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Xi in Paris: Our relations with France at the forefront of relations with major Western countries

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Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Paris on Sunday afternoon local time, the first stop on a three-nation European tour. Xi, who was welcomed in Paris by French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, said in a written statement that over the past 60 years, China-France relations have long been at the forefront of China’s relations with major Western countries, setting a good example for the international community on peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation between countries with different systems.

The development of China-France relations has not only benefited the two peoples, but also “injected stability and positive energy” into the turbulent world, the Chinese leader said.

In a separate article in the French daily Le Figaro, the Chinese president said he had come to France with three messages: That Beijing is determined to open ‘new horizons’ in its relations with France, to open up to the world ‘even more’ and to safeguard world peace and stability.

Xi’s visit to France comes as this year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France.

Xi will hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Paris today, 6 May.

On Tuesday, Macron will take the Chinese leader and his wife to the Pyrenees mountains, where he used to visit his grandmother as a child. The two couples are also expected to take a cable car to the top of the 2,877-metre Pic du Midi, a dark sky reserve.

After France, the Chinese leader will travel to Serbia and Hungary, two countries with close ties to Russia.

Crisis agenda

The talks will focus on international crises, in particular the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East,’ the Elysee Palace said in a statement ahead of the visit last week.

Macron is expected to ask Xi to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. In an interview with the Economist last week, the French president argued that the war was existential for Europe.

In addition to the war in Ukraine, Europe is also concerned about China’s trade practices and has launched an investigation into Chinese subsidies to electric car makers, amid concerns that such payments undermine competition and hurt European companies.

Macron told the Economist that he would also tell Xi why Europe must protect its own manufacturers and industries.

On Sunday night, von der Leyen also signalled the EU’s continued displeasure with China, which she said was “currently producing with huge subsidies”.

Promoting strategic autonomy

In a press briefing on 29 April after China announced the visit, Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye said: ‘President Xi will have a comprehensive and in-depth strategic communication with French President Emmanuel Macron on China-France and China-Europe relations. He will encourage France to maintain strategic autonomy and openness in cooperation, thus leading Europe to build a more independent, objective and friendly understanding of China and resist negative trends such as ‘de-risking’ and ‘de-dependence’ on China,’ he said.

Trade deals expected

People familiar with the negotiations said China could announce an order for around 50 Airbus planes during Xi’s visit, but it remains unclear whether this will lead to a new deal.

Pierre Picquart, an expert in geopolitics and human geography at the University of Paris-VIII, told the Global Times that Xi’s visit is important in three ways:

‘Economically, it could pave the way for trade agreements and promote mutually beneficial investment in key sectors such as technology, innovation, energy and infrastructure. Diplomatically, it provides an ideal platform to strengthen coordination and cooperation between China and France on key global issues such as climate change, international security and public health. On the cultural and educational front, this visit can open up new opportunities for cooperation in education, research and culture, thereby strengthening exchanges between our peoples and deepening our mutual understanding.

Special welcome for Xi

Chinese and French national flags were hoisted at one end of the Champs-Élysées boulevard and on the street in front of Les Invalides to welcome Xi.

On Sunday afternoon, near the Arc de Triomphe in central Paris, many Chinese and French students waved Chinese and French national flags to welcome Xi Jinping. The students carried banners saying “Long live China-France friendship” and “We wish President Xi a successful visit to France”.

In preparation for Xi’s visit and to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, various events were organised.

A symposium on “Exchange and Mutual Learning between Chinese and French Civilisations” was held on Friday. Co-organised by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing and the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilisations in Paris, the symposium brought together nearly 100 scholars from the two countries to discuss China-France cross-cultural exchange practices, scientific and technological innovation, and the future of civilisation.

Antoine Broussy, director of the Charles de Gaulle Foundation, told the Global Times that many other special events have been organised in Paris.

Xi will be officially received by Macron at the Elysee Palace today. This will be followed by a state dinner to mark 60 years of relations between France and the People’s Republic of China.

Chinese support for Macron’s calls

French President Macron’s call for Europe’s ‘strategic autonomy’ is a recurring theme.

Both Xi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi have previously said that China supports Europe strengthening its strategic autonomy and taking its future into its own hands.

During his visit to China last year, French President Macron warned Europe against being drawn into a US-China confrontation over Taiwan, prompting the US magazine Foreign Policy to describe strategic autonomy as ‘a French pipe dream’.

He Zhigao, a research fellow at the CASS Institute for European Studies, told the Global Times that the US wants to keep Europe under tight control to bind it to the Washington-led Western camp.

If Europe looks at China from a global perspective that can benefit the world, China is an opportunity. But if it is on the side of the US, then China should be a challenge,’ he said, adding that China’s engagement with Europe is for common development.

According to a report by Business France, China has been the largest Asian country in terms of investment and job creation in France for three consecutive years. While Sino-French development in core sectors such as aviation, nuclear energy and trade is flourishing, emerging areas such as renewable energy and the digital economy are likely to become new engines of growth.

Xin Hua, Director and Chair Professor of the Centre for European Union Studies at the Shanghai Graduate School of International Studies, believes that China-France relations are the cornerstone of China-Europe relations: France is one of the most important core members of the EU, and its strategic orientations play a decisive role in the EU’s integration process and the strategic and security model of the European continent. As long as China and France maintain positive interaction, China-Europe relations will remain stable.

Divisive discussions

The 27 members of the EU, particularly France and Germany, are divided over their stance on China.

According to The Guardian, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will not join Macron and Xi in Paris because of prior commitments.

There is no consensus in Europe on this issue because some actors still see China mainly as a market of opportunities,’ Macron said, without naming any countries.

France will also seek progress on opening up the Chinese market to its agricultural exports and address the concerns of the French cosmetics industry over intellectual property rights, officials said.

Ahead of Xi’s visit, Western media described the Chinese leader’s tour as ‘an attempt to divide Europe’. According to the Financial Times, Xi is trying to increase his influence in the region by playing on Europe’s ‘fissures’.

According to Matt Geracim, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Centre, the Chinese president went to Europe with three objectives: ‘to repair relations in Europe damaged by China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, to blunt the EU’s economic security agenda against China, and to showcase Beijing’s strong ties with its loyal partners Serbia and Hungary’.

Chinese experts told the Global Times that these claims are ‘paranoid’ and that Xi’s visit is aimed at boosting exchanges with Europe in all areas, especially trade.

DIPLOMACY

EU, Mercosur aim to finalize trade deal by early December

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The European Commission and Mercosur countries are working to complete negotiations on a long-anticipated trade deal by early December, sources familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.

Farmers are expected to rally against the deal in Brussels on Wednesday, with additional protests in France later in the week.

The upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro was initially seen as the ideal opportunity to finalize the agreement, which has been under negotiation for nearly 25 years.

“All the cards are on the table,” said one person familiar with the EU-Mercosur talks. “They want to ensure a near-finalized deal, so Ursula [von der Leyen] doesn’t make the trip in vain.” However, the signing of the agreement might be delayed over concerns that China could overshadow the summit.

A European Commission official confirmed that face-to-face talks are scheduled for the week of November 25 in Brazil to resolve any outstanding issues. While the official refrained from specifying a completion date, they emphasized that the Mercosur nations—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia—are pushing to sign the agreement promptly.

Uruguay is set to host the Mercosur summit from December 2–4, with Argentina, under newly elected Javier Milei, assuming the bloc’s presidency.

China concerns accelerate EU-Mercosur deal timeline

This “cows-for-cars” trade deal would eliminate trade barriers and establish a common market encompassing around 800 million people, representing 20% of global GDP. For European countries, particularly Germany, this agreement is viewed as overdue, especially given China’s expanding economic footprint in South America, where European firms are increasingly being sidelined.

“If we don’t reach a trade agreement with [Mercosur], China will inevitably fill the void,” remarked Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new foreign minister, on Tuesday. Citing data, she added that Chinese investment in Latin America surged 34-fold between 2020 and 2022.

Those familiar with the negotiations indicated that certain issues remain unresolved, including public procurement regulations, environmental provisions, and the legal structure of the agreement.

Mercosur nations are particularly keen on securing more flexibility from the EU and additional time for local firms to compete with European counterparts. Brazil has also expressed a desire to protect its domestic automotive industry from EU imports, especially electric vehicles.

France’s reluctance and Macron’s challenges

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas recently stated to POLITICO that Mercosur countries are eager to finalize the deal before the Mercosur summit. However, Primas remains skeptical that the agreement will enable the EU to effectively counter China’s influence in Latin America.

Amid concerns over a potential surge in agricultural imports, France successfully blocked the Mercosur negotiations in January, just as they were nearing completion. This time, however, President Emmanuel Macron faces a tougher challenge, especially after recent electoral setbacks in the European Parliament and National Assembly.

In a recent letter published in Le Monde, over 600 French MPs from both parliamentary chambers urged von der Leyen not to proceed with the deal, citing unmet democratic, economic, environmental, and social standards for an agreement with Mercosur.

Paris falls short of blocking coalition

Despite recent efforts to secure opposition, Paris is unlikely to gather the qualified minority—representing at least 35% of the EU population—needed to block the deal when it comes to a vote among EU member states.

France has also launched a diplomatic campaign to persuade other EU nations to oppose the agreement. However, two diplomats with direct knowledge report that Italy has not been swayed.

Italy remains cautious in supporting the deal, wary of the potential for political fallout like that seen in France.

‘France’s opposition is symbolic; the battle is lost’

Over the weekend, Macron traveled to Argentina to meet with Milei ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to visit Buenos Aires on November 20.

Although French ministers have vehemently opposed the deal and increased efforts to build a blocking minority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier has kept a low profile. Barnier is expected to meet with von der Leyen and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels today (November 13) and will likely address the Mercosur agreement, which he opposes in its current form.

Critics argue that France’s resistance is mostly symbolic, and that Paris has already lost this battle.

For years, France has insisted on incorporating the Paris Agreement and enacting legally binding deforestation commitments as part of the Mercosur deal. In response, the European Commission has indicated its intent to support French demands in the final phase of negotiations, although Mercosur countries have repeatedly signaled their resistance to any form of sanctions.

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Japan, UK to launch bilateral economic dialogue ahead of potential Trump tariffs

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Japan and the UK are set to initiate an economic version of the “two plus two” dialogue—a regular meeting between foreign and trade ministers—due to rising concerns about possible tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, are scheduled to meet in Rio de Janeiro during the upcoming G20 Summit on Monday, November 18. According to officials from both governments, the goal is to establish a bilateral economic dialogue.

This development follows Trump’s recent election victory and his anticipated return to the White House in January. During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from other nations, including Japan and the UK.

The Japan-UK economic dialogue aims to strengthen cooperation in upholding the international economic order, including principles of free trade.

Topics at the meeting will cover a wide range of strategic and geopolitical issues. Both partners are expected to explore ways to initiate a trade dialogue with the U.S. to prevent a potential tariff hike. Sources indicate that countermeasures may also be on the table if U.S. import tariffs do increase.

In 2023, 20% of Japan’s exports and 15% of the UK’s exports were destined for the U.S., underscoring the potential economic impact of increased tariffs.

Additionally, the UK hopes that a strengthened partnership with Japan can help offset its reduced influence since leaving the European Union (EU) in 2020.

During the previous Trump administration, the EU (of which the UK was then a member) imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and motorcycles in response to Washington’s high import duties.

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Azerbaijan plans to boost oil and gas production as it hosts COP29

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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. As the host nation, Azerbaijan is also looking to expand its fossil fuel production, positioning itself at the intersection of climate policy and energy expansion.

According to the Financial Times, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) is set to increase production of new fossil fuel sources during the COP29 summit. The summit, a key gathering on global climate change, underscores a paradox for Azerbaijan: pledging climate action while pursuing expanded oil and gas output.

A report by campaign group Global Witness, which analyzed data from independent consultancy Rystad Energy, estimates that 44% of SOCAR’s production will be new oil and gas by 2050—the second-highest proportion among national oil companies globally. This report examined production projections based on both developed and undeveloped fields as well as undiscovered fossil fuel reserves.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new long-term oil and gas projects conflict with the goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the target set by the Paris Agreement. This expansion aligns Azerbaijan with Europe’s aim to diversify energy sources, especially given the EU’s push to replace Russian gas following the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, SOCAR has increased production in recent years as Europe seeks to replace Russian natural gas with resources from other nations, including Azerbaijan. This has drawn criticism, particularly as Azerbaijan—through Muhtar Babayev, COP29 President and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources—continues to call for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

At COP28 last year in Dubai, almost 200 nations committed to phasing out fossil fuels by mid-century. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has signed multiple oil and gas deals since securing COP29 hosting rights, including SOCAR’s first international investment in upstream oil and gas—a $468 million stake in UAE gas projects.

“Azerbaijan is Europe’s strategic supplier of natural gas and is expanding capacity to meet European energy demands after the 2022 supply disruptions,” a COP29 spokesperson stated. Additionally, Azerbaijan is “expanding its renewable energy exports to serve the region and European markets,” he added. SOCAR did not respond to requests for comment.

Azerbaijan’s COP presidency has sparked criticism, echoing concerns raised during the UAE’s COP28 role. Richard Kinley, former executive secretary of the UN climate panel, expressed disappointment: “It is deeply disturbing that they can’t even seem to draw a ‘sanitary cordon’ around the COP presidency to prevent fossil fuel interests from undermining its purpose.”

Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard—attending COP29—remarked that Azerbaijan’s energy strategy also includes renewable energy initiatives, with Ørsted, a prominent wind energy company, present at the summit. However, European diplomats told the Financial Times that Azerbaijani officials have raised gas deal discussions alongside climate negotiations, mainly in relation to replacing Russian gas supplies transiting through Ukraine, with this contract ending soon.

According to Bloomberg, companies in Hungary and Slovakia are finalizing a deal with Azerbaijan to substitute gas from the Ukrainian pipeline. Energy analysts have cautioned that this agreement could mask continued Russian gas flows. Additionally, a recent report from Chatham House highlighted Azerbaijan’s strategy to secure long-term European gas supply agreements.

“By positioning itself at the heart of the multilateral climate process, the Azerbaijani government may seek to shape the global energy transition dialogue to ensure its oil and gas reserves remain profitable as long as possible,” the report suggests.

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