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China’s export and import growth beats forecasts

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China’s export and import growth beat forecasts in the January-February period, providing encouragement for policymakers trying to support the economic recovery.

China’s improving export data followed South Korea and Germany, whose shipments beat expectations in the first two months of the year as Asian economies benefited from a surge in demand for semiconductors.

Exports from the world’s second-largest economy rose 7.1 percent in the two months from a year earlier, beating expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.9 percent increase, customs data showed on Thursday. Imports, however, rose 3.5 percent, compared with expectations for a 1.5 percent increase.

“The better-than-forecast data reflect a recovery in global trade driven by the electronics sector, but also benefit from a low base effect as export growth in January-February was -6.8%,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The customs bureau publishes trade data for January and February together to correct for distortions caused by the change in the timing of the Lunar New Year, which falls in February this year.

Chinese PM Li Qiang announced on Tuesday that the economic growth target for 2024 is 5 per cent, similar to last year, and pledged to transform the country’s development model based on exports of manufactured goods and excess industrial capacity.

Policymakers have struggled with low growth rates over the past year as consumers postponed spending, foreign companies divested, manufacturers struggled to find buyers and local governments grappled with huge debt burdens and the housing crisis.

A sustained recovery in exports is also important, although this key growth engine is expected to help support the economy.

“After accounting for changes in export prices and seasonality, we estimate that export volumes rose sharply in January and February, reaching a new high,” Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

“However, we are sceptical about the sustainability of this strength as exporters’ ability to cut prices to maintain market share is now more limited,” he added.

Exports to the US rose, while shipments to the EU fell

Market reaction to the trade data was largely muted. China’s blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.32%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.47%.

China’s trade surplus widened to $125.16 billion, compared with $103.7 billion in the survey and $75.3 billion in December.

Commodities data released on the same day showed the Asian giant’s crude oil imports rose 5.1% year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, as refiners increased purchases to meet fuel sales during the Lunar New Year holiday, while copper imports rose 2.6%.

China’s total exports to the US returned to growth in January-February, rising 5% year-on-year, compared with a 6.9% fall in December. However, shipments to the EU fell by 1.3% over the same period.

Expectations of global monetary easing may also provide some relief to China’s hopes of boosting exports, but economic conditions in many major developed countries look bleak in the short term. Both Japan and the UK slipped into recession in the second half of last year, while the eurozone economy also stalled.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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ASIA

Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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ASIA

Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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