Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the NATO Summit in Vilnius. In a statement released after the trilateral meeting, it was reported that Turkey will refer Sweden’s NATO Accession Protocols to the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM), while Sweden will support efforts to revitalize Turkey’s European Union (EU) membership process.

As part of this process, Sweden has significantly expanded its counter-terrorism cooperation against the PKK and resumed arms exports to Turkey, in line with all the steps set out in the Trilateral Memorandum agreed in 2022, the statement said, adding that the two countries are working closely together to address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns.

Turkey and Sweden agreed to continue cooperation within the framework of both the Trilateral Permanent Joint Mechanism established at the 2022 Madrid NATO Summit and a new bilateral security mechanism that will meet once every year at the ministerial level and establish appropriate working groups, the statement said:

“At the first meeting of this Security Compact, Sweden will present a roadmap as the basis of its continued fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations towards the full implementation of all elements of the Trilateral Memorandum, including article 4. Sweden reiterates that it will not provide support to YPG/PYD, and the organization described as FETÖ in Türkiye. Both Sweden and Türkiye agreed that counter-terrorism cooperation is a long-term effort, which will continue beyond Sweden’s accession to NATO.

Secretary General Stoltenberg also reconfirmed that NATO categorically condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. NATO will be significantly stepping up its work in this area, including by the Secretary General establishing, for the first time at NATO, the post of Special Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism. We commit to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defence trade and investment among Allies. We will work towards eliminating such obstacles.”

Speaking to Harici, Veteran Counter Admiral Deniz Kutluk and Counter Admiral Dr. Alaettin Sevim evaluated Sweden’s NATO membership.

‘International give-and-take exercise’

Counter Admiral Deniz Kutluk, who stated that NATO’s expansion is remarkable while the war in Ukraine continues, underlined that the center of gravity of the summit was Ukraine and said, “NATO is taking steps in terms of linking aid to Ukraine to a program in NATO and other support elements. There is a question of approving the operation plans prepared by NATO in three regions against Russia’s threats. This issue concerns Turkey closely because one of these three programs includes the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.”

Referring to Turkey’s requests for Sweden’s NATO membership, Kutluk said, “There are articles such as NATO’s support for Turkey’s rapprochement with the European Union and the establishment of a committee for the first time in NATO history by regulating Sweden’s attitudes towards terrorism. If you ask me about the European Union, the two organizations cannot influence each other, so Turkey’s membership in the European Union cannot be very successful. However, Turkey has exercised its right to bring this issue to the agenda. As a result, this is an international give-and-take exercise.”

‘Even if a decision is made, the planes will be delivered at least three years later’

Admiral Kutluk responded to questions about Russia’s stance on this issue and agenda issues such as F-16 fighter jets as follows:

“Sweden’s joining NATO is an issue that Russia does not see as a contradiction. Regarding Sweden and Finland, Russia has stated that it will not affect its relations with the two countries as long as no NATO offensive weapons are deployed. As far as the F-16s are concerned, this is a commercial concept. But it has a production time of three years. So if the decision is made today, the planes will be delivered at least three years later. Therefore, it is not known how Turkish-American relations will be in the next three years. US President Joe Biden has said that they will decide on the F-16 issue by considering the mutual interests of the congress. There is no definite map. But at the end of the day, this is a very large arms purchase deal. The US knows very well that there is no country that has surrendered to embargoes. In fact, in the text of the memorandum of understanding with Sweden in NATO, it is stated that no NATO member will impose economic and military embargoes on each other. It should not be forgotten that this is a clause that also binds the US.”

‘The missing pieces of the West in Europe are being put in place’

(V.) Rear Admiral Dr. Alaettin Sevim stated that Sweden’s membership points to a geo-strategic process and said:

“The missing pieces in Europe are to be put in place and with this membership, the West’s stronghold in Europe will be completed. NATO will emerge as a pillar in the developments in the Arctic Region in the North. On the other hand, NATO’s armament budget is to be increased through armaments at a time when the threat of global recession is increasing. The Russia issue is important here. A new process for an arms race to wear Russia down may begin. It was thought that the Soviet Union collapsed due to its inability to manage its economy well. We may face a new application of this event. Because, when we read prominent Western writers, it is clear that there are ideas in favor of Russia’s disintegration.

The issue of entry into the European Union was brought up at the last moment. Other countries in the bloc have also expressed that Sweden’s entry into NATO and Turkey’s entry into the EU are different issues. Therefore, it would not be reasonable to expect progress on this issue. Maybe Turkey can be supported by providing more economic aid to Turkey in the refugee issue.”

‘Russia will take its measures’

“The most important progress on Turkey’s demands could be on the modernization of the F-16s. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had said before the summit that they are prioritizing the congress on the F-16 issue, but what will our parliament say about it? This discourse paints a picture like this: If progress is made in the US on the F-16 issue, Turkey’s parliament will make as much progress with the US.

To summarize the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, I think it is an important step for NATO to close the gaps in Europe. The contribution of Sweden’s arms industry to NATO should be taken into consideration. Of course, to a certain extent, these countries have to make certain investments in NATO armaments. There will be economic aspects related to this. Russia will also have to take certain measures. This could be challenging for the Russian economy. On the map, Russia will have to think more about NATO’s borders, which are moving closer to Russian bases. The Polyarny base, the most important Russian ballistic submarine missile base, is very close to Finland. And more than half of Russia’s submarines with ballistic missiles are based there. Russia will take measures in this regard.”