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Saudi Arabia and Israel – uneasy path toward normalization

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Since the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as new prime minister of Israel, he has made it clear that he wants to have a peace with Saudi Arabia and this is one of his high agenda. But what Saudi Arabia is thinking. Many say Saudi has no desire to normalize ties with Israel at the moment and it is also not a priority of Saudi officials. Also Saudi Arabia is no longer facing some obstacles due to some policies with Israel that might have existed in the past.

However, Israel has long sought to normalize relations with Arabic countries, especially Saudi Arabia. This country apparently pursues two goals by normalizing relations with Arab countries: first, marginalizing the Palestinian issue from the attention of Arab countries; second, controlling the influence of Iran and its proxy groups in the Middle East.

Israel has intensified efforts to mend ties with gulf countries since 2015 with the support of the then US president Donald Trump.

The US has been trying to act as a facilitating force that finally leads to a deal in September 2020. The Ibrahim agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was signed in the White House with the efforts of Donald Trump.

The purpose of signing this agreement was to normalize the relationship between the two mentioned countries with Israel. Meanwhile, Morocco and Sudan took steps to normalize relations with Israel in light of the terms of this agreement. But Saudi Arabia refused to join the said treaty and put conditions and restrictions at the feet of the US and Israel.

Normalization is possible

Now the incumbent US president Joe Biden wants to finish making a U-turn to conclude his predecessor’s mission to mend ties between Saudi and Israel. For this purpose, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on June 6 and had a conversation with the crown prince Mohammed bin-Salman.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets US President Joe Biden, with a fist bump after his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022.

The normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel was one of the main points of discussion between the parties.

The main question is whether it is an easy process to normalize the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel in short or longer terms.

The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could be possible, but not in the time frame that the Biden administration expects. Biden wants to achieve this goal by 2024 to use it as an important achievement in the election campaigns. But there are a series of factors that make the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv not possible anytime soon.

The common enemy

Enmity with Iran was one of the reasons for the normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel as both the countries saw Iran as a common enemy and did not accept the presence of this country and its proxies in the region.

But at the same time what made Israel more aware of the necessity of normalizing relations with Arab countries was the signing of the JCPOA; The factor that called the Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to normalize relations with Israel was Iran’s support for the Arab uprisings in 2011 and naming it as “Islamic Awakening”.

Normalization of ties between Saudi and Israel further become focal point after the defeat of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the growing seriousness of Iran’s proxy forces in the region, the start of the war in Yemen in 2015, the risk of increasing Iran’s missile power, the creation of a rift in the Persian Gulf Council after the economic blockade of Qatar in 2017.

Of course, Trump as a US president was a great gain for Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel, where these three countries tried to convince Trump to unilaterally cancel the JCPOA.

But now the relationship between Saudi and Iran is not the same as it was in 2015. Now, after the signing of the friendship treaty between Riyadh and Tehran with the mediation of China, the danger of a common enemy calling Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations has been removed.

Saudi and Iran no longer see each other as an enemy, and this relation could further improve in the future.

US and Israel ignoring Saudi Arabia’s demand 

Apparently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will not simply agree on normalization of relations with Israel and surely will place some conditions and restrictions. The Emirates and Bahrain accepted Ibrahim’s pact unconditionally, but Saudi Arabia set conditions and did not accept it.

Saudi Arabia’s demands from the US would be such as the right to have a peaceful nuclear program, receiving advanced military equipment from the US and not accusing Saudi Arabia of violating human rights, especially in the case of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a well known journalist.

What is clear is that Biden’s team does not follow the wishes of Saudi Arabia. For example, Trump had signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to sell advanced weapons at a cost of more than $8 billion, but Biden suspended the process.

The US was also supposed to sell 50 F35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates after joining the Ibrahim Pact, but Biden refused to implement it. This comes despite the fact that Trump during his tenure at office had acted against the decision of the Congress in the field of selling advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Saudi no more eyes on US’s support

Biden also seems serious about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and blamed the King of Saudi for his murder. During his election campaigns in 2020, Biden accused Saudi officials of being involved in Khashoggi’s murder and said that Riyadh should pay for this crime. During his visit to Saudi Arabia on July 15 last year, Biden was not welcomed by any special ceremonies from the Saudi authorities.

Many say Biden was almost not welcomed in Saudi Arabia because of his frank tone regarding the case of Khashoggi’s murder, which has greatly annoyed the Saudi authorities.

Relations between US and Saudi Arabia further deteriorated after the Ukraine war when the US wanted more oil from Saudi which faced rejections. Considering these points, it does not seem that Riyadh officials will achieve a great achievement from the reelection of Biden in the 2024 presidential elections. Biden might also fail to normalize ties between Saudi and Israel as the only foreign policy achievement to use it during an election campaign.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s demand from Israel is to agree to stop the settlement policy and form an independent state in the name of Palestine. Israel has always welcomed the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, but it does not seem to pay attention to this request of the Saudi authorities.

DIPLOMACY

TÜDAV proposes Aegean cooperation between Türkiye and Greece

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As a result of the Athens Declaration on Friendly Relations and Good Neighborhood signed between Mitsotakis and President Erdoğan during his last visit to Greece, both sides declared that they were determined to maintain friendly relations and peaceful coexistence.

During President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s last visit to Athens, the stage was set for a crucial dialogue aimed at thawing the frosty relations between Türkiye and Greece. In a recent follow-up meeting in Ankara, Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis continue their discussions, focusing on enhancing bilateral cooperation, particularly in the strategic and often contentious Aegean Sea. This series of high-level talks marks a significant effort by both nations to bridge divides, address longstanding disputes, and promote regional stability through collaborative initiatives in the Aegean, heralding a new era of cooperation between the two neighboring countries.

However, previously both sides also gave the message that it was not possible to expect the controversial issues between the two countries to be resolved in a short time. Finally, Greece announced that it would declare 2 marine parks, one in the Ionian Sea and the other in the Sea of Islands, in order to protect biodiversity and marine ecology within the scope of the 9th Our Ocean Conference (OOC) held in Athens on 16-17 April.

In line with these efforts, the Turkish Marine Research Foundation (TÜDAV) has proposed that both countries work together to establish marine parks in the Aegean Sea. This policy recommendation aims to not only protect the rich biodiversity of the region but also to strengthen environmental and scientific collaboration between Türkiye and Greece, setting a precedent for cooperative governance of shared marine resources.

In its statement on the subject, TÜDAV argued that Türkiye and Greece should cooperate to protect the Aegean Sea. TÜDAV scientists stated that cooperation is needed to primarily protect the four conservation or marine park areas proposed in the Aegean Sea, emphasizing that the Aegean Sea is a sea whose biodiversity has been under threat recently due to factors such as pollution, overfishing, alien species and climate change. Prof. Öztürk believes that Türkiye and Greece, two countries with mutual coasts, should cooperate.

Reminding that the two countries signed a cooperation agreement on environmental problems in 2000, within the framework of bilateral cooperation studies that started in 1988, TUDAV proposes four marine protected areas in the Aegean Sea and proposes cooperation for the declaration of these areas and the establishment of a joint working group on this issue.

Map 1. Areas in the Aegean Sea that are proposed to be jointly declared as marine protected areas or marine parks by the two countries

Stating that according to the Protocol on Specially Protected Areas and Biological Diversity in the Mediterranean of the Barcelona Convention, to which both countries are parties, the parties should call for cooperation before one of the two coastal countries declares a protected area, TÜDAV points out that the two countries have the legal basis for cooperation.

TÜDAV Chairman of the Board and Istanbul University Faculty of Aquatic Sciences Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Bayram Öztürk said, “Sincere cooperation on marine protection in the Aegean Open Sea will benefit both nations. In this way, 30% protection of coasts and seas can be achieved by 2030. In 2013, Türkiye declared an area larger than the island of Cyprus, the Finike Submarine Mountains region, as a protected area. This area is the only open sea protected area in the Eastern Mediterranean and efforts are made to protect approximately 40 marine species. “The same thing can be done jointly in the Aegean Sea.” he said. Öztürk underlined that the Aegean Sea does not belong to a single country and said that cooperation should be made to protect biological diversity and living resources.

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US overtakes China as Germany’s biggest trading partner

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The United States overtook China as Germany’s most important trading partner in the first quarter of this year, according to Reuters calculations based on official data from the Federal Statistical Office.

According to the data, Germany’s trade with the United States, the sum of exports and imports, totalled 63 billion euros ($68 billion) in the January-March period, while the figure for China was just under 60 billion euros.

With a volume of 253 billion euros, China was Germany’s largest trading partner for the eighth time in a row, a few hundred million dollars ahead of the US.

“While German exports to the US continued to rise due to the strong economy there, both exports to and imports from China fell,” said Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer, explaining the change in the first quarter.

“China has moved up the value chain and is increasingly producing more complex goods itself, which it used to import from Germany. German companies are also increasingly producing locally instead of exporting goods from Germany to China,” Stamer said.

Germany has said it wants to reduce its trade with China, citing political differences and accusing Beijing of “unfair practices”. But Berlin has yet to take any major steps towards a policy of reducing dependency.

German imports of goods from China fell by almost 12 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, while German exports to China fell by just over 1 per cent, according to Juergen Matthes of the German economic institute IW.

“The fact that the US economy exceeded expectations, while the Chinese economy performed worse than many had hoped, probably contributed to this,” Matthes said.

Sales to the US currently account for around 10 percent of German goods exports. China’s share, on the other hand, has fallen below 6 per cent, Matthes said.

On the other hand, Dirk Jandura, head of the BGA trade association, said: “If the White House administration changes after the US elections in November and moves further in the direction of closing markets, this process could come to a standstill,” pointing out that the trend of Germany’s trade route shifting across the Atlantic could stop.

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BOTAŞ signs LNG deal with ExxonMobil

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Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said state-owned gas network operator BOTAŞ signed an LNG trade agreement with ExxonMobil on Wednesday in a bid to diversify its sources.

Bayraktar said in a statement on social media platform X: “The US is one of the important countries from which we already receive LNG. With this agreement, which is intended to be long-term, we will take another step towards diversifying our resources,” Bayraktar said, adding that the agreement was signed in Washington.

Noting that Turkey is among the few countries in the world with its gasification capacity, the minister said, “We will continue to contribute to the energy security of our country and our region.

Bayraktar gave no further details of the deal. The energy ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

In an interview with the Financial Times in late April, Bayraktar said Turkey wanted to “build a new supply portfolio” in energy procurement and said it was in talks with US fossil fuel giant Exxon Mobil for 2.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth about $1.1 billion.

Bayraktar said Turkey was also in talks with other US natural gas producers for LNG deals, stressing that Turkey wanted to “diversify” its natural gas supplies before some of its contracts with Russia expire in 2025 and with Iran in 2026.

In addition to Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, Turkey imports LNG from Algeria, Qatar, the US and Nigeria.

Russia is the country’s largest gas supplier. Last year, more than 40 per cent of its consumption was met with gas from that country.

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