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MIDDLE EAST

Transition from ‘non-state actors’ to interstate relations in Syria

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Those who oppose normalization with Syria: The United States, the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is active in Idlib and Aleppo outskirts and which Turkey considers a terrorist organization, some groups within the Free Syrian Army (FSA) …

U.S. Department spokesman Ned Price said: “We do not support countries upgrading their relations or expressing support to rehabilitate the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad.” But let us note that there have been no loud objections from senior U.S. officials, senators, and European capitals. Çavuşoğlu, who is set to visit the United States on January 18, said, “The United States did not say ‘Why do you hold meetings?’ but we understand that they oppose to normalization.”

From the side of Syrian organizations, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the HTS terror coalition, released a four-minute video titled ‘We will not compromise.’ “Talks between the Syrian regime and its Russian ally with the Turkish side represent a serious deviation from our goals,” he said.

The Syrian Democratic Council, which serves as the political framework of the separatist structure in Syria (YPG/PYD/SDF), also called on the “opposition” to the Ankara-Damascus alliance to unite: “We call on the forces of revolution and opposition to oppose and destroy the alliance between Turkey and Damascus, to unite against tyranny and those who sell the blood of Syrians for their interests.”

Abdullah Gedo of the Syrian Kurdish National Council (ENKS), withing the circle of the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), said the Syrian opposition would be uncomfortable with taking Ankara-Damascus rapprochement to the political level.

Protests were held in many FSA and HTS-controlled settlements in the north of Syria under oath of allegiance to the so-called ‘Syrian revolution.’

The remaining “Syrian opposition”

Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu met with the President of the Syrian National Coalition Al-Meslet, the President of the Syrian Negotiation Commission Bader Jamous and the Prime Minister of the Syrian Interim Government Abdurrahman Mustafa. “We reiterated our support for the Syrian opposition and the Syrian people in line with the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254,” he said.

It is possible to infer some sort of uneasiness from Salem Al-Meslet’s statement, “Turkey is a strong ally of the Syrian revolution and opposition forces. I expect Turkey will remain so in all international decisions on the Syrian issue, especially the Geneva Resolutions 2118 and 2254.”

Resolution 2254 calls for the formation of a “unity government” to be followed by elections. Damascus, however, is not willing to give administration space to opposition groups that are no longer able to seize the state with their armed forces.

Although adjectives such as ‘Prime Minister of the Interim Government’ are used, this political fiction has no practical equivalent in Syria. Although it seems to be one of Ankara’s main priorities for these groups to find a place in a possible Syrian peace, apparently this is not a realistic approach and that these structures are a ‘trump card’ to be discarded at a certain stage of the negotiations.

It became clear in last autumn’s SNA-HTS clashes that efforts to bring countless undisciplined groups together and turn the FSA into the ‘Syrian National Army’ (SNA) were also in vain. Already after 2016, the role of the FSA was shaped in line with Ankara’s policy change, from overthrowing Assad to quickly fighting the PKK’s Syrian extension.

Why should Damascus share its authority with a structure that will be overthrown as soon as the TAF withdraws its support? It is clearly possible to interpret Syria’s demand for “TAF’s withdrawal from Syria” as “TAF is supporting the parallel armed force that wants to be a partner in my authority. I don’t want to share my sovereignty.”

What is Syria’s FSA plan?

A source from Damascus, who is in contact with the Syrian security bureaucracy, said that Syria raised the following demands on the FSA during the talks: “We have a clear path in the talks, we have some conditions. There are certain groups. These are no different from ISIS. We want Turkey to declare them a terrorist organization. And that won’t be easy.”

The source continued: “Turkey is not willing to make concessions from the FSA in the negotiations. Turkey is officially calling for joint action against the YPG. Damascus has no objection to this. However, Turkey also needs to take steps on certain issues.”

A report on the Middle East Eye website, based on Turkish officials, claimed that Turkey did not accept the request from Damascus to “declare some groups a terrorist organization.”

A source from Syria, who informed Harici, said that Damascus has plans for the future of the various armed groups that have rebelled against FSA and the administration, and quoted the following notes:

“One: According to Damascus, a large section of the FSA can benefit from the amnesty laws.

Two: Damascus does not expect the extradition to Syria of criminals who run criminal networks and are involved in illegal activities.

Three: FSA militants can join the 5th Corps, which was established with Russia’s guarantee of security in reconciliation negotiations with the opposition.”

Expectations from the Arab world

Stating that “the atmosphere of optimism prevails in Damascus” regarding the negotiation process, the source added that Syria is “balancing” relations with Iran and “counting days” to open up to the Arab world.

Noting that the reports of “cleaning the army” published in the Turkish press regarding the recent appointments in the Syrian army do not reflect the truth, the source said that these appointments are a routine process that is carried out every six months.

Damascus continues its ‘normalization’ tours not only with Turkey but also with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed met with Syrian Leader Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Traffic is also heavy on the Syria-Saudi Arabia lane. It can be said that he wants to feel the support of the Arab world behind Damascus in normalization with Turkey.

The United States is doing everything to slow down the flow of the river…

In addition to the Caesar Act sanctions, Washington’s main goal, which aggravated the sanctions on Syria with the Captagon Act, is to Iraqize the Syrian state structure. It is possible to summarize what the U.S. understands by the ‘political solution in Syria’ as an autonomy in which the PYD can find a legal sphere of existence or as options for the federation where local governments are strong. It seems unlikely that Ankara will approve this plan under any circumstances.

The dismantling of Iran’s land logistics system from Iraqi territory to the east of the Euphrates and from there to Lebanon is also among the priorities of the United States and Israel. In other words, we can say that for a possible normalization, Iran will be tried to be removed from Syria and Washington will continue to tighten the sanctions until it includes autonomy.

Now, Astana partner Iran has not been involved in Ankara-Damascus meeting yet. For Tehran, which frequently give advises through official dialogues, the east of the Euphrates and the passageways are very important because they are the window to Lebanon. It is also unrealistic for Damascus to approve the proposals by pushing its foul-weather friend Iran completely out of the game. However, Syria does not want to be seen as fully engaged in Iranian politics as a state.

For now, Ankara’s operation demand has been replaced by dialogue and diplomatic traffic, which all sides are watching closely. As we get closer to the final agreement and the parameters of the possible rapprochement become clear, what lies beneath the objections and reactions will come to the surface. In this context, the year 2023 is decisive for Turkey-Syria relations. With the meeting of foreign ministers in January, the state-to-state dialogue and diplomacy line will be strengthened.

To summarize, 2023 is a candidate year for the transition from non-state actors to interstate relations. The possible resistance of the groups that do not want to lose their wartime ‘state-like’ status strengthens the possibility of opening a final bloody page in the Syrian book…

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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MIDDLE EAST

U.S. officials to meet with HTS and Jolani in Damascus

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In a significant diplomatic development, U.S. President Joe Biden has authorized senior American diplomats to engage directly with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This marks the first formal meeting between U.S. officials and HTS leadership since the group’s overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria earlier this month. Despite HTS’s pivotal role in the regime’s fall, the U.S. continues to classify it as a terrorist organization.

The delegation is led by Barbara Leaf, the State Department’s senior Middle East official. She is joined by Roger Carstens, the U.S. Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, and Daniel Rubenstein, a veteran diplomat recalled from retirement to spearhead U.S. diplomatic efforts in Syria post-Assad. Rubenstein, previously stationed at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, is now tasked with navigating Syria’s complex political landscape following the collapse of the Assad regime.

The meeting, taking place on December 20, represents the first direct, face-to-face dialogue between the U.S., and HTS leaders. This engagement comes as HTS appeals to Western nations to lift longstanding sanctions against Syria. U.S. officials have indicated that lifting the ‘terrorist’ designation and easing sanctions could be possible if HTS demonstrates a commitment to inclusive governance and sustained stability.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the importance of HTS addressing critical security concerns, including chemical weapons and the lingering presence of groups like Daesh (ISIS). Speaking in New York, Blinken stated, “If you don’t want this isolation, then there are things you need to do to move the country forward in an inclusive way.”

The U.S. visit follows similar diplomatic engagements in Damascus this week by officials from France, Germany, and Britain, highlighting a coordinated Western effort to shape Syria’s post-Assad future. Speaking to Bloomberg, Blinken reiterated the necessity of direct dialogue in fostering stability.

Washington’s discussions with HTS also aim to expedite efforts to locate Austin Tice, an American journalist kidnapped in Damascus in 2012. Despite HTS’s designation as a terrorist entity, the U.S. maintains that communication is permissible under its legal framework, provided no material support is extended.

Simultaneously, the Pentagon announced an increase in U.S. troop deployments to northeast Syria, doubling the number from 900 to approximately 2,000. Major General Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesperson, clarified that these troops were already present before Assad’s fall, underscoring the ongoing mission to counter Daesh.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official now at the Atlantic Council, warned of potential consequences if the U.S. fails to assert influence in Syria. “If Washington and its allies do not actively work to ensure that the leaders and groups in Syria align with U.S. interests, the vacuum in Syria will almost certainly be filled by a country or group hostile to our interests and those of our allies,” Panikoff told the Financial Times.

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Migration and identity crisis

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Whether we like it or not, immigration is the reality of our world today. This fact, in addition to the fact that it can become an opportunity with proper individual and organizational management, also has its own challenges. Among other things, one of the challenges that arise for immigrant communities and the immigrant generation is the identity crisis. The crisis of identity is a broad and multidimensional debate, but with a simpler view, this crisis among the second and third generation of immigrants is caused by a duality – on the one hand, they inevitably have to reject the relatively strict traditional-religious behavior of their parents, and on the other hand, they cannot fully absorb the secular and civil values ​​of the host society.

At the same time, these second and third generation immigrants need a series of rituals, education and ceremonies in which they can feel themselves and find a sense of belonging. Because they have rejected the worn-out advice of their parents, they lose their respect, attention and empathy.

But on the other hand, they are not respected outside when they face the more important and larger part, that is, the host society. That is, because they cannot be successfully absorbed into the host society, they do not attract attention and respect from there and are isolated. While as human beings they need attention and respect from others – to be someone for themselves and to be known and honored with the title they like. If we want to explain the identity problem in simple language, this is it. Of course, this is not a general case. There are so many young people who are successfully recruited and busy with their daily work and are in positive interaction with institutions and human groups in their field of work every day. This is a huge success in terms of integration. But naturally, there are those whose absorption process in the host society is disturbed due to various reasons.

They are thirsty for attention and seeking respect because of the aforementioned emptiness. In this case, they are waiting hard for someone, an institution or a group to be found under its order to become meaningful signifiers even at the cost of obeying or blindly following. Because following also reminds at least that they are human and some people need to follow them.

Immigrants want to be respected by the host countries as it strengthens the sense of belonging to the community

Due to this need, many addresses with religious, ethnic and cultural names have been created among immigrants and usually they all offer some kind of identity product. Because they know that the immigrant community needs things to remind them that they belong to a certain nation, race, or religion in times of identity crisis. They have a special past and history, and based on their ancestral religion, they will be treated in a special way in heaven.

Also, in this world, angels always have a good opinion of them. When they feel that they have been rejected from the reality of society due to the difficulties of immigration, it is natural for them to take refuge in imaginary sources and ask for respect and attention from there.

This seemingly makes their existence meaningful and strengthens their sense of belonging to the same group, but on the other hand, it further separates them from the main body of the host society. This separation is not only deep, but sometimes becomes a factor resistant to assimilation and integration.

Efforts should be made so that the situation does not reach a point where that vacuum is formed or reaches a critical level. The way to avoid this gap is absorption and integration. Being absorbed is not easy for immigrants; Therefore, a practical solution should be considered for it. For this, it is good to ask: What helps us to become like the society or people of our host country or second home? What do they have? What do we have in common?

In response, it should be said: Our first and most important contribution is in “citizenship”. That we are citizens of a certain country and being a citizen requires commitment and sacrifice. If we reach this civic understanding that citizenship is a principle prior to other elements of identity such as religion, religion, language and ethnicity, I think we have traveled an important part of the way. It is the only umbrella that can cover everyone equally, so that no one feels left out.

The good thing about this umbrella is that in order to join it, no immigrant needs to become a Christian first to become a citizen of a certain country, or to be white first to qualify for citizenship. It is enough that they respect the rights and freedoms of the members of the society.

This is the result of the maturity of human history, which is steered by Western civilization, and now Western countries also consider themselves obliged to comply with it.

Of course, this has not always been the case in the West. For example, more than half a century ago in Germany, Jews were legally ineligible for German citizenship as long as they insisted on their Jewishness. The granting of citizenship, which is actually the granting of the right to live again, regardless of religion, ethnicity and region, based only on being “human”, is an unprecedented achievement in human history, which is implemented in first world countries.

The identity loss and wandering shows itself in various forms.

The phenomenon of migration and the lack of compatibility of new arrivals with the new environment is not a new thing. For example, after the industrial revolution in the 19th century, these same countries faced the problem of identity crisis. Due to the impact of the industrial revolution, people suddenly moved from the surrounding areas to the cities, and those who had just arrived in the city had exactly the same situation as today’s immigrants, who are thrown from the third world countries to the center of the largest cities of the first world countries, and it is impossible not to get lost.

This identity loss and wandering shows itself in various forms. The problem of internal migration in Western countries in the 18th and 19th centuries, caused by the mass migration of rural people to the cities, was solved by gradual integration. Today, the challenge of immigration to these countries can only be managed with sustainable and intelligent integration.

But what is important is the implementation of this integration in the healthiest way and with the least cost for the host society and the immigrants. Integration is inevitable, it just needs to be managed well. If integration does not take place, urban life with its own nature and the whole issue of government-nationality and national identity of these countries will face danger and no country likes this.

One can think about those who just arrived in the city two centuries ago, how it was hard for them to lose their local dialects and customs and religious and regional traditions, but now their current generations who were born in the city, grew up and educated in the city, are basically urban and they do not have the accent of their great-grandfathers nor their customs. They are either from London or from Manchester or from Birmingham and all of them are English and they have nothing to do with their villages.

Current immigrants also have to go through such a process. That is, they should be absorbed in the urban life and civic values ​​and nationality of the host countries. As Fukuyama, a contemporary political scientist, says “although with the victory of the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the Salafist movement in Saudi Arabia in the same years, the assumption that Muslim immigrants in Western countries should maintain their independent religious institutions was strengthened.”

Several decades of bad experiences of some migrants in West have led to the creation of far-right parties and their stance against immigrant

Even today, this strategy is being implemented by the Islamic Republic in all parts of the world under various titles under the guise of religion and under the name of religious freedom. But the result of creating an island and intervening and demanding the isolation of same-religious groups from the rest of the host society is creating a rift and the illusion of a dual identity, which, if it becomes acute, can even create security problems for the host society.

From the point of view of isolated groups and individuals, citizenship does not have a special meaning, nor does it bring duties and obligations. According to them, religion or ethnicity is the factor of unification, not citizenship. The occurrence of religiously motivated terrorist attacks in Western countries, as well as the joining of second and third generation Muslim immigrants from Western countries to extremist groups in the Middle East, can be understood under this logic.

Several decades of bad experiences of Muslims in Western countries have led to the creation of far-right parties and their stance against immigrants and Muslims in those countries. The emergence of populist nationalism is due to the feeling of danger that immigrants have taken their identity from them and they don’t want to be confused with immigrants.

That is, in the host countries, which are mostly western, there is also a group that does not like immigrants, especially Muslim immigrants, to be integrated into them. According to them, Muslim immigrants should not pollute their culture and identity – so to speak.

But again, due to the blessing of the secular age and the secular government, their words are not taken into account, and they are willing to give citizenship to Muslims and follow the policy of multiculturalism, with all the possible dangers and sometimes bad memories of some of them – that one day maybe the important principle of “citizenship” will be institutionalized in them.

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