This year’s Group of 20 (G20) summit begins today in Rio de Janeiro, with host nation Brazil emphasizing climate solutions and reform of international institutions. The summit occurs against the backdrop of rising economic inequality and an increasingly fragmented world order.
Leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies, including outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are convening in Rio. Russia has sent a delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House and escalating global conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, are expected to dominate discussions.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, recovering from a recent head injury, will preside over meetings with the African Union, the European Union, and the G20’s 19 other member states. As a former factory worker turned left-wing leader, Lula aims to build on India’s presidency by championing the interests of the Global South—a term describing less affluent economies historically marginalized by institutions dominated by wealthy, predominantly Western countries.
Brazil’s leadership marks a continuation of Global South representation in the G20, following presidencies by Indonesia and India, with South Africa set to take the helm before the United States assumes the role in 2026. This aligns with the recent expansion of BRICS—a multilateral coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—which now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
Sunaina Kumar, a senior fellow at India’s Observer Research Foundation, told Nikkei Asia that the G20 presidency’s rotation is “very important.” She highlighted that successive leadership from Global South nations amplifies their agenda amid a shifting world order. “Brazil built on India’s presidency, and India built on Indonesia,” Kumar explained. “With each presidency, the Global South agenda grows stronger and louder.” She cited the African Union’s inclusion at the 2023 New Delhi summit as a key example.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are leveraging BRICS to promote an alternative to the U.S.-led world order, engaging new partners such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey. While trade within BRICS nations expands, the coalition’s influence within the G20 remains constrained by the divergent priorities of its members.
Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted in a recent report that G20 members like Brazil, India, and South Africa—along with Saudi Arabia, a BRICS invitee—benefit from keeping their strategic options open. He described their dual membership in both groups as an “inside-outside game,” enabling them to advocate for global governance reform in the G20 while fostering counter-hegemonic cooperation through BRICS Plus.
Under Brazil’s leadership, G20 discussions will address modernizing Western-led institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Key agenda items include combating hunger and poverty, addressing climate change, and advancing clean energy initiatives. The summit is expected to culminate in a declaration advocating for peaceful resolutions to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
For Lula, the G20 represents a diplomatic balancing act akin to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s approach. Both leaders have maintained friendly ties with Russia, despite Western efforts to impose sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
This year’s summit also unfolds amid speculation about the potential impact of Trump’s return to the White House. The world is watching to see how the next U.S. administration may shift its policies on Ukraine and Russia. Recently, the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to target Russian territory, underscoring the complexity of U.S. involvement in global conflicts.
Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observed that the G20’s significance has diminished under Biden due to U.S.-China tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. In contrast, the G7 has become “much more important” as a forum for advanced economies. However, Meltzer warned of a “destructive” dynamic that could emerge during a second Trump presidency, similar to his first term’s impact on the G7.
Although Western influence in the G20 may rise under Trump, experts believe that key developing countries will continue to champion the Global South agenda in the years ahead.