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Global South agenda to take centre stage at G20 Summit in Brazil

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This year’s Group of 20 (G20) summit begins today in Rio de Janeiro, with host nation Brazil emphasizing climate solutions and reform of international institutions. The summit occurs against the backdrop of rising economic inequality and an increasingly fragmented world order.

Leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies, including outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are convening in Rio. Russia has sent a delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House and escalating global conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, are expected to dominate discussions.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, recovering from a recent head injury, will preside over meetings with the African Union, the European Union, and the G20’s 19 other member states. As a former factory worker turned left-wing leader, Lula aims to build on India’s presidency by championing the interests of the Global South—a term describing less affluent economies historically marginalized by institutions dominated by wealthy, predominantly Western countries.

Brazil’s leadership marks a continuation of Global South representation in the G20, following presidencies by Indonesia and India, with South Africa set to take the helm before the United States assumes the role in 2026. This aligns with the recent expansion of BRICS—a multilateral coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—which now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sunaina Kumar, a senior fellow at India’s Observer Research Foundation, told Nikkei Asia that the G20 presidency’s rotation is “very important.” She highlighted that successive leadership from Global South nations amplifies their agenda amid a shifting world order. “Brazil built on India’s presidency, and India built on Indonesia,” Kumar explained. “With each presidency, the Global South agenda grows stronger and louder.” She cited the African Union’s inclusion at the 2023 New Delhi summit as a key example.

Meanwhile, Russia and China are leveraging BRICS to promote an alternative to the U.S.-led world order, engaging new partners such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey. While trade within BRICS nations expands, the coalition’s influence within the G20 remains constrained by the divergent priorities of its members.

Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted in a recent report that G20 members like Brazil, India, and South Africa—along with Saudi Arabia, a BRICS invitee—benefit from keeping their strategic options open. He described their dual membership in both groups as an “inside-outside game,” enabling them to advocate for global governance reform in the G20 while fostering counter-hegemonic cooperation through BRICS Plus.

Under Brazil’s leadership, G20 discussions will address modernizing Western-led institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Key agenda items include combating hunger and poverty, addressing climate change, and advancing clean energy initiatives. The summit is expected to culminate in a declaration advocating for peaceful resolutions to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

For Lula, the G20 represents a diplomatic balancing act akin to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s approach. Both leaders have maintained friendly ties with Russia, despite Western efforts to impose sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

This year’s summit also unfolds amid speculation about the potential impact of Trump’s return to the White House. The world is watching to see how the next U.S. administration may shift its policies on Ukraine and Russia. Recently, the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to target Russian territory, underscoring the complexity of U.S. involvement in global conflicts.

Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observed that the G20’s significance has diminished under Biden due to U.S.-China tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. In contrast, the G7 has become “much more important” as a forum for advanced economies. However, Meltzer warned of a “destructive” dynamic that could emerge during a second Trump presidency, similar to his first term’s impact on the G7.

Although Western influence in the G20 may rise under Trump, experts believe that key developing countries will continue to champion the Global South agenda in the years ahead.

DIPLOMACY

Israel concerned about Trump’s Syria troop withdrawal plan

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Israel is concerned about US President Donald Trump’s intention to withdraw thousands of American troops from Syria, Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported.

KAN reported that senior White House officials conveyed to their Israeli counterparts the message that Trump plans to withdraw thousands of US troops from Syria.

In the news report, it was stated that the withdrawal of US forces from Syria would cause great concern in Tel Aviv, and it was evaluated that ‘this move is expected to affect the Kurds in Syria’.

It was noted that Trump’s plan to withdraw thousands of American troops from Syria has caused concerns in the political and military spheres in Israel.

‘Occupation is permanent’

Israeli Defence Minister Yisrael Katz emphasized that Israel will be ‘permanent’ on the Sheikh (Hermon) Mountain, where it expanded its occupation of the Golan Heights, which is Syrian territory according to international law.

According to the statement made by the Israeli Ministry of Defence, Katz stressed that Israel would establish contact with ‘friendly peoples’ in southern Syria and said, ‘We will especially focus on the large Druze communities that have historical and close family ties with our Druze brothers and sisters in Israel.’

The Israeli army also shared images of the ‘temporary’ military outposts it established on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights, where it expanded its occupation.

The Israeli army, which entered the buffer zone around the Golan Heights after the overthrow of the Assad regime, carried the occupation further and entered 20 kilometers close to the capital Damascus.

Trump and Netanyahu to meet on 4 February

On the other hand, it was announced that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet at the White House on 4 February.

In a written statement made by the Israeli Prime Minister’s Press Office, it was detailed that Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to the White House after he took the presidency for the second time.

According to the Israeli press, Trump and Netanyahu are expected to discuss regional issues, especially the ceasefire in Gaza.

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Russia’s military presence in Syria faces uncertain future

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After the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government, the new Syrian government opposes Russia’s military presence in Syria, and Moscow’s attempts to persuade it have failed. For the first time since Bashar al-Assad’s departure, a Russian delegation traveled to Damascus for talks. However, Moscow faces a strong opponent: Türkiye, which does not want the bases to remain.

A source familiar with the situation told Bloomberg that Russia has been unable to reach an agreement on maintaining the bases. Negotiations with the new Syrian government have reached an impasse, the source said. Russian activities at the Khmeimim airbase have been restricted, while two military ships had to wait weeks for permission to dock in Tartus to transport military equipment.

Türkiye, which supports the opposition, opposes Russia’s continued military presence in Syria. Two senior Turkish officials told Bloomberg that it is highly doubtful the new administration would allow Russia to remain in the bases after Russian warplanes attacked opposition forces during the civil war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had supported Assad militarily and helped him avoid defeat in the post-Arab Spring war. This was achieved through intensive bombing of opposition-held Syrian cities by the Russian military—a tactic now being used in Ukraine.

On Tuesday, a Russian delegation arrived in Damascus, including Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and the Russian President’s Special Envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, TASS reported. It was the first visit by Russian officials to Damascus since Assad stepped down as Syrian president in December, the state news agency said.

The two Russian transport ships, Sparta and Sparta II, were able to enter the harbor in recent days after weeks of waiting near the Tartus base. This followed Tartus Customs Director Riyad Judi’s announcement that the new Syrian administration had canceled the agreement signed in 2019 with Stroytransgaz to invest in the port (signed for 49 years; the base was leased for the same period).

Satellite imagery shows that Sparta II has left the port, and a significant portion of the containers and military equipment it brought has also disappeared.

“After the cancellation of the 49-year lease, it has become very clear that Russia has no hope of maintaining its military presence in Tartus, and therefore there seems to be no point in continuing to stay there and delay the evacuation,” maritime analyst Frederik van Lokeren told the BBC.

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EU-Türkiye diplomacy prioritizes energy cooperation amid regional tensions

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Türkiye is initiating a diplomatic push to revive energy negotiations with the European Union, emphasizing its potential as a major natural gas supplier after previous talks were derailed by tensions with Cyprus.

Faruk Kaymakcı, Türkiye’s permanent representative to the EU, told POLITICO on Sunday that energy cooperation would take center stage as part of efforts to improve relations, which also include trade discussions and collaboration on conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

This initiative comes as EU member states, including Hungary and Slovakia, seek alternatives to Russian gas following the expiration of a transit agreement allowing gas imports through Ukraine earlier this year.

Kaymakcı stated, “We have the Southern Gas Corridor. We have 18 billion cubic meters of gas, mostly from Azerbaijan, and we can easily expand it by connecting it to Mediterranean gas. Our role is there, our potential is there.”

High-level energy trade talks between Türkiye and the EU were suspended in 2019 after a dispute between Ankara and EU member Southern Cyprus over gas drilling rights in the Mediterranean. According to a statement from the Council of Europe, Turkish companies sought to extract fossil fuels “in Cypriot territorial waters.” Cyprus and Greece, also vying to benefit from these resources, have consistently opposed Türkiye’s actions.

Kaymakcı criticized the EU’s approach, saying, “We see this as a lose-lose situation. Türkiye is one of the three or four main energy arteries; it is up to the EU whether it utilizes it or not.”

He further claimed that only Cyprus currently opposes the resumption of energy dialogue. “They may not need much energy in the sunny Mediterranean,” he said, “but most member states say they need more energy, more diversification. So this will continue,” he added.

Beyond facilitating the transport of Azerbaijani gas and exporting its domestic reserves, Türkiye also imports Russian fuel via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea. Following the expiration of the Kremlin’s transit deal with Ukraine on January 1, this undersea route has become Moscow’s sole connection for supplying Europe.

“With the Ukraine-Russia deal expiring at the beginning of the year, TurkStream becomes even more important,” noted Kadri Taştan, an energy analyst at the German Marshall Fund. “The price of gas is still an issue for the EU, and Türkiye’s position is therefore becoming much stronger.”

Despite the European Commission’s assertion that the expiration of the Ukrainian transit deal will not create supply shortages, Hungary and Slovakia argue otherwise. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán threatened on Friday to block the renewal of the EU’s all-Russian sanctions framework unless Ukraine agreed to restart the transit route.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in December, “We will not extend the transit of Russian gas. We will not allow them to make additional billions on our blood.” However, on Saturday, Zelensky indicated that Kyiv is open to transiting Azerbaijani gas through its pipelines, provided Moscow does not benefit financially.

 

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