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Japan nervous about Trump’s potential tariffs

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The Japanese press described the meeting between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Donald Trump in Washington last week as “successful.”

However, observers noted that although tariffs were not mentioned in the joint statement issued after the meeting at the White House, Japan remains concerned about such taxes.

At their first summit on Friday, the leaders reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to Japan’s defense, including “nuclear deterrence against China.” They also discussed multilateral defense cooperation.

Pushing Tokyo to invest in American energy and technology, Trump made it clear that Washington wants to reduce its $68 billion trade deficit with Japan and argued that the problem can be solved without resorting to tariffs.

Prior to the meeting, there were concerns in Japan that Trump might insist on a significant increase in defense spending. However, Trump refrained from making such demands and instead praised Japan’s plan to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP.

Japan has long limited its defense spending to 1% of GDP, but in late 2022 pledged to gradually increase this level to 2% by 2027.

Main agenda: Nippon Steel

Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of international political economy at the University of Tokyo, told the South China Morning Post that Trump seemed to have accepted the goal and “there was less emphasis on China and defense.”

“The main target of this meeting was not only trade and China, but also Nippon Steel,” Suzuki said, adding that the meeting was considered successful given how “normal” it was.

According to Suzuki, there were initially concerns that Trump might deviate from his prepared notes and be “hostile” to Ishiba, a political foe of Japan’s late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

“The main goal was to conduct the meeting as normally as possible,” he added.

During the meeting, Trump announced that Japan’s Nippon Steel had abandoned its attempt to buy Pittsburgh-based US Steel for US$14.1 billion and would instead “invest instead of buy.”

The Japanese firm’s attempt to take over US Steel had previously been blocked by former US President Joe Biden on national security grounds.

According to Japanese media, the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Koreans was also raised, and a relative of one of the abductees expressed satisfaction with “winning the support of the United States” and said that the two countries would “join forces against North Korea’s human rights violations.”

Abe is said to have had strong ties with Trump during the Republican’s first term in office and used this advantage to defend Japanese interests on various issues such as North Korea and trade. In December, Trump and his wife Melania hosted a private dinner for Abe’s widow, Akie, at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

Defense pledge and support for Taiwan

Yoichiro Sato, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies at Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University in Japan, said that a successful outcome for Japan during the meeting was Trump’s assurance that Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty would apply to the disputed Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku Islands.

This article states that both sides recognize that an armed attack against any party in Japanese-administered territory would pose a threat to peace and security and that they will take collective action to address this common danger.

Sato noted that in their joint statement, the leaders, for the first time, expressed explicit support for Taiwan’s admission to international groups such as the World Health Organization.

Tarriff threat to semiconductors

Although the tariff issue was not mentioned in the joint statement, Sato said Trump mentioned a “global tariff” on semiconductors to be announced around February 18.

“This will undoubtedly affect Japan as well as major East Asian producers such as Taiwan and South Korea,” Sato said.

“It is unclear at the moment whether Japan will be mentioned as well as Canada, Mexico, and China,” Sato said, adding that if the European Union is targeted in Washington’s next round of tariffs, it is possible that Japan will also be mentioned.

In such a case, Japan’s automobile and steel industries would become “extremely fragile,” Sato said, adding that any decision by Washington on tariffs could be linked to Nippon Steel‘s investment in US Steel.

Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, warned that Washington could make additional demands in the coming months if Tokyo does not take steps to reduce its trade deficit, such as increasing energy imports from the US.

“But at this stage, Tokyo, like all other allies and enemies of the US, is waiting to see what the US demands are, and they are trying to prepare for them as best they can,” Nagy said.

On Sunday, Ishiba identified liquefied natural gas, steel, artificial intelligence, and automobiles as areas where Japanese companies can invest in the United States and pledged to increase such investments to US$1 trillion.

According to the latest data from the US Department of Commerce, Japan was the largest foreign direct investor in the US last year with $783.3 billion, followed by Canada and Germany.

Asia

Chinese navy chief and top nuclear scientist expelled from legislature

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The chief of staff for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, Vice Admiral Li Hanjun, and Liu Shipeng, the deputy chief engineer of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation, were removed from their positions in the country’s legislative body.

Li is the latest in a series of PLA generals and a handful of defense industry executives implicated in a widespread investigation within the military.

In a statement on Friday, the NPC Standing Committee announced, “The Navy Soldiers’ Congress has decided to remove Li Hanjun from his post as a representative to the 14th National People’s Congress.”

The Gansu People’s Congress also dismissed Liu Shipeng from his role as an NPC deputy.

Additionally, the Standing Committee revealed it had voted to remove Miao Hua, a former top general who previously oversaw the PLA’s ideological work, from the Central Military Commission (CMC), China’s highest military command body led by President Xi Jinping.

The removal of Li and Liu from their NPC memberships suggests they are facing serious disciplinary action.

China typically remains silent about purges within the military, and announcements from the NPC are one of the few indicators of such campaigns.

There is little public information available about Li and Liu, as both have worked in sensitive positions.

Before becoming the navy’s chief of staff, Li, 60, was the deputy director of the CMC’s Training and Administration Department. He was appointed to this role after serving for a year in the CMC’s Office for Reform and Organisational Structure.

In 2014, he was promoted to vice admiral upon his appointment as commander of the naval base in Fujian province, where Miao also spent a significant part of his career. At that time, he was the director of training at the China Naval Command College and was soon promoted to president of the school.

According to official media reports, nuclear scientist Liu was born into a family that “served China’s nuclear dream for three generations.”

As the deputy chief engineer at CNNC, which oversees all aspects of China’s civil and military nuclear programs, Liu also served as the Communist Party secretary and president of CNNC’s “404 base” in Gansu.

Covering an area of over 1,000 square kilometers, the base was established in 1958 and is the country’s first and largest nuclear research center. It played a crucial role in the development of China’s first atomic bomb in 1964 and its first hydrogen bomb three years later.

This secretive base is still considered a key hub for China’s nuclear deterrence and nuclear industry.

According to statements from provincial authorities, Liu was named “Gansu’s outstanding entrepreneur” in 2023.

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China, US reach agreement on export controls

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The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday afternoon that Beijing and Washington have remained in close contact since the two-day trade talks in London earlier this month, confirming the details of a framework agreement.

“China will review and approve export applications for controlled items in accordance with its laws and regulations, and the US side will, in turn, lift a series of restrictive measures against China,” the ministry stated.

“We hope the US side will cooperate with China in line with the important consensus and conditions established during the conversation between the two presidents on June 5,” the statement continued.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the US had “signed” a trade deal with China the previous day, without providing details.

“We signed the deal with China yesterday, right? We signed the deal with China,” Trump said at a White House event introducing a budget law. “With the China deal, we are starting to open up China,” he added.

He also mentioned that a “very big” deal, likely with India, would be signed soon.

Rare earth elements

Following the event, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that the US and China had signed an agreement codifying the terms decided upon in previous trade negotiations.

“They will deliver rare earth elements to us,” Lutnick said in a televised interview with Bloomberg, adding that if this commitment is fulfilled, Washington will lift its “countermeasures.”

Rare earth elements, essential for producing high-tech products, including those for the defense industry, were a major point of contention in the trade talks. China holds a near-monopoly on the supply of these minerals due to its massive share of global refining capacity.

Responding to a question on Thursday about rare earth exports, ministry spokesman He Yadong said China had approved a “certain number” of applications and would “continue to strengthen” the review and approval process for eligible applications.

He added that Beijing is willing to “strengthen communication and dialogue” with other countries on export controls and actively promote appropriate trade.

Lutnick also stated that the US plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners in the coming weeks. The deadline for countries to negotiate trade terms before higher tariffs are reinstated was July 9, following a 90-day suspension of import tariff hikes announced on April 2.

The two negotiating teams concluded the London talks by announcing they had agreed “in principle” on a “framework” that both sides would take home for their respective leaders to review, as they sought to get their uneasy truce, signed last month in Geneva, back on track.

The negotiations began after a highly anticipated phone call between Xi Jinping and Trump, which seemingly ended an intractable stalemate.

In the weeks following the initial agreement in Switzerland, Washington claimed China was restricting exports of critical minerals, while Beijing reacted to US restrictions on semiconductors and threats to impose visa barriers on Chinese students.

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China hosts SCO defense ministers on warship amid regional tensions

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Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun hosted his Iranian counterpart and other high-level defense officials from Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states aboard an advanced Chinese warship, just days after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh was among the defense officials welcomed by Dong on a military vessel in the coastal city of Qingdao, China, as part of a two-day SCO defense ministers’ meeting that concluded on Thursday.

According to Chinese state television CCTV, Nasirzadeh and other defense officials toured the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s Type 052D destroyer, the Kaifeng, and later attended a reception on the ship’s deck.

Aboard the ship, Nasirzadeh thanked Beijing for “supporting Iran’s legitimate position following the recent attacks” by Israel and the US.

“We hope that China will continue to stand on the side of justice, help maintain the current ceasefire, and play a greater role in de-escalating regional tensions,” Nasirzadeh said, according to Xinhua.

In his address to the assembled ministers, Dong reportedly stated that “unilateralism, protectionism, and hegemonic and bullying acts are on the rise, seriously disrupting the international order and becoming the greatest source of chaos and conflict.”

Dong called for closer cooperation within the United Nations, the SCO, and other multilateral frameworks, urging members to unite with “more like-minded forces” to defend international justice and maintain global stability.

“SCO countries must remain true to the organization’s founding ideals, uphold the ‘Shanghai Spirit,’ and deepen practical cooperation in all areas,” Dong said. “With stronger actions, we can jointly safeguard a peaceful environment for development,” he added.

The event followed the US attacks on three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities on Saturday, which Beijing strongly condemned.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the attacks on nuclear facilities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency seriously violated the UN Charter and its principles.

Additionally, the SCO meeting coincided with a NATO leaders’ summit in The Hague. In a statement from The Hague, US President Donald Trump announced that the US would hold talks with Iran about a possible nuclear deal “in the coming week.”

Bilateral Talks

According to Xinhua, the Chinese defense minister later held separate bilateral meetings with the defense ministers of Belarus, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The state news agency reported that all parties appreciated Beijing’s efforts and significant contributions to developing SCO operational mechanisms and deepening inter-sectoral cooperation during its rotating presidency. They also expressed a strong will to further consolidate and expand military ties.

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif praised Beijing’s role in de-escalating tensions. “Pakistan highly values its robust friendship with China and is ready to work together to implement its three global initiatives, deepen military cooperation, and help maintain regional peace and stability,” he said.

For Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, this year—the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II, the Chinese people’s war of resistance against Japanese aggression, and the world’s anti-fascist war—presents an opportunity to deepen bilateral military relations. “In line with the consensus of our leaders, we will intensify strategic communication and cooperation and contribute to global strategic stability,” he said.

Meanwhile, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh also attended the Qingdao meeting. This marked the first visit by an Indian defense minister to China since the deadly border clash between the two countries in 2020.

Military trust

According to the Chinese Ministry of Defense, the SCO defense ministers’ meeting is one of the key events held during China’s rotating presidency of the SCO this year. The ministers, along with representatives from the SCO and regional anti-terrorism bodies, gathered to further strengthen military trust and deepen practical cooperation among member states.

The SCO, a 10-nation bloc comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Belarus, currently covers approximately three-fifths of the Eurasian continent and about 43% of the world’s population.

The Beijing meeting, held under the rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, highlighted China’s role as a significant international actor and the importance Tehran places on its relationship with Beijing, even as China has largely remained on the sidelines of the Israel-Iran conflict.

During a regular press conference at the Chinese Ministry of Defense on Thursday, when asked if Beijing was considering providing military support to Iran as an SCO member, ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang told CNN, “China is ready to cooperate with all parties to play a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East.”

Kaifeng destroyer

The Kaifeng destroyer, where the meeting’s reception was held, is the sixth vessel of the extended Type 052D variant and serves in the North Sea Fleet. Commissioned in April 2021, the ship is approximately 159 meters (521 feet) long, weighs 7,500 tons, and is equipped with 517C anti-stealth radar. Its expanded deck allows for the landing of the PLA Navy’s Z-20 helicopters.

The warship has conducted numerous long-range exercises, including a passage through the Tsushima Strait in April, as part of Beijing’s growing operational presence in the western Pacific.

It was publicly displayed during the 74th-anniversary celebrations of the Chinese navy in Qingdao in 2023.

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