Diplomacy
NATO allies unveil multibillion-dollar defense deals in Ankara as Rutte seeks to reassure Trump
NATO allies on Tuesday announced defense industrial agreements worth tens of billions of dollars to acquire surveillance aircraft and advanced unmanned aerial vehicles.
“This is money well spent,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at the opening of a historic NATO summit held in Türkiye.
US President Donald Trump, who landed in Ankara on Tuesday afternoon for the summit, has previously characterized NATO as a “paper tiger” that could not function without US leadership and weaponry.
According to the Financial Times, Rutte announced the agreements on a stage featuring impactful videos and loud techno music, as he sought to convince Trump that European allies are serious about taking greater responsibility for the continent’s defense.
While several of the initiatives announced by Rutte involved major contracts with US companies, many were independent of them.
One of the most expensive items was an agreement to purchase up to 10 surveillance aircraft from a consortium led by Sweden’s Saab and Canada’s Bombardier.
The “GlobalEye” aircraft, which cost between $400 million and $450 million each, will replace NATO’s fleet of 14 AWACS early warning radar surveillance aircraft.
Micael Johansson, President of Saab, stated that the aircraft, early versions of which are already in service, could be delivered starting in 2030 if the agreement is finalized soon.
However, Rutte also announced that allies would purchase a maximum of five Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton high-altitude surveillance drones.
Norway, Finland, Germany, and Denmark signed a letter of intent to purchase these drones, which cost approximately $270 million each, according to recent procurement figures from the US Department of Defense.
“We need a transatlantic defense-industrial revolution. The hum of machinery must become a roar. The money is there, and much more is on the way. But this money needs to work… the security situation demands it,” Rutte said.
These high-profile defense industrial agreements follow Rutte’s visit to Washington late last month, which aimed to address US concerns that several European and Canadian nations were falling short of their defense spending commitments.
At the White House, Rutte presented a chart titled “The Trump Trillion,” which demonstrated that European and Canadian allies had increased their defense spending by $1.2 trillion since 2017.
However, Trump appeared largely unimpressed by Rutte’s presentation and expressed frustration that some NATO allies had refused to participate in the war with Iran. “We don’t need their money. I just want loyalty,” Trump said.
Ahead of the NATO summit, a senior US official noted that Trump had “pre-assessed the extent to which our allies are failing to meet their defense commitments, and he will deliver this message in person.”
The US official added that NATO allies must “be more capable” and “implement the Hague defense commitment as quickly as possible.”
The Hague commitment mandates allocating 5% of GDP to defense by 2035. Rutte stated on Monday that allies would be asked to present “clear, concrete, and credible plans” to achieve this target during the summit. He also warned that if there are countries that need to be persuaded, “we have our ways of doing so,” though he did not elaborate.
In addition to reassuring Trump, a senior European official said the objective behind this surge in defense agreements is to “increase our capacity, ensure interoperability among allies, and generally make progress in deterring anyone who intends to attack us.”
Nevertheless, some of the agreements highlighted the difficulties encountered in NATO’s efforts regarding the transatlantic co-production of new weapons.
German defense company Rheinmetall and US defense giant Lockheed Martin announced progress on a plan to produce rockets and missiles in Germany.
However, after months of discussions, this development fell short of the expectations expressed more than a year ago by Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger.
Those expectations included the licensed production of PAC-3 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems, which have proven vital in protecting Ukrainian cities from Russian ballistic missile attacks.
Instead, the two companies only announced progress on ATACMS missiles, which represent a less high-tech product. The US is currently phasing out these missiles to replace them with a more technologically advanced successor.
In a separate announcement, plans were unveiled to establish a dedicated PAC-3 maintenance facility on European soil. However, the goal of producing PAC-3 interceptor missiles under license in Europe remained an elusive ambition.
Rather than offering a firm commitment, US Under Secretary of Defense Michael Duffey told reporters, “We remain open to the possibility of production outside the US.”
In a statement issued by London, the United Kingdom noted that 12 European nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, will spend more than $50 billion over the next decade to develop long-range precision weapons to strengthen NATO’s defense capabilities.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce the UK-led initiative in Ankara today, and the participating nations will issue a joint declaration containing additional details.
Turkish defense companies to cooperate with Palantir
ASELSAN, ROKETSAN, STM, and TÜBİTAK joined five major new multinational NATO programs during the 2026 NATO Summit held in Ankara.
Haluk Görgün, President of the Defense Industry Agency of Türkiye, announced that ASELSAN, ROKETSAN, STM, and TÜBİTAK will participate in the following five large-scale NATO programs:
- Strike Capabilities
- Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD)
- Space and Surveillance
- Critical Materials for Defense Industry
- Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Superiority
In the strike capabilities program, Diehl of Germany and ROKETSAN of Türkiye are understood to be the primary suppliers. Participating countries in this program include Türkiye, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Norway, Slovakia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
The Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) program is viewed as a massive initiative with a budget of $26.27 billion. The IAMD program will contract ASELSAN, Raytheon, ROKETSAN, Anduril UK, Rheinmetall, Palantir, and Athea. The participating countries are Türkiye, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Greece, and Romania.
Under the Space and Surveillance program, valued at approximately $4 billion, ASELSAN, Isar Aerospace, MLS, ROKETSAN, and TÜBİTAK have been contracted. The participants in this program are Türkiye, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden.
Diplomacy
EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence
The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.
Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.
The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.
In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.
“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:
“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”
Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.
Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.
In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.
Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.
Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.
One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.
The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.
“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:
“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”
Diplomacy
UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic
The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.
According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.
Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.
The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.
The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.
Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.
Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.
To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.
Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.
Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.
In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.
Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.
Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.
This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.
Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.
Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.
Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”
Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.
In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”
Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.
Diplomacy
US drafts post-war Middle East strategy focused on Iran
The US administration is working on a post-war strategy focused on containing Iran and expanding the normalisation of relations between Israel and its neighbours.
According to Axios, although the plan remains in the draft stage, it is intended to guide the US approach to the Middle East once the war with Iran concludes and across the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term in office.
Two major events cast a shadow over the planning process: the Israeli elections scheduled for 27 October and the US midterm elections in November.
US officials state that initial work on the strategy is being conducted both at senior political levels within the Trump administration and at an interagency working level.
According to sources, Trump has held two meetings with senior advisers in recent weeks where the plan was discussed and concepts were floated.
In private conversations, Trump reportedly said he is working on “something much bigger” in the Middle East following the war with Iran.
According to sources, three primary elements have been put forward as prospective components of the strategy:
Establishing a regional alliance among US allies, guaranteed by the US, in order to contain Iran.
Pursuing a joint effort to bring the regional fallout of the 7 October 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood operation toward a conclusion by securing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, signing a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement.
Expanding the Abraham Accords and reaching a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The Trump administration hopes that the new Israeli government formed after the 27 October elections will be willing and able to cooperate on the post-war strategy.
However, some US officials emphasise that Trump will push for the implementation of this strategy regardless of the Israeli election results, even if the vote leads to political deadlock.
A source familiar with the process stated that drafting the strategy would take several more weeks. “They are working on it, but it is not finished yet,” the source said, adding:
“The aim here is to connect many moving parts in the region; how to build a regional alliance after the war. It is not yet clear whether all US allies in the region will participate in this process.”
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