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Saudi Arabia and Israel – uneasy path toward normalization

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Since the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as new prime minister of Israel, he has made it clear that he wants to have a peace with Saudi Arabia and this is one of his high agenda. But what Saudi Arabia is thinking. Many say Saudi has no desire to normalize ties with Israel at the moment and it is also not a priority of Saudi officials. Also Saudi Arabia is no longer facing some obstacles due to some policies with Israel that might have existed in the past.

However, Israel has long sought to normalize relations with Arabic countries, especially Saudi Arabia. This country apparently pursues two goals by normalizing relations with Arab countries: first, marginalizing the Palestinian issue from the attention of Arab countries; second, controlling the influence of Iran and its proxy groups in the Middle East.

Israel has intensified efforts to mend ties with gulf countries since 2015 with the support of the then US president Donald Trump.

The US has been trying to act as a facilitating force that finally leads to a deal in September 2020. The Ibrahim agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was signed in the White House with the efforts of Donald Trump.

The purpose of signing this agreement was to normalize the relationship between the two mentioned countries with Israel. Meanwhile, Morocco and Sudan took steps to normalize relations with Israel in light of the terms of this agreement. But Saudi Arabia refused to join the said treaty and put conditions and restrictions at the feet of the US and Israel.

Normalization is possible

Now the incumbent US president Joe Biden wants to finish making a U-turn to conclude his predecessor’s mission to mend ties between Saudi and Israel. For this purpose, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on June 6 and had a conversation with the crown prince Mohammed bin-Salman.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets US President Joe Biden, with a fist bump after his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022.

The normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel was one of the main points of discussion between the parties.

The main question is whether it is an easy process to normalize the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel in short or longer terms.

The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could be possible, but not in the time frame that the Biden administration expects. Biden wants to achieve this goal by 2024 to use it as an important achievement in the election campaigns. But there are a series of factors that make the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv not possible anytime soon.

The common enemy

Enmity with Iran was one of the reasons for the normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel as both the countries saw Iran as a common enemy and did not accept the presence of this country and its proxies in the region.

But at the same time what made Israel more aware of the necessity of normalizing relations with Arab countries was the signing of the JCPOA; The factor that called the Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to normalize relations with Israel was Iran’s support for the Arab uprisings in 2011 and naming it as “Islamic Awakening”.

Normalization of ties between Saudi and Israel further become focal point after the defeat of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the growing seriousness of Iran’s proxy forces in the region, the start of the war in Yemen in 2015, the risk of increasing Iran’s missile power, the creation of a rift in the Persian Gulf Council after the economic blockade of Qatar in 2017.

Of course, Trump as a US president was a great gain for Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel, where these three countries tried to convince Trump to unilaterally cancel the JCPOA.

But now the relationship between Saudi and Iran is not the same as it was in 2015. Now, after the signing of the friendship treaty between Riyadh and Tehran with the mediation of China, the danger of a common enemy calling Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations has been removed.

Saudi and Iran no longer see each other as an enemy, and this relation could further improve in the future.

US and Israel ignoring Saudi Arabia’s demand 

Apparently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will not simply agree on normalization of relations with Israel and surely will place some conditions and restrictions. The Emirates and Bahrain accepted Ibrahim’s pact unconditionally, but Saudi Arabia set conditions and did not accept it.

Saudi Arabia’s demands from the US would be such as the right to have a peaceful nuclear program, receiving advanced military equipment from the US and not accusing Saudi Arabia of violating human rights, especially in the case of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a well known journalist.

What is clear is that Biden’s team does not follow the wishes of Saudi Arabia. For example, Trump had signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to sell advanced weapons at a cost of more than $8 billion, but Biden suspended the process.

The US was also supposed to sell 50 F35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates after joining the Ibrahim Pact, but Biden refused to implement it. This comes despite the fact that Trump during his tenure at office had acted against the decision of the Congress in the field of selling advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Saudi no more eyes on US’s support

Biden also seems serious about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and blamed the King of Saudi for his murder. During his election campaigns in 2020, Biden accused Saudi officials of being involved in Khashoggi’s murder and said that Riyadh should pay for this crime. During his visit to Saudi Arabia on July 15 last year, Biden was not welcomed by any special ceremonies from the Saudi authorities.

Many say Biden was almost not welcomed in Saudi Arabia because of his frank tone regarding the case of Khashoggi’s murder, which has greatly annoyed the Saudi authorities.

Relations between US and Saudi Arabia further deteriorated after the Ukraine war when the US wanted more oil from Saudi which faced rejections. Considering these points, it does not seem that Riyadh officials will achieve a great achievement from the reelection of Biden in the 2024 presidential elections. Biden might also fail to normalize ties between Saudi and Israel as the only foreign policy achievement to use it during an election campaign.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s demand from Israel is to agree to stop the settlement policy and form an independent state in the name of Palestine. Israel has always welcomed the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, but it does not seem to pay attention to this request of the Saudi authorities.

Diplomacy

CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt

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Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”

Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.

Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.

The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.

The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”

Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.

Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.

In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.

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US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact

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The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.

According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.

During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.

The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.

Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.

Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.

Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”

The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.

Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.

Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.

The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.

Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.

Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.

Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”

In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.

On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.

Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.

Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.

Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.

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Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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