Despite the assassination of senior Hezbollah leaders and the bombing in violation of the laws of war, Israel has failed to achieve its main objectives on the Lebanese front. Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel have not been prevented, nor have the residents of the north returned to their homes. Israel’s tactical successes on the ground were insufficient to achieve its strategic goals, forcing it to agree to a ceasefire.

Ahead of the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hezbollah, which is expected within hours, both parties have escalated their attacks. Opposition to the ceasefire from Israel’s far-right ministers has raised concerns that the agreement could be cancelled at the last minute.

The ceasefire agreement is anticipated to be announced by the U.S. and France today, according to several news agencies citing Lebanese, U.S., and Israeli officials. Both the Israeli and Lebanese governments are scheduled to meet beforehand to discuss the terms of the ceasefire.

The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that at least twenty-two people were killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon yesterday. Early this morning, Israel bombed southern Lebanon and targeted buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut, claiming to have killed a senior Hezbollah commander.

Hezbollah has also intensified its attacks on Israel’s northern regions. Educational activities in some areas have been suspended, and authorities announced new measures in response to the ongoing assaults.

Despite positive signals from Lebanon and the U.S., internal opposition within Israel suggests the ceasefire agreement could face last-minute hurdles. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir described the deal as a “big mistake” and a “historic missed opportunity to eliminate Hezbollah.” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented, “There is no agreement, and if it is signed, it will be worth no more than a signed piece of paper. We have dismantled Hezbollah and will continue to dismantle it.”

Criticism is not limited to far-right ministers. Members of parliament from Netanyahu’s Likud party, opposition leaders, and northern Israeli mayors have also voiced disapproval. Avi Dichter, a Likud party member and security cabinet member, stated on social media that he lacked sufficient details to support the ceasefire, adding that he would oppose it if it mirrored UNSC Resolution 1701.

David Azoulay, mayor of Metula, referred to the ceasefire as a “surrender deal” during an interview on Channel 12 television. Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona, criticized the agreement on social media, warning that it “accelerates the repetition of the 7 October attack in the north.” Stern remarked, “I don’t understand how we went from total victory to total surrender.”

Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition National Unity Party, urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to publish the full details of the agreement. Similarly, Avigdor Liberman, leader of the Israel Our Home party, labeled the deal as “terrible for Israel.”

The proposed ceasefire includes: Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within days. Beirut will deploy troops along the border, and Hezbollah fighters will retreat north of the Litani River and a U.S.-led committee will oversee the ceasefire’s implementation.

The main sticking point remains Israel’s claimed “right to self-defense.” Prime Minister Netanyahu insisted the agreement guarantee Israel’s freedom to act against Lebanon if the ceasefire is not upheld. Lebanon has firmly rejected this demand.

According to The National, a compromise formula has been proposed to address this issue: Israel would present grievances to the international committee monitoring the ceasefire, which would then relay them to the Lebanese army and UNIFIL. A deadline would be set for addressing these grievances before Israel could take further action. This proposal is still under discussion.

Notably, the agreement does not establish a buffer zone, a key objective of Israel’s ground offensive. The buffer zone was intended to keep northern Israel out of Hezbollah’s reach. Additionally, there is no clear plan for the tens of thousands of residents who fled their homes in northern Israel after 7 October.

Despite Israel’s tactical successes, including the assassination of Hezbollah leaders and the ground invasion, it has not achieved its primary war aims in Lebanon. U.S. President Donald Trump, set to take office in January, has urged Netanyahu to conclude the conflict before his inauguration. Meanwhile, the Israeli army’s morale is reportedly low due to heavy casualties and ongoing debates over conscription. Observers note that the military’s reluctance to continue fighting further complicates Israel’s strategic position.

The Israeli press has reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

According to Israeli state television KAN, the Tel Aviv government has given the green light for a ceasefire to Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, who has been mediating between Israel and Hezbollah. The report noted that Netanyahu and senior ministers held a security consultation meeting last night, during which Netanyahu approved the proposal for a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon.

Discussions reportedly centered on ensuring the freedom of movement for the Israeli army along the Syrian-Lebanese border. Israel has also received assurances from the U.S. regarding its ability to act if the agreement is violated. Unnamed Israeli sources have stated that a ceasefire announcement is expected “within two days.”

The sources further disclosed that the agreement with Lebanon has already been signed, and that Netanyahu is now focused on strategizing its announcement.

However, Michael Herzog, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, told Israel Army Radio that while progress has been made, some details of the agreement remain unresolved.

According to a report in Haaretz, the U.S.-proposed ceasefire involves a three-stage plan: an immediate ceasefire, followed by a withdrawal of Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and the initiation of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to address disputed border areas.

A U.S.-led international body will oversee the ceasefire’s implementation. Additionally, Israel expects a formal letter from Washington confirming its right to take military action if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire terms and the Lebanese army or international forces fail to act.

Regarding the public framing of the agreement, KAN reported that Netanyahu intends to present the ceasefire as a strategic victory for Israel, rather than a compromise.

Meanwhile, several Israeli media outlets have indicated that Amos Hochstein has communicated to Israel that he may withdraw from the mediation process if there is no positive response to the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal in the coming days. Netanyahu’s office informed Channel 13 that it had received Hochstein’s message but was uncertain whether it reflected an official U.S. position or an attempt to apply pressure on Israel and Lebanon.

Stock of questions arises as not only banned militants disowned targeting of innocent civilians, including women and children, who were on way to home in Kurram city of Pakistan, but also the convoy was escorted by personnel of security forces. All personnel of security forces remained safe and sound, but the helpless and innocent civilians were shot and killed for undone sin.

On Friday, gunmen opened fire on convoys of Shia pilgrims, killing at least 42 people. Women and children were among the fatalities. The gunmen targeted two separate convoys traveling with police escorts from the Khurram district headquarter of Parachinar to Peshawar.

This is not the first ever incident but firing against vehicles and killings on the pretext of sectarian tension has been lingering on since a long, but the authorities concerned who are custodians of law and order in real terms are playing sectarian rather than maintaining law and order in the area.

Retired Inspector General Police, Syed Irshad Hussian Shah is right in his words that no other than state organs are involved when the innocent civilians including women and children are being killed in presence of security forces personnel.

Similarly, only people from the Shia school of thoughts have been targeted after confirmation of their identity. Hussain Shah is a noble and decent person, and he was never witnessed in such distress as he was shown in releasing the video message. He is right in his demand for a judicial inquiry into this recent massacre, but he needs to apprise him of such type of judicial inquiries results as it is always sealed and kept away from the general public.

Shia Muslims chant slogans to condemn the killing of Shia Muslims by gunmen in an ambush in Kurram district during a demonstration in Lahore, Pakistan, on Friday (November 22, 2024). (AP)

Sectarian tension in Kurram is not new or sectarian unrest is confined to this part of the country. Couple of years ago similar massacres of Shia Hazara in Quetta city of Pakistan remained routine but the Shia people came out on roads. They denounced and held no other than custodians of law and order responsible for such massacres. As a result of Shia Hazara community protests and now the situation is normal. Unless coming out on roads, forging unity amongst their ranks and getting rid of external hands and influence, people from all over Kurram would face such massacres also in future.

Sectarian and ethnic tensions are parts of a big game in Pakistan

No one can deny the fact that artificial trends of terrorism and extremism, ethnic and sectarian unrest and growing trends of extortion abs target killing are part of a great game. And the great game commence in late 70s from Afghanistan and is now in its full swing in Pakistan and rest of certain parts and parcels of Asian region. First ever sectarian clash occurred in Kurram in late 80’s when US lead allied folding back from Afghan jihad. Military dictator Ziaul Haq was in reign in that time. This first ever clash between the two sides continued for a couple of weeks and later on spread to adjacent Hangu, Kohat, Aurakzai, Dera Ismael Khan and other areas. Prior to first ever clash, almost Shia and Sunni populations remained calm and patient towards each others. But later besides direct clashes, target killing of Shia elders remained routine. Scores if families from Peshawar and other places have abandoned ancestral homes and properties and now residing ad refugees and immigrants in safe places both in and outside of the country.

Failure of socio-political leadership in Pakistan  

Civil administration and confused policies on the part of military leadership now converted the sectarian unrest into massacres of innocent and minority Shia people in Kurram. Economically, socially and politically, the Shia community of Kurram are dependent on Sunni people. The Shias are surrounded by Sunnis. The road connecting Shia dominated upper and Central Kurram is passing through Sada Town and its surrounding areas dominated by Sunnis. A large number of Sunnis are linked with hard line religious groups and in reaction, the Shias are seeking help from like minded internal and external groups.

Since the late 80’s government organs have been killing the time on constitution of jirgas and reconciliation teams for settling the issues-the issues of lands and properties disputes. But the results are very poor. In fact the civil administration lacked determinations, which enabled them to settle issues. At the moment the office of Deputy Commissioner is occupied by a junior officer who had earlier served Bara and Jamrud Tehsils as Revenue Officer but remained silent spectator to incidents of terror, target killing and extortion. Instead of wasting time and giving opportunities to both internal and external elements to exploit the situation in their favor, political leadership must play a role. It is the time to tackle the situation otherwise Kurram could be another Baluchistan in the coming few weeks.