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India’s foreign policy and relations with the Taliban

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Indian diplomat J.P Singh, who is in charge of Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan affairs in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, visited Kabul recently and held enormous meetings and discussions with senior Taliban officials, including Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob and Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. Although many details of these meetings have not been published, the Times of India in a report on this trip called it a “fundamental progress” in the relations between India and the Taliban.

The Ministry of Defense of the Taliban also said that the two sides emphasized their common desire to expand bilateral relations, especially in the fields of humanitarian cooperation and other issues, and expressed their interest in strengthening more interactions between Afghanistan and India.

The Times of India has evaluated this meeting as a “strategic change in India’s approach to Afghanistan”; in the sense that the Taliban’s repeated assurances that Afghanistan’s soil will not be used against India, probably influenced India’s decision to increase its interactions with Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban.

This shows that the Taliban, after taking control of Afghanistan, do not shy away from any attempt for international and regional recognition as well as interaction with the regional and world powers, that is just for the purpose of legitimizing their ruling.

India’s relations with the Taliban and its challenges for the country’s regional strategies is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires a more detailed analysis.

After the Taliban’s control of Afghanistan and the fundamental change in the political and security equations of the region, India also sought to review its policies towards Afghanistan and the Taliban. This relationship, although designed to protect India’s immediate interests in the region, is undoubtedly not without significant strategic concerns.

India’s instrumental policy in Afghanistan

India’s foreign policy in Afghanistan was not originally based on the values ​​of the Non-Aligned Movement and its historical relations with Afghanistan. This has become more intense especially after the coming to power of the Hindu Nationalist Party led by Narendra Modi. Since Modi’s party came to power, India’s policy towards Afghanistan has become more of a political game focused on short-term interests. In this policy, the element of enmity with Islam and negation of cultural and historical relations with the Muslim countries of the region has become a decisive element.

Joint secretary of India’s Ministry of External Affairs, J.P. Singh, meets with acting Afghanistan defense minister of Taliban Muhammad Yaqoob Mujahid.

As tensions escalate between Pakistan and the Taliban, known as Pakistan’s former proxies, India is once again considering using Afghanistan as a tool to counter Pakistan. In this framework, while establishing relations with the Taliban on the one hand, on the other hand, India seeks to create more tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to somehow achieve its goals against Pakistan.

India’s policies in this regard have not only led to the consolidation of the Taliban’s power in Afghanistan, but have also indirectly fueled the expansion of tensions and instability in the region. The instrumental use of Afghanistan and the escalation of differences between Afghanistan and Pakistan have generally been the defining element of India’s foreign policy.

India has always tried to use every opportunity to weaken Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan, even if this leads to the strengthening of extremist groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). This approach is not only harmful for India in the long run, but it can turn the region into a clash of strategic and security interests, which will not benefit any of the countries in the region.

India’s transactional and dual policy in Afghanistan

India has always abandoned its allies in Afghanistan and has never acted as a strategic partner during difficult times, especially after the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in 15 August 2021 at least.

This is evident from India’s behavior towards Dawood Khan’s government, Dr. Najibullah and his government members and even Hamid Karzai and his government members who had close relations with India and considered India as their natural ally. After the Taliban came to power, India cut ties with these people, which shows the instability and lack of loyalty in India’s foreign policy. Even when Afghanistan needed vital and strategic help, India did not stand by the people of Afghanistan as a strategic ally.

This fact can be seen in India’s severance of relations with Hamid Karzai and members of his government who strongly trusted India. This move of India even shows lack of commitment to strategic cooperation and disloyalty to diplomatic principles.

India prevented Afghan students from entering the country even in critical situations when Afghan youth needed support, and many Afghan students who were studying in Indian universities were not allowed to finish their studies.

Unlike Pakistan, India has never been loyal to its allies in Afghanistan as strategic partners. Even when many Afghans were trying to escape from Taliban rule, India closed its gates to them and many people who took refuge in India did not have their visas extended.

Security challenges and threats

Strengthening India’s relations with the Taliban can bring new security threats to Afghanistan in the long run. One of the most important risks arising from these relations is the strengthening of (TTP), which has now become one of the serious threats to the security of Pakistan and the region.

TTP has had influence in the border areas of Afghanistan since the past, and even in some areas, it is difficult to separate them from the Afghan Taliban. This influence and links have made the Pakistani Taliban to enjoy a powerful position and, regardless of the official relations between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan, they have organized themselves and organized complex attacks inside Pakistan.

India must understand that this situation could even be considered as a serious threat to India itself, because TTP can become a symbol of inspiration for Islamic extremist forces inside India and endanger India’s security by expanding the scope of violence and instability in the region.

Long-term consequences and strategic problems

In the long term, strengthening India’s relationship with the Taliban will lead to other regional actors, including Pakistan, taking advantage of this situation to weaken India’s position. This approach can strengthen extremist ideologies and asymmetry in India’s policies towards Afghanistan.

The Taliban, who present themselves as a “legitimate” government, will use these relationships to strengthen their international standing. While this can introduce India as an unstable actor without a clear policy in the region.

Already, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that instability in Pakistan was fueled by an “Indian proxy war”, pointing to regional rivalries as a key factor. Asif also described the use of Afghanistan’s territory for attacks on Pakistan as an “action of aggression” following a deadly explosion in Quetta of Pakistan that killed at least 26 people, including 16 soldiers and 61 others received injuries.

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Sharaa reportedly met with Israeli official in Abu Dhabi

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A source speaking to the Syria-based independent news site Al Jumhuriya claimed the meeting between the Israeli National Security Advisor and al-Sharaa was “an important step for Syrian-Israeli negotiations.” According to the source, this was not the first time the two have met.

It was already known that Israel and the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa, which established an interim administration after overthrowing the Assad government with the leadership of HTS, were conducting normalization talks. According to a report by Ynet News based on diplomatic sources, the “quiet” talks between Syria and Israel are not aimed at full normalization but rather at a limited security agreement between the parties.

The report suggests that the common ground for this process is the Syrian leader’s goal of attracting foreign investment and securing the easing of sanctions, combined with Israel’s concerns about the security of its northern borders. The process is expected to be based on a security-focused compromise without full normalization, rather than a warm peace or the opening of mutual embassies.

A source familiar with the matter defined the limits of these expectations, stating, “Anyone who thinks they’ll be eating falafel in Damascus can keep dreaming.”

A potential agreement between the two countries could reportedly include clauses on security guarantees, joint commitments against terrorist activities, limiting Iranian influence, and restricting armed groups in areas near the border. It has been previously claimed that Israel used Syrian airspace for its attacks on Iranian targets, suggesting some form of covert, if not official, coordination between the two nations.

According to Ynet, the Israel-Syria talks are based on the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement, which ended the 1973 war. This agreement defined borders, troop deployments, and surveillance mechanisms. Israeli officials argue that if Syria significantly distances itself from Iranian influence, this agreement could be updated and adapted to address current threats.

Approximately two months ago, US President Donald Trump met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, marking the first meeting between a US President and a Syrian leader in 25 years. A White House statement reported that Trump asked al-Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel and expel Palestinian armed groups. In his remarks following the meeting, Trump stated that the US was considering steps toward normalization with Syria’s new government, a process initiated by this high-level contact. He added that easing sanctions was intended to give Syria a “new beginning.”

Following the historic meeting, al-Sharaa declared, “Syria is determined to be a country open to peace and cooperation. It will remain faithful to every hand of goodwill extended to it.” He continued, “Syria will no longer be an arena for power struggles or a stage for foreign ambitions. We will not allow our country to be fragmented or fall prey to the narratives of the previous regime that sought to divide our people. Syria belongs to all Syrians.”

In the wake of this process, the Trump administration first lifted sanctions against Syria and then announced that HTS would be removed from the US list of terrorist organizations.

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Israel details plan for ‘humanitarian zone’ in Rafah, called a ‘concentration camp’ by critics

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Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has announced that a plan is being developed to relocate the entire civilian population of the Gaza Strip to a closed “humanitarian zone” to be built on the ruins of Rafah. However, experts describe this plan as a “concentration camp” for all Palestinians in Gaza.

Katz stated that he has instructed the Israeli army to prepare a plan for establishing a “humanitarian zone” on the ruins of Rafah, adding that the ultimate goal of this artificial settlement is to house the entire population of the Gaza Strip.

According to Katz, approximately 600,000 Palestinians, primarily from the Al-Mawasi area, will be transferred to this zone in the first phase after security screenings. The defense minister also explicitly stated that the relocated civilians will not be permitted to leave the area.

Under the plan, security for the zone will be provided by the Israeli army, but military forces will not govern the area or distribute humanitarian aid. Katz noted that they are seeking international partners to manage the zone. The plan is being coordinated by Amir Baram, the Director-General of the Ministry of Defense and former Deputy Chief of the General Staff.

Message of an ‘impending migration plan’

In a briefing with journalists, Defense Minister Katz outlined Israel’s strategy to weaken Hamas, listing key objectives such as targeting the organization’s leadership, seizing territorial control, demilitarizing Gaza, and what he described as a “migration plan that will be implemented.”

Katz stated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leading the process of identifying countries willing to accept Gazans.

However, according to an official who spoke to Haaretz, the Israeli government does not consider the population transfer plan to be realistic, and no preparations are currently underway to facilitate a mass migration from Gaza. Israel has reportedly offered to send Palestinian refugees to several countries, but none have accepted.

A crime against humanity

Michael Sfard, one of Israel’s leading human rights lawyers, said Katz’s plan violates international law.

“He (Katz) has laid out an operational plan for a crime against humanity. It is nothing less than that,” Sfard said. “This is nothing short of preparing for the transfer of the population to the southern tip of the Gaza Strip and their expulsion from the Strip,” he added.

Speaking to The Guardian, Sfard explained, “To expel someone from their homeland is a war crime in the context of war. If it is done on a mass scale, as he plans, it becomes a crime against humanity.”

Professor Amos Goldberg, a Holocaust historian at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, also stated that the defense minister has put forth clear plans for ethnic cleansing in Gaza and the establishment of “a concentration camp or transit camp before deporting the Palestinians.”

Professor Goldberg noted that Katz’s plan raises the question of what will happen to Palestinians who refuse to comply with Israel’s order to move to the new settlement. “What will happen if the Palestinians, not being completely helpless, do not accept this solution and revolt?” he added.

Contradiction with the General Staff’s statement

On the morning of the same day, the Israeli General Staff informed the High Court that the army was not carrying out forced population evacuations within or outside of Gaza. A statement from the office of Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir claimed that objectives such as “displacing the population or concentrating them in specific areas” were not part of their operational plans.

However, this statement contradicts the “Gideon’s Chariots” operational order given to the army in May. According to this document, previously revealed by the Haaretz newspaper, one of the operation’s goals was explicitly stated as “managing and displacing the civilian population.” The Israeli army confirmed the details in the report but did not issue an official statement.

Meanwhile, speaking at the White House on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the US and Israel are working with other countries that will offer Palestinians a “better future.”

As he prepared for dinner with Trump, Netanyahu said, “If people want to stay, they can stay, but if they want to leave, they should be able to leave.”

Concentration camps under GHF’s purview

Separately, Reuters reported that the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a US and Israeli-backed aid organization, has proposed the construction of camps described as “Temporary Humanitarian Settlement Areas,” which could be established both inside and outside of Gaza.

The relationship between this proposal and the plan announced by Katz is unclear, but Israel is known to be involved in the establishment and activities of the GHF.

The plan, uncovered by Reuters, aims to “end Hamas’s control over the population” by placing the people of Gaza in these areas.

This nearly $2 billion plan was presented to the Trump administration and was recently discussed at the White House. The presentation document, which is undated but contains photos from February 11, states that the GHF is trying to secure over $2 billion to build large-scale “Temporary Humanitarian Settlement Areas” inside and outside Gaza.

The plan reportedly began at the end of May with the GHF opening food distribution points in Gaza, with these camps being the second phase.

According to the document reviewed by Reuters, the camps are described as “voluntary areas” where the people of Gaza can “be temporarily housed, de-radicalized, reintegrated into society, and prepared for resettlement if they wish.”

The presentation file obtained by Reuters delves into technical details, including how these camps would be built and their costs. According to a timeline in the presentation, a camp project would become operational within 90 days of its launch and would house 2,160 people, along with a laundry, showers, toilets, and a school.

A source involved in the project said this presentation is part of a planning process that began last year and envisions the construction of eight camps, each capable of housing hundreds of thousands of people.

However, the plan does not provide clear information on how or by what means Palestinians would be moved to these camps. It is also unclear where the camps might be established outside of Gaza. On a map, arrows pointing to Egypt and Cyprus, along with the phrase “other possible destinations,” are noteworthy.

The document states that these large-scale facilities will be used to “build a relationship of trust with the local population” and to “realize President Donald Trump’s vision for Gaza.”

The GHF has denied submitting such a proposal, stating that the slides in the document are not theirs and that they were only “exploring theoretical options for safely delivering aid to Gaza.”

However, the cover of the presentation features the GHF’s name, and some slides mention SRS (Safe Reach Solutions), a company founded by former CIA agent Philip Reilly that provides logistics and security services for the GHF.

A source working on the project indicated that the plan has not progressed due to a lack of funding. Reuters previously reported that the GHF wanted to open a bank account in Switzerland to collect donations, but banks such as UBS and Goldman Sachs refused to work with the GHF.

On February 4, Trump publicly announced for the first time that they “want to take over Gaza and turn it into the Riviera of the Middle East,” which would require the relocation of 2.3 million Palestinians.

Tony Blair’s team also involved

Meanwhile, the Financial Times recently reported that the Tony Blair Institute (TBI), the think tank of former British Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair, is pursuing a project led by Israeli businesspeople that includes a manufacturing zone named after Elon Musk.

It was revealed that this project is the same plan that the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) worked on and presented to Trump, which envisions de-Palestinizing Gaza and redeveloping it as the “Middle East Riviera.” The TBI is reportedly partnering with BCG on this project. Both TBI and BCG have denied the allegations.

A spokesperson for Tony Blair said the former prime minister has not spoken with the planners and has not commented on the plans.

“The TBI team is in discussion with many different groups and organizations with ‘post-war plans’ for Gaza, but it has no involvement in the writing of this plan,” the spokesperson said.

A BCG spokesperson denied the claims, stating: “We completely deny this work. BCG has not received any payment for this work.”

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US to remove Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from terror list

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Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that overthrew the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria and established a transitional government in Damascus, is set to be removed from the US list of foreign terrorist organizations despite its past connections to al-Qaeda and the al-Nusra Front. According to an internal US State Department memo, this decision was made concurrently with President Donald Trump’s lifting of sanctions against Syria.

The memo, signed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on June 23 and formalized on July 7, stated that “following consultations with the Departments of Justice and Treasury, the al-Nusra Front, also known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, will be removed from the list of foreign terrorist organizations.”

Established in 2012 as al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, the al-Nusra Front later changed its name to HTS in an effort to evade US sanctions. Anti-Assad operations conducted by the Pentagon and CIA, which utilized al-Qaeda-like sectarian groups, plunged Syria into a 14-year proxy war that began in 2011.

The anti-Assad front, supported by countries including the US, Israel, the United Kingdom, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Türkiye, achieved its objectives on the ground on December 8, 2024, when jihadist groups led by HTS seized control of Damascus.

Al-Shara declared interim President as Trump lifts sanctions

HTS leader Ahmed al-Shara, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, for whom the US had placed a bounty, declared himself interim president after taking control of Damascus. Following this development, the Western world began to ease the sanctions that were imposed during the Assad era.

Despite documented sectarian massacres in March, where groups affiliated with HTS killed over 1,600 civilians in coastal cities with large Alawite populations, US President Donald Trump announced his intention to lift sanctions during a visit to Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, in May. He met with HTS leader Ahmed al-Shara during the same visit.

Last week, Trump signed a presidential decree lifting sanctions on Syria. A White House statement claimed that this step “aims to support the path to stability and peace.”

US demands normalization with Israel and distance from Palestinian resistance

In exchange for lifting the sanctions, the US administration has made several demands of the new Syrian government. These demands include normalizing relations with Israel, severing ties with “foreign terrorists”—referring to Iran-linked groups—and banning Palestinian resistance organizations.

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