Diplomacy
‘Blinken’s visit showed that the US is in favor of maintaining the status quo’

During his meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the US and China had made “progress” towards stabilizing their deepening bilateral relationship.
Xi’s remarks were interpreted as the strongest signal so far of a thaw in Beijing and Washington’s increasingly acrimonious relations.
At the Great Hall of the People, in a long-delayed meeting with Blinken, the first US Secretary of State to visit Beijing since 2018, Xi said whether China and the US can get along “bears on the future and destiny of humanity.”
Emphasizing that the two countries should properly handle China-US relations with a sense of responsibility for history, for the people and for the world, Xi added that the two sides “have made progress and reached an agreement on some specific issues” in extensive talks between top Chinese officials and Blinken.
Speaking to reporters during a visit to California on Monday, US President Joe Biden also stated that Blinken did a “hell of a job” in China, adding that “we are on the right trail.”
Blinken told journalists after the meeting that he recognized that both countries have “an obligation and responsibility to manage this relationship.”
“It was clear coming in that the relationship was at a point of instability and both sides recognized the need to work to stabilize it,” Blinken said, adding that this meant “establishing better lines of communication to make sure that the competition does not veer into conflict.”
On the other hand, Blinken emphasized during the meeting that the US is not seeking a new Cold War and not trying to change China’s system. It was also noteworthy that Blinken stated that Washington does not support Taiwan’s independence.
Blinken also told Xi that the US side looks forward to building high-level relations with the Chinese side, maintaining open lines of communication, managing differences responsibly, and continuing dialogue, exchange and cooperation.
The sides described the talks as “long, sincere, in-depth and constructive”. From now on, the two countries are expected to increase high-level interactions, including visits by ministerial-level officials.
Many question marks
Commenting on Blinken’s visit, Dr. Hüseyin Korkmaz, an expert on international security studies, said that the meetings raised many questions.
Dr. Korkmaz emphasized that although the statements emphasized “hours of cordial talks”, no concrete results came out of these meetings and this was reflected in the statements.
“It seems that the main goal of the US in relations with China is to continue the ‘strategic rivalry without veering into conflict’,” Korkmaz said, adding that with Blinken’s visit, the US has shown an attitude in favor of the continuation of the status quo in both bilateral relations and the Taiwan issue.
Noting that Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s affirmation that relations were at a “low point” and his subsequent statement that the Taiwan issue was a “big risk” appeared to be a serious warning, Korkmaz recalled the words of senior Chinese diplomat Wang, “Stop exaggerating the China threat theory”, and stated that China adopted a tough discourse in this context.
A temporary hiatus
According to Korkmaz, “the US-China rivalry cannot long endure a temporary respite, fortified by a cold peace”.
“China believes that the US is trying to stifle its development with its ‘encirclement’ strategy, while the US sees China as a revisionist-leaning country with aggressive military growth. The US, on the other hand, perceives China as a revisionist power with an aggressive military growth and, more importantly, as a ‘threat’ for the last 5 years.”
Pointing out that it is difficult for Blinken’s visit to contribute to a thaw in relations, Dr. Hüseyin Korkmaz said that both sides would prefer a “protracted rivalry” by trying to maintain their positions from now on.
According to Korkmaz, rather than a cold peace, which the US expects, this situation may turn into a “hybrid cold war” in which traditional and non-traditional methods are used together.
Diplomacy
Armenia signals potential complete withdrawal from CSTO

Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan announced that Yerevan might decide to withdraw entirely from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if member states fail to “demonstrate a clear political stance” regarding Azerbaijan’s actions. Kostanyan emphasized that Armenia is no longer making insinuations but is speaking very openly.
According to the Novosti-Armenia news agency, Kostanyan stated, “Ultimately, if our partners in the CSTO, including the Russian Federation, do not make the political statements that were mentioned several years ago after the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, then Armenia will make a final decision.”
The Deputy Minister also underscored that Armenia, as a sovereign state, will determine the right time for its next steps.
Membership was frozen
Relations between Armenia, Russia, and the CSTO deteriorated following the conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, after which Yerevan formally requested support from its allies.
Following this process, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan repeatedly criticized the CSTO for not assisting Yerevan.
Pashinyan described the organization as a “bubble alliance,” claiming it was “planning a war” against Armenia alongside Baku.
Last February, Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that Armenia had frozen its participation in the CSTO. By May, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the country would refuse to finance the organization’s activities.
Intelligence report points in the same direction
In January of this year, a public report released by the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that the country has no intention of returning to full participation in the CSTO in the near future.
The report noted, “We find it highly unlikely that the reasons that led to Armenia suspending its membership will change in 2025. Based on this situation, the organization’s prestige continues to be seriously questioned and has become a ’cause for reflection’ for other member countries.”
Diplomacy
BRICS internal trade volume hits the $1 trillion mark

Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), announced that the internal trade volume among BRICS countries has reached $1 trillion.
In a statement on his Telegram channel, Dmitriev noted that surpassing this significant milestone confirms the strengthening of economic ties between member states and the bloc’s growing role in shaping the new global economic architecture.
He also emphasized that Russia continues to strengthen trade relations, particularly through the BRICS Business Council, in line with the directives of President Vladimir Putin.
BRICS’ share will continue to grow, Putin says
During a plenary session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled that at the beginning of the 21st century, BRICS countries accounted for only one-fifth of the global economy, whereas today this figure has reached 40%.
The Russian leader stated that this share will continue to grow, describing it as a “medical fact.” According to Putin, this growth will primarily be driven by the countries of the Global South.
In April, Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, also said that the BRICS countries, operating on principles of consensus, have become a key force in the world economy.
BRICS expansion agenda
Initially composed of five countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—BRICS expanded in 2024 with the inclusion of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
In January of this year, Indonesia became the bloc’s tenth full member.
Diplomacy
Xi Jinping to miss BRICS summit in Rio for the first time

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.
According to multiple sources cited by the South China Morning Post on Tuesday, this marks the first time Xi will miss the gathering of leaders from major emerging economies.
Officials familiar with the matter stated that Beijing informed the Brazilian government of a scheduling conflict. Premier Li Qiang is expected to lead the Chinese delegation in Xi’s place, a similar arrangement to the 2023 G20 summit in India.
Chinese officials involved in the preparations suggested Xi’s absence is due to his two meetings with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva within the past year. The first occurred during the G20 summit and a state visit to Brasília last November, while the second took place at the China-CELAC forum in Beijing this May.
Xi has never before missed a BRICS summit. In 2023, he was scheduled to deliver a speech at the meeting in South Africa but, at the last minute, sent Commerce Minister Wang Wentao instead. Beijing provided no official explanation for the change.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Xi participated in BRICS meetings virtually, with Russia hosting in 2020 and China in 2021.
On Tuesday, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry told the Post it “would not comment on the internal deliberations of foreign delegations.” The Chinese embassy in Brazil did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, “information regarding participation in the summit will be shared at the appropriate time.” Guo added that China supports Brazil’s BRICS presidency and aims to “promote deeper cooperation” among member nations. “In a volatile and turbulent world, the BRICS countries are maintaining their strategic resolve and working together for global peace, stability, and development,” he said.
In Brasília, officials have not concealed their disappointment regarding Xi’s absence. A source informed the Post that Lula had traveled to Beijing in May as a “show of goodwill” and had hoped “the Chinese president would reciprocate the gesture by attending the Rio summit.”
There was also speculation that Lula’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner after the BRICS summit may have influenced Beijing’s decision, as Xi might have been “perceived as a supporting actor” at the event.
Lula’s special adviser for international relations, Celso Amorim, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, where he clearly expressed Brazil’s desire to host Xi. “I told them, ‘BRICS without China is not BRICS,'” Amorim stated, recalling that then-President Hu Jintao attended the first BRICS summit in Brazil despite a major earthquake in China at the time. “He only stayed for one day, but he came.”
Amorim emphasized the particular importance of Xi’s attendance in the current global context, citing the “US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization” as a “violation of international rules.”
Premier Li is expected to arrive in Brazil next weekend for the summit, which is scheduled for July 6 and 7 in Rio.
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