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Germany’s CDU party congress begins: Programme for ‘post-Merkel’ era to be announced

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Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) will gather for a three-day party congress on 6 May to lay the foundations for their new programme in the post-Merkel era and to launch their European election campaign.

On the first day, the CDU, which is currently leading in the polls with around 30 per cent, will also elect its new leader, possibly consolidating the position of Friedrich Merz.

The following day, the Christian Democrats will adopt a new manifesto, the core programme outlining the party’s basic political principles. This dates back to 2007, when then-Chancellor Merkel, who declined an invitation to attend the party conference, was still at the helm of the CDU.

New phase in fight against migration

This [programme change] will be the fourth in the history of the CDU in Germany,’ CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann told a press conference in Berlin on Sunday. It will be historic and important,’ he said.

According to Linnemann, the new programme aims to move away from Merkel’s more ‘centrist’ line and strengthen the party’s conservative image, especially when it comes to migration and energy policy, as ‘mistakes have been made’ in the past.

According to the CDU, which says in its new programme that it wants to ‘regain control of migration’, migration should be reduced to a level that ‘does not overburden Germany’s integration capacity and at the same time fulfils our humanitarian responsibility’.

The Christian Democrats continue to distinguish between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ refugees, arguing that all but those ‘in need of protection’ should be ‘turned back at the EU’s external borders’.

The CDU is therefore ‘in favour of a fundamental change in European asylum law’.

A ‘bigger and safer’ energy supply

When it comes to energy, the main programme is to create a ‘larger and more secure energy supply’ for industry.

There are fears that energy-intensive German industry will move abroad, and that the country will become less attractive to foreign investors.

Many in the party are still angry that Merkel is accelerating the nuclear phase-out. Merkel’s legacy stirs controversyBut some in the party are not happy with this change of course.

Many people who voted for the CDU under Merkel are now out of reach,” Daniel Günther, the CDU state chancellor of Schleswig-Holstein, told the Funke media group.

Günther’s comments were immediately criticised by Johannes Winkel, federal chairman of the CDU/CSU youth organisation Junge Union. In a letter quoted by the Bild newspaper, Winkel wrote: “I am astonished and angry. Because I didn’t realise until now that you are a politician who thinks backwards and lives in the past. Of course the CDU owes a great deal to Angela Merkel. But Angela Merkel also owes a lot to the CDU,” he said.

In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, CDU politician and former chancellor-designate Armin Laschet also advocated a ‘forward-looking’ course for his party: ‘We must carry the honour of our long periods of government with confidence, not through Angela Merkel, Helmut Kohl or anyone else. During the election campaign, voters are asking us: What does the CDU want today? Not how Mrs Merkel’s term in office went,’ he said.

A cautious approach to the former chancellor

On the other hand, Merkel is still very popular with the public and within the party, making it difficult for the leadership to be overly critical of her political legacy.

We will continue to make mistakes in the future,” Linnemann said, rejecting the impression that everything is now being blamed on Merkel.

Linnemann said they “absolutely do not want to separate from one person”. Rather, he said, the basic programme is about showing ways to ‘give the country courage and optimism’ for the next 10 or 15 years.

Discussion of ‘Islam’ in the manifesto

The debate on the new manifesto has been going on within the party for two years, and many amendments have been proposed by members.

One of the most important issues is the place of Islam in Germany.

Muslims who share our values belong in Germany,’ the draft programme originally said. Critics of this statement argued that it would ‘marginalise’ other population groups.

The drafting committee came up with a new wording, changing the first sentence to read: ‘Muslims are part of Germany’s religious diversity and part of our society.

It also emphasises that an Islam that does not share Germany’s ‘values’ and ‘rejects liberal society’ ‘does not belong in Germany’.

But this statement is also likely to be the subject of debate at the party conference.

Declaration of war on free Europe

The third day of the congress is dedicated to the upcoming elections to the European Parliament (EP).

Today we are also … starting the hot phase of our European election campaign,” said Daniel Caspary, leader of the CDU/CSU group in the EP, on Sunday.

While the party is in favour of increasing Europe’s competitiveness, the CDU’s election campaign will focus on security. According to Caspary, Europe must ‘defend its freedom’ against the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s war of aggression is also an open declaration of war against free Europe. For years he has been waging a hybrid offensive against us Europeans. That’s why Ukraine is also fighting for our freedom,’ said Caspary.

The CDU also wants to increase Europe’s capabilities through a ‘defence union’ and a defence commissioner, echoing the proposal of Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission and CDU candidate for the CDU list.

According to Caspary, this EP election will be a “turning point”. The CDU politician said they wanted a strong ‘pro-European’ awakening and were ‘in favour of a Europe on an equal footing with the rest of the world’.

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German defense minister clears way for Scholz to lead SPD into elections

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Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has officially withdrawn as the Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) top candidate for the upcoming election, ending weeks of speculation about his potential to replace Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In a video message released by the SPD on Thursday evening, Pistorius stated that the ongoing public debate had harmed the party’s unity. He informed the party leadership that he was unsuitable for the chancellorship.

“Olaf Scholz is a strong chancellor and the right candidate for the chancellorship,” Pistorius said, emphasizing that the party leader embodies “reason and common sense.” He further urged, “We now have a joint responsibility to bring this debate to an end because there is a lot at stake.”

When Scholz triggered early elections two weeks ago, many assumed he would automatically serve as the SPD’s candidate, given his role as the incumbent chancellor. However, polls revealed that Pistorius, who has been defense minister since early 2023, had become Germany’s most popular politician, sparking a de facto leadership race.

Scholz faces declining approval ratings

In contrast to Pistorius’ popularity, Scholz suffered from one of the lowest approval ratings among German politicians. Voters blamed him for months of political infighting that crippled the three-way “traffic light” coalition, which ultimately collapsed earlier this month.

Despite this, the SPD central leadership continued to back Scholz. Meanwhile, Pistorius faced increasing criticism for failing to address the leadership speculation. In his video message, Pistorius denied initiating the controversy but acknowledged that it had caused “growing uncertainty” within the party and “resentment” among voters.

He emphasized that the decision to step aside was his own and pledged his full support to Scholz, whom he described as an “extraordinary” chancellor. Pistorius also affirmed his commitment to campaigning for the SPD’s re-election.

Supporters react with disappointment

Pistorius’ withdrawal left many of his supporters disheartened. “I regret this development. The aim now must be to work together and achieve the best possible election result for the SPD,” said Joe Weingarten, an SPD member of parliament, in an interview with Der Spiegel.

Another MP, Johannes Arlt, remarked, “I would have preferred a different decision, but now we have one. It is good for the party and the country. We will now go into the federal election campaign united.”

A two-way race for the chancellorship

With Pistorius stepping down, the race for the chancellorship is now expected to be between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU). Merz, a millionaire and former BlackRock Germany executive, has been polling ahead of Scholz since taking over the CDU leadership in 2022. Scholz’s supporters, however, remain optimistic that he can close the gap and outperform Merz in the upcoming election.

Pistorius: A proponent of German remilitarization

Known for his pragmatic approach to military affairs, Pistorius, 64, earned respect for his tough stance on Russia and advocacy for Germany’s rearmament. Following his appointment as defense minister in 2023, he made clear his opposition to the SPD’s historical reluctance to increase military spending.

Describing Vladimir Putin as “the despot in the Kremlin,” Pistorius warned that Germany must boost defense investments and ensure it is “combat ready.” His hardline approach on security and defense issues distinguished him within the SPD and cemented his popularity among voters.

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Poland urges EU to increase spending on eastern defence

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Poland, NATO’s largest defence spender, has urged its EU partners to bolster border defences with Russia and Belarus. The move aims to demonstrate a firm commitment to European security, particularly in light of Donald Trump’s influence on global defence policies.

Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, the deputy minister responsible for preparations for Poland’s EU presidency, set to begin in January, told The Financial Times (FT) that the EU should invest in strengthening border fortifications and air surveillance systems under the Eastern Shield initiative.

“I think solidarity on the Eastern Shield could help show Trump that, as the EU, we understand what needs to be done for defence. If Trump says he will only work with countries that invest in defence, that’s fine for Poland, because we already spend 4% of GDP on defence. But what about the others? Funding the Eastern Shield would demonstrate the shared commitment of European countries,” Sobkowiak-Czarnecka explained.

The Eastern Shield, announced in May, comprises advanced fortifications and air surveillance systems along Poland’s borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. This initiative is central to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s strategy to counter what he describes as “Russian aggression”, including the “hybrid war” linked to facilitating illegal migration from Belarus into Poland.

The Tusk government has allocated PLN 10 billion (€2.3 billion) for the Eastern Shield as part of broader defence expenditures. These investments will increase Poland’s defence spending from 4.1% of GDP in 2023 to 4.7% by 2025, the highest in NATO and more than double the alliance’s 2% GDP target. In contrast, some EU nations, such as Italy and Spain, have yet to meet this benchmark.

“All our partners must understand that the Eastern Shield is not solely about Poland but also about safeguarding the EU’s borders,” said Sobkowiak-Czarnecka.

Trump’s potential return to the presidency has heightened concerns across EU capitals, given his promises to impose tariffs on the bloc and signals of a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict that could favor Russia.

Sobkowiak-Czarnecka underscored Poland’s commitment to enhancing EU security on multiple fronts, from increasing military equipment production to countering disinformation and securing energy supplies.

“This Polish presidency comes at a critical juncture. As an expert on Ukraine and one of the strongest U.S. allies in Europe, Poland will be a guiding light in these challenging times,” she concluded.

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European energy market in turmoil: Gas prices reach one-year high

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The European energy market faces significant challenges as natural gas prices soar to their highest levels in a year. A combination of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Gazprom’s suspension of natural gas supplies to Austria, and colder-than-expected weather has placed substantial pressure on the market.

Industry representatives acknowledge that while sufficient gas supplies exist, the supply-demand balance remains fragile. Negative developments or geopolitical news could quickly trigger additional price surges.

On Thursday, Dutch TTF futures—a key European natural gas benchmark—rose to €48.8 per megawatt-hour (MWh) (equivalent to $538 per 1,000 cubic meters), a level last observed in November 2023. Since the end of the heating season on 31 March, prices have climbed by more than 150%.

The price surge accelerated on Wednesday after Ukraine targeted Russian territory using British-made Storm Shadow missiles. By the close of the trading day, prices had increased by 2.5%, reaching €46.8/MWh.

On the same day, the United States issued a warning based on intelligence reports, predicting a major air strike in the region. Following this warning, many Western countries evacuated their embassies in Kyiv.

Adding to the tensions, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying nuclear payloads. This event aligns with speculation about changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine and the US’s authorization for Ukraine to target Russian territory with long-range missiles.

While liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia remains low, traders are turning their focus to Europe to capitalize on surging prices, according to Bloomberg.

Despite the increased volatility, Gas Infrastructure Europe reports that gas storage facilities across Europe are 90% full. However, the heating season, combined with freezing temperatures in Northern Europe, has amplified concerns about market stability.

Torgrim Reitan, Equinor’s Chief Financial Officer, emphasized that the market’s fragile balance increases the influence of external factors on pricing dynamics.

The state of pipeline gas supplies from Russia is another major concern. On 16 November, Gazprom halted deliveries to Austria’s OMV, citing unresolved payment issues. The company is attempting to recover part of a €230 million arbitration judgment through this suspension.

Despite this, Gazprom continues to supply 42.4 million cubic meters of gas daily to Europe via Ukraine. However, OMV cannot access these supplies and must turn to other sources, such as Slovakia, to meet Austria’s energy needs. According to OMV officials, Austria’s energy requirements are fully covered by alternative suppliers.

Jon Treacy, editor of the investment newsletter Fuller Treacy Money, noted that although Austria maintains official neutrality, most of OMV’s customers are NATO members. Treacy added that Russia’s “long, cold winter” strategy aims to exert pressure on regions beyond Ukraine over the long term.

Market analysts warn that transit through Ukraine—a minor contributor to the European Union’s total gas imports—could be entirely cut off by January 2024. Such a development would further strain an already delicate market, potentially driving prices even higher.

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