The prime ministers of India and Canada could reap short-term political benefits from the unprecedented expulsion of top diplomats from each country, analysts told Reuters.

Canada expelled six Indian diplomats on Monday, linking them to the killing of a Sikh separatist leader and alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents in Canada. India retaliated by expelling six Canadian diplomats.

While this tit-for-tat move has pushed bilateral relations to a new low, Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau are unlikely to dwell too much on it. Both leaders are in their third terms and face significant political challenges.

Analysts say the move could bolster Modi’s hawkish image on national security.

“I think people will see the Indian government standing up to intimidation and coercion by a developed country,” said Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary. “People will strongly support Prime Minister Modi and the government.”

Modi suffered a setback in the June elections when his Bharatiya Janata Party unexpectedly lost its majority. Weakened, Modi had to rely on regional allies to form a coalition government.

Canada is home to the largest Sikh population outside of India, making up about 2% of the country’s population. In recent years, demonstrations for a separate Sikh homeland have angered the Indian government, which regularly accuses Canada of harboring separatists.

Harsh Pant, head of foreign policy at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think-tank, said the more Trudeau reached out to India, the better it would be for Modi.

“(Trudeau) is seen as the leader of a country that defends the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a nation,” Pant told Reuters. “This, in a way, sums up why Modi’s popularity will not wane.”

For Trudeau, whose Liberal Party is trailing in the polls ahead of a national election due in October 2025, the incident has shifted attention from internal party struggles, including alleged efforts by disgruntled lawmakers to force him to step down.

“We will have time to talk about the intrigues within the party at another time,” Trudeau told reporters on Sunday. “Right now, this government and all parliamentarians need to focus on defending Canada’s sovereignty, standing up to interference, and supporting Canadians during this difficult moment.”

Leaders of Canada’s left-wing opposition parties, whose support Trudeau needs to maintain his minority government, have said they support the deportations.

However, Cristine de Clercy, a professor of politics at Trent University in Peterborough, said any boost for Trudeau is likely to be short-lived.

“Yes, we can say he will grab the headlines in the short term, but the list of domestic issues he has to deal with is much longer and more complex than this single event in a distant country,” she said.

The politically influential Sikh community has supported the Liberals and other parties in recent years. At least one leader said he welcomed the deportations but did not expect the diplomatic row to significantly affect domestic politics.

“It shows the government is holding India accountable, which is what they are supposed to do,” said Moninder Singh, spokesman for the B.C. Gurdwaras Council, a non-profit organization representing Sikh institutions in the province.

Pakistan is going to host a major security meeting tomorrow (Tuesday) with senior leaders from the regional countries, including China, Russia and India among them.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 2001 by China and Russia in order to discuss security concerns in Central Asian states and the wider region. At the height of political tensions, Pakistan will host the SCO meeting in the capital city, Islamabad, and it will be held under strict security measures, and Pakistan has declared a public holiday for three days.

The Taliban, the current ruler of Afghanistan, have not been officially invited to this meeting. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan has announced that seven Prime Ministers, one Vice President and the Foreign Minister of India will participate in this meeting.

This is the first major regional meeting that Pakistan is hosting after many years in the wake of Pashtoon justice jirga which has been held in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province with participation of thousands of people from different segments of the country. Meanwhile, protests by the supporters of the former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s have also made the political atmosphere of this country tense.

At the same time, the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan has always been a serious concern of the members of this SCO, and the presence of terrorist groups and drug smuggling from Afghanistan were also a great concern among the members at the Shanghai Summit in Kazakhstan.

However, Pakistan is hosting the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the SCO, which is the second highest meeting of this organization. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan has announced that the prime ministers of China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, along with the first vice president of Iran and the foreign minister of India, will attend the meeting.

Afghanistan’s membership in SCO is not clear since September 2021 when Taliban return to power.

Also, the Prime Minister of Mongolia as an observer member and Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan will participate in the meeting as special guests.

In 2005, the contact group of the Shanghai-Afghanistan Cooperation Organization was established, and since then efforts have increased for Afghanistan to be a permanent member of this organization.

However, after the collapse of the republic system and the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan, the status of Afghanistan’s membership in this organization is not clear, and the Taliban also not invited in this meeting.

Express Tribune, a Pakistani media outlet, has reported, quoting its diplomatic sources, that the Taliban were not invited to the Summit.

According to the Tribune, the secretariat of this meeting has not issued any invitation to the Taliban. The absence of the Taliban in this meeting has been confirmed after the secretariat of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization did not send an invitation to the Taliban.

This decision has been taken due to the current situation in Afghanistan and the non-recognition of the Taliban by any country, as well as the inactive status of Afghanistan’s permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The report also said that Afghanistan’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been inactive since September 2021.

Members of SCO expressed concern over presence of IS and al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan.

Moreover, the heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization expressed their concerns about the activities of Islamic State (IS), also known as Daesh, al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan on July three of this year in Kazakhstan. Some of these countries have said that opium and heroin are smuggled from Afghanistan to their soil.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan media reported that the security institutions have tightened security, and they are ready to maintain security of the summit.

Pakistani media also reported about the non-participation of the Indian Prime Minister in this meeting. It is said that India and Pakistan participate in the meeting of the Council of Heads of State at the level of foreign ministers, because the prime ministers of these countries participate in the meeting of the heads of state, which is the highest forum of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Shahbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, will preside over this meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and on the sidelines of the meeting, he will discuss with the delegations of countries about regional issues and strengthening Pakistan’s economic relations with the members of SCO.

According to the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, this meeting will be about ongoing cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, environment and socio-cultural ties and will review the performance of this organization in the mentioned fields.

This important regional meeting will be held in Pakistan while this country is at the height of political tensions and ethnic differences. The supporters of Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, gathered in the streets of Islamabad last week and demanded Mr. Khan’s release from prison. They warned with anti-government slogans that if the former prime minister is not released, they will come to the streets again.

Pakistan hosting SCO at a time when political stability is fragile in the country.

On the other hand, the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement has held a “Pashtoon Jirga” in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Thousands of people, including Pashtun political leaders from different political currents, have participated in this Jirga.

This Jirga has faced widespread reactions among the citizens and politicians of Afghanistan. A number of non-Pashtun activists considered this Jirga ethnic and considered it the cause of hypocrisy among the citizens of the country, while another group supported the claim of this movement and described it as an action to ensure justice at the regional level.

At the same time, a number of politicians have said that neither exaggerated descriptions nor prejudiced reactions are the solution, and it remains to be seen what the outcome of this Jirga will be in light of the rapid developments taking place in the region.

SCO is a political, economic and security alliance working for betterment of the region

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a political, economic and security alliance in Eurasia that was established in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The organization has since expanded to include India, Pakistan and Iran as full members, while Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia are recognized as observers and other countries as dialogue partners. The SCO is often seen as a counterbalance to Western alliances such as NATO and plays an important role in strengthening regional cooperation.

The highest decision-making body of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the Council of Heads of State (CHS). This council meets once a year and deals with important issues of the organization.

The Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) (CHG) is also held once a year to review the strategy of multilateral cooperation and priorities within the organization, determine fundamental issues and current issues in the economic and other fields, and approve the budget of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The organization has two permanent bodies: the Secretariat in Beijing and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) in Tashkent.

Afghanistan had joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an observer member on June 7, 2012.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and many other leaders are expected to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22-24 October. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the summit would be important for BRICS expansion and international issues.

Representatives of more than 30 countries and heads of some international organisations have confirmed their participation in the BRICS Summit to be held in Kazan on 22-24 October.

At a press conference on 3 October, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov revealed only two names: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Dilma Rousseff, former president of Brazil and president of the New Development Bank.

Ryabkov declined to provide information about the other guests, saying they were “outside my mandate” and would be announced by the Russian presidential administration closer to the summit.

At the beginning of his speech, Ryabkov named five new members, including Saudi Arabia, which will join BRICS in early 2024, as well as the 10 existing BRICS members. All these countries will be represented at the highest level at the summit, the diplomat said.

In addition to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa are expected to attend the summit.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, Massoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, President of Egypt, Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, and Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, are also expected in Kazan.

Türkiye’s role and the Ukraine issue

Commenting on President Erdogan’s participation in the Kazan summit, Ryabkov confirmed that Türkiye has officially applied to join BRICS, but for now Erdogan will participate in BRICS Plus outreach events. Ryabkov recalled that a unanimous decision by all member states is required for a country to join BRICS.

The summit is also expected to discuss Ukraine, where Erdogan has differences with Moscow. At the “Crimea Platform” meeting in September, Türkiye took a stance in favour of Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea.

In this context, it is known that Moscow does not see the possibility of direct contact with Kiev, but is open to various solutions, including the BRICS countries.

Ryabkov also spoke about the strategic stabilisation talks with the United States. He said that Russia was not ready for dialogue ‘as long as the US intention to inflict a strategic defeat on us remains unchanged’. He also criticised Washington’s desire to limit its own nuclear arsenal without taking into account the nuclear weapons of its European allies.

BRICS expansion and future

Further expansion of BRICS is not on the agenda for the summit in Russia. Although some 40 countries have expressed a desire to join BRICS or establish close cooperation, the union’s primary goal is to complete the integration of new members by 1 January 2024.

Ryabkov stated that the doors of BRICS will remain open, but there are some criteria for countries to join the union. These criteria include pursuing an independent foreign policy, playing an important role in international and regional affairs, and having good relations with BRICS countries.

A report on granting the BRICS a new ‘partner country’ status will also be presented in Kazan.

Ryabkov acknowledged that there are some difficulties within BRICS. In particular, he stressed that the national interests of member countries do not always coincide and that a single currency is not yet on the agenda in some areas, including financial issues. However, he noted that BRICS should take its decisions unanimously, which could slow down the development of the union from time to time.

At the end of the press conference, Ryabkov responded to a question about the similarity of the international situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Addressing his Western interlocutors, he said that the possibility of a direct confrontation between the nuclear powers should not be underestimated. We are now entering uncharted political and military territory. Our adversaries cannot afford to make a mistake, because the price of that mistake could be catastrophic,’ the deputy minister said.

Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian Council on International Relations, told Vedomosti newspaper that BRICS risks becoming a debating club incapable of taking effective decisions.

Kortunov said that the expansion of the organisation cannot be stopped and that steps towards expansion will be taken in Kazan. It is also expected that the status of a BRICS partner country will be more clearly defined and considered as a candidate status for future membership.

The issue of enlargement cannot be put on hold. Leaders who hope to join the organisation in one status or another are coming to Kazan,” the expert concluded.