According to the 2025 Threat Assessment Report from the US Intelligence Community, the umbrella organization for 18 separate intelligence agencies, Hamas retains the capacity to sustain low-intensity guerrilla warfare and remains a primary political actor in Gaza. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, noted as weakened post-war, is still described as posing a threat to Israel and the US.

According to a report in Haaretz, the assessment predicted that “tension will persist regarding the situation in Gaza, as well as in the Israel-Hezbollah and Israel-Iran dynamics” and stated that Hamas “will continue to pose a threat to Israel’s security even in its weakened state.”

The report also noted that Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel disrupted the diplomatic progress achieved through the Abraham Accords and the trend toward stability in the Middle East.

Pointing out that Hamas has preserved thousands of its fighters and a significant portion of its underground infrastructure, the report warned that the organization “likely used the ceasefire to bolster its military capacity and replenish ammunition stocks.”

The report stated, “Hamas retains the capacity to reignite low-intensity guerrilla resistance and will remain the dominant political actor in Gaza for the foreseeable future. The low expectations among the parties for a permanent ceasefire and the absence of a post-war political and reconstruction plan point towards instability that could last for years.”

Noting that support for Hamas among Palestinians in the West Bank is higher compared to the Palestinian Authority, the report assessed that “the long-term trajectory of Israeli-Palestinian relations will depend on developments in the increasingly unstable West Bank.”

The report also highlighted that the Palestinian Authority’s capacity to provide security and public services in the West Bank is progressively weakening, emphasizing that Israeli operations in the West Bank, attacks by Jewish settlers, and the activities of Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas, could further deepen the governance crisis.

It added, “A potential leadership change within the Palestinian Authority could exacerbate governance challenges. Furthermore, how Israel will govern post-war Gaza and whether its operations in the West Bank will undermine the Palestinian Authority will also be crucial factors.”

The report also drew attention to the fragile dynamics between Israel and Lebanon, warning that a resumption of large-scale Israeli operations in Lebanon could heighten sectarian tensions, weaken Lebanese security forces, and worsen the humanitarian crisis.

The report concluded, “Despite being weakened, Hezbollah retains the capacity to target Americans and US interests regionally and globally, and even, to a limited extent, on US soil.”

According to six sources speaking to Reuters, the US has presented Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which seized power in Syria, with a list of conditions to fulfill in exchange for partial sanctions relief. These conditions reportedly include ensuring foreigners do not hold senior management roles.

Two individuals, an American official and a Syrian source knowledgeable about the matter, told the news agency that US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Levant and Syria Natasha Franceschi conveyed the list of demands during a face-to-face meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani. The meeting took place at the Syria donors conference in Brussels on March 18.

The sources indicated that the conditions put forward by the US include Syria “destroying its remaining chemical weapons stockpiles” and “cooperating in the fight against terrorism.”

Additionally, American officials and one source in Washington stated that another demand involves ensuring foreign militants are not appointed to senior government positions within Syria’s administrative structure. Criticism had previously arisen over Syria’s appointment of thousands of foreign militants—including Uyghurs, Jordanians, Chechens, and individuals of other nationalities—to the defense ministry.

According to two sources, Washington also requested that Syria appoint a liaison officer to assist in efforts to locate US journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria more than a decade ago.

The source also indicated that the US wants Syria to issue a statement supporting its own territorial integrity.

Washington reportedly did not provide a specific timeline for the fulfillment of these conditions.

While the HTS administration has not commented on the matter, the US State Department stated, “We do not discuss our private diplomatic conversations publicly.”

Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce mentioned last week that Washington is monitoring the actions of the interim administrators.

Hamas has reportedly agreed to a new Egyptian ceasefire plan that involves the gradual release of five hostages, including the last surviving American hostage.

According to Haaretz, citing the Qatar-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper, a source familiar with the plan stated that Egypt presented a new ceasefire proposal on Monday. Under the proposal, Hamas would release five hostages in stages and provide information about the remaining hostages. In return, an immediate ceasefire would be implemented.

The report indicates that Egyptian mediators proposed broader discussions following the ceasefire, including a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The source emphasized that Egypt wants to pursue this process only with US guarantees.

According to the newspaper’s Egyptian sources, Hamas agreed to release a total of five hostages in exchange for a 50-day ceasefire, releasing one hostage every 10 days. This period would establish a basis for broader negotiations regarding the return of the remaining hostages and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza.

The newspaper claims that Hamas supports the plan, but it has not yet been formally presented to Israel. However, Israeli sources have stated that they are aware of the plan’s existence.

However, Israel is reportedly insisting on the release of 11 hostages, approximately half of the total number believed to be held by Hamas. An Israeli official speaking to Haaretz confirmed that this demand remains in place.

Hamas sources say they expect Israel’s position to change soon.

Egypt’s latest plan is based on a recent proposal by US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, who participated in negotiations in Doha. Key elements of the plan include the release of five hostages, including an Israeli soldier and Edan Alexander, the last surviving American hostage, and providing Israel with information about the hostages’ health conditions. In return, Israel would allow humanitarian aid into Gaza and halt its attacks.

According to a Reuters report yesterday, a different proposal presented by Egypt last week stipulates that Hamas would release all remaining hostages at the end of negotiations, in exchange for a US-guaranteed timeline for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Under this proposal, Hamas would release five hostages each week. Simultaneously, Israel would implement the second phase of the January ceasefire.

According to Reuters, the US and Hamas have approved this proposal, but Israel has not yet given a formal response.