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NATO allies unveil multibillion-dollar defense deals in Ankara as Rutte seeks to reassure Trump

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NATO allies on Tuesday announced defense industrial agreements worth tens of billions of dollars to acquire surveillance aircraft and advanced unmanned aerial vehicles.

“This is money well spent,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at the opening of a historic NATO summit held in Türkiye.

US President Donald Trump, who landed in Ankara on Tuesday afternoon for the summit, has previously characterized NATO as a “paper tiger” that could not function without US leadership and weaponry.

According to the Financial Times, Rutte announced the agreements on a stage featuring impactful videos and loud techno music, as he sought to convince Trump that European allies are serious about taking greater responsibility for the continent’s defense.

While several of the initiatives announced by Rutte involved major contracts with US companies, many were independent of them.

One of the most expensive items was an agreement to purchase up to 10 surveillance aircraft from a consortium led by Sweden’s Saab and Canada’s Bombardier.

The “GlobalEye” aircraft, which cost between $400 million and $450 million each, will replace NATO’s fleet of 14 AWACS early warning radar surveillance aircraft.

Micael Johansson, President of Saab, stated that the aircraft, early versions of which are already in service, could be delivered starting in 2030 if the agreement is finalized soon.

However, Rutte also announced that allies would purchase a maximum of five Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton high-altitude surveillance drones.

Norway, Finland, Germany, and Denmark signed a letter of intent to purchase these drones, which cost approximately $270 million each, according to recent procurement figures from the US Department of Defense.

“We need a transatlantic defense-industrial revolution. The hum of machinery must become a roar. The money is there, and much more is on the way. But this money needs to work… the security situation demands it,” Rutte said.

These high-profile defense industrial agreements follow Rutte’s visit to Washington late last month, which aimed to address US concerns that several European and Canadian nations were falling short of their defense spending commitments.

At the White House, Rutte presented a chart titled “The Trump Trillion,” which demonstrated that European and Canadian allies had increased their defense spending by $1.2 trillion since 2017.

However, Trump appeared largely unimpressed by Rutte’s presentation and expressed frustration that some NATO allies had refused to participate in the war with Iran. “We don’t need their money. I just want loyalty,” Trump said.

Ahead of the NATO summit, a senior US official noted that Trump had “pre-assessed the extent to which our allies are failing to meet their defense commitments, and he will deliver this message in person.”

The US official added that NATO allies must “be more capable” and “implement the Hague defense commitment as quickly as possible.”

The Hague commitment mandates allocating 5% of GDP to defense by 2035. Rutte stated on Monday that allies would be asked to present “clear, concrete, and credible plans” to achieve this target during the summit. He also warned that if there are countries that need to be persuaded, “we have our ways of doing so,” though he did not elaborate.

In addition to reassuring Trump, a senior European official said the objective behind this surge in defense agreements is to “increase our capacity, ensure interoperability among allies, and generally make progress in deterring anyone who intends to attack us.”

Nevertheless, some of the agreements highlighted the difficulties encountered in NATO’s efforts regarding the transatlantic co-production of new weapons.

German defense company Rheinmetall and US defense giant Lockheed Martin announced progress on a plan to produce rockets and missiles in Germany.

However, after months of discussions, this development fell short of the expectations expressed more than a year ago by Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger.

Those expectations included the licensed production of PAC-3 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems, which have proven vital in protecting Ukrainian cities from Russian ballistic missile attacks.

Instead, the two companies only announced progress on ATACMS missiles, which represent a less high-tech product. The US is currently phasing out these missiles to replace them with a more technologically advanced successor.

In a separate announcement, plans were unveiled to establish a dedicated PAC-3 maintenance facility on European soil. However, the goal of producing PAC-3 interceptor missiles under license in Europe remained an elusive ambition.

Rather than offering a firm commitment, US Under Secretary of Defense Michael Duffey told reporters, “We remain open to the possibility of production outside the US.”

In a statement issued by London, the United Kingdom noted that 12 European nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, will spend more than $50 billion over the next decade to develop long-range precision weapons to strengthen NATO’s defense capabilities.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce the UK-led initiative in Ankara today, and the participating nations will issue a joint declaration containing additional details.

Turkish defense companies to cooperate with Palantir

ASELSAN, ROKETSAN, STM, and TÜBİTAK joined five major new multinational NATO programs during the 2026 NATO Summit held in Ankara.

Haluk Görgün, President of the Defense Industry Agency of Türkiye, announced that ASELSAN, ROKETSAN, STM, and TÜBİTAK will participate in the following five large-scale NATO programs:

  • Strike Capabilities
  • Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD)
  • Space and Surveillance
  • Critical Materials for Defense Industry
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Superiority

In the strike capabilities program, Diehl of Germany and ROKETSAN of Türkiye are understood to be the primary suppliers. Participating countries in this program include Türkiye, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Norway, Slovakia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) program is viewed as a massive initiative with a budget of $26.27 billion. The IAMD program will contract ASELSAN, Raytheon, ROKETSAN, Anduril UK, Rheinmetall, Palantir, and Athea. The participating countries are Türkiye, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Greece, and Romania.

Under the Space and Surveillance program, valued at approximately $4 billion, ASELSAN, Isar Aerospace, MLS, ROKETSAN, and TÜBİTAK have been contracted. The participants in this program are Türkiye, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Diplomacy

Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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