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New era in Turkiye-Israel normalization: Decision to appoint ambassadors

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The recent dialogue between Ankara and Tel Aviv aimed at normalizing relations has brought along the decision to bring bilateral relations back to a diplomatic level.

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has announced that they have decided to appoint an ambassador to Tel Aviv within the framework of the mutual maximization of diplomatic relations between Turkiye and Israel.

Stressing that a dialogue process with Tel Aviv started with the election of Isaac Herzog as President, Çavuşoğlu said, “The process continued with Herzog’s visit to Turkiye and then my visit to Israel, the visit of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid to Ankara.”

Announcing the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement in the field of aviation, Çavuşoğlu said that a Mixed Economic Commission meeting would be held at the beginning of September. Israel also announced in early July that it had decided to reopen its Economic and Trade Office, which it had closed at the time of the deterioration of political relations.

Stressing that Turkiye will not give up the Palestinian cause, Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu said, “We will continue to defend the rights of Palestine, Jerusalem and Gaza”.

President Erdogan had also previously made a statement about the resuming relations: “It will allow us to help our Palestinian brothers.”

The emphases on regional matters drew attention

“Israel and Turkiye will return to full normalization of relations, including reinstating ambassadors and consuls-general,” Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said in a statement.

Lapid’s argument that this step would contribute not only to deepening bilateral ties, but to strengthening regional stability drew attention.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog also emphasized the improvement of economic relations and mutual tourism in his Turkish tweet by tagging his counterpart Erdogan on his social media account.

Statement of support from the US

The US Embassy has posted a statement of support for the new period in Ankara-Tel Aviv relations. The following message was shared on the social media account of the Embassy:

“U.S. Embassy Ankara welcomes the news that Turkiye and Israel will exchange ambassadors as part of the normalization of relations between the two countries.”

From ‘One minute’ to normalization

In a session at the World Economic Forum held in Davos in early 2009, then Prime Minister Erdogan reacted to the words of former Israeli President Shimon Peres defending the attacks on Gaza with “One minute” outburst and left the session saying, “Davos is over for me.”

Although this outbreak caused a crisis in bilateral relations, the main breakdown occurred after Israel’s Mavi Marmara attack in 2010. After Israeli commandos raided the Mavi Marmara ship, seeking to break the blockade in Gaza, and killed 9 Turkish citizens, relations were minimized, and diplomatic representation was reduced to the level of charge d ‘affaires.

In 2016, steps were taken to normalize relations and mutual ambassadors were appointed. However, in 2018, Turkiye recalled its ambassador for consultations and asked Israel to take a similar step after Israel opened fire on Palestinians protesting the United States Embassy in Jerusalem, killing 60 people.

The dialogue between the new Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who took office on July 7, 2021, and President Erdogan gave the signals of normalization. Afterwards, during Herzog’s visit to Turkiye on March 9 and 10, steps to improve cooperation were discussed. Herzog became the first Israeli leader to visit Turkiye since 2008.

During a visit to Ankara on June 23 by then Israeli Foreign Minister, current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a statement was made regarding the upgrading of relations to ambassador level, which have been at the level of charge d ‘affaires since 2018. Çavuşoğlu and Lapid announced their decision to start working on mutually reappointing of ambassadors at a press conference.

There are some elements in the ups and downs of relationship between two countries that are perceived as both crises and opportunities:

The Iran factor

Israel has redeveloped its relations with the Gulf countries, trying to establish a line against Iran, which it regards as an ‘existential threat’ in the region. At a time when Iran is close to a nuclear deal, Israel is looking for new actors to expand its frontline in the region.

Tel Aviv, which seeks to include Turkiye in its strategy to balance Iran in the region, recently claimed that the Iranian secret service is planning attacks against Israeli tourists and officials in Turkiye. Following the assassination of Colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, a senior commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the possibility of a “revenge attack” by Iran against Israeli citizens in Turkiye was pointed out.

Turkiye, on the other hand, cooperated with Tel Aviv by conducting operations against some Iranian citizens in line with the intelligence from Israel. Upon this, Israeli President Herzog personally called President Erdogan and thanked him.

While the two countries’ cooperation in the field of intelligence was thought to unsettle Iran, the emphasis on ‘regional stability’ in the leaders’ statements drew attention. It is evident that the cooperation that Turkiye and Israel will develop in the field of military and intelligence will serve Tel Aviv’s strategy of balancing Iran in the region. Therefore, it can be asserted that the Iran factor has an important place in Israel’s desire to get closer to Turkiye.

The Israeli press also reported that both countries “see Iran’s presence in Syria as a threat to their stability” and that they “want to strengthen coordination in Syria.”

Hamas agenda

One of the security issues between Turkiye and Israel is Hamas, one of the Palestinian resistance movements. While Israel designates Hamas as a “terrorist group”, Turkiye denies this.

Last year, Israel announced it required to see Ankara take some steps against the presence of Hamas leaders in Turkiye before starting negotiations on a settlement. Thereupon, the Israeli press claimed that “people identified with Hamas have been deported from Turkiye.” Palestinians living in Turkiye denied the allegations.

It is not certain whether Hamas agenda has come up in the latest talks or whether Israel has made any demands.

The elections factor

On the other hand, elections are approaching in Israel, which have turned into a crisis and will be held for the fifth time in four years.

As Israel’s longest-running prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is being discussed for re-election as Prime Minister on November 1, Lapid, who will race in the election as Prime Minister, is trying to prove his effectiveness and leadership during this period. Therefore, Lapid may consider rapprochement with Turkiye important for his own political future.

Eastern Mediterranean tension

Despite some time of normalization talks between the two countries, tensions are rising in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel has deepened its cooperation with Greece in recent years, while in the Eastern Mediterranean, it frequently holds trilateral and bilateral exercises with Greece and the United States.

The last of these exercises took place on July 13. The two air forces reportedly conducted training exercises “on coping with various scenarios, advancing both countries’ readiness to fight in multiple scenarios and airborne refueling Greek fighter jets.”

In addition, just before his visit to Turkiye, the Israeli President visited Nicosia on March 2 and met with the leader of the Greek Cypriot administration, Nicos Anastasiades, and pledged to him that “rapprochement with Turkiye would not be at the expense of disrupting its strategic relations with Cyprus.”

Israel is also known to be uncomfortable with Turkiye’s presence in Libya and to see it as a threat to its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The gas project…

On the other hand, the Israeli press reported that Erdogan was “in an effort to develop a gas pipeline that would deliver Israeli natural gas directly to Turkiye in order to ease Turkiye’s dependence on Russian gas” and “could aim to use restored relations as a stepping stone.”

In addition to bringing gas from Israel and using it in its domestic market, the project of exporting Israeli gas to Europe via Turkiye has been on the agenda for a long time. Although this is an option for Europe, which is experiencing an energy crisis due to sanctions against Russia after the Ukrainian crisis, it is stated that Israeli gas alone will not be enough. There are also various political and economic uncertainties on the subject.

Israel’s plan to build a pipeline to Southern Cyprus and Greece effectively collapsed after the United States withdrew its support for the East-Med Pipeline Project last year. Whether Tel Aviv will engage in this project with Turkiye at the expense of confronting its partners in the Eastern Mediterranean remains a question mark.

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Trump administration resumes weapon shipments to Ukraine after pause

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The administration of US President Donald Trump has resumed shipments of certain types of weapons to Ukraine after a one-week pause.

According to reports from Reuters and the Associated Press (AP), citing sources familiar with the matter, Kyiv has once again begun receiving 155mm artillery shells and high-precision Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles.

The exact timing of the shipment resumption and the quantity of ammunition sent are unknown.

Previously, the US had frozen the transfer of 8,400 155mm artillery shells, 142 Hellfire missiles, 252 missiles for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, and 30 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems.

Pentagon’s decision caught Trump by surprise

The Pentagon suspended military aid to Ukraine in early July. According to sources speaking to CNN, Trump had instructed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to conduct an audit of weapon stockpiles, and Hegseth, without informing the White House, halted all arms shipments to Ukraine during the audit.

Hegseth’s decision caught Trump by surprise. The White House announced that it had not issued an order to stop military aid to Kyiv.

Following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump promised to provide more weapons to Kyiv and instructed the Pentagon to consider sending an additional Patriot air defense system.

The US President stated, “They are being hit very hard, very hard. So we will look into this matter.”

As noted by The Wall Street Journal, if the US sends a new air defense system to Kyiv, it would be the first time Trump has approved a new shipment of heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Until now, Washington had only continued shipments approved during the tenure of former President Joe Biden.

US quadruples Patriot procurement

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the US military plans to allocate more than $1.3 billion for the procurement of missiles for Patriot air defense systems in the new fiscal year starting October 1.

The report stated that the Pentagon has “quietly” quadrupled the total planned procurement volume of these air defense missiles.

According to the report, a group of senior military officials responsible for determining defense needs revised the procurement parameters in April, increasing the planned number of interceptor missiles from 3,376 to 13,773.

Bloomberg emphasized that this sharp increase in procurement volume highlights the US military’s growing reliance on PAC-3 MSE missiles in particular.

This situation also aligns with the efforts of the US and its allies to strengthen their air and missile defense systems.

For example, Ukraine relies heavily on Patriot batteries and the missiles supplied for these systems to repel intense Russian attacks on its cities.

According to budget records, the US had purchased 2,047 of these missiles by the start of the 2024 fiscal year. An additional 230 were acquired in 2024, and 214 in 2025.

For the year 2026, $945.9 million has been requested for the procurement of 224 new interceptor missiles. Of this amount, $549.6 million will come from the base budget, and $396.3 million will be covered under the “Atlantic Resolve” program, which aims to strengthen NATO’s defense in Europe.

Kremlin: Military aid will not end the war

The Kremlin has stated that the continuation of military aid to Ukraine will not contribute to ending the war.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “It will take time to definitively clarify which specific shipments, and in what quantities, will continue to arrive in Ukraine from the US.”

However, according to sources close to the Kremlin speaking to The New York Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Ukraine’s defense could collapse in the coming months and refuses to halt the conflict without significant concessions from Kyiv.

The news site Axios reported that during his phone call with Zelenskyy, Trump promised to urgently send ten interceptor missiles for Patriot systems to Kyiv.

Before this call, Trump had met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz had called for the resumption of missile shipments and expressed readiness to purchase additional Patriot batteries from the US to transfer to Ukraine.

According to sources, although no concrete agreement was reached, the matter continues to be discussed.

In a statement to the press at the White House, Trump also confirmed his intention to increase arms shipments to Kyiv, stating, “They must be able to defend themselves. They are taking very heavy blows right now.”

The Pentagon also confirmed that, on Trump’s instructions, additional “defensive weapons” will be sent so that Ukraine can maintain its positions until a lasting peace is achieved.

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US buyers bypass China’s critical mineral ban via Thailand and Mexico

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According to customs and shipping records, an extraordinary flow of antimony—a metal used in batteries, chips, and flame retardants—began entering the US from Thailand and Mexico after China banned shipments to the US last year. Records obtained by Reuters indicate that at least one Chinese company is involved in this trade, revealing how US buyers of critical minerals are circumventing China’s export ban.

China dominates the supply of antimony, as well as gallium and germanium, which are crucial for telecommunications, semiconductors, and military technology. On December 3, Beijing banned the export of these minerals to the US following pressure from Washington on China’s chip sector.

Trade data suggests that US shipments are being rerouted through third countries, a situation that Chinese officials have acknowledged. This assessment was confirmed by executives from two US companies, who told Reuters they have sourced restricted minerals from China in recent months.

According to US customs data, the US imported 3,834 metric tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December and April. This volume is nearly greater than the total from the previous three years combined. Meanwhile, Chinese customs data shows that Thailand and Mexico have become top-three destinations for China’s antimony exports this year. Neither country ranked in the top 10 in 2023, the last full year before Beijing imposed the restrictions.

According to the consulting firm RFC Ambrian, there is only one antimony smelter across both Thailand and Mexico, with the Mexican facility having reopened in April. Neither country mines significant quantities of the metal. Despite higher prices, US imports of antimony, gallium, and germanium this year are on pace to meet or exceed pre-ban levels.

Ram Ben Tzion, co-founder and CEO of the digital shipment inspection platform Publican, stated that while there is clear evidence of transshipment, the trade data does not allow for the identification of the specific companies involved. “This is a pattern we’ve seen, and it’s consistent,” he told Reuters, adding that Chinese companies are “extremely creative in circumventing regulations.”

In May, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that some unspecified foreign entities were “collaborating with domestic smugglers” to bypass export restrictions, declaring that halting such activities was essential for national security. The ministry did not respond to Reuters‘ questions regarding the shift in trade flows since December. The US Department of Commerce, Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce, and Mexico’s Ministry of Economy also did not respond to similar inquiries.

US law does not prohibit American buyers from purchasing antimony, gallium, or germanium of Chinese origin. Chinese firms are permitted to ship these minerals to countries other than the US if they possess the necessary licenses.

Levi Parker, CEO and founder of the US-based company Gallant Metals, told Reuters that he sources approximately 200 kg of gallium from China each month. He declined to identify the parties involved, citing potential repercussions. The process begins with purchasing agents in China who procure the materials from manufacturers. A shipping company then relabels the packages as iron, zinc, or art supplies and routes them through another Asian country.

Parker noted that these workarounds are neither perfect nor cheap. He explained that he would like to import 500 kg regularly, but larger shipments risk scrutiny, prompting Chinese logistics firms to be “very careful” due to the associated risks.

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BlackRock halts work on Ukraine reconstruction fund amid Trump uncertainty

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US-based BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, has reportedly halted its efforts to find investors for a planned reconstruction fund for Ukraine.

According to a report by Bloomberg that cited sources familiar with the matter, the decision is driven by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.

The fund was scheduled to be unveiled at a conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction on July 10-11, an event attended by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sources indicated that the initiative was close to securing initial support from entities linked to the governments of Germany, Italy, and Poland.

However, with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House in January, BlackRock has decided to temporarily suspend its discussions with institutional investors, citing uncertainty about future support for Ukraine.

Alternative plan from France

Bloomberg has also learned that France is now developing an alternative plan, which includes creating a new fund to replace the initiative that BlackRock has suspended. The effectiveness of this new plan without US participation, however, remains a significant question.

A BlackRock representative stated that the company completed its pro bono advisory work for the Ukraine project in 2024 and currently has “no active commitments” to the Ukrainian government.

“The only discussions that influence BlackRock’s decisions are those the firm has with its clients,” the representative emphasized.

The fund’s $15 billion target

BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, who was previously involved in the negotiations, had announced plans to attract at least $500 million from governments, international development banks, and other public donors, along with approximately $2 billion from private investors.

According to Hildebrand, uniting investors under a single consortium would have enabled the direction of at least $15 billion in equity and debt investments toward Ukraine’s reconstruction.

The World Bank estimates that the total cost for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction exceeds €500 billion. Rebuilding the country’s port infrastructure alone is projected to require at least €1 billion.

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