Syrian territories it occupies in the future.

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Syria may recognize Israel by 2026, claims former UK diplomat

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According to former British diplomat Craig Murray, the Syrian administration led by HTŞ has assured the United Kingdom that they will recognize Israel by the end of 2026.

Craig Murray, the former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan and a human rights advocate, raised a striking allegation on his personal blog. In a post based on British diplomatic sources, Murray claimed that Abu Muhammad al-Julani (Ahmed Shara), the “president” who effectively controls Syria, has assured the United Kingdom that he will officially recognize Israel by the end of 2026 and that ambassadors will be appointed reciprocally.

According to the allegation, this move will be implemented in exchange for Western financial support and the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

Murray stated that the termination of Israel’s occupation of Syrian territories was not discussed as part of the agreement, and that the United Kingdom views this issue as a “bilateral matter.” It was also stated that Shara did not prioritize this demand.

According to Murray, the European Union’s foreign affairs units believe that Shara’s declared council of ministers has fulfilled its commitment to the EU to establish an “inclusive government” at the Brussels Conference on March 17. This commitment included the inclusion of Alawite and Christian communities, as well as women, in the administration.

Murray continued: “However, when looking at the 24-member cabinet announced on March 27, it was noted that 21 ministers, including those in critical ministries such as foreign affairs and finance, were Sunni men, with only one female minister who is both Christian and a Canadian citizen. The minority representatives in the cabinet (one Christian, one Alawite, and one Druze) were limited to insignificant ministries. The Shiite community was not given any representation.”

The former British diplomat described the EU’s acceptance of this picture as an “inclusive government” as a “farce.”

Murray stated, “Shara’s pro-Israel stance seems to have taken precedence over all other criteria.”

Craig Murray, a former member of the British Foreign Office, also claimed, again based on the same source, that Shara receives direct support from MI6 and British special forces. According to Murray, the primary mission of these units is to prevent possible rebellions among the militants affiliated with Shara.

Murray said that the Chechen, Uzbek, and Uighur fighters among these groups are currently satisfied with the “spoils of victory” they have obtained, but may not welcome a move such as the recognition of Israel in the future.

Murray also shared his own prediction at this point, saying that Shara may eliminate the radical elements within himself in the future: “I think that this Western-backed regime will eventually liquidate the most fanatical elements within itself. Otherwise, it seems impossible for him to maintain this balance as both an Islamic fundamentalist and a pro-US/Israel leader.”

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Ceasefire talks in Gaza intensify before Trump visit

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Ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza have accelerated ahead of US President Donald Trump’s planned Middle East visit in mid-May. It was claimed that Hamas agreed to release more Israeli hostages for a ceasefire, and the US promised to pressure Israel to start permanent ceasefire negotiations. In addition, the disarmament of Hamas under Egyptian supervision is on the agenda.

After the first phase of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, was completed, the Israeli administration did not agree to move on to the second phase, in which it had to end its occupation of Gaza. It requested that the first phase of the ceasefire be extended and, in return, Hamas release 11 Israeli hostages. Hamas, which wants to move on to the second phase of the ceasefire, responded to Israel’s new offer by saying that it could release 5 hostages. Israel rejected the proposal and restarted the Gaza attacks on March 18. Since then, attacks and ground occupation have continued, while negotiations for a ceasefire have also been conducted.

According to a report by Saudi Arabia-based El-Arabiya, Israel stated in its latest offer that it was ready to reduce the number of hostages to be released. It was reported that Hamas also agreed to release more hostages. However, no clear number was given.

If an agreement is reached under the proposed draft, the hostages will be released in two stages, and humanitarian aid will be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip.

In addition, it was stated that the US promised Hamas that it would force Israel into negotiations to end the war; it was noted that discussions on whether Hamas leaders could stay in Gaza were postponed to a later date.

The Saudi source also reported that, as part of a possible agreement, Hamas would provide medical reports on the health conditions of the hostages.

According to a report by Haaretz newspaper, based on Palestinian sources, the Cairo and Doha administrations are working with the US on a new phase of the ceasefire agreement reached in January. This phase will also include negotiations to end the 18-month war.

According to the news, Egypt submitted a permanent ceasefire proposal that includes the disarmament of Hamas and that this be done under Cairo’s supervision.

The report also stated that Hamas does not expect major results from the current negotiations, but believes there is an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement before US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar in mid-May.

Meanwhile, according to Ynet, which conveyed its source without explanation, the US assured Hamas that if it agreed to release more than 8 hostages, Israel would participate in negotiations to end the war.

A Hamas official told AFP on Friday that the Cairo delegation, headed by the group’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, hoped to achieve “real progress that would end the war, stop the attacks, and ensure the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces from Gaza.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on Sunday evening that Netanyahu emphasized in his meeting with the family of hostage Eitan Mor that efforts to rescue the hostages held by Hamas were continuing “even at this very moment.”

The Times of Israel published on Friday, citing two officials close to the talks, that Netanyahu softened his demands after his meeting with Trump in Washington last week.

The officials who spoke to the newspaper said on Thursday that Israel had conveyed its official response to the latest Egyptian-mediated offer. According to this response, Israel is demanding the release of hostages in the first two weeks of the 45-day ceasefire and rejects Hamas’s previously proposed time-phased release plan.

In addition, the Israeli side wants to reduce the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each hostage. These prisoners include those sentenced to life imprisonment. The latest offer also requests the delivery of the bodies of 16 Israelis held in Gaza. In return, the bodies of Gazans held by Israel will be handed over.

On the other hand, it is claimed that Netanyahu has the support of his far-right coalition partners, who threatened to overthrow his government if he ended the war. However, opinion polls also show that the majority of the public supports ending the war in exchange for the release of the hostages. It is thought that only 24 of the 59 hostages held by Hamas are still alive.

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