Diplomacy
Saudi Arabia and Israel – uneasy path toward normalization
Since the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as new prime minister of Israel, he has made it clear that he wants to have a peace with Saudi Arabia and this is one of his high agenda. But what Saudi Arabia is thinking. Many say Saudi has no desire to normalize ties with Israel at the moment and it is also not a priority of Saudi officials. Also Saudi Arabia is no longer facing some obstacles due to some policies with Israel that might have existed in the past.
However, Israel has long sought to normalize relations with Arabic countries, especially Saudi Arabia. This country apparently pursues two goals by normalizing relations with Arab countries: first, marginalizing the Palestinian issue from the attention of Arab countries; second, controlling the influence of Iran and its proxy groups in the Middle East.
Israel has intensified efforts to mend ties with gulf countries since 2015 with the support of the then US president Donald Trump.
The US has been trying to act as a facilitating force that finally leads to a deal in September 2020. The Ibrahim agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was signed in the White House with the efforts of Donald Trump.
The purpose of signing this agreement was to normalize the relationship between the two mentioned countries with Israel. Meanwhile, Morocco and Sudan took steps to normalize relations with Israel in light of the terms of this agreement. But Saudi Arabia refused to join the said treaty and put conditions and restrictions at the feet of the US and Israel.
Normalization is possible
Now the incumbent US president Joe Biden wants to finish making a U-turn to conclude his predecessor’s mission to mend ties between Saudi and Israel. For this purpose, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on June 6 and had a conversation with the crown prince Mohammed bin-Salman.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets US President Joe Biden, with a fist bump after his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022.
The normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel was one of the main points of discussion between the parties.
The main question is whether it is an easy process to normalize the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel in short or longer terms.
The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could be possible, but not in the time frame that the Biden administration expects. Biden wants to achieve this goal by 2024 to use it as an important achievement in the election campaigns. But there are a series of factors that make the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv not possible anytime soon.
The common enemy
Enmity with Iran was one of the reasons for the normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel as both the countries saw Iran as a common enemy and did not accept the presence of this country and its proxies in the region.
But at the same time what made Israel more aware of the necessity of normalizing relations with Arab countries was the signing of the JCPOA; The factor that called the Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to normalize relations with Israel was Iran’s support for the Arab uprisings in 2011 and naming it as “Islamic Awakening”.
Normalization of ties between Saudi and Israel further become focal point after the defeat of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the growing seriousness of Iran’s proxy forces in the region, the start of the war in Yemen in 2015, the risk of increasing Iran’s missile power, the creation of a rift in the Persian Gulf Council after the economic blockade of Qatar in 2017.
Of course, Trump as a US president was a great gain for Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel, where these three countries tried to convince Trump to unilaterally cancel the JCPOA.
But now the relationship between Saudi and Iran is not the same as it was in 2015. Now, after the signing of the friendship treaty between Riyadh and Tehran with the mediation of China, the danger of a common enemy calling Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations has been removed.
Saudi and Iran no longer see each other as an enemy, and this relation could further improve in the future.
US and Israel ignoring Saudi Arabia’s demand
Apparently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will not simply agree on normalization of relations with Israel and surely will place some conditions and restrictions. The Emirates and Bahrain accepted Ibrahim’s pact unconditionally, but Saudi Arabia set conditions and did not accept it.
Saudi Arabia’s demands from the US would be such as the right to have a peaceful nuclear program, receiving advanced military equipment from the US and not accusing Saudi Arabia of violating human rights, especially in the case of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a well known journalist.
What is clear is that Biden’s team does not follow the wishes of Saudi Arabia. For example, Trump had signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to sell advanced weapons at a cost of more than $8 billion, but Biden suspended the process.
The US was also supposed to sell 50 F35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates after joining the Ibrahim Pact, but Biden refused to implement it. This comes despite the fact that Trump during his tenure at office had acted against the decision of the Congress in the field of selling advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Saudi no more eyes on US’s support
Biden also seems serious about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and blamed the King of Saudi for his murder. During his election campaigns in 2020, Biden accused Saudi officials of being involved in Khashoggi’s murder and said that Riyadh should pay for this crime. During his visit to Saudi Arabia on July 15 last year, Biden was not welcomed by any special ceremonies from the Saudi authorities.
Many say Biden was almost not welcomed in Saudi Arabia because of his frank tone regarding the case of Khashoggi’s murder, which has greatly annoyed the Saudi authorities.
Relations between US and Saudi Arabia further deteriorated after the Ukraine war when the US wanted more oil from Saudi which faced rejections. Considering these points, it does not seem that Riyadh officials will achieve a great achievement from the reelection of Biden in the 2024 presidential elections. Biden might also fail to normalize ties between Saudi and Israel as the only foreign policy achievement to use it during an election campaign.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s demand from Israel is to agree to stop the settlement policy and form an independent state in the name of Palestine. Israel has always welcomed the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, but it does not seem to pay attention to this request of the Saudi authorities.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
-
Asia2 weeks agoIran conflict accelerates yuan adoption and record CIPS volumes in global oil trade
-
Asia2 weeks agoXi and Putin deepen partnership with call for ‘multipolar world’
-
Europe2 weeks agoFive EU states push gradual single market access for Western Balkans
-
Middle East1 week agoLeaked documents show IRGC routed Chinese military equipment through UAE
-
Europe1 week agoFrench justice minister calls for three-year halt to legal immigration
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoNATO weighs Hormuz security mission if Iran blockade remains in place by July
-
Middle East1 week agoIran says Hormuz transit will remain free but ships must cover operational costs
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany initiates diplomatic contact with France’s National Rally ahead of presidential election
