August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.

Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.

Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.

According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.

The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.

This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.

Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals

According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.

The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.

Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.

Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.

Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe

The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.

Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.

Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.

The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.

Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.

In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.

In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.

In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.

Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.

Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.

However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.

In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”

Tenreyro added:

“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.

Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.

US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.

This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.

Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.

Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.

The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.

However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.

The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.

The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.

Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.

Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.

The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.

According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.

These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.

The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin recommends paying closer attention to new transport corridors running from Persian Gulf countries to Europe.

According to a recent analysis by one of Germany’s most influential foreign policy think tanks, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the wars in the Middle East, along with the growing risks surrounding transit through the entrance to the Red Sea at Bab el-Mandeb, are currently prompting Gulf states to strongly back alternative route plans to Europe.

On the one hand, these plans include pipelines designed primarily to bypass the Strait of Hormuz or extend from the Middle East to Mediterranean ports in Syria and Türkiye.

On the other hand, the initiatives involve building transport corridors designed to facilitate the shipment of goods between the Arabian Peninsula and Europe via alternative routes such as Egypt, Syria, or Türkiye.

The author of the analysis, former SWP director and prominent Middle East expert Volker Perthes, argues that these projects should be supported because they would link the Middle East to Europe through infrastructure.

War-induced disruptions

Disruptions caused by war along the maritime routes off the Arabian Peninsula form the backdrop to the latest analysis on major geo-economic projects in the Near and Middle East, published on Monday by the Berlin-based SWP, which is funded by the Federal Chancellery.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which the vast majority of Arab states’ oil and natural gas exports reached world markets before the Iranian war began, is currently impassable in practice because of blockades imposed by both Iran and the US.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, through which much of the trade between Europe and Asia flows, is also currently at risk due to the war between Ansar Allah, Saudi Arabia, and its proxies in Yemen.

There is currently no sign that these disruptions will end. Furthermore, both straits will remain structurally highly vulnerable in the future, as ships passing through them can very easily be attacked by neighbouring states.

Pipeline plans to bypass Hormuz

As noted in the SWP’s latest analysis, a series of pipeline projects aimed at offering alternatives for oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz are currently under discussion or even under construction.

Iraq, for instance, is working to repair and recommission an old pipeline built in the early 1950s but destroyed during the 2003 invasion, which runs from the Kirkuk oilfields to the Syrian port city of Baniyas.

In addition, a pipeline is planned to run northwards from the oilfields near Basra in southern Iraq.

This line is also intended to extend as far as Baniyas, or alternatively to Ceyhan.

Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the East-West Pipeline from its production regions in the east to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.

The United Arab Emirates is building a second oil pipeline in Fujairah, situated outside the Persian Gulf and thus beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the SWP points out that pipelines and alternative loading ports remain vulnerable to attacks.

For that reason, these lines cannot replace the Strait of Hormuz; they can only generate additional options, or in other words, provide “greater redundancy”.

Special emphasis on IMEC by SWP

The SWP places particular emphasis on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a major project launched in 2023 by India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the EU, three European countries (Germany, France, and Italy), and the US.

The venture envisages the development of a comprehensive transport corridor spanning sea lanes, roads, railways, and pipelines of all kinds, stretching from India across the Arabian Peninsula to the Mediterranean coast of the Middle East, and from there to Europe.

The original plan was to extend the corridor to the port of Haifa. The US viewed this not only as an opportunity to establish an alternative to China’s New Silk Road, but also as a means of providing an “infrastructural foundation” for the Abraham Accords, both those already in effect and those pursued by Washington.

Since the outbreak of the Gaza War, however, including Haifa in the project appears unlikely.

Discussions are currently focused instead on building or expanding transport routes running from Saudi Arabia through Jordan to the Syrian coast, or across the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt’s Mediterranean ports.

The SWP concludes that any “network of infrastructure connections” is “more realistic” than a single mega transport corridor.

Significance of Syria and Türkiye for German think tank

As the SWP points out, other major geo-economic projects traverse Türkiye.

For instance, a transport corridor running north from the Al-Faw container port in southern Iraq and intended to reach Europe through Türkiye has been in the planning stages since 2024.

Known as the Iraq Development Road (IDR), the venture is slated to include railway, motorway, energy, and data connections. It is backed not only by Iraq and Türkiye, but also by the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which seek to utilize the corridor to diversify their trade with Europe.

The Iraqi regions through which the corridor will pass remain a subject of dispute. Furthermore, the implementation of the project is thought to depend on the “resolution process” in Türkiye.

Alternative or complementary plans envision another corridor running from the Arabian Peninsula through Jordan and Syria to Europe.

This likewise encompasses a comprehensive transport corridor featuring railway, highway, and data connections.

This carries strategic implications: Syria under President Bashar al-Assad, which previously functioned as an east-west transport corridor stretching from Iran to Lebanon, would now be repurposed as a north-south corridor.

Excluding Iran from ‘corridors’ is core objective

According to the SWP, the Arab states’ interest in transport corridors will remain high even after the hoped-for conclusion of the war with Iran.

The Gulf countries’ “mistrust” towards Tehran will persist; moreover, they will not want to “rely” on the US over the long term to provide “naval escorts for oil or natural gas exports”.

Iran is also not expected to connect to the railway, highway, and data networks in question. Infrastructurally, Tehran is already leaning further towards Central Asia, Russia, and China.

Nevertheless, it is clear that all the transport corridors mentioned lead to Europe and are primarily “aimed” at establishing closer links with the European continent, which represents a major advantage for European countries.

On the European side, interest in pipeline plans is lower because “demand for fossil fuels is likely to decline”.

By contrast, railway and motorway networks and data connections are of particular interest for both economic and political reasons.

According to the SWP, these serve Europe’s geopolitical interests in establishing closer and more resilient connections with the Gulf region and the Indian Ocean.

In the view of the German think tank, “alternative… transport routes” created by bypassing Iran will in effect become the “geo-economic equivalent of missile defence”.