Middle East
Where does Türkiye fit into the Syrian equation?

In its official statements, Türkiye claims it is not involved in the clashes in northwestern Syria, which escalated again on 27 November. However, the participation of elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—referred to as the Syrian National Army (SNA) by Ankara—in clashes in Aleppo on the side of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the group’s entry into Tel Rifaat, indicates that Türkiye is not entirely removed from the situation. Shortly before these developments, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Türkiye’s Astana partners for their inaction regarding terrorism and the refugee crisis in Syria, stating: “Where diplomacy does not get an answer, other kinds of steps can be taken.”
On 29 November, Türkiye issued its first official statement regarding attacks launched by terrorist groups in Idlib against the Syrian army on 27 November, which led to the capture of Aleppo and movements toward Hama.
In a statement shared on social media, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Öncü Keçeli attributed the HTS attack on Aleppo to the recent escalation of attacks in Idlib. While avoiding direct references to specific groups, Keçeli emphasized:
“We have made the necessary warnings on various international platforms, stating that the recent attacks on Idlib have reached a dimension that will harm the spirit and functioning of the Astana agreements and cause serious civilian casualties. These attacks must stop.”
He further noted that the clashes have heightened tensions, and Türkiye is closely monitoring the increase in attacks by terrorist groups—such as the YPG, the Syrian affiliate of the PKK—in Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Keçeli expressed concern about the failure to implement agreements aimed at eliminating terrorist threats in these areas.
The next day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Türkiye was not directly involved in the Aleppo clashes, stating:
“We will not take any action that triggers a new wave of migration.”
Fidan emphasized Turkey’s vigilance over developments in Syria, particularly the potential for instability to drive another mass migration. Hosting approximately 3 million Syrian refugees, Türkiye has long warned that further conflict in Idlib—home to nearly 2 million displaced people—could exacerbate the refugee crisis.
Türkiye has expressed dissatisfaction with the reluctance of the Syrian government and its Astana partners—Russia and Iran—to address key issues, including the refugee crisis and the YPG threat. According to a report in the Financial Times, Iraqi mediators revealed that Damascus refused to take steps on refugee repatriation, continuing instead to bombard rebel-held Idlib, which has displaced thousands toward the Turkish border.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to cooperate in normalizing relations. However, this process has stalled due to Assad’s demand for a Turkish troop withdrawal and a corresponding timeline—preconditions Ankara rejects. Foreign Minister Fidan has noted that both Russia and Iran appear unwilling to pressure Assad, further complicating normalization efforts.
Syrian ‘opposition’ sources in Türkiye told Al-Akhbar of Türkiye’s position: ‘The war would not have started without its approval, but there may not be a target match between what Ankara wants and what the Syrian opposition wants.”
Analysts said that while Türkiye may not have explicitly approved the HTS-led attack, it would serve Türkiye’s interests and give Ankara more leverage in any negotiations, the FT reported.
Syrian analyst Malik al-Abdeh said: “Since the summer, Assad has had a chance to sit down with Erdogan and work out a plan in which Türkiye would create a zone of influence in northern Syria. He had a chance to negotiate this situation politically while preserving his dignity, but he refused.”
The HTS is listed as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations (UN). Therefore, Türkiye also considers HTS a terrorist organisation. However, it is well known that some elements of the FSA, which is officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks.
It is a common view that Türkiye gave its ‘consent’ to the HTS attack in order to pressure Assad over a strategic city like Aleppo and force him to back down from the conditions he had set out for normalisation. Türkiye wants to complete the normalisation process with Damascus, with the main goals being the return of refugees and the elimination of the YPG threat.
However, given that the very name of normalisation has led to attacks by such groups on Türkiye’s assets in Syria, the wisdom of taking this step in pursuit of this goal is debatable.
The HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye. Nonetheless, there is evidence that elements of the FSA, officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks. Analysts suggest Türkiye tacitly approved the HTS offensive to pressure Assad into concessions, particularly regarding Aleppo, a strategic city.
Amid these tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to discuss regional stability. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to combating Takfiri terrorists and expressed hopes for greater cooperation with Türkiye on mutual security concerns. He noted that while Türkiye and Iran share some common ground, disagreements persist.
Middle East
Ceasefire talks in Gaza intensify before Trump visit

Ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza have accelerated ahead of US President Donald Trump’s planned Middle East visit in mid-May. It was claimed that Hamas agreed to release more Israeli hostages for a ceasefire, and the US promised to pressure Israel to start permanent ceasefire negotiations. In addition, the disarmament of Hamas under Egyptian supervision is on the agenda.
After the first phase of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, was completed, the Israeli administration did not agree to move on to the second phase, in which it had to end its occupation of Gaza. It requested that the first phase of the ceasefire be extended and, in return, Hamas release 11 Israeli hostages. Hamas, which wants to move on to the second phase of the ceasefire, responded to Israel’s new offer by saying that it could release 5 hostages. Israel rejected the proposal and restarted the Gaza attacks on March 18. Since then, attacks and ground occupation have continued, while negotiations for a ceasefire have also been conducted.
According to a report by Saudi Arabia-based El-Arabiya, Israel stated in its latest offer that it was ready to reduce the number of hostages to be released. It was reported that Hamas also agreed to release more hostages. However, no clear number was given.
If an agreement is reached under the proposed draft, the hostages will be released in two stages, and humanitarian aid will be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip.
In addition, it was stated that the US promised Hamas that it would force Israel into negotiations to end the war; it was noted that discussions on whether Hamas leaders could stay in Gaza were postponed to a later date.
The Saudi source also reported that, as part of a possible agreement, Hamas would provide medical reports on the health conditions of the hostages.
According to a report by Haaretz newspaper, based on Palestinian sources, the Cairo and Doha administrations are working with the US on a new phase of the ceasefire agreement reached in January. This phase will also include negotiations to end the 18-month war.
According to the news, Egypt submitted a permanent ceasefire proposal that includes the disarmament of Hamas and that this be done under Cairo’s supervision.
The report also stated that Hamas does not expect major results from the current negotiations, but believes there is an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement before US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar in mid-May.
Meanwhile, according to Ynet, which conveyed its source without explanation, the US assured Hamas that if it agreed to release more than 8 hostages, Israel would participate in negotiations to end the war.
A Hamas official told AFP on Friday that the Cairo delegation, headed by the group’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, hoped to achieve “real progress that would end the war, stop the attacks, and ensure the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces from Gaza.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on Sunday evening that Netanyahu emphasized in his meeting with the family of hostage Eitan Mor that efforts to rescue the hostages held by Hamas were continuing “even at this very moment.”
The Times of Israel published on Friday, citing two officials close to the talks, that Netanyahu softened his demands after his meeting with Trump in Washington last week.
The officials who spoke to the newspaper said on Thursday that Israel had conveyed its official response to the latest Egyptian-mediated offer. According to this response, Israel is demanding the release of hostages in the first two weeks of the 45-day ceasefire and rejects Hamas’s previously proposed time-phased release plan.
In addition, the Israeli side wants to reduce the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each hostage. These prisoners include those sentenced to life imprisonment. The latest offer also requests the delivery of the bodies of 16 Israelis held in Gaza. In return, the bodies of Gazans held by Israel will be handed over.
On the other hand, it is claimed that Netanyahu has the support of his far-right coalition partners, who threatened to overthrow his government if he ended the war. However, opinion polls also show that the majority of the public supports ending the war in exchange for the release of the hostages. It is thought that only 24 of the 59 hostages held by Hamas are still alive.
Middle East
Türkiye and Israel in Syria talks, likened to ‘Sykes-Picot’ agreement

Israel and Türkiye have initiated direct contacts in Azerbaijan, citing the need to “avoid confrontation in Syria.” The Israeli press has interpreted these meetings as a path toward the de facto division of Syria. A former navy commander described the meetings as “a kind of Sykes-Picot agreement.”
Israel and Türkiye have begun technical-level talks in Azerbaijan to prevent a potential conflict in the Syrian arena after Bashar al-Assad. The primary goal of the meetings is to “reduce the risk of conflict in military movements on the ground and to determine the red lines of the parties.”
However, according to comments in the Israeli press, these contacts may signal a tacit agreement on the de facto division of Syria. Al-Mayadeen reported from Israeli media that Israel’s former Navy Commander Eliezer Marom made a striking comparison, saying, “A kind of Sykes-Picot agreement has been made between us and Türkiye.” According to Marom, “Syria will not remain a single and whole state; it will be fragmented. Türkiye also has interests in some of these fragments.”
Israeli television channel News 13 also interpreted the meetings in Azerbaijan as “a sign of a new era in which Syria will be geographically divided.”
Prior to these contacts, Israel’s attack on the T4 airbase in Syria had raised tensions. This base is alleged to be among the points where Türkiye plans to deploy militarily.
The first confirmation regarding the meetings came from Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. In a statement on CNN Türk, Fidan announced that technical negotiations had begun with Israel to establish a “non-conflict mechanism.” The Ministry of National Defense also announced that the first meeting took place in Azerbaijan. On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office also confirmed the direct talks, thanking Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for his mediation.
Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported that no agreement was reached at the meetings held on Wednesday, and the second round would take place after Passover, which ends on April 20. The same source also claimed that Türkiye did not allow the plane carrying Israeli officials to Azerbaijan to enter its airspace, and the plane had to take a circuitous route via Bulgaria and Greece.
Speaking to The Jerusalem Post, an Israeli official said that Türkiye establishing a military base, especially in the Palmyra region, is a red line for Israel, and this position was clearly conveyed to the Turkish side at the meeting in Azerbaijan. The same official stated that the new administration led by HTŞ leader Ahmed Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) would be held responsible for possible threats against Israel in the Syrian arena.
Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen also expressed a cautious attitude towards the process, saying, “We do not want a conflict with Türkiye,” but he also emphasized, “We are against the Turkish military presence in Syria.”
However, in Israel, it is assessed that the Netanyahu government does not have many options to balance Türkiye’s influence in Syria.
Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a semi-official institution reflecting the views of the Israeli security bureaucracy, told The Times of Israel, “Ultimately, when it comes to Syria, Türkiye is much more interested in and invested in that country than Israel is. Israel’s interest in Syria is only security-focused. This gives Ankara an advantage.”
Lindenstrauss also stated that US President Donald Trump’s support for President Tayyip Erdoğan further narrowed Israel’s room for maneuver.
Lindenstrauss made the following assessment: “President Trump made it clear during his last meeting with Netanyahu in Washington that he was willing to help Israel on the issue of Türkiye, but that Israel needed to make ‘reasonable demands’ for this to happen. Trump wants to force Israel into a more minimalist approach in Syria. Israel must prioritize and insist only on its most critical red lines, such as preventing the transfer of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria.”
Middle East
HTS-led Syria forms ties with South Korea

Syria, which was an ally of North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) under the Assad regime, has signed a diplomatic recognition agreement with South Korea under the administration of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
According to Al Jazeera, this development is seen as a significant diplomatic achievement for HTS leader Ahmed Shara, who declared himself president. It also represents a strategic blow to North Korea, which has been an ally of Syria for years.
The agreement to establish diplomatic relations was signed yesterday evening in Damascus between South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and Syrian Foreign Minister Assad Hasan al-Sheybani. Speaking at the ceremony, Minister Cho stated that South Korea is ready to contribute to the reconstruction of Syria with investments and humanitarian aid after 13 years of civil war.
Sheybani stated that they expect support from Seoul in easing the international sanctions on the Damascus government. This statement was also confirmed in a written statement by the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
It was reported that diplomatic negotiations between the two countries began in February, gained momentum with the approval of the South Korean cabinet, and were officially completed this week, according to the Yonhap news agency.
This development occurred at a time when both countries are undergoing a political transformation. In December, armed groups led by HTS overthrew the Assad regime and then formed a transitional government. South Korea is also facing a major political crisis. President Yoon Suk-yeol was removed from office last week by a decision of the Constitutional Court. In December, Yoon briefly declared martial law, claiming that “anti-state” and “North Korea-backed” elements had infiltrated the government, which drew strong reactions from the public and parliament.
The country is currently governed by an interim president, and a new leader will be determined by an early election to be held in June.
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