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War in Ukraine revives global arms industry

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Russia-Ukraine war continues to make global arms industry giants earn money, especially the U.S. and Europe. Strong arms companies, particularly in Europe, aim to increase their production capacity to be able to keep up with the orders.

The famous British company BAE Systems, for example, decided to restart the discontinued production of M777 howitzer, which had succeeded in the war. According to the BAE, Central European countries are interested in M777. The company’s vice president, Mark Signorelli, added that they need order of at least 150 new M777 to start production again.

U.S. military approval is expected to start reproduction. New orders are also coming in for American HIMARS and Anglo-Swedish co-made NLAW portable anti-tank missiles.

U.S. based usual suspects Raytheon Technologies, Lockheed Martin and L3Harris Technologies are also winners of the war. L3Harris received an order worth $200 million to be sent to Ukraine. Raytheon has started using obsolete parts from the old Stingers and has called his retired staff back into office to increase production. Lockheed Martin doubled the production of Javelin anti-tank missiles and increased the production of HIMARS rocket launchers and GMLRS missiles by 60 per cent.

The war ‘relieves’ German Industry

Struggling German industry due to the cutting of cheap Russian gas, has been given a consolation called war. Germany’s automotive and defence company and one of Europe’s leading arms manufacturers Rheinmetall AG, acquired the Spanish explosive manufacturing company Expal for 1.2 billion euros. Armin Papperger, CEO of the company, said the customers will sign contracts with companies who have the capacity. According to Rheinmetall, Expal expected sales of around 400 million euros in 2023.

Rheinmetall shares have gained 115 per cent since January 1st. The company announced that it has increased tank ammunition manufacturing from 70,000 to 140,000 in one year. Rheinmetall, which also increased its cannon production from 70,000 to 110,000, also doubled its mortar production capacity. Papperger noted that they increased their potential medium-calibre ball production capacity from 1.2 million to 2.2 million annually and increased their capacity to produce military trucks from 2,500 to 4,000.

Rohde & Schwarz, who developed German military communication equipment other than Rheinmetall, Traton of Volkswagen, who developed military vehicles together with Rheinmetall, and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW), the manufacturer of Leopard 2 tanks, are also struggling to fulfil orders.

The German government had recently ordered 100 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer to be sent to Ukraine. KMW will be responsible for their production. The contract is said to be worth 1.7 billion euros. These howitzers have recently become a hot topic in the German media, claiming that they are the subject of a complaint in Ukraine because of their maintenance.

KNDS, the joint venture between KMW and France’s Nexter says governments should shape new arms contracts. KNDS CEO Frank Haun underlines that they cannot risk increasing capacity with just speeches and announcements.

The German government’s rearmament programme is also an incentive for its struggling economy. Carl Jonasson, CEO of Snigel Design, a Swedish maker of military gear, did not hide the fact that he was surprised by the size of the order they received from Germany in May.

Eastern and Central Europe find new export markets

In addition to German armament manufacturers, the war industry of the former Warsaw Pact countries has also achieved a significant market with the Ukrainian war.

Sebastian Chwalek, CEO of PGZ, the state-owned weapons and ammo consortium in Poland, said they have an important opportunity to enter new markets and increase export revenues in the coming years. The PGZ consortium controls over 50 companies, from weapons to shipping.

PGZ plans to invest 1.75 billion euros in the next decade, Chwalek told Reuters. That’s more than double its pre-war investment plan. The new production facilities will be built away from the border with Russia’s ally Belarus for security reasons, he said.

In 2023, Chwalek announced that they had reached the capacity to produce 1000 pieces of Piorun MANPAD systems. This figure was 600 in 2022 and 300 to 350 in previous years. The company’s pre-war 2022 revenue target was 1.43 billion euros. With the new situation, it is thought that this income will be much higher at the end of the year.

Czechia is also one of the countries that put the arms industry at the service of war in Ukraine. Prague has sold 2 billion euros of weapons and equipment to Kyiv, Czech Deputy Defence Minister Tomas Kopecny told Reuters. Czechia (then Czechoslovakia), the largest weapons producer after the USSR during the socialist bloc period, has realized its highest arms export since 1989.

David Hac, chief executive of Czech STV Group, the largest ammunition producer in Czechia, said that they would create new production lines for small-calibre ammunition and that they were considering expanding its large-calibre capability. Considering the tight labour market, Hajj added, they are trying to get new workers from a slowing automotive industry.

Another Czech war giant, the Czechoslovak Group, nearly doubled its revenues in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year. The Group’s spokesman, Andrej Cirtek, said their sales to the Ukrainian army multiplied after the war in Ukraine started.

Surprise attack from South Korea

South Korea, which has become the world’s fourth largest arms exporter, is also one of the winners of the Ukrainian war. The K2 tanks developed by ROTEM, an affiliate of the Hyundai-Kia Automotive Group, are already targeted by many countries from Mexico to Qatar.

Although Seoul has declared that it will not provide lethal aid to Ukraine directly, it is reported that the United States wants to buy ammunition from Korea to send to Ukraine. When details of the deal surfaced in the Wall Street Journal, the South Korean Defence Ministry insisted that they believed the U.S. was the ammunition’s end user.

Despite all these statements, South Korea’s relation with the Ukrainian war is not new. Last September, South Korea inked the largest arms agreement with Poland in its history to supply 1,000 K2 tanks, more than 600 Hanwha K9 self-propelled howitzers and dozens of combat aircraft to Warsaw. This deal will help Poland to send more weapons to Ukraine.

Customers of Hanwha K9 howitzers include Finland, India, Norway, Estonia, Australia, Egypt, and Turkey.

Limits of the arms industry

Under threat of deindustrialisation, the consolation that Europe found in war has its limits. The defence industry’s renaissance may begin to descend again due to the rising cost of materials and energy and dependence on imports from third countries.

Most of the raw materials needed to produce military products are not mined or are mined in limited amounts in EU countries, Jiří Hynek, head of the Association for Weapons and Defence Industry of the Czech Republic, told EURACTIV. Hynek underlined that most of the crucial materials are imported from Asian and African countries.

The materials that are in short supply on the market today are: all packaging materials, many chemicals but also the cellulose required for manufacturing gunpowder, and synthetic rubber, whose prices are astronomical, Hynek said. The latest material is used for ballistic resistant vests, and the EU is dependent on Asia, especially China, for this substance.

The price of steel has gone from 700 euros per tonne to 3500 euros, while aluminium has risen from 5 euros per kilo to 15 euros, according to Paolo Può, president of the Italian military shipbuilder Cantiere Navale Vittoria. Noting that most of their contracts are signed with the state, Può added that they are asking the government for intervention in the sector.

Rheinmetall also announced that they are stockpiling raw materials. The German arms manufacturer said that they purchased aluminium and important plastics in the first place, adding that they also obtained semiconductors to avoid supply problems in the medium term. The company also mentioned they have significantly increased working capital this year.

In France, on the other hand, the war industry has been experiencing production difficulties since before the Ukrainian war due to the semiconductor and chip problems.

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Chinese satellite company to challenge Musk’s Starlink in Brazil

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A Chinese state-backed company is set to launch a satellite internet service in Brazil, aiming to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Spacesail, a developer of high-speed internet services via satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), made the announcement during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Brazil. The visit marked the signing of an expanded partnership with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

This development follows ongoing tensions between Musk, owner of SpaceX and its Starlink subsidiary, and Brazilian authorities over allegations of misinformation on his X social media network.

According to Chinese state media, Spacesail has partnered with Brazil’s state-owned Telebrás to deliver satellite communications and broadband internet to underserved areas.

A spokesperson for the Brazilian communications ministry stated that the companies would assess demand in regions lacking fiber-optic infrastructure, with plans to launch the service by 2026.

“Spacesail is committed to being Brazil’s long-term partner,” CEO Jie Zheng told reporters on Tuesday.

Musk-Lula tensions highlight Starlink’s market dominance

Brazil is actively encouraging competitors to Starlink, which controls nearly 50% of the satellite internet market in Latin America.

Earlier this year, Musk faced legal challenges in Brazil after refusing to comply with court orders to remove accounts allegedly promoting extremist content on X. This led to a temporary ban on the platform and fines for Starlink, further straining Musk’s relationship with Brazil’s left-wing government.

Tensions resurfaced recently when Brazil’s First Lady, Rosângela Lula da Silva, addressed Musk during an event on social media regulation.

Spacesail’s announcement aligns with concerns over waning U.S. influence in South America, often regarded as Washington’s “backyard.”

During his diplomatic tour, Xi Jinping attended the opening of a Chinese-built mega-port in Peru before traveling to Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit. In Brasília, he and Lula upgraded their bilateral relationship to a “Sino-Brazilian community with a shared future”, emphasizing a fairer, more sustainable world.

The two leaders signed 37 agreements spanning agriculture, trade, infrastructure, technology, and industry. However, Brazil declined to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signaling confidence in securing Chinese investments without full membership.

Operating under the name Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, Spacesail plans to accelerate satellite deployment with a target of 15,000 LEO satellites by 2030. The company launched its first rounds of satellites in August and October this year, showcasing its rapid growth and potential to disrupt the market.

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China refuses to meet with U.S. Defence Secretary

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China has reportedly refused to meet with the United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus in Laos this week.

According to CNN, Austin sought a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, during the event as part of ongoing efforts to maintain military communication channels between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. However, a senior defence official traveling with Austin in Laos revealed that China rejected the offer, citing the recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan as a key factor.

Three weeks ago, the United States approved a $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which included the provision of advanced surface-to-air missiles—marking the first time Taiwan has received such systems. China condemned the sale and vowed to take “resolute countermeasures” to protect its sovereignty.

China’s decision to decline the meeting in Laos follows just days after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held what the U.S. described as a “cordial and constructive” meeting in San Francisco. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized that the dialogue was “wide-ranging” and not focused on mediating between Beijing and the incoming U.S. administration.

Relations between the two nations have remained strained since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, which prompted China to sever multiple lines of communication with the United States, including those related to military and climate cooperation. While military-to-military communication had recently resumed following the Biden-Xi meeting, this latest refusal highlights continued tensions in U.S.-China relations.

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G20 calls for more aid for Gaza, two-state solution and peace in Ukraine

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The leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies issued a joint statement on Monday calling for a global deal to fight hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The joint statement was approved by members of the group, but not unanimously. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and reforms to the United Nations Security Council to allow it to expand beyond its current five permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting, which officially ends on Wednesday, experts doubted that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would be able to persuade the assembled leaders to reach an agreement at a meeting fraught with uncertainty over the new administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and heightened global tensions due to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Argentina objected to some language in early drafts and was the only country not to endorse the entire document.

Still, the fact that a joint statement was issued was a ‘success’ for Lula.

The declaration condemned wars and called for peace, but did not condemn any crimes.

Gaza and Ukraine on the agenda

Referring to the ‘catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon’, the declaration stressed the need to increase humanitarian aid and better protect civilians.

“We reaffirm the Palestinian right to self-determination and reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of a two-state solution, with Israel and the state of Palestine living side by side in peace,” it said.

Israeli attacks have so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza and more than 3,500 in Lebanon, according to local health officials.

Biden, who met with G20 leaders before the statement was issued, suggested that ‘Hamas is solely responsible for the war’ and called on other leaders to ‘increase pressure on Hamas’ to accept a ceasefire agreement.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range U.S. missiles, allowing it to strike Russia, was also on the agenda for the meeting.

“The United States strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. I think everyone around this table should do the same,” Biden said at the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting, sending Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov instead. The G20 statement highlighted the ‘humanitarian suffering in Ukraine’ and called for peace, without mentioning Russia.

Billionaire tax and the fight against hunger

The statement called for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula also supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people worldwide, including about 100 in Latin America.

The declaration also included a clause promoting gender equality.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration but had problems with references to the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Far-right President Javier Milei described the agenda as a ‘supranational programme of a socialist nature’. He also objected to calls to regulate hate speech on social media, which Milei said violated national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Much of the declaration focuses on Lula’s priority of eradicating hunger.

The Brazilian government stressed that Lula’s launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty on Monday was at least as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 countries had signed the plan, the Brazilian government said. The plan is also supported by organisations such as the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Call for United Nations reform

Leaders have pledged to work for ‘transformative reform’ of the UN Security Council to ‘adapt it to the realities and demands of the 21st century, making it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable’.

Nearly eighty years after the founding of the United Nations, almost all countries agree that the Security Council needs to be expanded to reflect the world of the 21st century and to include more voices. The main dilemma and the biggest disagreement are how to do this. The G20 statement did not answer this question.

“We call for an expanded composition of the Security Council that improves the representation of underrepresented and under-represented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

Shortly before the UN summit in September, the United States announced its support for two new non-permanent seats for African countries and a first non-permanent seat for small island developing states. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – prefer each other’s proposals for permanent seats. The larger Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries, including Pakistan, Italy, Turkey and Mexico, wants additional non-permanent seats for longer terms.

Xi backs calls for reform and equality

Speaking at the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the interests of the so-called global south, which includes emerging economies, and called for reform of international institutions and consensus on how to achieve parity in finance, trade, digital technology, and the environment.

The Chinese leader said artificial intelligence should not be ‘a game of rich countries and the rich’ and stressed the need to improve digital governance for inclusive economic globalization.

Xi reiterated host Brazil’s call for greater economic equality, including poverty eradication and reform of institutions such as global creditors for developing countries.

Xi called for reform of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism to return to normal operation “as soon as possible”. The mechanism remains in limbo as the U.S. has blocked appointments to the Appellate Body over concerns of judicial activism.

China had filed a dispute settlement case at the WTO after the European Union imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last month.

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