Asia
India and Pakistan boost military capacity amid rising tensions

Former military officials and experts state that nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan have significantly increased their military capabilities following the 2019 clashes, a situation that raises the risk of escalation even in a limited conflict. Tensions are rising between the Indian and Pakistani armies.
Pakistan claims India is planning military intervention after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on local tourists in the Kashmir region last month. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he would punish those who supported the attack in a way they “cannot imagine.”
Pakistan denies involvement in the attack but warns it will retaliate if targeted.
In 2019, India conducted airstrikes inside Pakistan after a bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir, stating it had destroyed “terrorist camps.” Pakistani jets conducted retaliatory airstrikes in operations lasting two days and shot down an Indian aircraft. Now, retaliations are occurring intermittently between the Indian and Pakistani armies.
The neighboring countries have fought three wars in 1948, 1965, and 1971, and have clashed countless times since gaining independence, mostly over the Kashmir region, which both claim. Both countries acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s, and Kashmir is considered one of the world’s most dangerous conflict zones. The Indian and Pakistani armies have since increased their capabilities against potential conflicts.
Military experts state that neither side would consider using nuclear weapons unless cornered, but the risk of escalation is high even in a limited conflict.
Experts speaking to Reuters stated that in such a conflict, it is likely that aircraft, missiles, or drones, which are considered to be of equal strength between India and Pakistan, would be used.
Frank O’Donnell, a visiting fellow in the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, said, “Decision-makers in both countries are more willing to take risks in initiating and escalating conflict than they were before 2019.”
“However, without a clear mutual understanding of precise actions, this could inadvertently lead to escalation,” he added.
Both sides have acquired new conventional strike options by purchasing new military equipment since 2019.
Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, said, “Both sides will think they are in a better position than last time. But we will only know this when we see a real conflict.”
India, in particular, felt it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely on aging Russian jets. Since then, it has purchased 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets, considered one of the best Western aircraft, and has ordered more for its navy.
In contrast, Pakistan began purchasing batches of China’s J-10, one of its most advanced fighter jets and considered equivalent to the Rafale, starting in 2022. According to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Pakistan has at least 20 of these aircraft.
The aircraft have advanced capabilities similar to the Rafale, which is equipped with Meteor air-to-air missiles that operate beyond visual range. A Pakistani security official, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the J-10 is also equipped with similar PL-15 missiles.
To fill gaps in air defense that emerged during the 2019 conflict, India purchased Russia’s battle-tested S-400 mobile anti-aircraft missile system. Pakistan, on the other hand, acquired the HQ-9 from China, which is a lower-tier system based on Russia’s S-300 system.
Anil Golani, a former air marshal in the Indian Air Force and director general of the Center for Air Power Studies think tank in Delhi, said, “In some ways, we are definitely in a better position (than in 2019).”
Speaking to Reuters, Golani added, “The call for action in the country is very high, but in my personal assessment, neither India nor Pakistan wants an all-out conflict.”
On the other hand, the US and China factors are also being discussed. China is India’s rival and Pakistan’s close ally and largest military equipment supplier. The US, meanwhile, has strong relations with India.
Muhammad Faisal from the University of Technology Sydney said, “This could be a competition between Western and Chinese technology,” adding, “For India, there is a dilemma regarding how many air squadrons to allocate to the Pakistan front, as it also needs to defend against China.”
China and India fought a brief border war in 1962, and the two armies clashed most recently in 2022 on the tense Himalayan border.
Pakistan has a fleet of F-16 aircraft purchased during periods when its relations with Washington were stronger. These F-16s were used in the 2019 conflict, leading India to issue a protest note to the US, although New Delhi currently has much closer relations with Washington.
Experts said that this time, to avoid a political tension with F-16s and to leverage the advantage of having more advanced aircraft, Pakistan would likely lead with its Chinese-made J-10s.
However, a drone or ground-launched missile attack is considered more likely because there is no risk of the pilot being shot down.
India has turned to Israel for combat-capable drones and purchased the Heron Mark 2. It has also ordered Predator drones from the US. According to the Pakistani security official, Pakistan has purchased Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2, which Ukraine used in its war with Russia, and also the Akıncı UAV from Turkey.
Amidst the ongoing tension, Pakistan conducted a test of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 km (280 miles) on Saturday. A statement from the country’s army said the test was conducted to demonstrate the armed forces’ readiness to “protect national security against any aggression.” Pakistan also has short and medium-range missiles that can be fired from land, sea, and air.
India has not yet commented on the test. India’s capabilities include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile with a range of approximately 300 km and the Agni series of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The 2019 conflict nearly spiraled out of control with numerous missile strike threats.
Kaiser Tufail, a former fighter pilot in the Pakistan Air Force, said India failed to achieve deterrence in 2019, so this time it would aim for a sharper attack, which would bring more risk.
Modi implied after the 2019 clashes that they felt the lack of the Rafale fighter jets ordered at the time and that the outcome of the conflict might have been different if they had the French fighter jets.
“If you go beyond what we saw in 2019, that becomes very risky,” Tufail said, adding, “It is extremely dangerous for nuclear-armed countries to clash with each other.”
Asia
China hosts SCO defense ministers on warship amid regional tensions

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun hosted his Iranian counterpart and other high-level defense officials from Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states aboard an advanced Chinese warship, just days after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh was among the defense officials welcomed by Dong on a military vessel in the coastal city of Qingdao, China, as part of a two-day SCO defense ministers’ meeting that concluded on Thursday.
According to Chinese state television CCTV, Nasirzadeh and other defense officials toured the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s Type 052D destroyer, the Kaifeng, and later attended a reception on the ship’s deck.
Aboard the ship, Nasirzadeh thanked Beijing for “supporting Iran’s legitimate position following the recent attacks” by Israel and the US.
“We hope that China will continue to stand on the side of justice, help maintain the current ceasefire, and play a greater role in de-escalating regional tensions,” Nasirzadeh said, according to Xinhua.
In his address to the assembled ministers, Dong reportedly stated that “unilateralism, protectionism, and hegemonic and bullying acts are on the rise, seriously disrupting the international order and becoming the greatest source of chaos and conflict.”
Dong called for closer cooperation within the United Nations, the SCO, and other multilateral frameworks, urging members to unite with “more like-minded forces” to defend international justice and maintain global stability.
“SCO countries must remain true to the organization’s founding ideals, uphold the ‘Shanghai Spirit,’ and deepen practical cooperation in all areas,” Dong said. “With stronger actions, we can jointly safeguard a peaceful environment for development,” he added.
The event followed the US attacks on three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities on Saturday, which Beijing strongly condemned.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the attacks on nuclear facilities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency seriously violated the UN Charter and its principles.
Additionally, the SCO meeting coincided with a NATO leaders’ summit in The Hague. In a statement from The Hague, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would hold talks with Iran about a possible nuclear deal “in the coming week.”
Bilateral Talks
According to Xinhua, the Chinese defense minister later held separate bilateral meetings with the defense ministers of Belarus, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The state news agency reported that all parties appreciated Beijing’s efforts and significant contributions to developing SCO operational mechanisms and deepening inter-sectoral cooperation during its rotating presidency. They also expressed a strong will to further consolidate and expand military ties.
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif praised Beijing’s role in de-escalating tensions. “Pakistan highly values its robust friendship with China and is ready to work together to implement its three global initiatives, deepen military cooperation, and help maintain regional peace and stability,” he said.
For Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, this year—the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II, the Chinese people’s war of resistance against Japanese aggression, and the world’s anti-fascist war—presents an opportunity to deepen bilateral military relations. “In line with the consensus of our leaders, we will intensify strategic communication and cooperation and contribute to global strategic stability,” he said.
Meanwhile, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh also attended the Qingdao meeting. This marked the first visit by an Indian defense minister to China since the deadly border clash between the two countries in 2020.
Military trust
According to the Chinese Ministry of Defense, the SCO defense ministers’ meeting is one of the key events held during China’s rotating presidency of the SCO this year. The ministers, along with representatives from the SCO and regional anti-terrorism bodies, gathered to further strengthen military trust and deepen practical cooperation among member states.
The SCO, a 10-nation bloc comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Belarus, currently covers approximately three-fifths of the Eurasian continent and about 43% of the world’s population.
The Beijing meeting, held under the rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, highlighted China’s role as a significant international actor and the importance Tehran places on its relationship with Beijing, even as China has largely remained on the sidelines of the Israel-Iran conflict.
During a regular press conference at the Chinese Ministry of Defense on Thursday, when asked if Beijing was considering providing military support to Iran as an SCO member, ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang told CNN, “China is ready to cooperate with all parties to play a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East.”
Kaifeng destroyer
The Kaifeng destroyer, where the meeting’s reception was held, is the sixth vessel of the extended Type 052D variant and serves in the North Sea Fleet. Commissioned in April 2021, the ship is approximately 159 meters (521 feet) long, weighs 7,500 tons, and is equipped with 517C anti-stealth radar. Its expanded deck allows for the landing of the PLA Navy’s Z-20 helicopters.
The warship has conducted numerous long-range exercises, including a passage through the Tsushima Strait in April, as part of Beijing’s growing operational presence in the western Pacific.
It was publicly displayed during the 74th-anniversary celebrations of the Chinese navy in Qingdao in 2023.
Asia
Japan’s prime minister skips NATO summit amid alliance strain

In the fifth month of Donald Trump’s second administration, the United States and its most crucial ally in the West Pacific, Japan, appear to be out of sync.
On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced he would not attend this week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands. Additionally, he neither supported nor condemned Trump’s decision over the weekend to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
These are just the latest signs of discord that have emerged in recent weeks. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya is set to visit Washington for a QUAD foreign ministers’ meeting with his counterparts from India and Australia later this month, but the expected two-plus-two meeting of US and Japanese foreign and defense ministers will not take place.
A US official told Nikkei Asia in late May that an inter-agency agreement had been reached on the US side to demand that Japan increase its defense spending to 3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) as part of ongoing trade negotiations aimed at reducing tariffs.
However, a new figure of “3.5%” began circulating in Washington after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with his Australian counterpart, Richard Marles, during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30.
A Pentagon statement released two days after the meeting said, “Secretary Hegseth conveyed that Australia needs to increase its defense spending to 3.5% of its GDP as soon as possible.”
US officials, led by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, began stating that the new “fixed demand” for Asian allies was 3.5%.
Last week, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell formalized this by issuing a statement indicating that European allies had set a new “global standard” for US alliances at 5% of GDP. This statement was related to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recently announced spending targets of 3.5% for military procurements and 1.5% for related infrastructure.
A Japanese official told Nikkei that Tokyo was open to discussions on increasing defense spending, but the process appeared disorderly. Officials noted that Washington had not officially communicated any figures to Japan. It was also reported that Japanese officials had difficulty communicating directly with Colby.
Another Japanese official stated that if Japan were to increase its defense spending (currently 1.8% of GDP, with plans to reach 2% by fiscal year 2027), it would be a sovereign decision by Tokyo and would need to be explained with justifications that could be presented to the Japanese public.
Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, said the Trump administration had been “pretty inconsistent” in its approach to Japan, and this uncertainty would create a challenge for the alliance.
“Ishiba’s cancellation of the NATO meeting and the two-plus-two meeting, when put together, certainly form a concerning set of signals,” he said.
Cooper assessed, “To me, this suggests that Tokyo wants to wait for the upper house elections [on July 20] rather than engage directly with the Trump administration.”
Asia
US cries to China as Washington begins airstrikes in Iran

While the Middle East is going through one of its most tense periods, the world has been shocked by the news of a direct attack by the United States on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Washington has announced that Iran’s nuclear facilities no longer exist. At the same time, Tehran has warned in a strong tone that it will respond to this aggression.
This action was immediately met with widespread regional and international reactions. The United Nations, the European Union, global powers such as Russia and China, and America’s traditional allies in the West each took their own stance.
At an emergency meeting of the United Nations, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the move as a dangerous turn in an already crisis-ridden region. A wave of criticism has also emerged within the United States, with some describing the attack as successful.
At the same time, a number of lawmakers from both the Republican and Democratic parties consider Trump’s action to be without congressional authorization and unconstitutional.
Some reactions:
Russian envoy: US attack carried out without any provocation from Iran.
US Representative: The Iranian regime should not have nuclear weapons.
Iran’s ambassador to the Security Council: America once again sacrificed its security for Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israeli Ambassador to the Security Council: America changed the course of history by attacking Iran.
Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency: Military attacks should not be carried out on nuclear facilities, saying he is ready to immediately travel to all countries regarding this case.
UK UN envoy: Military action alone cannot address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, saying his country was not involved in Iran attack, referred to concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and said that military action alone cannot permanently address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. He called on Iran to exercise restraint and urged the parties involved to return to the negotiating table.
France: Now is the time to end the attacks and return to negotiations.
But now why US cries to China for help to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Soon after a US airstrike in three locations, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. Now this move puts the US in trouble and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.
However, it seems that the US is too late and according to Iran’s state-run Press TV, the decision was made by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
The US understands that any disruption on the supply of oil would have profound consequences for the economy and wants to play an emotional card with China to convince Iran to reopen the route as Beijing is also one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil.
It is reported that 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and major oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East use this route to export energy.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has said that regime change is inevitable if the Islamic Republic cannot “make Iran great again.” His statement came following US military strikes on Iranian military facilities.
Iran: Game is not over even assuming the complete destruction of the nuclear sites
Ali Shamkhani, advisor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the religious leader of Iran, has said in response to the US attacks that even assuming the complete destruction of the nuclear sites, the “game is not over”.
“Even assuming the complete destruction of the sites, the game is not over; because the enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, and political will remain intact,” he said.
He noted that “now the political and operational initiative with the right to self-defense is in the hands of the side that knows how to play smart and avoids blind shooting.”
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