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Who will be next PM as protest continues against alleged vote-rigging in Pakistan

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Pakistan’s surprising election results have pushed the political parties into coalition talks but at the same time the people who voted in large numbers, have continued to protest for five consecutive days over alleged vote-rigging in the 8 February parliamentary elections.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, and the Jamaat-e-Islami party had called on their supporters to take to the streets and rally outside the election commission office.

Thousands of supporters of Imran Khan, who is in jail over fraud allegations, and other political parties have blocked key highways in the southwestern province of Balochistan to protest the alleged rigging, but the Pakistani election authorities rejected allegations pertaining to rigging during the elections.

Intendent candidates backed by Khan were able to secure 93 out of 265 seats contested in the National Assembly, or lower house of parliament. It has been reported that Khan’s candidates had secured more seats compared to other political parties who hatched conspiracy and ousted him from power nearly two years ago.

Pakistan election body rejected vote-rigging in general elections

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has strongly refuted allegations of vote-rigging during the elections but acknowledged the occurrence of a few irregularities.

The electoral watchdog acknowledged that it does not deny the occurrence of a few irregularities and that relevant forms were available for investigation, ECP said in a statement, adding immediate decisions are being taken on complaints filed.

Supporters of Pakistani former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), block the Peshawar-Islamabad motorway as part of their protest against the results of the general election, in Peshawar, Pakistan, February 12, 2024. REUTERS

However, the election body said that the electoral process was peacefully organized despite “difficulties and issues” and furthered that conducting the elections smoothly was a “major operation” which was completed successfully.

Commenting on the delay in election results, the ECP said that the suspension of mobile services on February 8 created some hindrances in the sending of electronic data by presiding officers.

“Except for some constituencies, the results of the elections were completed within one-and-a-half days,” the statement said, adding, “the delay in results in some constituencies did not benefit or harm any specific political party.”

Despite 265 seats in the National Assembly, the polling was also held for 590 seats of provincial assemblies.

Caretaker PM says election result delays due to security reason

Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar said that the election result was delayed due to security reasons, adding that the pool was a “level-playing field” for all.

“There were large reports throughout the country that these non-state actors, these terrorists, are planning to come and sabotage the whole process. So, what was the choice with the government to itself from so-called accusations of meddling into the election, or go for the protection of the people. We choose the second,” Kakar added.

He furthered, “level-playing field was of course available as a process to everyone and all the participants. If it was not available then how come you have a largest group in the National Assembly which is being supported by PTI, I mean they’re the single largest group and still we are being accused that we managed the rigging.”

Political parties split on whether to join a coalition government

After Khan’s party had secured more seats in the National Assembly no other choice left for major political parties like the three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for a coalition talk.

Though now it is very clear that the Pakistan Muslim League (N) would dominate the coalition government in center, some of its top figures are reluctant to give much more share to the Pakistan People’s Party. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek Insaf affiliated independents are in majority but they are scattered and some of them, mostly from Punjab are joining PML(N).

The PML-N party of former PM Nawaz Sharif says it continues to negotiate with the PPP to clinch a partnership. Reuters

So far results of 264 out of 266 National Assembly seats have been declared by the Election Commission of Pakistan. According to these results, the independents over 95pc affiliated with PTI are dominating the list with 92 and they are followed by PML(N) with 79, PPP with 54 and MQM with 17. After notification of reserve seats for women and non-Muslim minorities, the PML(n) like to undue PTI backed independents but it will be hard for it to have its own government in center.

Whatever may be the final figures of the National Assembly, PML(N) has no option other than entering into an agreement with PPP for establishing a coalition government. So far negotiations between the two parties are progressing and likely to ink the agreement in the very near future. According to reports, the PM office is likely to be retained by PML(N) and the President and Speaker offices would go to PPP. It is premature to say but Shahbaz Sharif is acceptable not only to the PPP but also to the powerful military establishment.

Is the coalition government a better option?

Unlike in the past, this time PML(n) vocal against military establishment like Khawaja Saad Rafique, Sheikh Rohail Asghar and others had also failed to make routes to parliament. There are reports that like outgoing caretaker government, ministers, advisors and other nominees for key official posts will be required clearance from state organs.

Like the capital (Islamabad), similar is the situation in Balochistan where no party got a single majority. Both PPP and JUI(F) are in majority with 11 berths each in the house of 51. PML(N) is second with 10 whereas strength of independents is 6. All nationalists both Pushtoons and Baluch, remained with single digits. Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is favorable for PTI whereas its backed independents got an overwhelming majority. The PTI is in the position of its own government but its leaders are divided regarding future political strategies.

Ironically, despite fueling or strengthening its position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI is now ahead with capable leadership. Almost all its top leaders like ex-speaker Asad Qaisar, former federal and provincial ministers like Ali Muhammad Khan, Sheheryar Afridi, Atif Khan, Ms Shandana Gulzar, Arbab Sher Ali, Ali Asghar Khan and others were elected to National Assembly. Only ex-Federal Minister Ali Amen Gandha Pur elected to both National and Provincial Assemblies and he decided to quit the NA seat and eyeing on the office of Chief Minister but some of his own party fellows like Atif Khan from Mardan are in his opposition.

Like past, 2024 elections will also fail to settle crippling issues in Pakistan

“No doubt to mention that like in the past, 2024 elections also would face failure in settling the issues ahead to the country and its people,” Shamaim Shahid, a Pakistani political expert said.

Speaking to Harici, he said that beside other difficulties, Pakistan is facing hard issues like “economic disorder, bad governance, security, religious extremism and militancy.”

He went on saying that all those who reached into parliament lacked capacities and capabilities in handling these issues. However, there is a possibility if the powerful military establishment gives up its decade’s old behavior of “interference and intervention in politico-administrative affairs of the country.

ANP Senator Afrasiab Khattak

As Mr. Shahid hinted at a bad security situation, at least three people were killed and five others wounded when unidentified attackers opened fire on a vehicle in the rally of Pakistan Peoples Party. The incident happened when people on board the vehicle were going to congratulate PPP candidate Ahmed Karim Kundu for his victory in a provincial assembly set in the general elections, according to DAWN.

A police official said that the incident happened in the limits of Hattala police station and said that immediately police reached the spot after receiving information and shifted the dead and injured to hospital.

No free and fair elections in the history of Pakistan

On 8 February, the election day in Pakistan, the process was apparently conducted in a transparent way and no rigging was seen at first place when the people approached polling stations to cast their votes, said a Pakistani veteran politician.

Former Pakistani senator, Afrasib Khattak, said that rigging in the election came after the process of counting votes started and the people staged protests against it.

“People went to vote enthusiastically, but immediately turned to the streets to protest against enormous election rigging being designed by the military establishment,” Khattak, who is also a leader of the National Democratic Movement, told Harici.

He lamented that some Pakistan authorities resorted to violence and some police officials started beating up some protestors and even shooting directly toward them, resulting in casualties.

Regarding vote-rigging, Khan said that the first rigging in the election was when Imran Khan’s political party was barred from election campaign, and second had been carried out on the night of the election day.

“In some states the majority of rigging happened against Khan’s candidates, but most of the political parties have the same complaint that the election was not conducted in a transparent, free and fair way,” he added.

He furthered that violence had erupted in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and in Waziristan as well in which an armed attack happened against Mohsin Dawar, the Chairman of the National Democratic Movement in Waziristan. “Three people were killed and Mr. Dawar received injures in the attack.”

Free elections were only conducted in 1970

Khattak furthered that rigging in the election has occurred in such a massive way that no political parties have the capability to do it except the establishment. “Vote-rigging occurred in all states. It is not the case in one or two provinces. And also, to force the officials of the election body to accept the election result could only be the work of the Pakistani military establishment,” he furthered.

“The only one free and fair election in the history of Pakistan was in 1970, in which a politically party with majority of them were Bangali’s, had won the election, but the opposition didn’t accept the result, unleashing deep political crisis that caused separation of Pakistan and formation of Bangladesh as an Independent country,” he added.

Since that, in every election, the military establishment has interfered in the elections.

Khattak furthered that no parties had won the election and now major political parties are considering the formation of coalition government, which he believes is not an easy job.

“Within 21 days after the election, the government must be formed, which means at the first week of March, the government should be announced and before that the political parties should negotiate form a coalition government, and this is a time-consuming process,” he added.

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Chinese navy chief and top nuclear scientist expelled from legislature

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The chief of staff for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, Vice Admiral Li Hanjun, and Liu Shipeng, the deputy chief engineer of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation, were removed from their positions in the country’s legislative body.

Li is the latest in a series of PLA generals and a handful of defense industry executives implicated in a widespread investigation within the military.

In a statement on Friday, the NPC Standing Committee announced, “The Navy Soldiers’ Congress has decided to remove Li Hanjun from his post as a representative to the 14th National People’s Congress.”

The Gansu People’s Congress also dismissed Liu Shipeng from his role as an NPC deputy.

Additionally, the Standing Committee revealed it had voted to remove Miao Hua, a former top general who previously oversaw the PLA’s ideological work, from the Central Military Commission (CMC), China’s highest military command body led by President Xi Jinping.

The removal of Li and Liu from their NPC memberships suggests they are facing serious disciplinary action.

China typically remains silent about purges within the military, and announcements from the NPC are one of the few indicators of such campaigns.

There is little public information available about Li and Liu, as both have worked in sensitive positions.

Before becoming the navy’s chief of staff, Li, 60, was the deputy director of the CMC’s Training and Administration Department. He was appointed to this role after serving for a year in the CMC’s Office for Reform and Organisational Structure.

In 2014, he was promoted to vice admiral upon his appointment as commander of the naval base in Fujian province, where Miao also spent a significant part of his career. At that time, he was the director of training at the China Naval Command College and was soon promoted to president of the school.

According to official media reports, nuclear scientist Liu was born into a family that “served China’s nuclear dream for three generations.”

As the deputy chief engineer at CNNC, which oversees all aspects of China’s civil and military nuclear programs, Liu also served as the Communist Party secretary and president of CNNC’s “404 base” in Gansu.

Covering an area of over 1,000 square kilometers, the base was established in 1958 and is the country’s first and largest nuclear research center. It played a crucial role in the development of China’s first atomic bomb in 1964 and its first hydrogen bomb three years later.

This secretive base is still considered a key hub for China’s nuclear deterrence and nuclear industry.

According to statements from provincial authorities, Liu was named “Gansu’s outstanding entrepreneur” in 2023.

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China, US reach agreement on export controls

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The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday afternoon that Beijing and Washington have remained in close contact since the two-day trade talks in London earlier this month, confirming the details of a framework agreement.

“China will review and approve export applications for controlled items in accordance with its laws and regulations, and the US side will, in turn, lift a series of restrictive measures against China,” the ministry stated.

“We hope the US side will cooperate with China in line with the important consensus and conditions established during the conversation between the two presidents on June 5,” the statement continued.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the US had “signed” a trade deal with China the previous day, without providing details.

“We signed the deal with China yesterday, right? We signed the deal with China,” Trump said at a White House event introducing a budget law. “With the China deal, we are starting to open up China,” he added.

He also mentioned that a “very big” deal, likely with India, would be signed soon.

Rare earth elements

Following the event, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that the US and China had signed an agreement codifying the terms decided upon in previous trade negotiations.

“They will deliver rare earth elements to us,” Lutnick said in a televised interview with Bloomberg, adding that if this commitment is fulfilled, Washington will lift its “countermeasures.”

Rare earth elements, essential for producing high-tech products, including those for the defense industry, were a major point of contention in the trade talks. China holds a near-monopoly on the supply of these minerals due to its massive share of global refining capacity.

Responding to a question on Thursday about rare earth exports, ministry spokesman He Yadong said China had approved a “certain number” of applications and would “continue to strengthen” the review and approval process for eligible applications.

He added that Beijing is willing to “strengthen communication and dialogue” with other countries on export controls and actively promote appropriate trade.

Lutnick also stated that the US plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners in the coming weeks. The deadline for countries to negotiate trade terms before higher tariffs are reinstated was July 9, following a 90-day suspension of import tariff hikes announced on April 2.

The two negotiating teams concluded the London talks by announcing they had agreed “in principle” on a “framework” that both sides would take home for their respective leaders to review, as they sought to get their uneasy truce, signed last month in Geneva, back on track.

The negotiations began after a highly anticipated phone call between Xi Jinping and Trump, which seemingly ended an intractable stalemate.

In the weeks following the initial agreement in Switzerland, Washington claimed China was restricting exports of critical minerals, while Beijing reacted to US restrictions on semiconductors and threats to impose visa barriers on Chinese students.

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China hosts SCO defense ministers on warship amid regional tensions

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Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun hosted his Iranian counterpart and other high-level defense officials from Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states aboard an advanced Chinese warship, just days after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh was among the defense officials welcomed by Dong on a military vessel in the coastal city of Qingdao, China, as part of a two-day SCO defense ministers’ meeting that concluded on Thursday.

According to Chinese state television CCTV, Nasirzadeh and other defense officials toured the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s Type 052D destroyer, the Kaifeng, and later attended a reception on the ship’s deck.

Aboard the ship, Nasirzadeh thanked Beijing for “supporting Iran’s legitimate position following the recent attacks” by Israel and the US.

“We hope that China will continue to stand on the side of justice, help maintain the current ceasefire, and play a greater role in de-escalating regional tensions,” Nasirzadeh said, according to Xinhua.

In his address to the assembled ministers, Dong reportedly stated that “unilateralism, protectionism, and hegemonic and bullying acts are on the rise, seriously disrupting the international order and becoming the greatest source of chaos and conflict.”

Dong called for closer cooperation within the United Nations, the SCO, and other multilateral frameworks, urging members to unite with “more like-minded forces” to defend international justice and maintain global stability.

“SCO countries must remain true to the organization’s founding ideals, uphold the ‘Shanghai Spirit,’ and deepen practical cooperation in all areas,” Dong said. “With stronger actions, we can jointly safeguard a peaceful environment for development,” he added.

The event followed the US attacks on three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities on Saturday, which Beijing strongly condemned.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the attacks on nuclear facilities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency seriously violated the UN Charter and its principles.

Additionally, the SCO meeting coincided with a NATO leaders’ summit in The Hague. In a statement from The Hague, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would hold talks with Iran about a possible nuclear deal “in the coming week.”

Bilateral Talks

According to Xinhua, the Chinese defense minister later held separate bilateral meetings with the defense ministers of Belarus, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The state news agency reported that all parties appreciated Beijing’s efforts and significant contributions to developing SCO operational mechanisms and deepening inter-sectoral cooperation during its rotating presidency. They also expressed a strong will to further consolidate and expand military ties.

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif praised Beijing’s role in de-escalating tensions. “Pakistan highly values its robust friendship with China and is ready to work together to implement its three global initiatives, deepen military cooperation, and help maintain regional peace and stability,” he said.

For Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, this year—the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II, the Chinese people’s war of resistance against Japanese aggression, and the world’s anti-fascist war—presents an opportunity to deepen bilateral military relations. “In line with the consensus of our leaders, we will intensify strategic communication and cooperation and contribute to global strategic stability,” he said.

Meanwhile, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh also attended the Qingdao meeting. This marked the first visit by an Indian defense minister to China since the deadly border clash between the two countries in 2020.

Military trust

According to the Chinese Ministry of Defense, the SCO defense ministers’ meeting is one of the key events held during China’s rotating presidency of the SCO this year. The ministers, along with representatives from the SCO and regional anti-terrorism bodies, gathered to further strengthen military trust and deepen practical cooperation among member states.

The SCO, a 10-nation bloc comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Belarus, currently covers approximately three-fifths of the Eurasian continent and about 43% of the world’s population.

The Beijing meeting, held under the rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, highlighted China’s role as a significant international actor and the importance Tehran places on its relationship with Beijing, even as China has largely remained on the sidelines of the Israel-Iran conflict.

During a regular press conference at the Chinese Ministry of Defense on Thursday, when asked if Beijing was considering providing military support to Iran as an SCO member, ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang told CNN, “China is ready to cooperate with all parties to play a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East.”

Kaifeng destroyer

The Kaifeng destroyer, where the meeting’s reception was held, is the sixth vessel of the extended Type 052D variant and serves in the North Sea Fleet. Commissioned in April 2021, the ship is approximately 159 meters (521 feet) long, weighs 7,500 tons, and is equipped with 517C anti-stealth radar. Its expanded deck allows for the landing of the PLA Navy’s Z-20 helicopters.

The warship has conducted numerous long-range exercises, including a passage through the Tsushima Strait in April, as part of Beijing’s growing operational presence in the western Pacific.

It was publicly displayed during the 74th-anniversary celebrations of the Chinese navy in Qingdao in 2023.

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