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Beijing boosts domestic consumption as Chinese New Year begins

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The Lunar New Year holiday in China, which starts today, will provide a glimpse of whether recent efforts by central and local governments to boost consumption through subsidies are bearing fruit.

During the eight-day holiday, millions of people will travel to see family or visit domestic tourism spots. Long queues formed at railway stations towards the end of last week as some workers took additional leave to return early.

A teacher in her 30s working in Shanghai took a 14-hour train journey back to her hometown of Luzhou in the southwestern province of Sichuan on Friday. “I am looking forward to spending time with my family and relatives, mostly drinking, gossiping, and playing mahjong,” she told Nikkei Asia, noting that Luzhou is famous for its baijiu, or traditional hard liquor.

The earlier timing of the holiday compared to last year, when it started in February, was partly blamed for an unexpected contraction in China’s manufacturing activity in January, according to an official survey released on Monday. Still, the weak data “means that more needs to be done to help stimulate activity” through policy, HSBC said in a note on Monday.

The Chinese government expects a record 9 billion trips to be made between January 14 and February 22, a 40-day period when travel demand increases during the Lunar New Year, known as Chunyun. Although the government also predicted 9 billion trips last year, this figure represents a 7% increase on last year’s figures. Around 80% of journeys are expected to be made by car, while rail and air travel are forecast to reach 510 million and 90 million, respectively.

Local governments are developing rail networks across the country, making long-distance travel increasingly easier. Airlines are trying to compete during Chunyun with fares about 5% lower than last year, according to FlightAI, which tracks flight data, in a sign that frugal consumers are opting for the more affordable rail option.

Some shopping malls put up signs promoting the government’s subsidy program for household goods and cars launched last year. At a shopping center in Shanghai, a store selling Toshiba home appliances advertised discounts of up to 35%. E-commerce apps such as Taobao and JD.com set up special “government subsidy” sections and displayed banners saying products would be shipped as usual during the holidays.

Earlier this month, the government announced it was providing an additional 81 billion yuan ($11.1 billion) for the program, adding smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches.

Local governments are also offering discount coupons for cinema tickets, hotels, and other consumer activities. According to Chinese media, cinema ticket sales from January 28 to February 4 reached 736 million yuan, already surpassing last year’s bookings. This follows a dismal 2024, when box office sales fell 23% year-on-year.

Investors expect the government to implement additional policies following the announcement of official fiscal targets at the National People’s Congress in March. In a sign of relatively low expectations for generous New Year spending, shares of baijiu producer Kweichow Moutai have fallen 6% since the start of the year.

“Baijiu’s current sales volume is still low compared to the same period last year,” local brokerage Pacific Securities wrote in a recent report. “However, the decline has narrowed compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2024,” it added.

ASIA

Interest rates in Australia reduced for the first time since 2020

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The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years on Tuesday but warned it was too early to declare victory over inflation and was cautious about the possibility of further easing.

The rate cut will provide some relief to borrowers and will be good news for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who faces a tough election on May 17 at the latest. Speculation is growing that Albanese may use this opportunity to call for early elections.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which completed its February policy meeting, cut the cash rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.1%, the first cut since November 2020, when the pandemic crisis pushed interest rates to an all-time low of 0.1%.

Markets had largely bet on a quarter-point cut after core inflation surprised to the downside at 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Swaps pointed to only an 18% probability of the next cut in April, but a move in May is still almost fully priced in.

‘While today’s policy decision acknowledges the welcome progress in inflation, the Committee remains cautious about the prospects for further policy easing,’ the Committee said, noting that upside risks to inflation persist due to the strong labor market.

‘The Committee’s assessment is that monetary policy is restrictive and will remain so after this reduction in the cash rate.’

The Australian dollar fell 0.1 percent to $0.6352, while three-year bond futures fell 5 ticks to 96.08 as Governor Michele Bullock retracted market pricing of two more rate cuts this year at the press conference.

‘I want to be very clear that today’s decision does not mean that future rate cuts will come along the lines suggested by the market,’ said Bullock, who later described market pricing as “unrealistic.”

‘The Committee needs more data that inflation continues to fall before making decisions about the future,’ he added.

The board, which opened the door to a rate cut in December, warned that the decline in inflation could stall if monetary policy was loosened too much too soon.

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Disagreement with supreme leader: Sirajuddin Haqqani yet to return Afghanistan

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Reliable sources have said that Taliban Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani has not returned to Afghanistan after about a month. This is while the spokesperson of the Taliban 14 days ago said that Haqqani has returned to the country after the end of his trip from UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Taliban has not published any news about Sirajuddin Haqqani’s activities in the past few weeks.

Two sources told Harici that the reason for Haqqani’s return is “dissatisfaction with the unilateral decisions” of the Taliban leader.

The Taliban announced a month ago that Sirajuddin Haqqani went to the United Arab Emirates together with Abdul Haq Wasiq, the head of the group’s intelligence.

Abbas Stanekzai, the political deputy of the Taliban’s foreign ministry, was also forced to leave Afghanistan and seek refuge in the United Arab Emirates due to criticism of the Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s policies, especially regarding women’s education.

According to reports, Haqqani and Stanekzai are part of the pragmatic figures of the Taliban who are worried about the consequences of the Taliban leader’s decisions.

Haqqani is unhappy with Taliban leader’s decision on girls education and women’s work

A source told Harici that Haqqani is unhappy with the Taliban leader’s orders regarding the education of women and girls.

He added that Haqqani also considers the transfer of special forces, weapons and other military equipment to Kandahar as Akhundzada’s attempt to concentrate power and isolate influential figures of the Taliban.

In a new move, Akhundzada has ordered the transfer of the 313rd Badr Army Corps, which was under the influence of the Haqqani network, to Kandahar, which has increased the scope of disputes between Haqqani and Akhundzada.

It is said that Akhundzada removed Azizuddin, the former commander of Badr and the brother of the Minister of Interior, from the leadership of this unit after being summoned to Kandahar.

The Taliban leader has also dismissed Kandahar’s security commander, who was in charge of the interior minister’s responsibilities, in Haqqani’s absence, and appointed a new commander in his place.

By changing the positions under Sirajuddin Haqqani, Hebatullah Akhundzada has shown that he has the first and last word in determining the government of this group. Akhundzada recently appointed Maulvi Abdul Ahad Taleb, one of his trusted people, as the police commander of Kandahar. It seems that this designation has been made to protect the Taliban leader as much as possible against threats such as internal coups and ISIS attacks.

Haqqani and Stanekzai in Dubai, but Mullah Baradar in Doha

A credible source told Harici that Sirajuddin Haqqani lives in the United Arab Emirates with his mother, who is an Arab.

On his trip to Dubai, after meeting with the officials of this country, Haqqani went to Saudi Arabia to perform Umrah. He already went to Umran once but gong for the second time in one year could be described as an unusual decision.

On December 27, the UN Security Council announced that Mullah Baradar, the economic deputy of the Taliban prime minister, had traveled to Qatar for a one-month treatment.

The frequent and non-returning trips of senior Taliban officials in recent months have strengthened the speculations that the dissatisfaction in the Taliban group is increasing.

Earlier this year, the United Nations Security Council issued a travel ban waiver for three high-ranking Taliban officials to travel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for religious and diplomatic purposes.

In the meantime, the aforementioned committee approved the exemption of Sirajuddin Haqqani’s travel on the second day of this year and allowed him to travel to Saudi Arabia from the 3rd to the 14th of the month to perform Umrah.

The UN Security Council also approved Mullah Baradar’s travel exemption for one month and he left for Qatar. Mullah Baradar met with the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar in Doha last week.

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Afghan refugees: Between violence and misery from Iran to Pakistan

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Thousands of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran are in misery and under the pressure of the violent behavior of the police of these countries. These asylum seekers, who have sought refuge in these two countries due to the fear of Taliban retaliation, increasing poverty and unemployment, and pursuing immigration cases to Western countries, are highly exposed to violence and forced deportation.

The police of Iran and Pakistan arrest, torture and deport hundreds of people every day and in this process, they blackmail them and ignore their rights to stay as a refugee in respective countries and humiliated their dignity.

The immigrants who have taken refuge in these two countries say that they do not have any kind of legal immunity and police forcefully and violently deport them whenever they want. Some refugees were deported even with the legal stay documents, and there is no accountable institution to hear their voices.

Some asylum seekers, who work in Iran, say that their employers sometimes do not pay their salaries and threaten to hand them over to the police if they demand their salaries.

After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, thousands of Afghans, who have sought refuge in Iran and Pakistan due to the fear of Taliban revenge, increasing poverty and unemployment, and pursuing immigration cases in Western countries, are severely facing the violent behavior of the police of these two countries and say that their lives and property are not protected in these countries.

According to them, Afghan refugees in these two countries are severely discriminated, oppressed and misbehaved, and the police of Iran and Pakistan, despite extortion and blackmail, forcefully and violently deport them.

Pakistani police even mistreat even Afghans who have legal stay doucments 

Farkhunda, one of the Afghan refugees, said that the Pakistani government should treat the Afghans in Pakistan like citizens of other countries who travel to this country with visas and legal documents.

“We traveled to Pakistan with a visa,” she says. We experienced a lot of pain in our homeland and we came to Pakistan with hope. We are Muslims and Pakistanis are also Muslims, so we expect them to treat us as Muslims as Mulims are brother and sister to each other.”

Another Afghan refugee in Pakistan, Ajmal said that he is fed up with the pressure of the Pakistani police. He furthered: “All our words are about the Pakistani police. Women, men and children all talk about the police and think about them. Police behavior is inhumane.”

On the one hand, people’s spirits are ruined due to the suspension of their cases, and on the other hand, the police have made their times bitter. “They (police) all come around every day and now they go around in plain clothes, which makes the situation more complicated and makes it difficult to identify them. We don’t know what to do.”

Meanwhile, following the suspension of the US refugee program, Pakistan has intensified the pressure on Afghan refugees who have gone to this country to process their immigration cases.

Pakistan Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif has recently ordered that Afghan Identity Card (ACC) holders should immediately leave Islamabad and Rawalpindi and be deported to Afghanistan along with other undocumented migrants.

According to the order of Sharif, Afghan immigrants who have gone to this country for resettlement in third countries, must leave these two states by March 31, 2025.

Afghans working in different Iranian companies complain of not receiving their wages

Meanwhile, a number of Afghan refugees who work in different cities of Iran say that in addition to the discriminatory and violent behavior of the police, they also face abuse from their employers.

According to them, Iranian employers in some areas do not pay their wages at the end of the month and warn that if they ask for their salaries, they will be handed over to the police to be fired. These asylum seekers remain silent because of the fear to be deported back to Afghanistan.

One of the asylum seekers in Iran, who does not want to be named, says that more than 10 million Iranian money of his salary remained with his Iranian employer, which has not been paid to yet.

“Imagine a person with all the problems, leaving his/her homeland, and being away from his parents and children, going through countless sufferings, and after going through many dangers, such as a car overturning and passing through difficult obstacles, he arrives in Iran. Enduring all this suffering and working from eight in the morning to five in the evening, he sweats with pox-ridden hands in the scorching heat of summer and the cold of winter, but in the end, the Iranian employer does not even pay his meager salary,” he lamented.

On the other hand, Afghan refugees in Iran, in addition to forced deportation, are also prohibited from employment in many jobs in this country. Iranian authorities have ordered employers to refrain from hiring Afghan immigrant citizens in various jobs and only employ them in a few sectors such as construction and hard work.

Also, shops and restaurants that employ non-Iranian workers will be closed.

Earlier, the International Organization for Migration reported that from January to December 2024, more than 1.2 million migrants returned to Afghanistan, of which 67pc were deported. According to this organization, approximately four million Afghan citizens have sought refuge in Iran, but Iranian officials claim that the number of these migrants reaches eight million.

Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran face many problems. Many families do not have the ability to send their children to schools and universities and are not recruited in government institutions. According to the refugees, in the last three years, thousands of migrant children have been deprived of education and live in complete uncertainty. They expect that the western countries, especially the United States, will not leave them in this situation and take action to evacuate them in other countries.

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