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Confrontation between ex-and-current PM pushing Pakistan into civil-war-like situation

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Pakistan faces a political flash point after police have charged the country’s former Prime Minster Imran Khan under anti-terror laws. Khan is looking and making efforts day and night to make possible his return as he allegedly accused the US and the Pakistan army for removing him from office in a “dawn” conspiracy. He was ousted in April following a vote of no confidence over allegations of economic mismanagement and mishandling of the country’s foreign policy.

Apparently, rising prices of food, the country’s debt and the loss of military support have only worsened under the current government led by PM Shehbaz Sharif, and people are turning back to Khan. In July, residents of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous state had given Khan’s party Tehreek-e-Insafa, a landmark victory in local elections.

During the time of elections, Khan said that “our camps are full of voters while opposition camps are empty.”

However, Khan is in big trouble now. He has so many inquiries to succeed. Khan, a cricketer-turned-politician, has been charged with “terrorizing and threatening” police officers and a female judge at a rally in the capital city Islamabad.

Khan said he “will not remain silent” and will sue the officials, referring to the police chief and judge involved in the case against Shahbaz Gill, his close aide and chief of staff. Gill, who faces sedition charges for inciting mutiny in the military, has allegedly been tortured in police custody.

Khan’s speech also prompted the country’s media watchdog to ban television channels from broadcasting his live addresses and also blocked Mr. Khan’s YouTube channel, a move Khan said will be challenged in court.

Khan in a tweet said, “Imported government blocked YouTube midway through my speech. This just shows the desperation of those who for their self interest are willing to push Pakistan towards political and economic chaos.”

It is no easy to arrest Khan

Things turned worse and fragile when Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said the government was mulling over the ex-premier Khan’s arrest, yet another big trouble for Khan but a job for the police as Khan’s supporters will not allow them to take him away so simply.

Khan himself did not immediately comment, but his hundreds of supporters surrounded his home to potentially stop police from reaching him. Khan is now secured transit bail till August 25 after he filed a pre-arrest bail application in the Islamabad High Court earlier to avoid arrest in a terror case filed against him.

Political, economic and social crisis

“I believe that confrontation between Imran Khan and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif led to coalition partners touching its peak. Registration of cases/FIR’s between the two sides now plunging the country into a civil war like situation,” Shamim Shaid, a Pakistan political expert told Harici.

Shaid said that Pakistan is ahead with multiple issues like economic crisis, growing violence and terrorism in the region, Taliban empowering in its close neighbor Afghanistan, banned TTP’s (Pakistani Taliban) demands for declaring Tribal districts as free zones, economic crisis and rising rate of poverty and unemployment.

“Pakistan is also ahead with another serious issue of debts, which is now over six hundred billion dollars. The IMF also slaps more conditions on Pakistan by passing each day – and almost Balochistan and Sindh are ahead with flood havoc. In the light of the existing internal and internal crisis Pakistan couldn’t afford political confrontation,” Shaid added.

Pakistan has been going through a political instability, and this is the matter of concern.

Accusations against Khan

“There is an open fight going on between Khan’s party, Tehreek-e-Insafa, and the federal government under Sharif’s administration, and the anti-terrorism charges related to Khan is considered one of the biggest charges in Pakistan,” Rasheed Safi, an Islamabad-based political commentator and columnists told Harici.

Safi said that the current terrorism charges, and the recent report accusing Khan’s party of receiving funds from abroad, which is illegal in Pakistan, has obviously created a new tension for Imran Khan to deal with.

Besides that, Safi said that the Pakistan Federal Investigation Agency has also launched an inquiry against Khan and his party for selling a gifted necklace. Investigation agency (FIA) claimed that Imran Khan had purchased state gifts such as cufflinks, a watch, ring and other valuables at Rs20m and sold them for Rs180m instead of depositing it to the state gift repository.

These are the three big allegations against Imran Khan and to his political party which could have proved a deterrent for him.

“If we look from the perspective of law, Imran Khan and some of key figures in Tehreek-e-Insafa are under immense pressure at the moment. The arrest of Imran Khan after 25 August is also not out of the ordinary,” Safi added.

But the arrest of Khan is not an easy task, Safi said that the government institutions in Pakistan are weak and the officials also fear implication.

Pakistan could anytime lead to a full military rule

But in a bigger picture, Pakistan could anytime lead to a full military rule in the midst of a major political and constitutional crisis, with Khan’s supporters already warned to take over Pakistan if police tried to arrest him.

It is fear that who will stop the public, a population of 220 million people if the political party strays from the path of law and constitution.

Ali Amin Khan Gandapur, Former Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Minister for Revenue and Estate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), said that if Khan is arrested they will take over Islamabad by the power of people, and called on police to stop being part of this political war anymore.

Khan’s supporters taking social media platforms said that the police must first run over them before they can reach Khan.

The Pakistani military establishment is aware of the fact that Khan can still hold mass protests, and could draw millions out to the street, not good at all for a nuclear-armed nation amid an economic crisis, exacerbated by rising global food prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Chinese, Russian troops hold joint exercise targeting cross-border terrorism

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China and Russia have held a joint military exercise focusing on cross-border terrorism, amid growing concern over terrorist attacks in Moscow.

The drill was held on 25 June in a river area near the Heilongjiang Bridge linking Russia’s Blagoveshchensk and China’s Heihe, the Chinese military’s official media outlet PLA Daily reported on Tuesday.

It was the first joint counter-terrorism drill between the neighbouring countries since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

It came just days after terrorist attacks in Russia’s southern region of Dagestan on 23 June, in which at least 22 people were killed in shootings at two synagogues, two Orthodox churches and a police station.

In March, more than 140 people were killed in an attack on a concert hall in Moscow, the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia for almost two decades. The Khorosan branch of ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

According to the PLA Daily, last week’s joint exercise simulated ‘terrorists trying to cross the border’ to launch an attack.

Chinese and Russian troops used aerial reconnaissance, maritime interception and land ambush to intercept and capture the terrorists during the exercise.

The exercise, which focused on improving intelligence sharing and operational coordination, showed the “firm determination” of both militaries to take effective measures to “combat all forms of terrorism, separatism and extremism” while jointly securing border areas, the report said.

The report also said that the two sides discussed further deepening border cooperation.

This is not the first time the two countries have held joint counter-terrorism exercises. In 2019, China’s People’s Armed Police took part in an exercise with the Russian National Guard in Russia.

According to Tass, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed the two countries’ ongoing cooperation in the fight against terrorism, including on multilateral platforms, during a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in April.

Aiming to strengthen law enforcement cooperation

Last week’s joint exercise follows an agreement between Chinese and Russian leaders during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing in May to strengthen cooperation in law enforcement and defence, including by expanding joint training and exercises.

The Chinese and Russian coast guards also signed a memorandum of understanding on maritime law enforcement cooperation in April last year.

In March, China and Russia organised a naval exercise with Iran focusing on anti-piracy efforts. China and Russia also held joint naval and air exercises in the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, in July last year.

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Controversial military operations and ethnic dynamics in Pakistan’s fight against terrorism

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In a recent high-level meeting, the federal government of Pakistan announced its intention to launch a new military operation against terrorist organizations. This decision is aimed at eradicating militancy under the banner of Azm-i-Istehkam. Surprisingly, the military leadership has remained silent on this proposed operation, leaving the advocacy to political figures, notably Defense Minister Khawaja Asif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), a significant coalition partner in the federal government, has maintained a conspicuous silence on the matter. Meanwhile, despite the approval from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, factions within Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Sunni Ittehad Council have openly opposed the operation. This divergence in political opinion highlights the complex dynamics at play in Pakistan’s approach to counter-terrorism.

The opposition from various regional and ethnic parties, including the Pashtun Protection Movement (PTM), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), and the Awami National Party (ANP), stems from deep-seated concerns about the operation’s focus and its implications. Historically, PTI and PkMAP have not been staunchly anti-Taliban. PTI’s leader, Imran Khan, has consistently opposed military actions against Taliban militants, advocating instead for dialogue. Similarly, PkMAP leader Mehmood Khan Achakzai, while ostensibly opposing terrorism, is perceived to have friendly relations with the Taliban, as evidenced by the relative safety of his party members from Taliban attacks.

Significant religious-political entities have complex stances on militancy in Pakistan

The relative safety of certain political groups, like PTM and the National Democratic Movement, from Taliban violence raises questions. Critics argue that this perceived immunity could suggest covert alliances or understandings, casting doubt on the motivations behind their opposition to the military operation.

Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI-F) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), both significant religious-political entities, have complex stances on militancy. JUI-F’s position has been ambiguous since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. In contrast, JI, having reaped substantial benefits from the Afghan war, now finds itself sidelined and is striving to reassert its relevance by attempting to align with nationalist sentiments.

The media and sections of the government, particularly those influenced by Punjabi and Urdu-speaking elites, have often portrayed the Taliban as predominantly Pashtun. This narrative has led to the proposed military operation being focused on Pashtun-majority areas, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif’s statement that the operation will target these regions reinforces this perception.

Pashtun-dominated regions reject the notion that terrorism is a Pashtun phenomenon

However, leaders from Pashtun-dominated regions, like Khan Muhammad Wazir of the ANP, reject the notion that terrorism is a Pashtun phenomenon. Wazir points to the involvement of non-Pashtun militants in numerous terror attacks across Pakistan. He highlights the role of Punjabi militants in groups like the Punjabi Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, who have orchestrated some of the deadliest attacks in recent years. Wazir’s argument underscores the ethnic diversity of militant groups in Pakistan, challenging the stereotype of the Pashtun terrorist.

Wazir’s emotional plea for an operation starting in Punjab, rather than Pashtun areas, aims to shift the focus to the diverse origins of militancy. He names several key figures from Punjab involved in terrorist activities, such as Tariq Lahori of Daesh and Maulana Qasmi of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar. By highlighting these figures, Wazir seeks to demonstrate that terrorism in Pakistan is not confined to any single ethnic group.

Doubt on the narration of the proposed military operation “Azm-i-Istekham”

The insistence on a military operation in Pashtun regions, driven by a media narrative dominated by Punjabi and Urdu-speaking elites, risks alienating the Pashtun community. Wazir’s call for international intervention by entities like China, the United States, Russia, the United Nations, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) underscores the severity of this perceived ethnic targeting. If the government and media continue to frame terrorism as a predominantly Pashtun issue, it may lead to increased ethnic tensions and further marginalize the Pashtun population.

The proposed military operation “Azm-i-Istehkam” and the political dynamics surrounding it reveal deep-seated ethnic and regional tensions within Pakistan. While the operation aims to eradicate terrorism, its focus on Pashtun areas risks reinforcing harmful stereotypes and overlooking the broader ethnic diversity of militant groups. A more equitable approach, recognizing the involvement of non-Pashtun militants and addressing the root causes of militancy across all regions, is crucial for fostering national unity and effectively combating terrorism. Only through such an inclusive strategy can Pakistan hope to achieve lasting peace and stability.

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Huawei Harmony aims to end China’s reliance on Windows and Android

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While Chinese tech giant Huawei’s recent smartphone launches have been closely watched for signs of progress in China’s chip supply chain, the company has also developed expertise in sectors vital to Beijing’s vision of technological self-sufficiency, from operating systems to car software.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the CPC Politburo last year that China must fight hard to localise operating systems and other technologies “as soon as possible” as the US restricts exports of advanced chips and other components.

OpenHarmony, developed by Huawei, is widely promoted in China as the “national operating system”.

“This strategic move is likely to erode the market share of Western operating systems such as Android and Windows in China as local products gain traction,” Sunny Cheung, an associate fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a US defence policy group, told Reuters.

In the first quarter of 2024, Huawei’s own version of the HarmonyOS operating system overtook Apple’s iOS to become the second best-selling mobile operating system in China after Android, according to research firm Counterpoint. It has not yet been released on smartphones outside China.

“Harmony has created a strong core operating system for the future of China’s devices,” Richard Yu, president of Huawei’s consumer business group, said at the opening of a developer conference last week.

Self-sufficiency

Huawei first introduced Harmony in August 2019, three months after Washington imposed trade restrictions over alleged security concerns. Huawei denies that its equipment poses a risk.

Since then, China has stepped up its self-sufficiency efforts, pulling out of the main code-sharing centre Github and supporting a local version, Gitee.

China banned the use of Windows on government computers in 2014 and now uses mostly Linux-based operating systems.

Microsoft derives only 1.5 per cent of its revenue from China, its chief executive said this month.

Originally built on an open-source Android system, Huawei this year released the first “pure” version of HarmonyOS, which no longer supports Android-based apps, further separating China’s app ecosystem from the rest of the world.

Huawei said in its 2023 annual report that OpenHarmony was the fastest-growing open source operating system for smart devices last year, with more than 70 organisations contributing to it and more than 460 hardware and software products produced in the financial, education, aerospace and industrial sectors.

Visited by Reuters, Charlie Cheng, deputy director of the Harmony Ecosystem Innovation Centre, said the aim of making it open-source was to replicate Android’s success in eliminating licensing costs for users and provide companies with a customisable springboard for their own products.

“Harmony will definitely become a mainstream operating system and give the world a new choice of operating systems besides iOS and Android,” he said.

Google, Apple and Microsoft did not respond to requests for comment.

China’s previous efforts to build large open source projects have struggled to gain traction among developers, but Huawei’s growing smartphone market share and extra work to develop a broader ecosystem gives Harmony an edge, analysts said.

Huawei’s Yu said this month that more than 900 million devices, including smartphones, watches and car systems, were running HarmonyOS and that 2.4 million developers were coding in the ecosystem.

“OpenHarmony will need more time and iterations for these developers to feel more confident about working with OpenHarmony,” Emma Xu, an analyst at research firm Canalys, told Reuters, adding: “But the reputation, behaviour and trust that HarmonyOS has achieved will certainly have a positive impact.”

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