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‘Blinken’s visit showed that the US is in favor of maintaining the status quo’

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During his meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the US and China had made “progress” towards stabilizing their deepening bilateral relationship.

Xi’s remarks were interpreted as the strongest signal so far of a thaw in Beijing and Washington’s increasingly acrimonious relations.

At the Great Hall of the People, in a long-delayed meeting with Blinken, the first US Secretary of State to visit Beijing since 2018, Xi said whether China and the US can get along “bears on the future and destiny of humanity.”

Emphasizing that the two countries should properly handle China-US relations with a sense of responsibility for history, for the people and for the world, Xi added that the two sides “have made progress and reached an agreement on some specific issues” in extensive talks between top Chinese officials and Blinken.

Speaking to reporters during a visit to California on Monday, US President Joe Biden also stated that Blinken did a “hell of a job” in China, adding that “we are on the right trail.”

Blinken told journalists after the meeting that he recognized that both countries have “an obligation and responsibility to manage this relationship.”

“It was clear coming in that the relationship was at a point of instability and both sides recognized the need to work to stabilize it,” Blinken said, adding that this meant “establishing better lines of communication to make sure that the competition does not veer into conflict.”

On the other hand, Blinken emphasized during the meeting that the US is not seeking a new Cold War and not trying to change China’s system. It was also noteworthy that Blinken stated that Washington does not support Taiwan’s independence.

Blinken also told Xi that the US side looks forward to building high-level relations with the Chinese side, maintaining open lines of communication, managing differences responsibly, and continuing dialogue, exchange and cooperation.

The sides described the talks as “long, sincere, in-depth and constructive”. From now on, the two countries are expected to increase high-level interactions, including visits by ministerial-level officials.

Many question marks

Commenting on Blinken’s visit, Dr. Hüseyin Korkmaz, an expert on international security studies, said that the meetings raised many questions.

Dr. Korkmaz emphasized that although the statements emphasized “hours of cordial talks”, no concrete results came out of these meetings and this was reflected in the statements.

“It seems that the main goal of the US in relations with China is to continue the ‘strategic rivalry without veering into conflict’,” Korkmaz said, adding that with Blinken’s visit, the US has shown an attitude in favor of the continuation of the status quo in both bilateral relations and the Taiwan issue.

Noting that Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s affirmation that relations were at a “low point” and his subsequent statement that the Taiwan issue was a “big risk” appeared to be a serious warning, Korkmaz recalled the words of senior Chinese diplomat Wang, “Stop exaggerating the China threat theory”, and stated that China adopted a tough discourse in this context.

A temporary hiatus

According to Korkmaz, “the US-China rivalry cannot long endure a temporary respite, fortified by a cold peace”.

“China believes that the US is trying to stifle its development with its ‘encirclement’ strategy, while the US sees China as a revisionist-leaning country with aggressive military growth. The US, on the other hand, perceives China as a revisionist power with an aggressive military growth and, more importantly, as a ‘threat’ for the last 5 years.”

Pointing out that it is difficult for Blinken’s visit to contribute to a thaw in relations, Dr. Hüseyin Korkmaz said that both sides would prefer a “protracted rivalry” by trying to maintain their positions from now on.

According to Korkmaz, rather than a cold peace, which the US expects, this situation may turn into a “hybrid cold war” in which traditional and non-traditional methods are used together.

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

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Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

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Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

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London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

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