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China and Pakistan agree to speed up work on CPEC: Insecurity is key challenge

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China and Pakistan have agreed to accelerated progress on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a massive bilateral project to improve infrastructure within Pakistan for better trade with China and to further integrate the countries of South Asia. CPEC is part of the larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to improve connectivity, trade, communication and cooperation between several countries. BRI was announced by the Chinese government in 2013, and work to achieve this goal has been in progress since then. CPEC in Pakistan includes projects such as a 3,000km road construction, water-electricity dams, building and rebuilding of sea-and-land corridors as well as work on deep water port in Gwadar in the Arabian Sea and a well built road and rail link from this port to Xinjiang region in western China. This port would be a shortcut trade route between Europe and China. In Pakistan, the CPEC will overcome electricity shortfall, infrastructural development and modernizing transportation networks. Pakistan can also move itself from an agricultural based economic structure to industrial based and CPEC is only the key project to achieve this goal.

Pakistan officials visited China to push work on CPEC

Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar had paid a three-day official visit to China, where he met with  Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China, Liu Jianchao, where they discussed issues related to the CPEC.

During the meeting in the capital city, Beijing, the two sides agreed to further accelerate work on CPEC projects and they also discussed the longstanding cooperation and exchanges between the political parties of Pakistan and the Communist Party of China.

Senator Dar reaffirmed Pakistan’s firm support to China on its core issues while Minister Liu expressed China’s support for Pakistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and high-quality socioeconomic development, according to a statement issued by the Foreign Office.

The two leaders also reaffirmed the importance of the All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership between Pakistan and China and to further reinforce mutually beneficial collaboration. “

They also expressed joint determination to accelerate progress on all CPEC projects including ML-I upgradation, Gwadar Port and KKH realignment.

CPEC security is important to Sino-Pakistani ties

China and Pakistan both are on the same page to accelerate work on CPEC, but security is the main obstacle and the important part of the project is Gwadar Port which is located in Balochistan, a state where security incidents to hamper CPEC work has been on large scale.

Indeed, CPEC projects have yielded tangible benefits for the local economy and its people, but the recent wave of attacks has been one of key challenges, which Pakistani security agencies apparently failed to overcome.

A view of hydel power project under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) built on Jehlum river.

Pakistani security apparatus must put security issues on their priority in the wake of recent attacks against Chinese workers.

On May 9, at least seven workers were killed in the city of Gwadar in Balochistan, while a few weeks earlier, 11 people were shot dead in two separate incidents again in Balochistan.

It is worth mentioning that all the seven victims in Gwadar and the nine bus passengers who were gunned down near Noshki were from Punjab province. These targets clearly add to the ethnic dimension of the incident and this is because the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), has been openly said to target anyone as they want freedom of Balochistan. Targeting people from Punjab is part of their strategy to pressurize the central government in Islamabad.

BLA group would do everything to hamper CPEC proejct

Meanwhile, BLA would also not hesitate to attack Chinese sites and workers in a bid to hamper the work on CPEC and BLA will continue to target Chinese engineers to stop progress on CPEC as well as to damage China-Pakistan relations.

On March 26, five Chinese nationals and a Pakistani citizen were killed in a suicide attack targeting a vehicle carrying Chinese staff working on the Dasu Dam in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

It is important to mention that similar attacks targeting Chinese citizens happened in 2021 and 2022, leaving many people dead and wounded.

Indeed, each of these terror attacks has its own specific dynamics and the target is clear to just hamper CPEC and also to discourage China on CPEC project, but so far Beijing’s reaction to the incident has been firm, but at the same time for example after March 26 attack, Beijing called for a thorough investigation, and even called for a forming a join investigation team. China also assured that Beining and Islamabad’s cooperation can not be sabotaged by any attempt and recently both agreed to accelerate work on the CPEC.

There have been security failures on part of Pakistan

Undoubtedly, there have been security failures on the part of the security establishment of Pakistan, which failed to maintain security across the country, especially in Balochistan. The Pakistan army needs to chalk out an effective security plan to help improve security and avoid any security lapses that could affect Pakistan-China interests, and particularly to protect the lives of humans. The recent killing of seven barbers in Balochistan is unjustifiable.

Security issue has always been a headache in Pakistan, where several big incidents happened, but there could be lots of internal, regional and international reason behind that. But what is the most important is that Pakistan is also suffering from fragile economic condition and CPEC is one of the most important projects that could play an important role in improving the country’s economy.

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Japanese warship transits Taiwan Strait for first time, Beijing reacts

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A Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force ship transited the Taiwan Strait for the first time on Wednesday, Japanese media reported.

The Japanese destroyer Sazanami, along with ships from the Australian and New Zealand navies, ‘transited’ the narrow waterway between mainland China and the island of Taiwan, Kyodo news agency said.

The ships are believed to have been in the South China Sea for exercises, Kyodo reported.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) followed and monitored them throughout the process, and the situation was under control,’ the Chinese newspaper Global Times reported, citing unnamed sources.

China warned on Thursday that it was ‘extremely vigilant’ and had complained to Japan after the latter said it had sent a ship into the Taiwan Strait.

When a Japanese self-defence force ship entered the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese military … handled the matter in accordance with the law,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, adding that ‘China is extremely vigilant about the political intentions of Japan’s actions’.

The crossing came about a week after Tokyo protested to Beijing over the new route taken by the PLA Navy’s Liaoning aircraft carrier and two destroyers on their way to the Pacific.

The Liaoning and two Type 052D guided missile destroyers sailed through the East China Sea towards Japan’s adjacent territories, passing between the islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote.

A month ago, amid escalating regional tensions, Japan announced that a Chinese military aircraft had entered its airspace and that Japanese warplanes had responded.

Relations between the two Asian powers have become even more problematic as Tokyo’s geopolitical and military alignment with the United States has deepened.

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China tests first intercontinental ballistic missile in 44 years

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China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday for the first time in 44 years, in a show of force that raised concerns among the United States and its allies.

The test, Beijing’s first major missile launch since its two hypersonic weapons tests in the summer of 2021, came as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted intensive air and naval exercises in the region and ahead of a meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden expected in the coming weeks.

China’s defence ministry said the ICBM carrying a dummy warhead was launched into international waters at 8.44am, adding that it was a ‘routine adjustment in our annual training plan’ in accordance with international law and was not aimed at any country or target.

However, the West has interpreted the launch as a political message and it is thought that it could raise concerns in the US that Beijing is modernising its nuclear weapons.

According to analysts, China has signalled that it has the capability to strike US territory with nuclear weapons. Notably, this show of force coincided with the Xi-Biden meeting.

In July 2021, the PLA launched a missile using a ‘fractional orbit bombardment’ system to propel a nuclear-capable ‘hypersonic glide vehicle’ around the Earth for the first time. It conducted a second hypersonic test the following month.

Analysts say the Rocket Force, the PLA’s conventional and nuclear missile arm, has used ranges in Xinjiang or the Bohai Sea as the target area for almost all its tests. The last time an ICBM was launched from a range other than these two was in 1980.

Beijing did not specify which missile it tested on Wednesday or where it was launched. But four security officials in Asia said the launch came from Hainan in southern China and was judged to be a land-based ICBM like the Dongfeng-41.

It does not appear to have been launched from a [Rocket Power] base or the Wenchang Space Launch Centre. It was most likely launched from a coastal area,’ Duan Dang, a Vietnam-based maritime security analyst, told the Financial Times.

Two senior Japanese officials said the ICBM did not fly over Japanese territory. But this launch, along with their recent attacks on our territory with military aircraft and ships, is seen as a serious provocation to the stability of this region,’ one of the officials said.

China could catch up with the US in nuclear weapons by 2030

China, which in the past had few nuclear warheads to retaliate against an enemy nuclear attack, is now rapidly expanding its arsenal of warheads and missile launchers.

According to US defence experts, this build-up could put China on a par with the world’s two leading nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, by the early 2030s.

This has sparked a debate in Washington about whether and how the United States should expand and adjust its own nuclear capabilities and posture.

According to the Japanese military, another PLA Navy fleet entered the Sea of Okhotsk on Monday, while Chinese and Russian naval vessels conducted joint training near Japan.

Experts say that by conducting the ICBM test at the same time as other exercises, the PLA is trying to demonstrate its capabilities across the board.

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China’s central bank cuts benchmark rate, announces new stimulus measures

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China has announced a series of stimulus measures, including a cut in its benchmark interest rate, as it grapples with a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

In a public briefing on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China also announced more support for the struggling property sector, as well as a state fund to revive the stock market and help with share buybacks.

While economists were sceptical that China could meet its full-year growth target of 5%, Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said the measures were aimed at ‘supporting the steady growth of China’s economy’ and ‘promoting a moderate price recovery’.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index, which tracks shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 3.8 per cent on Tuesday after the announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.9 per cent, led by mainland Chinese companies listed in the region.

Pan said the central bank’s main policy rate, the short-term seven-day reverse repurchase rate, would be cut to 1.5 per cent from 1.7 per cent.

“The central bank will also cut the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of reserves lenders must hold, by 0.5 percentage points, signalling a possible further cut of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points this year. The RRR cut will provide Rmb1 trillion ($142 billion) of liquidity to the banking system”, he said.

“The rare simultaneous cut in policy rates and the RRR, the relative size of the cuts, and the unusual guidance on further policy easing all point to policymakers’ growing concern about headwinds to growth,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients. “In our view, this signals a new round of policy easing to support the real economy,” he said.

“However, further demand easing – especially fiscal easing – is likely to be needed to improve China’s growth outlook,” they added.

China’s economic growth has slowed in recent months as a prolonged downturn in the property sector has weakened consumer sentiment and reduced spending.

Economists have cut growth forecasts below the government’s official target of 5 per cent by 2024 as deflationary forces persist and producer prices have fallen since last year.

Policymakers have turned to exports in the hope that the housing crisis will bottom out, but strong shipments of electric vehicles, batteries and other goods have failed to fully offset the weak domestic economy.

“China’s economy is recovering, and the monetary policy our bank has introduced this time will help support the real economy, stimulate spending and investment, while providing a stable floor for the exchange rate,” Pan said.

Pan was joined by Li Yunze, director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the new financial sector watchdog, and Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the market regulator.

The government will boost stock market liquidity by allowing brokers, insurance companies and funds to use central bank facilities to buy shares, officials said. The People’s Bank of China will also provide credit facilities for shareholders to buy back shares.

“A new stimulus is definitely positive,” said Liu Chang, macro economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

But with economic momentum weak heading into the fourth quarter, he said the authorities would have to ‘move very quickly to implement additional measures in the coming weeks if they want to achieve the 5 per cent target’.

In this context, we think there is still a worrying lack of urgency behind their words on stimulus,” Liu said.

Among other measures, the bank reduced mortgage down payments for second homes from 25 per cent to 15 per cent. Second homes had previously been subject to stricter conditions to curb property speculation, a focus of President Xi Jinping.

The central bank also said it would improve conditions for its destocking programme, under which it is providing Rmb300 billion to local state-owned enterprises to help them buy unsold inventory from property developers.

Economists say reducing China’s unsold housing stock is crucial to restoring confidence in the economy and boosting domestic consumption.

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