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Stoltenberg on the Arctic: Strategic for NATO

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Canada and Canadian Arctic with an agenda for Ukraine, climate change, and Arctic defence. The tour is particularly noteworthy as it represents the first visit by a NATO secretary general to the Canadian Arctic since NATO was founded in 1949.

Canada, the second largest border state in the region after Russia, has long opposed NATO involvement in the Arctic, which included even vetoing a statement on the Alliance’s role in the Arctic during a major summit in 2009. There are various opinions on the reasons why. There are those who are concerned about militarizing the Arctic and provoking Russia, as well as those who do not want non-North Alliance members such as Italy and Spain to have a say in the Arctic. But Canada wants to preserve its essentially exclusive economic territory. Moreover, the sea ice has been melting in the Northwest passage through Canadian Arctic due to climate change, and it will potentially be fully open and navigable by 2040. This means changes in routes and marine traffic in international waters. There are those who do not want to share this advantage, as well as those who argue that this will create new security requirements and thus increase the need for the Alliance.

However, the US is trying to completely change Canada’s attitude by using the Ukrainian war and the existence of Russia and China as an excuse. 

Andrea Charron, an expert on North American security at the University of Manitoba, spoke to Canadian press about Stoltenberg’s visit: “It’s more of a sign of continued solidarity between NATO’s members as opposed to an actual signal that they are opening the door to NATO exercises in the Canadian Arctic.”

For some, the visit represents an easing of past reluctance to work with NATO on the Arctic.

NATO seeks to improve its defence against China and Russia in North America and expand its position in the Arctic. Finland and Sweden’s integration into NATO is also important in the Arctic context.

‘Russia and China Threats’

Just before his visit to Canada, the NATO Secretary General wrote an article underlining the Alliance’s Arctic defence policy.

Stoltenberg underlined the region’s strategic importance for Euro-Atlantic security and noted that the shortest path to North America for Russian missiles would be over the North Pole.

Stoltenberg stressed that the North Pole will be rapidly ice-free due to climate change, and this will unlock opportunities for shipping routes, natural resources, and economic development, also pointed out Russia and China for increasing the risk of tension.

Stoltenberg note that Russia has significantly increased its military activities in recent years and set up a new Arctic Command, describing Russia’s activities as a “strategic challenge” to the Alliance.

China has declared itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and “is expanding its reach by planning a “Polar Silk Road” linking Beijing to Europe via the Arctic, it is rapidly strengthening its navy, with plans to build the world’s biggest icebreaker vessel. China is also investing tens of billions of dollars in energy, infrastructure and research projects in the region” told the NATO Secretary General.

“Earlier this year, Beijing and Moscow pledged to intensify practical co-operation in the Arctic, as part of a deepening strategic partnership that challenges our values and interests,” Stoltenberg said, citing Beijing and Moscow’s collaboration.

‘Finland and Sweden’s membership is critical for the region’

Describing the Arctic as the “the gateway to the North Atlantic, hosting vital trade, transport and communication links between North America and Europe” Stoltenberg said: “Once Finland and Sweden join the Alliance, seven out of the eight Arctic states (Russia, the United States, Denmark, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland) will be members of NATO. Finland and Sweden’s membership will significantly enhance our posture in the High North and our ability to reinforce our Baltic Allies.”

Arctic geopolitics appears to be at the heart of Sweden’s and Finland’s insistence on NATO membership.

Stoltenberg signs that NATO will secure and militarize the Arctic region, citing it as one of the key areas of competition with China and Russia. NATO, which declared China and Russia a threat at the ‘historic summit’ in Madrid, considers the cooperation of both countries a threat to their interests. In his article, Stoltenberg highlights Beijing-Moscow cooperation in the Arctic, presenting the Alliance to North America as a security need for the Arctic.

Time will tell whether Canada, which has so far opposed the Arctic becoming a NATO agenda, will resist this further after NATO Secretary General’s visit.

Geopolitics of the Arctic

Increasing interest in the Arctic basin stems from the potential for new hydrocarbon and mineral reserves, sea transport routes and fishing in the region soon as glaciers melt due to climate change.

The United States, which stands out with its 48 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 90 billion barrels of oil reserves, also sees the region as geostrategic in terms of surrounding Russia. By contrast, a new maritime doctrine signed by Putin explicitly challenges Russia being surrounded through the Arctic Ocean. Pointing out that the Arctic waters are a concern of Russia’s national interests in the new doctrine, Putin emphasized that “We will ensure their [Arctic waters] protection firmly and by all means”. The northern route began to gain importance as part of Beijing’s “New Silk Road” project. Because the opening of the Arctic due to melting glaciers will dramatically shorten the distance between Asia and Europe and create new commercial opportunities for China.

With its location and energy resources, the Arctic region is likely to become more prominent as one of the new areas of competition between NATO and Russia-China forces.

AMERICA

Expected strike begins in the US: Thousands of dockworkers walk off the job

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Thousands of unionised dockworkers at 14 major ports from Maine to Texas went on strike after midnight on Tuesday after failing to reach agreement on a new contract.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), which organised the first East Coast port strike since 1977, said in a statement on Facebook early Tuesday that it ‘shut down’ the ports at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday as workers ‘began forming picket lines at waterfront facilities on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts’.

The union said the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) rejected its final offer on Monday, ‘setting the stage for the first coast-wide ILA strike in nearly 50 years’.

The USMX initiated this strike when it decided not to give up its belief that foreign-owned ocean carriers can make billions of dollars in profits in U.S. ports and not compensate American ILA dockworkers who performed the work that made them a fortune,’ said union president Harold Daggett.

Daggett added that ILA members were prepared to ‘fight as long as it takes, stay on strike as long as it takes’ to win the wages and protection from automation they deserve.

USMX said in an online statement on Monday night that it had ‘discussed counter-proposals on wages’ ahead of the strike.

Our proposal would increase wages by about 50 per cent, triple employer contributions to employee pension plans, strengthen our healthcare options and maintain existing language on automation and semi-automation,’ the statement said.

The strike appears to have put President Joe Biden in a difficult position. Under the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act, the president has the power to intervene to prevent or end a strike and impose an 80-day cooling-off period.

But this is not the kind of move that Biden, who claims to be the ‘most pro-worker’ president in history, can make without serious backlash from unions and their supporters.

On Monday afternoon, the US Chamber of Commerce called on the president to intervene to stop the strike.

A White House official said late Monday that administration officials, including chief of staff Jeff Zients, labour secretary Julie Su and economic adviser Lael Brainard, have been in regular contact with both sides to keep negotiations moving forward.

In the case of the rail workers, the White House has previously blocked workers from striking ahead of the holiday and faced a backlash from the labour community.

JPMorgan estimates that the daily cost to the economy of a strike would be $3.8-4.5 billion. The Conference Board, on the other hand, takes a more conservative approach and puts the cost to the economy of a week-long strike at $3.7 billion.

The strike will affect around 45,000 workers, but will also have a knock-on effect on other jobs, including warehousing and transport.

Oxford Economics estimates that up to 105,000 more workers could be temporarily unemployed.

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AMERICA

US investigates Germany’s SAP and Carahsoft for ‘price fixing’

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German software developer SAP, product vendor Carahsoft Technology and other companies are being investigated by US authorities for a decade-long ‘conspiracy to overcharge government agencies’.

Since at least 2022, Justice Department lawyers have been investigating whether SAP, the giant maker of accounting, human resources, supply chain and other business software used worldwide, illegally conspired with Carahsoft to fix prices on sales to the US military and other parts of the government, Bloomberg reported, citing federal court records in Baltimore.

The investigation, which has not been made public, poses a legal risk to the leading technology supplier to the US government and Germany’s most valuable company.

The investigation also extends to powerful software vendor Carahsoft, whose offices in Virginia were raided by FBI agents and military investigators on Tuesday.

Company spokeswoman Mary Lange described the raid as ‘an investigation into a company with which Carahsoft has done business in the past’. It is not clear whether the search is related to the SAP investigation. Lange and other Carahsoft representatives declined to answer detailed questions.

According to court records, the long-running investigation focuses on companies that may have rigged the market for more than $2 billion in SAP technology purchased by the US government since 2014.

Records show that prosecutors are also investigating the role of other software vendors and a unit of Accenture, a giant management and technology consulting firm. Many investigations have ended without formal charges.

Accenture spokesman Peter Soh said the subsidiary, Accenture Federal Services LLC, ‘has responded to an administrative subpoena and is cooperating with the Department of Justice’.

The Justice Department classifies bid-rigging as a form of fraud that involves an agreement between competitors on who will be the winning bidder.

It is unclear exactly when prosecutors began investigating the relationship between Walldorf, Germany-based SAP and Reston, Virginia-based Carahsoft.

But in June 2022, prosecutors sent Carahsoft a request to turn over documents and provide information about possible violations of the False Claims Act.

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AMERICA

Big profits for US banks: Fed’s high interest rates generated $1.1 trillion

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An analysis of official data by the Financial Times (FT) has revealed that US banks have benefited to the tune of $1 trillion from the Fed’s two and a half years of high interest rates.

An analysis of data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) showed that lenders earned higher returns on their deposits with the Fed, but kept interest rates lower for many savers.

The support provided to more than 4,000 US banks helped boost profit margins. While rates on some savings accounts were raised in line with the Fed’s target of more than 5%, the vast majority of depositors, especially those at the largest banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, received much less.

At the end of the second quarter, the average US bank was paying depositors just 2.2 per cent a year, according to regulatory data, which includes accounts that pay no interest at all. That is higher than the 0.2 per cent they paid two years ago, but much lower than the 5.5 per cent Fed overnight rate that banks can charge.

According to the data, the annual cost of holding deposits at JPMorgan and Bank of America is 1.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively. The FT calculates that these lower payments to depositors have meant $1.1 trillion in excess interest income for the banks.

Banks cut deposit rates before Fed

When the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by half a percentage point this week, some US banks rushed to pass the cuts on to depositors to boost profits.

Hours before the Fed’s rate cut last Wednesday, Citi told employees at its bank, which typically offers preferential rates to wealthy clients, that if the US central bank cut rates by half a percentage point, the bank would also cut its rate on accounts paying 5 per cent or more, according to a person familiar with the matter.

JPMorgan also said savings rates for clients with $10 million or more in cash would be cut by 50 basis points and that future cuts would be in line with the Fed’s actions.

Chris McGratty, head of US bank research at KBW, said banks would ‘absolutely’ be able to cut deposit costs as a result of the Fed’s rate cut, adding: ‘I think the level of aggressiveness will vary from bank to bank.

JPMorgan said it aims to ‘offer a fair and competitive rate’. Citi and Bank of America declined to comment.

Flight from small and medium-sized banks favours the big ones

Banks seem to be slow to raise the interest rates they offer on deposits and savings accounts, and fast to cut them.

When the Fed began tightening monetary policy in March 2022, many analysts predicted that competition from new financial technology companies and the increasing ease with which consumers carry cash would force banks to give depositors a greater share of higher rates.

But the FT’s calculations show that banks have been able to retain most of the gains, albeit slightly less than in previous Fed tightening cycles.

The collapse of some banks, including Silicon Valley Bank in early 2023, forced many mid-sized and smaller banks to raise rates to prevent depositors from fleeing. Larger banks saw an increase in cash flow during the flight of depositors from these small and mid-sized banks, allowing them to postpone the need to adjust to higher interest rates.

According to FT calculations based on the latest available data, US banks received about two-thirds of the revenue from the Fed’s higher rates from March 2022 to the middle of this year.

Banks paid out about $600bn in interest to depositors. In the period from early 2016 to early 2019, when the Fed last raised rates, US banks earned 77 percent of the revenue.

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