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Era of nuclear disarmament is over, says new security report

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The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its new report titled Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, announced that the era of nuclear weapons reduction, which has been ongoing since the end of the Cold War, has effectively concluded.

According to the report, while the number of military conflicts worldwide decreased in 2024, the number of fatalities in these conflicts rose. Global military spending and international arms transfers have also reached record levels not seen since the Cold War.

The era of nuclear disarmament is over

The authors of the SIPRI report state that “the era of nuclear weapons reduction has clearly ended,” and the prospect of nuclear disarmament is at its weakest point since the end of the Cold War.

The primary trigger for this situation is cited as the mutual inspection crisis within the framework of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia, which remains in effect until 2026.

Moscow suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023, accusing NATO of involvement in attacks on Ukraine’s strategic airfields. This development is reviving debates on nuclear status in Europe and the Middle East, prompting updates to strategies against the potential proliferation of such weapons.

The report predicts that if Donald Trump is re-elected as US president in 2025, the “paradoxical situation” of his first term will be repeated, and none of the key nuclear powers will “commit to defending the world order.”

The report notes that the US, China, and Russia have begun modernizing their arsenals, with Russia updating its doctrine and the US upgrading its warheads.

“Returning to an era of constraints will require an agreement among the three nuclear powers,” the report states. Although SIPRI views US contacts with China on this issue more positively, it notes that these discussions are “undermined by support for Taiwan and sanctions.”

Fewer conflicts, more casualties

According to SIPRI’s calculations, 51 states were involved in conflicts in 2023, a number that dropped to 49 in 2024. The number of conflicts with over 10,000 fatalities also decreased slightly, from 20 to 19.

The largest conflicts were identified as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar, and the insurgency in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

In contrast, total fatalities from conflicts rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Europe became the region with the highest number of casualties.

Outside of Europe, it was noted that most conflicts occurred “within states or between clusters of states with porous borders,” with the war in Gaza also falling into this category.

Defense spending breaks records

SIPRI’s April report indicated that in 2024, the growth rate of state military spending (9.4%) and the total amount ($2.7 trillion) reached record levels since the end of the Cold War. In Europe, defense appropriations increased by 17%, while in Ukraine, they rose by 3.9%.

China, ranking second in spending, increased its expenditures by 7% in 2024, while Russia also raised its spending. The world leader, the US, saw its spending increase by 5.7%.

In the Middle East, the total increase for the region was 9.4%, driven by a 65% rise in spending by Israel, which has been at war since 2023, and a 12% increase by a rearming Turkey.

Arms companies see rising revenues

SIPRI presented data on the largest defense industry companies for 2023. The revenue of the world’s top 100 defense companies grew by 2.8% from 2022 to 2023, reaching $632 billion.

Of the top 100 companies, 75 increased their revenue, and 39 doubled it. The list of the top 100 companies by revenue includes 41 US firms, with China in second place with nine companies.

Half of the top 10 highest-earning companies are from the US. The total revenue of American arms manufacturers reached $315 billion, accounting for half of the global total.

International arms trade at a peak

According to the SIPRI report, the 2020–2024 period was the second most intense five-year span for international arms transfers, surpassed only by the 1980–1984 period when the Cold War last escalated.

The report states that the largest exporters are traditionally the US, France, Russia, China, and Germany, which together account for 71% of global exports.

The largest buyers were Ukraine, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, accounting for 35% of imports. Over the past 10 years, China has shifted from being an importer to an exporter, reducing its foreign purchases by two-thirds.

Diplomacy

BlackRock halts work on Ukraine reconstruction fund amid Trump uncertainty

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US-based BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, has reportedly halted its efforts to find investors for a planned reconstruction fund for Ukraine.

According to a report by Bloomberg that cited sources familiar with the matter, the decision is driven by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.

The fund was scheduled to be unveiled at a conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction on July 10-11, an event attended by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sources indicated that the initiative was close to securing initial support from entities linked to the governments of Germany, Italy, and Poland.

However, with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House in January, BlackRock has decided to temporarily suspend its discussions with institutional investors, citing uncertainty about future support for Ukraine.

Alternative plan from France

Bloomberg has also learned that France is now developing an alternative plan, which includes creating a new fund to replace the initiative that BlackRock has suspended. The effectiveness of this new plan without US participation, however, remains a significant question.

A BlackRock representative stated that the company completed its pro bono advisory work for the Ukraine project in 2024 and currently has “no active commitments” to the Ukrainian government.

“The only discussions that influence BlackRock’s decisions are those the firm has with its clients,” the representative emphasized.

The fund’s $15 billion target

BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, who was previously involved in the negotiations, had announced plans to attract at least $500 million from governments, international development banks, and other public donors, along with approximately $2 billion from private investors.

According to Hildebrand, uniting investors under a single consortium would have enabled the direction of at least $15 billion in equity and debt investments toward Ukraine’s reconstruction.

The World Bank estimates that the total cost for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction exceeds €500 billion. Rebuilding the country’s port infrastructure alone is projected to require at least €1 billion.

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BRICS summit condemns attack on Iran, demands Gaza ceasefire

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At the 17th BRICS Summit, which began Sunday in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, military attacks against Iran were condemned, and a call was made for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

As the summit continued, US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on countries supporting BRICS policies.

A joint statement released by the group declared that the military attacks on Iran were a “violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations (UN).”

Trump threatens tariffs on countries supporting BRICS

While the BRICS summit was underway, US President Donald Trump announced on the social media platform Truth Social that a 10% additional tariff would be imposed on countries that decide to support the group’s “anti-American policy.” Trump stated, “There will be no exceptions.”

Previously, Trump had threatened to impose a 100% tariff on the products of BRICS countries if they created an alternative currency to the dollar.

The US President had said, “BRICS has zero chance of replacing the American dollar in international trade. Any country that tries to do so can wave goodbye to America.” After this threat, Trump claimed that BRICS was “dead.”

Attack on Iran a ‘violation of international law’

The BRICS communiqué expressed “deep concern” over the escalating security situation in the Middle East and the deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities.

The group emphasized its support for diplomatic initiatives aimed at resolving regional challenges and called on the UN Security Council (UNSC) to address the issue.

Call for immediate ceasefire in Gaza, compliance in Lebanon

The statement also reiterated concern over the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories as Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip continue.

The text condemned all violations of international law, particularly international humanitarian law and human rights law, drawing special attention to the use of starvation as a method of warfare.

The parties were urged to engage in further negotiations in good faith to achieve an immediate, permanent, and unconditional ceasefire. Additionally, “unwavering” support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) was affirmed.

The communiqué expressed satisfaction with the ceasefire in Lebanon and called on all parties to “strictly adhere to its terms.”

Ongoing violations of the ceasefire and of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity were condemned.

The statement called on Israel to “respect the terms agreed upon with the Lebanese government and withdraw its occupying forces from all Lebanese territory.”

‘We are committed to Syria’s territorial integrity’

BRICS also affirmed its commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity of Syria. It called for a Syrian-led, peaceful, and inclusive political process based on the principles of UNSC Resolution 2254.

The partial occupation of some parts of Syria was strongly condemned, with a call for Israel to withdraw its forces without delay. The threat posed by the presence of foreign terrorist fighters in Syria was also condemned.

BRICS has a responsibility to defend international law, Araghchi declared

Speaking at the summit, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that BRICS has a responsibility to defend international law and multilateralism, and to support the fundamental principles of the UN, from the equality of states to the rejection of the use of force and the peaceful resolution of disputes.

Araghchi stated that the attack on Iran was “a result of the absolute impunity granted by the US and some European countries for the Israeli regime to commit crimes without accountability.”

Stating that both Israel and the US must be held accountable for their violations of international law, Araghchi warned that the consequences of this attack would not be limited to his country but would spread throughout the entire region and even beyond.

The Iranian minister expressed that “the security dilemma in the region will not be resolved as long as Israel’s illegal tendencies are encouraged by its supporters.”

Noting that residential areas and military bases were targeted in the attacks, and that military leaders, soldiers, academics, and scientists were killed, Araghchi stressed Tehran’s determination to document the war crimes committed.

Araghchi added that “Iran will not abandon its demand for justice and compensation” and that his country “will continue to defend itself with all its might against any future attacks.”

The unipolar world is a thing of the past, says Putin

Participating in the summit via video conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world is witnessing profound changes and that the unipolar system of international relations “is a thing of the past.”

Calling for the strengthening of cooperation among BRICS countries, Putin expressed his hope for expanding the use of national currencies.

Putin stated that all member countries “stand for the principles of equality, good neighborliness, and traditional values,” adding, “The influence and position of BRICS are growing every year, and it has rightfully become one of the main centers of the global system.”

The Russian leader noted that the group “significantly surpasses” other blocs like the G7 in terms of purchasing power parity.

The UNSC must be reformed, says Lula da Silva

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned that the UN is in danger of “losing credibility and becoming paralyzed.”

Lula da Silva called for the UNSC to be reformed by “adding new permanent members from the Global South.” He stated that this is not just a matter of justice but also “a guarantee for the survival of the UN.”

The Brazilian leader also warned of a potential nuclear catastrophe and urged world leaders not to ignore the “genocide” committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip.

He emphasized that a solution is only possible “with the end of the occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

Lavrov supports Araghchi

On the sidelines of the summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Araghchi. Lavrov reiterated his country’s position condemning the illegal attacks against Iran, including those on peaceful nuclear facilities.

Emphasizing the importance of taking effective steps to prevent the escalation of tensions in the region, Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to assist, including at the UNSC level.

The global rise of BRICS

BRICS was initially coined as the acronym BRIC by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill to describe the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

These countries formed an informal club in 2009. With the inclusion of South Africa in 2010, the group became known as BRICS. The group expanded in 2023 with the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, and Indonesia joined at the beginning of 2025.

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), stated during the summit in Brazil that the era of the Global South has begun.

Dmitriev noted that BRICS countries account for half of global economic growth, about 45% of the world’s population, and approximately 40% of global GDP, while the G7’s share remains at 29%.

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Juan Carrero condemns global indifference to tragedies in Gaza and Congo

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In a speech at the International Peace Coalition meeting organized by the Schiller Institute, Juan Carrero, President of the s’Olivar Foundation in Spain, stated that the world has become “morally dead” by ignoring major tragedies in Gaza, Syria, and Africa. He argued that this moral decay fuels the madness of war.

Carrero noted that resisting countries like Iran possess something far more powerful than nuclear weapons, saying, “This is honor.”

Describing the analyses at the meeting as “sensible, courageous, and enlightening,” Carrero highlighted the Schiller Institute’s consistent emphasis on the importance of morality alongside its geostrategic analyses.

‘Moral death is worse’

Carrero stated that moral corruption has always been at the root of the destructive collapse of empires and all war frenzies in history. “Those pursuing a delusional expansionist project aim to bring about regime change in Iran. This is the last of the seven regime changes they have planned. They claim to be very concerned about Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb,” he said.

Carrero emphasized that Iran and many other countries resisting the latest follies of the collapsing Anglo-Western empire possess something far more powerful than nuclear weapons, reiterating, “This is honor.” He added that Iran does not see the assassination of its generals or nuclear scientists in their homes with their families as a failure. He continued:

“Each of them is a martyr whose blood will give life to their people. On this matter, both heroic military leaders and political activists agree with the advocates of the non-violence movement. There is something much worse than physical death, and that is moral death.”

‘The world is morally dead’

Carrero asserted that a world that ignores the tragedies in Gaza, Syria, or Africa because they are not thought to directly trigger a nuclear catastrophe is a “worthless and morally dead” world.

“The same applies to a world that does not care about Africa because the conflicts there are not waged with weapons of mass destruction or weapons that could destroy our Anglo-Western way of life,” Carrero assessed.

In his speech, Carrero pointed to a series of “follies” that should not be tolerated, including the “Greater Israel project,” the “desire for Russia’s collapse,” and the quest by “the genocidal Paul Kagame to annex the vast eastern territories of the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Specifically addressing the situation in Congo, Carrero noted that the country has 7 million refugees, millions of victims, and hundreds of thousands of cases of rape. He stated that heroic leaders like Victor Ingabir, who could end this madness, are systematically killed or imprisoned.

“Despite the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights ruling in his favor, Paul Kagame has abducted him once again, and no one can reach him,” Carrero said.

Carrero concluded his speech by presenting a video message from the 1980 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Adolfo Perez Esquivel, which included a call to “disarm the armed consciences and stop the wars and lies.”

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