Diplomacy
Cyprus threatens to renegotiate British base status following drone strike
The government of Cyprus has alleged that the British government’s failure to communicate effectively paved the way for a drone strike on the Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri, raising the prospect of a renegotiation regarding the facility’s usage.
Nicosia contends that the persistent ambiguity surrounding the role of British bases—maintained since the UK relinquished its colonial rule—has dragged the island into the escalating conflict across the Middle East.
Government spokesman Konstantinos Letymbiotis told reporters during a briefing, “This is a situation we view with dissatisfaction.”
He argued that despite assurances provided to the Cypriot government, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s statement on Sunday failed to explicitly confirm that the British bases on the island would “not be used under any circumstances, except for humanitarian purposes.”
Shortly after midnight on Monday, a Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) struck the British Royal Air Force (RAF) base at Akrotiri. While this drone penetrated defenses, subsequent aerial incursions targeting the base throughout the day were intercepted.
Iran claims US military presence is shifting to Cyprus
Although the origin of the UAV attack remains unconfirmed, local media indicated the drone likely originated from Lebanon. Meanwhile, a senior commander within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of intensified missile strikes against Cyprus, alleging a surge in US military assets on the island.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated on Monday:
“Our bases in Cyprus are not being used by US bombers… The security of our friends and partners in Cyprus is of critical importance. I want to be clear: the attack on Akrotiri in Cyprus was not made in response to any decision we have taken. According to our assessment, the drone was launched before our announcement.”
Residents in Akrotiri and surrounding villages were jolted awake by sirens throughout the night, prompting an exodus from the area. Some sought refuge in Limassol or at Cypriot military barracks.
Local media chronicled the chaotic atmosphere, describing the indecision faced by families concerned for their own safety and that of their children.
The region remained under evacuation orders on Monday, with a re-evaluation of the situation scheduled for today, March 3.
Nicosia may renegotiate British bases
“All necessary steps will be taken to communicate our dissatisfaction regarding the manner in which this message was conveyed and the lack of timely warning provided to Cypriot citizens living near the Akrotiri bases,” Letymbiotis declared, adding that Cyprus would file a formal diplomatic complaint.
When asked if Cyprus, currently holding the rotating presidency of the EU Council, might seek to renegotiate the status of the bases, Letymbiotis responded, “We are not ruling anything out in this context.”
The European Union ministerial meeting scheduled to take place in Cyprus on Monday and Tuesday was postponed following the drone strike.
This marks the first time a British base in Cyprus has been struck since a rocket attack by Libyan militants in 1986. While the bases are considered British sovereign territory, Cyprus is an EU member and currently holds the bloc’s rotating presidency.
Akrotiri, situated on a peninsula at the southern tip of Cyprus southwest of the coastal city of Limassol, is one of two bases the UK has retained since its former colony gained independence in 1960. In the past, the base has been utilized for military operations in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
Greece deploys naval vessels to the region
Meanwhile, Greece has ordered the deployment of military assets to the region following the drone strikes on southern Cyprus.
These attacks mark the first time an EU member state has been drawn into the three-day campaign conducted by the US and Israel against Iran.
Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias announced on Monday that two frigates and two F-16 fighter jets would be deployed immediately.
Dendias stated:
“Following the unprovoked attacks on Cypriot territory, Greece will provide all possible contributions to the defense of the Republic of Cyprus against threats and illegal acts occurring on its soil.”
Greece has deployed the Belharra-class frigate Kimon and a second frigate equipped with the Kentauros anti-drone system. Two F-16 fighter jets have also been assigned to the mission.
Dendias will be on the island today, alongside Chief of the Hellenic National Defence General Staff General Dimitrios Choupis, to coordinate the two countries’ stances.
Christodoulides: Cyprus has no intention of participating in any military operation
Following the confirmation of the drone attack, President of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides delivered a televised address.
“I want to be clear: our country has not participated in this attack in any way, and we have no intention of participating in any military operation,” the Cypriot leader affirmed.
Christodoulides briefed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the attack.
Von der Leyen later emphasized that Cyprus, and by extension the EU, was not the target of the drone strike.
In a post on X, von der Leyen stated:
“The Republic of Cyprus was not the target; however, I want to be clear: we stand collectively, resolutely, and firmly with our member states in the face of any threat.”
Panic in the south of the island
Furthermore, earlier in the day, the passenger terminal at Paphos Airport was temporarily evacuated following the detection of a suspicious object on radar.
Residents of the nearby villages of Timi, Anarita, and Mandria were instructed to “avoid unnecessary movement.”
Paphos is a coastal city in southwestern Cyprus, approximately 56 kilometers from the Akrotiri base.
Cypriot media also reported smoke rising near Dhekelia, the other British airbase located on the island’s southeastern coast.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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