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Scenes from Europe as it prepares for war

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As NATO countries in Europe prepare for a possible war with Russia, the armament dimension and ‘civil defence’ proposals go hand in hand.

There seems to be a continent-wide expectation. Germany, for example, is developing an app to help people find the nearest shelter in the event of an attack.

But when it comes to preparing for war, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, which are supposed to be the ‘frontline’, are leading the way.

They are already stockpiling grain, testing payment systems and making sure households can store emergency rations.

Finland asks its citizens: Can you survive 72 hours?

At 9am on 18 November, Finland launched a new website to show people how to survive for 72 hours in the event of a crisis or conflict.

A comprehensive online guide called “Preparing for Incidents and Crises” offers residents information and advice on everything from water cuts to forest fires, internet outages or “long-term crises … such as military conflicts”.

A separate website, 72tuntia.fi, asks Finns ‘Can you survive 72 hours in a series of crisis situations?’ and invites citizens to put their skills and equipment to the test.

According to The Guardian, the website urges people to “strengthen psychological resilience, increase personal cyber security and protect themselves indoors” (“Close doors and windows. Turn on the radio. Wait calmly for instructions”).

Emergency supplies: Power bank, flashlight, iodine tablets

According to Bloomberg, Finland’s ’emergency kit’ includes the following Bottled water, non-perishable food, clean buckets, pet food, toilet paper, power bank, battery-powered radio, flashlight, battery, cash, fire blanket, camping stove and fuel, plastic bag, tape, matches, hand sanitiser, wet wipes, first aid kit, medicine, iodine tablets.

On the same Monday, Sweden also began mailing updated leaflets to 5.2 million households, calling for ‘increased attention to war preparedness’.

The foreword to the Swedish leaflet reads: ‘We live in uncertain times. Armed conflicts are taking place in our part of the world. Terrorism, cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns are used to weaken and influence us.

The leaflet, which is also available in English, adds that collective resistance is essential and that if Sweden is attacked, ‘everyone must do their part to defend Sweden’s independence and our democracy… you are part of Sweden’s general emergency preparedness’.

Poor and rich in separate neighbourhoods, even in war preparation

But ‘war preparedness’ is not the same in every neighbourhood. Fatuma Mohamed, a health communicator in Stockholm, told the Guardian that many families in poorer areas don’t have food for the day, let alone a stockpile, while others are trying to find out where local shelters are.

Mohamed said she would like to see more face-to-face information given to people, rather than just leaflets.

Norway’s Civil Defence Directorate, DSB, has distributed a similar booklet to 2.6 million households in the country. We live in an increasingly turbulent world” affected by climate change, digital threats and “in the worst case, acts of war”, the leaflet says.

The Norwegian leaflet, for example, advises people to stock up on at least a week’s worth of non-perishable food, such as ‘crispbread, tinned pulses and beans, tinned sandwich spreads, energy bars, dried fruit, chocolate, honey, biscuits and nuts’.

Call to stock up on essentials

The DSB is also advising its citizens to stock up on essential medicines, including iodine tablets, in case of a nuclear accident and, like Sweden, to have multiple bank cards and cash at home.

Governments, central banks and businesses in the region are taking the lead in stockpiling emergency grain and medical supplies, making the financial system more resilient and encouraging households to store canned food and iodine tablets.

There’s also a lot of coverage of this 72-hour preparedness in Finland, on TV, on social media, in newspapers; I’ve even heard that they’re teaching children about it in schools. I mean, it’s getting a lot of media coverage right now, and it’s definitely changed my mindset,’ Lotta-Sofia Saahko, a 31-year-old writer from the southern Finnish town of Valkeakoski, told Bloomberg.

Saahko, who lives with his grandfather, said they have two five-litre water canisters and have started shopping to make sure they have enough canned pea soup and crispbread.

Scandinavian countries start hoarding grain

The scenarios include not only war, but also natural disasters due to climate change, energy disruptions and international cyber-attacks.

The Swedish authorities also give advice on how to evacuate, how to stop bleeding and how to talk to children about war.

Norway is reactivating its grain reserves and increasing its storage capacity.

Norway said in June that the country was stockpiling grain in preparation for the ‘unthinkable’, while Sweden plans to rebuild its reserves with seeds and fertiliser.

Miika Ilomaki, chief preparedness expert at the National Emergency Supply Agency, said officials and researchers had travelled to Finland for know-how.

Lithuania’s largest retailer, Maxima, has a plan to keep its supermarkets open in the event of a communications blackout, while its warehouses also have a list of essential goods to stockpile.

The country is also actively seeking to receive emergency medical supplies. Last year, it received the green light from the European Commission for a warehouse as part of a plan to have 22 stockpiles in 16 EU member states.

The Polish parliament this month passed a law requiring local authorities to have enough food and water to last 72 hours. Other measures include building an evacuation system and shelters.

In Denmark, the government set up a crisis ministry this year and began advising people to stockpile food and water for 72 hours.

Financial institutions working on war-proof payment systems

But time is running out for the financial system. The central bank is pioneering a system that, from next year, will allow Danes to continue using cards to buy food and medicine for a week in the event of a power cut or internet crash.

Ulrik Nordgaard, deputy governor of the central bank, said they were working with retailers, banks and payment companies to extend the time people can make offline card transactions from three to seven days.

“Retailers and banks have agreed to share equally the costs of any fraudulent activity, and other countries have shown interest in using this as a model,” Nordgaard said.

In an interview in Copenhagen last week, Nordgaard said the idea was to “prepare for the worst-case scenario”.

EU steps up defence efforts with UK

European officials say the continent is entering a new reality. More than three decades after the end of the Cold War and the threat of nuclear attack, the European Union is returning to its roots as an organisation born out of conflict to promote peace and security, Bloomberg reports.

The EU is trying to speed up talks with the UK on a new defence and security treaty as U.S. support for Ukraine wanes with the re-election of Donald Trump and the prospect of a peace deal that could “embolden Russia”.

Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, said on 14 November: “We are facing geopolitical tensions that show no signs of abating and we must be ready for any eventuality. All this makes it more important than ever that our Union is prepared for this new and more uncertain future.”

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Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.

Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.

The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.

“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.

Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.

“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.

Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.

In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:

“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”

The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.

Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.

The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.

Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.

The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.

Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.

The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.

Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.

Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”

He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.

A German government official said:

“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”

Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.

The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.

The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.

Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.

A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.

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EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture

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The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.

Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.

Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.

“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.

The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.

Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.

The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.

“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.

Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.

However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.

A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:

“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”

The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.

“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.

On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.

“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.

The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.

“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:

“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”

Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.

With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.

“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.

While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.

The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.

There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.

“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.

In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.

“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.

Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.

However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:

“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”

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Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid

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Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.

In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”

The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.

Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.

Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.

In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.

Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.

Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”

The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.

Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.

In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.

Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.

According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.

A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:

“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”

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