Asia
Chinese academy discusses Syria

On 11 December, the Shanghai University, Institute of International Studies and the Center for Turkish Studies held a forum to discuss developments in Syria and the Middle East.
The forum discussed the changing situation in Syria and its impact on the balance of power in the region, the role of actors such as Türkiye, and the impact of Trump’s return to the White House on the political situation in the region.
Academics, researchers and students from different disciplines from more than 10 universities attended the forum.
Professor Guo Changgang, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and one of the university’s leading global experts, delivered the opening speech of the forum. Professor Guo emphasised that an important mission of regional studies is to play the role of a think tank. In this context, a special discussion session entitled “Theory and Practice of Regional Country Studies” was organised at the meeting. This session was not limited to the basic concepts of regional country studies, but instead focused on the specific “practice” and “case” analyses of this field.
Professor Guo pointed out that Donald Trump’s policy towards Türkiye in his first term directly led to the collapse of the Turkish Lira, and Türkiye is still unable to get out of this financial and economic quagmire. He also emphasised that Trump’s China policy in his first term triggered a trade war and China is still facing sanctions from the Biden administration. Therefore, he emphasised that Trump’s return to power would create great uncertainty for both China and Türkiye. Therefore, in the context of Trump’s second term, “it is particularly necessary to discuss China-Türkiye relations and Türkiye’s diplomatic issues,” he said.
The forum also included a round table discussion on the current situation in Syria and Türkiye for about 1.5 hours.
In this section, the speakers emphasised that the sudden changes in Syria were caused by three main factors:
- Economic factors: Bashar al-Assad’s government faced Western sanctions and embargoes, while reduced economic aid from Russia and Iran led to economic crises and rapidly rising prices, allowing rebel forces to advance without effective resistance.
- External factors: Iran, Russia and Hezbollah’s “foreign aid” to the Syrian government has decreased, while subversive interventions by actors such as Türkiye, the US, Israel and Ukraine have increased.
- Military factors: Syrian government forces have undertaken military reforms and reduced the number of low-level officers. In response, the rebels gained experience in fighting abroad and started to use new tactics with drones.
Predictions that Syria will drill
Academics predict that the political transition in Syria will be challenging. Discussions on the establishment of a secular or religious state, a republic or a federal structure, and issues such as an Arab-led structure or Kurdish autonomy could lead to new tensions over power-sharing between Sunnis, Alawites and Kurds.
It was also pointed out that there is a risk of a new conflict in Syria. The danger of conflicts both between the organisations themselves and between Türkiye and Kurdish organisations was pointed out.
On the other hand, it was stated that Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Israel, based on their strategic interests, may actively cooperate with HTS, which overthrew the government of Bashar al-Assad.
Conflicts between the US and Russia, Russia and Turkey, Iran and Israel, Iran and Israel, Türkiye and the Gulf Arab states, and tensions between secularism and religion, terrorism and counter-terrorism were predicted to continue.
Some academics emphasised that it is uncertain whether Syria will resemble the Iraq or Libya model, but that it could become a new area of competition between the great powers. Others argued that international and regional rivalries have diminished since 2011 and that the Syrian crisis is unlikely to spread beyond the country.
Türkiye’s situation: Big gains or new challenges?
The debate on this topic centred on Türkiye’s role in the changes in Syria. Some noted that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government made Türkiye a “big winner”. At a time when the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” is in decline and Israel’s negative image is spreading, Türkiye has gained a strategic advantage. It was also noted that the decline in the overall influence of extra-regional powers in the Middle East has also created an advantageous situation for Türkiye
The speakers agreed that China should establish closer relations with Türkiye.
However, some academics argued that despite the gains Türkiye has made, it faces the fear of a “counter-move” and that its problems have only just begun.
The problems Türkiye may face in the future were listed as follows:
- Will it invest more in the reconstruction of Syria, or will it not be able to afford to do so (due to lack of funds) and leave the process alone?
- How will he coordinate relations between Syria and the West?
- How will it address the concerns of other parties?
It was also mentioned that Türkiye might be dragged into a more passive position on the Syrian issue in the future.
Middle East policies under Donald Trump
It was stated that the Middle East will face a new test with the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January.
It was noted that the Middle East policies of the Donald Trump 2.0 era will be influenced by Trump’s general goals based on the “America First” principle, the continuation of the Middle East policies of the 1.0 era and current developments.
While it was emphasised that Trump’s general goal was to revitalise the economy and international position by applying the “America First” principle, it was assessed that in the Middle East, this meant reducing direct military expenditures, but strengthening a strategy against Russia and China, and preventing economic cooperation and high-tech projects.
It was noted that Trump’s “three axes” policy from the 1.0 era is likely to continue: The suppression of forces obstructing US domination, the weakening of actors supporting Iran and the “axis of resistance”, and the fight against the “Islamic State”. Three moves were envisaged in this direction: Support for Israel, rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and furthering the alliance strategy.
While Trump’s pro-Israel bias is expected to end the current conflict cycle quickly and in favour of Israel, it is unlikely to offer a just solution to the Palestinian issue.
As for Iran, a new policy of “maximum pressure”, tougher economic sanctions and possible military threats were foreseen.
Scholars at the meeting noted that Trump’s Middle East policy in the 2.0 era presents both challenges and opportunities for China.
China can strengthen its security and economic ties in a targeted manner, open up new areas, and diplomatically increase its efforts on regional hot topics and play a mediating role.
Asia
ASEAN and China deepen ties amid threat of new US tariffs

On Thursday, ASEAN foreign ministers emphasized the strength of the bloc’s relationship with China as they sought to deepen ties with Beijing in the face of new “reciprocal” punitive tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump. Experts believe Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is bringing ASEAN and China even closer.
In his opening speech at a meeting in Kuala Lumpur with ASEAN foreign ministers and their Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said that China is “one of ASEAN’s most important and dynamic partners.”
“This relationship is built on mutual trust, common interests, and growing economic interdependence,” he said.
Wang echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the countries’ shared Asian identity and goals. “China has always seen ASEAN as a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy and sees the region as a pioneer in building a global community with a shared future for humanity,” he said.
The meeting was part of the annual Ministerial Conference of ASEAN foreign ministers. Following the meeting, there will be meetings with Japan, China, and South Korea, as well as with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other dialogue partners.
Addressing the ongoing geopolitical shifts, Wang noted that the current global turmoil and transformation raise questions of unity or division, peace or conflict, and cooperation or confrontation.
“We must learn from history, actively promote an equal and structured world order, and push the international system toward greater justice and equality by supporting inclusive and shared economic globalization,” he said.
Trade relations
Since 2020, ASEAN and China have remained each other’s largest trading partners, with total trade volume reaching $770.9 billion in 2024, a 10.6% increase from the previous year.
In May, the two sides announced the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 agreement after nine rounds of negotiations spanning two and a half years.
The upgraded agreement includes nine new chapters covering the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity. China’s Ministry of Commerce described this framework as a gateway to building the China-ASEAN mega-market.
Meanwhile, ASEAN members are preparing for new US tariffs set to take effect on August 1. The tariffs are set at 40% for Myanmar and Laos, 36% for Cambodia and Thailand, 32% for Indonesia, 25% for Malaysia and Brunei, and 20% for Vietnam and the Philippines. Washington has not yet announced an updated rate for Singapore, which was taxed at a 10% rate when the tariffs were announced in April.
Response to tariffs
On Wednesday, at the start of the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that trade is being used as a tool for “pressure, isolation, and control,” adding that “tariffs, export restrictions, and investment barriers have now become sharp instruments of geopolitical competition.”
In a speech to parliament on Wednesday, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani called for multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the UN, and the World Bank to play a more significant role in the trade war. “The role of these multilateral institutions has been greatly weakened and is not even respected,” she said.
Thailand announced $1.22 billion in mitigation measures. According to Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul, Thailand’s central bank is also expected to further loosen its monetary policy to reduce tariffs.
A draft of the joint communique from the foreign ministers’ meeting, seen by Nikkei Asia, describes unilateral tariffs as “counterproductive” and warns that they “risk exacerbating global economic fragmentation and posing complex challenges to ASEAN’s economic stability and growth.” The draft, expected to be released on Friday, affirms that ASEAN is “committed to working constructively with all partners to this end.”
Asia
Chinese navy chief and top nuclear scientist expelled from legislature

The chief of staff for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, Vice Admiral Li Hanjun, and Liu Shipeng, the deputy chief engineer of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation, were removed from their positions in the country’s legislative body.
Li is the latest in a series of PLA generals and a handful of defense industry executives implicated in a widespread investigation within the military.
In a statement on Friday, the NPC Standing Committee announced, “The Navy Soldiers’ Congress has decided to remove Li Hanjun from his post as a representative to the 14th National People’s Congress.”
The Gansu People’s Congress also dismissed Liu Shipeng from his role as an NPC deputy.
Additionally, the Standing Committee revealed it had voted to remove Miao Hua, a former top general who previously oversaw the PLA’s ideological work, from the Central Military Commission (CMC), China’s highest military command body led by President Xi Jinping.
The removal of Li and Liu from their NPC memberships suggests they are facing serious disciplinary action.
China typically remains silent about purges within the military, and announcements from the NPC are one of the few indicators of such campaigns.
There is little public information available about Li and Liu, as both have worked in sensitive positions.
Before becoming the navy’s chief of staff, Li, 60, was the deputy director of the CMC’s Training and Administration Department. He was appointed to this role after serving for a year in the CMC’s Office for Reform and Organisational Structure.
In 2014, he was promoted to vice admiral upon his appointment as commander of the naval base in Fujian province, where Miao also spent a significant part of his career. At that time, he was the director of training at the China Naval Command College and was soon promoted to president of the school.
According to official media reports, nuclear scientist Liu was born into a family that “served China’s nuclear dream for three generations.”
As the deputy chief engineer at CNNC, which oversees all aspects of China’s civil and military nuclear programs, Liu also served as the Communist Party secretary and president of CNNC’s “404 base” in Gansu.
Covering an area of over 1,000 square kilometers, the base was established in 1958 and is the country’s first and largest nuclear research center. It played a crucial role in the development of China’s first atomic bomb in 1964 and its first hydrogen bomb three years later.
This secretive base is still considered a key hub for China’s nuclear deterrence and nuclear industry.
According to statements from provincial authorities, Liu was named “Gansu’s outstanding entrepreneur” in 2023.
Asia
China, US reach agreement on export controls

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday afternoon that Beijing and Washington have remained in close contact since the two-day trade talks in London earlier this month, confirming the details of a framework agreement.
“China will review and approve export applications for controlled items in accordance with its laws and regulations, and the US side will, in turn, lift a series of restrictive measures against China,” the ministry stated.
“We hope the US side will cooperate with China in line with the important consensus and conditions established during the conversation between the two presidents on June 5,” the statement continued.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the US had “signed” a trade deal with China the previous day, without providing details.
“We signed the deal with China yesterday, right? We signed the deal with China,” Trump said at a White House event introducing a budget law. “With the China deal, we are starting to open up China,” he added.
He also mentioned that a “very big” deal, likely with India, would be signed soon.
Rare earth elements
Following the event, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that the US and China had signed an agreement codifying the terms decided upon in previous trade negotiations.
“They will deliver rare earth elements to us,” Lutnick said in a televised interview with Bloomberg, adding that if this commitment is fulfilled, Washington will lift its “countermeasures.”
Rare earth elements, essential for producing high-tech products, including those for the defense industry, were a major point of contention in the trade talks. China holds a near-monopoly on the supply of these minerals due to its massive share of global refining capacity.
Responding to a question on Thursday about rare earth exports, ministry spokesman He Yadong said China had approved a “certain number” of applications and would “continue to strengthen” the review and approval process for eligible applications.
He added that Beijing is willing to “strengthen communication and dialogue” with other countries on export controls and actively promote appropriate trade.
Lutnick also stated that the US plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners in the coming weeks. The deadline for countries to negotiate trade terms before higher tariffs are reinstated was July 9, following a 90-day suspension of import tariff hikes announced on April 2.
The two negotiating teams concluded the London talks by announcing they had agreed “in principle” on a “framework” that both sides would take home for their respective leaders to review, as they sought to get their uneasy truce, signed last month in Geneva, back on track.
The negotiations began after a highly anticipated phone call between Xi Jinping and Trump, which seemingly ended an intractable stalemate.
In the weeks following the initial agreement in Switzerland, Washington claimed China was restricting exports of critical minerals, while Beijing reacted to US restrictions on semiconductors and threats to impose visa barriers on Chinese students.
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