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Türkiye, an indispensable partner despite unpredictability, says German Council on Foreign Relations

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Following the detention of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, while the German government issued statements, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), an influential German think tank, made a significant statement.

The Türkiye articles published in a special issue of DGAP’s journal, Internationale Politik (IP), indicate that Ankara is an “indispensable partner” for Berlin, even if it is “unpredictable.”

The articles point out that Türkiye has grown significantly in terms of power and influence over the last twenty years, particularly highlighting developments in armament and military capabilities.

IP notes that Türkiye has intervened in Azerbaijan and Libya, and also has troops in Qatar and Somalia, adding that the Turkish navy is used in the Mediterranean in the dispute with Cyprus.

Cooperation with Türkiye is particularly important for EU member states because, although the country is in close cooperation with Russia, it also “definitively positions itself” against Moscow in regions where Turkish and Russian efforts to gain influence overlap.

Günter Seufert, an IP writer, states that Türkiye participates in NATO activities aimed at limiting Russia’s influence in the Black Sea region, saying, “It supports moves to control the airspace over Romania, and Turkish troops are part of the new NATO Battle Group in Bulgaria.”

Seufert also reminds that Türkiye supplied Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles to Ukraine, emphasizing that Baykar is currently building a factory in Ukraine for drone production, while the new Bayraktar Akıncı drone model uses Ukrainian engines.

The author also suggests that Türkiye is intensifying its cooperation with “Turkic-speaking states” in Central Asia, which Russia traditionally sees as its close sphere of influence, helping some of these states to now “take independent positions from Russia in regional conflicts.”

In another article, author Hürcan Aslı Aksoy notes that, in addition to trying to use Türkiye in the power struggle against Russia, Germany and the EU benefit from Türkiye’s role as a trade center, especially as an energy hub.

The IP writer notes that Türkiye wants to further strengthen its foreign trade and position itself as “a logistical center for international value chains with its huge infrastructure projects in the transportation sector.”

At this point, Türkiye is particularly striving to “become an important place in regional energy trade” and to make itself “indispensable as an energy corridor for the supply of oil and natural gas to Europe from the resource-rich countries of Central Asia and the Middle East.”

In addition, it is pointed out that Ankara continues to be of great importance for the EU’s “refugee defense.”

According to IP, Türkiye moves “multi-dimensionally and confidently” with all kinds of cooperation partners “without sticking to a specific camp,” which means that Germany and the EU can no longer “dictate” certain things to Türkiye, which now has alternatives.

Seufert states that when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the country in October 2023, “we witnessed a shift in German policy from the normative to the pragmatic.”

Seufert therefore argues that “Europe’s influence over Türkiye” is rapidly decreasing and that future negotiations will “probably” be conducted “on equal terms.”

Therefore, although the German government is showing harsh reactions at the level of discourse to İmamoğlu’s detention, it does not appear to be threatening “sanctions” as in previous years. Indeed, the cover of IP’s special issue emphasizes that Türkiye, as a “partner,” may be “unpredictable,” but is nevertheless “indispensable.”

DIPLOMACY

Athens postpones Mitsotakis-Erdoğan meeting after Imamoglu arrest

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The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has shaken diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Greece, leading Athens to announce the postponement of a planned meeting between the leaders of the two countries.

Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis stated, “Given these developments, it is becoming difficult to organize the High-Level Cooperation Council between Greece and Türkiye immediately.”

The High-Level Council consists of a series of meetings aimed at improving relations through “soft politics,” as progress on contentious issues such as territorial disputes has stalled.

As Kathimerini recently reported, the meeting planned between Greek leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on April 8 was not yet finalized due to the political crisis in Türkiye, even though negotiations between Athens and Ankara had reached their final stage.

The spokesperson added, “We are monitoring the developments in Türkiye. The situation remains fluid and concerning. Our stance on Imamoglu has not changed. Concessions on the rule of law and political freedoms are unacceptable, and convincing answers are needed for any concessions made.”

Marinakis mentioned that the issue could be discussed by the foreign ministers of both countries at the NATO foreign ministers’ summit in Brussels in early April.

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Trump’s proposed fees on Chinese ships threaten US maritime industry

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Industry executives stated on Monday at a US Trade Representative (USTR) hearing that President Donald Trump’s plan to revitalize the US shipbuilding industry is likely to backfire, as it relies on proposed fees for China-linked vessels that would harm domestic ship operators, ports, exporters, and employment.

The discussion centers on the stacking of fees on Chinese-built ships, which could exceed $3 million per visit to US ports. The Trump administration claims these fees will deter China’s increasing commercial and military dominance in open seas and encourage domestic shipbuilding. US steelworkers’ unions, US steel manufacturers, and Democratic lawmakers support this effort, saying it will revitalize the domestic industry.

However, this idea has created a shockwave in the local maritime industry, as it threatens the survival of the same shipping companies and customers that would increase the demand for orders from the US shipyards Trump wants to rebuild.

“The effort to strengthen American shipbuilding would not serve the national interest if it inadvertently destroyed American-owned carriers,” said Edward Gonzalez, CEO of Seaboard Marine, the largest US international ocean cargo carrier, based in Florida, on Monday.

Like many US operators, Seaboard relies on Chinese-made ships. According to maritime data provider Alphaliner, its fleet of 24 ships includes 16 Chinese-built vessels.

US ship operators said that fees on China-linked ships would push more US cargo to foreign-capitalized ocean transport companies, which have the resources to better handle the change.

According to the USTR, China’s share of the shipbuilding market rose from under 5% in 1999 to over 50% in 2023.

Speakers said that US shipyards produce fewer than 10 ships a year, while China produces 1,000.

Meanwhile, industry executives noted that shipbuilders in Japan and Korea would struggle to meet demand in the years it would take for US shipyards to build capacity.

Kathy Metcalf, CEO of the Chamber of Shipping of America, said that replacing existing Chinese-built ships is not like flipping a light switch. “Punishing China and the US maritime transport system is not an acceptable outcome,” she said.

US ship operators support key American industries such as manufacturing, mining, and agriculture by transporting goods on inland waterways, along the Great Lakes, and up and down the country’s coasts.

Agricultural exporters are struggling to book ships after May due to uncertainty in the USTR plan, while coal industry representatives also state that the fees make it difficult to offer their goods to the global market.

“I urge you to ensure that your efforts to increase domestic shipbuilding do not come at the expense of farmers’ access to the market,” said Mike Koehne, a board member of the American Soybean Association, who grows soybeans and corn in Indiana.

Nate Herman, senior vice president of policy for the American Apparel & Footwear Association, which is dependent on imports, said port fees would lead to job losses for American workers, higher costs for American exports and imports, and scarcity and rising prices for American consumers.

He cited a new study by various trade groups showing that high costs from port fees would cause US exports to fall by almost 12% and GDP to fall by 0.25%.

“Hardworking American families cannot afford more price increases and product shortages, and American manufacturers and farmers cannot afford to lose more export markets,” Herman said.

Representative Rosa DeLauro and 62 other Democrats in Congress supported the proposed fees and other “swift and decisive” actions in a letter sent to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Monday, saying that China’s dominance in the sector poses “unacceptable costs and risks” in terms of job losses and critical manufacturing capacity.

They requested the USTR to provide a facility that would allow firms to avoid fees by routing their cargo through Mexico or Canada.

The USTR, which will hear more comments at a hearing on Wednesday before finalizing the proposal under the Unfair Trade Practices Act, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In the current proposal, to completely avoid fees, ship operators must be based outside of China, have less than 25% of the ships in their fleet built in China, and not plan to order or take delivery from Chinese shipyards in the next two years.

A draft executive order seen by Reuters earlier this month would further narrow this limit by imposing port fees on all fleets with Chinese-built ships.

Shipowners could try to minimize the blow by using larger ships and limiting calls to major US ports, but this could put those ports in a difficult situation and lead to supply chain-related stress.

According to ship and port operators, ship operators could also shift cargo bound for the US to ports in Canada and Mexico and rely on trucks and trains to complete the journey, but this measure could also clog border crossings and cause more infrastructure wear and tear.

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US expresses optimism after Riyadh talks with Russia

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According to a CBS News report citing informed sources, the technical team from the US that participated in talks with a Russian delegation in Riyadh submitted an “optimistic” assessment to the administration of President Donald Trump.

Reuters reported that discussions between Russia and the US included steps to support Trump’s efforts to end the conflict, including a potential ceasefire in the Black Sea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Black Sea initiative was on the agenda in Riyadh.

Peskov stated that maritime security was a primary focus. Bloomberg added that technical details regarding a 30-day halt in attacks on energy facilities were also discussed.

On March 24, Trump addressed the topics discussed in Riyadh, saying, “Right now, we’re talking about territories. We’re talking about border lines, power, and ownership of power plants.”

The US president also expressed general satisfaction with the progress of the talks and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin for his participation.

A White House source told Reuters that progress had been made in the Riyadh meetings and that a “positive announcement” was expected soon. Peskov added that Putin would be briefed immediately on the outcomes of the Russian and American delegations’ discussions.

Additionally, RIA Novosti reported, citing a source, that the Russian delegation was in good spirits following the talks with US representatives in Saudi Arabia.

The meeting between the two delegations lasted over 12 hours on March 24 at The Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, with three breaks. The discussions were closed to the press.

The Russian side was represented by Sergey Beseda, advisor to the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), and Grigory Karasin, head of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Federation Council. Russian Deputy President Yury Ushakov noted that these individuals were experienced diplomats well-versed in international affairs.

According to foreign media reports, the US delegation included Andrew Peek, senior director for Europe at the National Security Council, and Michael Anton, director of policy planning at the State Department, among others.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova emphasized that while major breakthroughs should not be expected from the Riyadh talks, it was important to recognize that work had been done across multiple areas.

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