According to former British diplomat Craig Murray, the Syrian administration led by HTŞ has assured the United Kingdom that they will recognize Israel by the end of 2026.

Craig Murray, the former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan and a human rights advocate, raised a striking allegation on his personal blog. In a post based on British diplomatic sources, Murray claimed that Abu Muhammad al-Julani (Ahmed Shara), the “president” who effectively controls Syria, has assured the United Kingdom that he will officially recognize Israel by the end of 2026 and that ambassadors will be appointed reciprocally.

According to the allegation, this move will be implemented in exchange for Western financial support and the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

Murray stated that the termination of Israel’s occupation of Syrian territories was not discussed as part of the agreement, and that the United Kingdom views this issue as a “bilateral matter.” It was also stated that Shara did not prioritize this demand.

According to Murray, the European Union’s foreign affairs units believe that Shara’s declared council of ministers has fulfilled its commitment to the EU to establish an “inclusive government” at the Brussels Conference on March 17. This commitment included the inclusion of Alawite and Christian communities, as well as women, in the administration.

Murray continued: “However, when looking at the 24-member cabinet announced on March 27, it was noted that 21 ministers, including those in critical ministries such as foreign affairs and finance, were Sunni men, with only one female minister who is both Christian and a Canadian citizen. The minority representatives in the cabinet (one Christian, one Alawite, and one Druze) were limited to insignificant ministries. The Shiite community was not given any representation.”

The former British diplomat described the EU’s acceptance of this picture as an “inclusive government” as a “farce.”

Murray stated, “Shara’s pro-Israel stance seems to have taken precedence over all other criteria.”

Craig Murray, a former member of the British Foreign Office, also claimed, again based on the same source, that Shara receives direct support from MI6 and British special forces. According to Murray, the primary mission of these units is to prevent possible rebellions among the militants affiliated with Shara.

Murray said that the Chechen, Uzbek, and Uighur fighters among these groups are currently satisfied with the “spoils of victory” they have obtained, but may not welcome a move such as the recognition of Israel in the future.

Murray also shared his own prediction at this point, saying that Shara may eliminate the radical elements within himself in the future: “I think that this Western-backed regime will eventually liquidate the most fanatical elements within itself. Otherwise, it seems impossible for him to maintain this balance as both an Islamic fundamentalist and a pro-US/Israel leader.”

Ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza have accelerated ahead of US President Donald Trump’s planned Middle East visit in mid-May. It was claimed that Hamas agreed to release more Israeli hostages for a ceasefire, and the US promised to pressure Israel to start permanent ceasefire negotiations. In addition, the disarmament of Hamas under Egyptian supervision is on the agenda.

After the first phase of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, was completed, the Israeli administration did not agree to move on to the second phase, in which it had to end its occupation of Gaza. It requested that the first phase of the ceasefire be extended and, in return, Hamas release 11 Israeli hostages. Hamas, which wants to move on to the second phase of the ceasefire, responded to Israel’s new offer by saying that it could release 5 hostages. Israel rejected the proposal and restarted the Gaza attacks on March 18. Since then, attacks and ground occupation have continued, while negotiations for a ceasefire have also been conducted.

According to a report by Saudi Arabia-based El-Arabiya, Israel stated in its latest offer that it was ready to reduce the number of hostages to be released. It was reported that Hamas also agreed to release more hostages. However, no clear number was given.

If an agreement is reached under the proposed draft, the hostages will be released in two stages, and humanitarian aid will be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip.

In addition, it was stated that the US promised Hamas that it would force Israel into negotiations to end the war; it was noted that discussions on whether Hamas leaders could stay in Gaza were postponed to a later date.

The Saudi source also reported that, as part of a possible agreement, Hamas would provide medical reports on the health conditions of the hostages.

According to a report by Haaretz newspaper, based on Palestinian sources, the Cairo and Doha administrations are working with the US on a new phase of the ceasefire agreement reached in January. This phase will also include negotiations to end the 18-month war.

According to the news, Egypt submitted a permanent ceasefire proposal that includes the disarmament of Hamas and that this be done under Cairo’s supervision.

The report also stated that Hamas does not expect major results from the current negotiations, but believes there is an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement before US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar in mid-May.

Meanwhile, according to Ynet, which conveyed its source without explanation, the US assured Hamas that if it agreed to release more than 8 hostages, Israel would participate in negotiations to end the war.

A Hamas official told AFP on Friday that the Cairo delegation, headed by the group’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, hoped to achieve “real progress that would end the war, stop the attacks, and ensure the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces from Gaza.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on Sunday evening that Netanyahu emphasized in his meeting with the family of hostage Eitan Mor that efforts to rescue the hostages held by Hamas were continuing “even at this very moment.”

The Times of Israel published on Friday, citing two officials close to the talks, that Netanyahu softened his demands after his meeting with Trump in Washington last week.

The officials who spoke to the newspaper said on Thursday that Israel had conveyed its official response to the latest Egyptian-mediated offer. According to this response, Israel is demanding the release of hostages in the first two weeks of the 45-day ceasefire and rejects Hamas’s previously proposed time-phased release plan.

In addition, the Israeli side wants to reduce the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each hostage. These prisoners include those sentenced to life imprisonment. The latest offer also requests the delivery of the bodies of 16 Israelis held in Gaza. In return, the bodies of Gazans held by Israel will be handed over.

On the other hand, it is claimed that Netanyahu has the support of his far-right coalition partners, who threatened to overthrow his government if he ended the war. However, opinion polls also show that the majority of the public supports ending the war in exchange for the release of the hostages. It is thought that only 24 of the 59 hostages held by Hamas are still alive.

Israel and Türkiye have initiated direct contacts in Azerbaijan, citing the need to “avoid confrontation in Syria.” The Israeli press has interpreted these meetings as a path toward the de facto division of Syria. A former navy commander described the meetings as “a kind of Sykes-Picot agreement.”

Israel and Türkiye have begun technical-level talks in Azerbaijan to prevent a potential conflict in the Syrian arena after Bashar al-Assad. The primary goal of the meetings is to “reduce the risk of conflict in military movements on the ground and to determine the red lines of the parties.”

However, according to comments in the Israeli press, these contacts may signal a tacit agreement on the de facto division of Syria. Al-Mayadeen reported from Israeli media that Israel’s former Navy Commander Eliezer Marom made a striking comparison, saying, “A kind of Sykes-Picot agreement has been made between us and Türkiye.” According to Marom, “Syria will not remain a single and whole state; it will be fragmented. Türkiye also has interests in some of these fragments.”

Israeli television channel News 13 also interpreted the meetings in Azerbaijan as “a sign of a new era in which Syria will be geographically divided.”

Prior to these contacts, Israel’s attack on the T4 airbase in Syria had raised tensions. This base is alleged to be among the points where Türkiye plans to deploy militarily.

The first confirmation regarding the meetings came from Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. In a statement on CNN Türk, Fidan announced that technical negotiations had begun with Israel to establish a “non-conflict mechanism.” The Ministry of National Defense also announced that the first meeting took place in Azerbaijan. On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office also confirmed the direct talks, thanking Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for his mediation.

Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported that no agreement was reached at the meetings held on Wednesday, and the second round would take place after Passover, which ends on April 20. The same source also claimed that Türkiye did not allow the plane carrying Israeli officials to Azerbaijan to enter its airspace, and the plane had to take a circuitous route via Bulgaria and Greece.

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post, an Israeli official said that Türkiye establishing a military base, especially in the Palmyra region, is a red line for Israel, and this position was clearly conveyed to the Turkish side at the meeting in Azerbaijan. The same official stated that the new administration led by HTŞ leader Ahmed Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) would be held responsible for possible threats against Israel in the Syrian arena.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen also expressed a cautious attitude towards the process, saying, “We do not want a conflict with Türkiye,” but he also emphasized, “We are against the Turkish military presence in Syria.”

However, in Israel, it is assessed that the Netanyahu government does not have many options to balance Türkiye’s influence in Syria.

Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a semi-official institution reflecting the views of the Israeli security bureaucracy, told The Times of Israel, “Ultimately, when it comes to Syria, Türkiye is much more interested in and invested in that country than Israel is. Israel’s interest in Syria is only security-focused. This gives Ankara an advantage.”

Lindenstrauss also stated that US President Donald Trump’s support for President Tayyip Erdoğan further narrowed Israel’s room for maneuver.

Lindenstrauss made the following assessment: “President Trump made it clear during his last meeting with Netanyahu in Washington that he was willing to help Israel on the issue of Türkiye, but that Israel needed to make ‘reasonable demands’ for this to happen. Trump wants to force Israel into a more minimalist approach in Syria. Israel must prioritize and insist only on its most critical red lines, such as preventing the transfer of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria.”