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Riots in France: Consequences and possibilities

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French President Emmanuel Macron met with 220 elected mayors earlier this week. Some mayors, especially those on the right, felt that Paris had failed to quell the protests that erupted after the killing of Nahel, a 17-year-old Algerian teenager, by the police. According to the Interior Ministry, a total of 99 town halls were attacked during the demonstrations. David Lisnard, President of the Association of French Mayors (AMF), used the term ‘urban riot’ and said that this would happen again in the years to come, adding: “That requires immediate action to restore order, of course, and regal authority, which is what I’m telling you, and then, at the same time, a profound effort, totally different from what has been done for the last thirty years.”

It was also at this meeting that Macron floated the idea of restricting social media. “When things get out of hand, it may be necessary to regulate or cut off access [to social media],” the French president said. The Interior Ministry was forced to call the widespread rumors that France would cut the internet ‘fake news’, arguing that it was ‘illegal’ in France. But the genie was clearly out of the bottle. Starting his political career as a Trotskyist in the 1970s, then joined the Socialist Party for a while, and was eventually elected mayor of Béziers in 2014 with the support of the National Front, which was once led by Jean-Marie Le Pen, and supported Marine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential elections, Robert Ménard was publicizing Macron’s remarks at the meeting: The President had proposed cutting off access to social media platforms such as Snapchat, TikTok and Instagram.

Is the ‘escalating violence’ a new phenomenon?

The French state’s solution to the attacks on town halls and some mayors during the riots is to extend the shield of central government to local authorities. Dominique Faure, the minister responsible for local and regional government, announced that the government will allocate 5 million euros to better protect local elected officials, especially mayors. In an interview with Le Monde, Faure outlined his plan to support local elected officials, saying twelve measures would be taken, including funding for better physical and legal protections, as well as psychological support for mayors.

These measures include strengthening the relationship between local authorities and prosecutors, and increasing legal and financial protection for local authorities. A law will be presented to the French parliament in the fall that will create an ‘aggravated’ charge for those found guilty of harassing local elected officials and allow judges to give them harsher sentences, the minister added.

The home of Vincent Jeanbrun, mayor of the Paris suburb of L’Häy-les-Roses, was targeted during the demonstrations. This is one of the main justifications for increasing centralized control over local authorities. But the ‘increased violence’ predates the Nahel rebellion. The mayor of Saint-Brevin-les-Pins, Yannick Morez, ended his term early after his house was set on fire. Morez, who became the target of right-wing protests over a planned refugee center in his town, resigned on May 9. The reason for his resignation was the fire in front of his house by right-wing groups organizing a protest. In his resignation letter, Morez pointed out that he made this decision especially because of the burning of his house and the lack of state support.

Mainstreaming right, mainstream leaning to right

This is why the use of both justified and blind violence in the recent wave of riots led by young people of immigrant origin by the French right, particularly the National Rally, is far from being ‘sincere’. Violence in France did not start on June 28 and with migrants, and it will not be its only source in the future. For example, shortly before Nahel’s murder, on June 14, 19-year-old Guinean migrant Alhoussein Camara was shot dead in the chest by police officers in the southwestern French town of Angoulême on his way to work. Camara’s lawyers wonder why the outcry over Nahel has not been directed against the Guinean migrant. Why there was silence on the murder of this young warehouse worker does not matter now. What matters is that the treatment of African migrants has not changed much, despite the existence of examples of non-counter-violence.

However, in France and Europe in general, the mainstreaming of the ‘populist’ backlash against the austerity measures introduced in the wake of the Eurozone crisis has entered a new phase. The reverse is also true; in the last decade, the political spectrum known as the ‘center’ in Europe has been rapidly moving towards elements to its right. With the Macron administration being accused by Marine Le Pen and her party of ‘failing to prevent a handful of thugs’, and the parliamentary left, particularly the French Communist Party (PCF), ‘distancing itself from violence’ and at times even confronting it, the National Rally is increasingly coming to the fore as the representative of ‘law and order’.

The migrant issue is of course an important part of this picture, but only a part. Other elements of the picture include the fact that France, as an imperialist power in decline and unable to stop its decline, is unable to keep up with its economic rival Germany. French capital feels that it has become too inefficient in the face of its German ‘rival’; it still finds labor costs too high; its official weekly working hours are almost the lowest in the EU; it is struggling to find the skilled labor needed for its ‘technological breakthrough’ (it still hasn’t found it); and militant trade unionism of one dimension or another continues to plague it.

A report published in 2019 by the National Productivity Council summarizes the fascic circle in which the French system finds itself. It notes that there is a huge skills gap among school leavers, with high performers well above the European average, but low performers (overwhelmingly from less affluent families) performing significantly worse than the EU and OECD averages. Another striking data point is that labor productivity, which was actually neck and neck with Germany for a long time, started to fall in the 1990s. According to the report, “the skills of the French labor force are below the OECD average and show no sign of improving.”

Issues such as pension reform, the immigration problem and the rise of the right must be seen in the context of this ‘French decline’. While Germany picks and chooses ‘skilled migrant labor’, the French right-wing sees their country as ‘rubbish’. It is because of these needs that Le Pen’s party does not want to abolish immigration altogether, but to reduce its annual quota. This includes denying dual citizenship to those living in former French colonies. Labor migration from Africa to France is not feasible.

In this context, the National Rally’s demands to increase the budget of the Ministry of Justice, to build new prisons, to protect the ‘right of self-defense’ of the police, and to expand the powers of the police to wiretap and monitor internet communications point to a desire for a reorganization that is not limited to the immigration issue. The legal equivalent of this is likely to be ‘colonial law’ with the old-fashioned native-colonial distinction.

New mercantilism’s march to power

The main issue here is the international situation. In France, the chances are improving for the National Rally, which stands out as the greatest defender of ‘law and order’. This must be accompanied by a convincing economic program.

This program is rising in the United States under the name of ‘Bidenomics’. The re-industrialization of France, the increase in import tariffs to protect French producers, interest rate cuts for SMEs, and lower taxes, all of which are included in the National Rally’s program, indicate that the new mercantilist idea, which has increased its prestige, has matured enough to fall from the tree in France. Considering that more than 60 percent of the country’s trade comes from within the EU, a simple ‘autarkic’ approach will not work, and Le Pen has no such plan beyond ‘protectionism’. In this context, we should point out that Macron’s claim of ‘strategic autonomy of Europe’, which is questionable how much he has thought about it, clears the stones in front of the National Rally, which proposes a ‘European National Federation’.

Moreover, we should remind that the National Rally is not alone in this. Throughout the uprisings, officials of Les Républicains (LR), the party founded by Nicolas Sarkozy, pushed the ethno-nationalist throttle. For example, Bruno Retailleau, leader of LR’s Senate faction, told Franceinfo radio on July 5: “[The rioters] are French, of course, but they are French because of their identity. Unfortunately, in the second, third generation, there is a regression towards ethnicity,” Bruno Retailleau, leader of the Senate group, told Franceinfo radio on July 2. The ‘center’ right is allegedly doing this to avoid losing voters to Le Pen. But this is an overly simplistic conclusion. The right-wingization of the mainstream or the ‘center’ paves the way for the right.

Indeed, within days of describing the rebels as ‘barbarians’, LR President Eric Ciotti proposed security and anti-immigration measures. His catalog of measures bore a striking resemblance to Le Pen’s: Sharply increasing prison capacity, lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16, abolishing benefits for the parents of criminals and stripping criminals with dual nationality of their French citizenship.

The ‘Melonization’ of Le Pen

What remains is the ‘Melonization’ of Le Pen. Clearly, this requires a Europe-wide fiction. The 2024 European Parliament elections are crucial in this regard. Whether the contacts between the Italian Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy (ID) will result in an alliance will give an idea of the course of events. The consequences of the ‘center’ right European People’s Party (EPP) closing the door to ID, forced by the German Christian Democrats, will also become clear.

We have to recognize that the French revolt and its implications, especially for Germany, are critical for the future of the right in Europe. The economic politics of the US and the prospect of economic convergence between Democrats and Republicans will fuel the rise of the new mercantilist-protectionist right in Europe. The revolt of the plebs without a program could open the gates of hell.

EUROPE

Tensions rise again between Serbia and Kosovo

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Serbian President Alexandar Vučić responded in an interview with POLITICO after Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti accused him of ‘irrationality’, ‘desperation’ and leading an ‘aggressive campaign for new conflicts’.

“If irrationality and aggression are going to lead to democratic elections… OK, thank you very much,” Vučić said.

The new war of words follows the Serbian leader’s call this week for new local elections in northern Kosovo to defuse tensions that flared in 2023 when the Serb community largely boycotted the vote.

Ethnic Serbs boycotted the local elections to express their discontent with Pristina. Tensions rose when ethnic Albanian candidates, representing just over 3 per cent of the electorate, won the elections.

The crisis erupted when Kurti encouraged the winners to take office and sent special police units to protect them.

One policeman and three Serbs were killed in armed clashes in the north of the country last September after the conflict broke out. Dozens of NATO troops were also injured in protests as they tried to keep the two sides apart.

The Kosovo government has confiscated hundreds of weapons, including machine guns, mortars and anti-tank grenades, found during police raids in troubled areas.

EU mediation fails

Despite repeated attempts to defuse the conflict, the European Union has failed. This week, EU negotiators tried to bring the parties together for a trilateral meeting in Brussels, attended by the bloc’s special envoy to the conflict, former Slovak foreign minister Miroslav Lajčák, but the parties refused.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen invited Balkan leaders to a working dinner in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the EU’s growth agenda and the region’s integration into the European single market. Kurti and Vučić attended the dinner but did not speak.

We have no relationship,” Vučić told POLITICO before the trip.

Kurti closes local Serb institutions with police force

Vučić insisted he was not interested in stoking tensions. I don’t want to be part of an anti-Kurti campaign or a smear campaign against anyone,’ the Serbian leader said, adding that the Kosovo leadership ‘seems to be obsessed with him’.

Serbia continues to provide financial support to Serbs living in Kosovo, particularly in the areas of health and education.

Over the past month, the Kurti government has sent police forces to close down and take over buildings housing local Serb institutions in towns such as North Mitrovica, Zubin Potok and Leposavic, which have a majority Serb population of about 80,000.

Belgrade accused of ‘ethnic cleansing’

Pristina’s latest moves have sparked protests and accusations that the Kosovo government is determined to ‘ethnically cleanse’ Serbs from areas where they are the majority.

Kurti has repeatedly insisted that he is applying Kosovo’s constitution, which gives him authority over the entire territory.

Serbia insists that Kosovo abide by existing agreements, including a commitment in the April 2013 Brussels Agreement to establish the Union of Serb Municipalities, a political body representing Kosovo’s Serb minority.

In response, the Kosovo government demanded the reopening of the Ibar River bridge, which leads to the Serb-majority north of the country and is guarded by NATO.

Vučić: EU and US agree with us

Both sides will meet separately with NATO officials during their visit to Brussels.

Vučić claims that Kosovo is blocking progress in the talks.

“Even if people in Brussels see which side is blocking progress, they would never say so publicly,” he told POLITICO. The EU and the Americans agree with us,” he told POLITICO.

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Meloni vows to fight EU ‘green rules’

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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has described the EU’s ban on the sale of new fossil fuel-powered car engines after 2035 as a “self-destructive” policy and vowed to put pressure on Brussels to “correct these decisions”.

Speaking at the Italian industry association Confindustria on Wednesday, the prime minister argued that the ‘forced conversion’ of the entire EU market for new light vehicles to electric within ten years was ‘very unwise as a strategy’.

The green transition cannot mean the destruction of thousands of jobs or the elimination of entire industries that generate wealth and jobs,” Meloni said, criticising the “disastrous effects” of Europe’s Green Deal and its “ideological approach”.

Meloni argued that the EU should follow the principle of technological neutrality, allowing each member state to define its own tactics to reduce CO₂ emissions, rather than mandating a wholesale switch to electric vehicles.

Italian leader warns about raw materials and supply chain

“We want to defend Europe’s industrial capacity,” said Meloni, arguing that when it comes to electric vehicles, the EU does not own the raw materials and does not control the value chain.

“I promise to continue to work vigorously to correct these decisions. We want to follow the path of reducing emissions … with common sense … using all available technologies … saving tens of thousands of jobs,” he said.

Those who are friends of Europe must have the courage to show what does not work,’ Meloni said, reiterating his government’s commitment to ‘fix’ these policies.

“Europe’s ambitious environmental goals must be backed by adequate investment and resources, together with a coherent plan to achieve them,” Meloni said, referring to the recent report on Europe’s competitiveness by former Italian prime minister and former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi.

He was sharply critical after Italy, Germany, and some eastern European countries such as the car parts-producing Czech Republic stepped up calls for an early and urgent review of EU car emissions rules, which would mean a ban on the sale of new internal combustion engines by 2035.

German minister: Europe loses credibility

The rules, agreed for 2023, are among the most controversial parts of the bloc’s ambitious Green Deal climate policy, with carmakers and governments of car-producing countries calling for a delay to the ban or more flexibility in the rules, including allowing the use of carbon-neutral e-fuels.

“Europe is losing credibility because it is setting targets that even it cannot meet,” German Transport Minister Volker Wissing, a member of the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), told a transport trade fair this week.

“While recognising that it is necessary to set targets, they must be realistic and ‘feasible in practice’,” Wissing said.

Brussels has the right to review the legislation in 2026, prompting conservative MEPs, including members of Ursula von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP), to call on Brussels to use this opportunity to reconsider the ban.

Italy is even pushing for the review to be postponed until next year, as its own car industry faces a deepening crisis with falling production due to falling consumer demand for electric vehicles.

Sharp drop in car production in Italy

According to the National Automobile Industry Supply Chain Association, which represents Italy’s car and parts manufacturers, only 225,000 passenger cars were produced in Italy in the first seven months of 2024, down 35.5 per cent on the same period last year.

Speaking at a recent business forum, Italian Industry Minister Adolfo Urso said: “The Green Deal as it was conceived has failed. The European car industry is collapsing. Decisions have to be taken; we cannot wait two years,” he said.

Stellantis, Italy’s largest carmaker and the international group that owns the Fiat brand, announced last week that it was suspending production of electric Fiat 500s at its historic Turin plant for four weeks, citing weak demand.

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Wilders rejoices over unlikely Dutch EU migration opt-out request, dubs it ‘mini-Nexit’

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Geert Wilders, leader of the PVV in the Netherlands, has announced his government’s formal request to the European Commission to withdraw from the EU’s migration policy.

Geert Wilders, leader of the PVV, which came first in the recent national elections, spoke about the Dutch request during a debate in the lower house of the Dutch parliament.

“It will probably take a very long time [to be finalised]. But nevertheless it is a sign that a new wind is blowing in the Netherlands,” Wilders said, referring to Brexit and describing the move as ‘a kind of mini-Nexit’.

Wilders’ PVV party dropped calls for a “Nexit” (the Netherlands leaving the EU) in its EU election manifesto, as it did in 2019. In its manifesto for the 2023 national elections, the PVV said it wanted a binding referendum for the Dutch to decide whether to leave the European Union.

On Wednesday, Dutch Minister of Asylum and Immigration Marjolein Faber of the PVV sent an official letter to EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson outlining her government’s intentions.

We must once again be responsible for our own asylum policy,’ the minister wrote on X after sending the letter.

The Dutch withdrawal request had been expected since the new four-party government, led by independent Dick Schoof and including Wilders’ PVV, adopted the toughest migration programme in the country’s history.

“The exit clause from the European asylum and migration policy will be submitted to the European Commission as soon as possible,” the political agreement signed in July states.

The political coalition agreement aims to reduce migration flows, which are seen as putting pressure on the country’s health, education and housing sectors, among others.

However, the announcement of the Dutch withdrawal request surprised Brussels, which was less convinced of its feasibility.

We have of course taken note of the letter,’ a Commission spokesman told the press on Wednesday.

He added that the letter itself ‘recognises that withdrawal is only possible in the context of treaty change’.

But the Commission spokesman added that existing laws ‘remain binding on the Netherlands’ as no immediate changes to EU asylum and migration rules are expected.

This means that the Netherlands will have to work to implement the recently adopted EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, a system of ‘obligatory solidarity’ that member states must comply with within two years.

“We welcome the minister’s statement that he will continue to prioritise the implementation of the (migration) pact, which is clearly a priority for the Commission,” the Commission spokesperson added.

By the end of the year, member states will have to submit implementation plans detailing how they intend to implement the law.

According to the migration pact, EU countries can choose one of three options for asylum seekers: pay 20,000 euros for each rejected asylum seeker, house them or fund operational support.

Earlier this year, the Netherlands announced that it would pay instead of taking in more asylum seekers.

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